1808号超强台风“玛莉亚”(10W.Maria) - 七上罕见爆发台,远洋西进兩度C5,宫古岛实测945.7百帕,11日09:10登陆福建连江,闽浙沿海飙出17級阵风 - JTWC:140KT

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颱風巨爵
2018-06-26 03:43
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楼主#
維基百科路徑圖

图片:Maria_2018_track.jpg


編擾資訊

WP, 91, 2018062518,   , BEST,   0, 100N, 1700E,  15,    0, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  ,

图片:20180625.1930.himawari-8.vis.91W.INVEST.15kts.1004mb.10N.170E.100pc.jpg

[颱風巨爵于2018-09-06 16:38编辑了帖子]
喜欢5 评分3
山雨欲來風滿樓。
【特輯】 淺談JTWC和預報理由
红豆棒冰冰
2018-06-26 22:01
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1楼#
GFS 2018062606z报出撞台登闽路径

图片:gfs_z500_mslp_wpac_fh0-384.gif

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红豆棒冰冰
2018-06-28 02:40
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2楼#
TPPN11 PGTW 271818
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91W (N OF KWAJALEIN)
B. 27/1750Z
C. 14.05N
D. 165.18E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T1.0/1.0
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN SHEARED 80NM
FROM LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE WITH DT YIELDING
A 1.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

   LEMBKE

图片:swir_lalo-animated.gif

[颱風巨爵于2018-06-28 03:00编辑了帖子]
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炎煌深沉
2018-06-28 07:26
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 (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
14.3N 165.4E, APPROXIMATELY 1210 NM EAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK EXPOSED
LLCC DISPLACED FROM PERSISTENT CONVECTION BY SHEAR. A 271729Z MHS
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF TURNING WITH FLARING
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE EAST. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
ESE OF A TUTT CELL, ALLOWING FOR EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE
SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-30
KNOTS) WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-29 CELSIUS). GLOBAL
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY NOT SHOWING MUCH DEVELOPMENT, THOUGH SOME DO
MAINTAIN A CLOSED OFF CIRCULATION AT TIMES, AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TO
THE WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

图片:abpwsair.jpg

[炎煌深沉于2018-06-28 07:47编辑了帖子]
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327
2018-06-29 14:00
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4楼#
JTWC:REMAINS LOW
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.0N 164.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 162.1E, APPROXIMATELY
449 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A POORLY ORGANIZED, ELONGATED LLC ASSOCIATED WITH
INTERMITTENT FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE EAST. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE EASTWARD OUTFLOW BEING LIMITED BY A BROAD
UL ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH. VWS IS MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) WITH THE
LLC UNDER A SHARP VWS GRADIENT INCREASING TO THE NORTH. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING LITTLE TO NO DEVELOPMENT,
MAINTAINING THE WAVE-LIKE FEATURE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

图片:290500abpwsair.jpg

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renzhetegong
2018-07-01 01:01
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5楼#

图片:QQ图片20180701004738.png

图片:QQ图片20180701004743.png


GFS 30日12Z报巅峰890mb,后期撞台入闽。
06Z报认为登陆浙东
本人帖子若有错误请编辑修正
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hnwfnhee
2018-07-01 05:41
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6楼#
ec报登陆吕宋岛,时间还早,看看就好

图片:ecmwf_mslp_uv850_wpac_8.png

图片:ecmwf_mslp_uv850_wpac_11.png

[颱風巨爵于2018-07-01 12:13编辑了帖子]
来自温岭偏僻农村的野夫
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禾愛糖
2018-07-01 09:27
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7楼#
hnwfnhee锛歟c报登陆吕宋岛,时间还早,看看就好鍥炲埌鍘熷笘
間已經不早,前幾天一直預報都登呂宋,只是強度很弱
Practice makes perfect.
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不知道要起什么名字的小宇
2018-07-01 11:44
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8楼#

图片:18070221.png


JMA两天后的预报天气图上出现了LPA
这个还能改的吗?
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327
2018-07-01 14:14
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9楼#
JTWC:REMAINS LOW
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.0N
156.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 151.7E, APPROXIMATELY 145 NM NORTH
OF FANANU ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
FLARING CONVECTION OVER AND TO THE EAST OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS WEAK
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION REMAIN
WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
CURRENTLY SHOWING LITTLE TO NO DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEAR TERM,
MAINTAINING THE WEAK CIRCULATION FOR SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE DEVELOPING
IN THE LATER TAUS, BEYOND TAU 72.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

图片:010530abpwsair.jpg

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