向风群岛以东一级飓风“贝丽尔”(02L.Beryl) - 逆境自强,开出2公里极端针眼,超迷你飓风 - NHC:70KT

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颱風巨爵
2018-07-04 05:17
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楼主#
95L INVEST 180703 1800   9.0N   30.5W ATL   25  1010

图片:20180703.2057.f17.x.geoir.95LINVEST.25kts-1010mb-90N-305W.060pc.jpg


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2. A vigorous tropical wave is producing a concentrated area of
showers and thunderstorms several hundred miles southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands.  Environmental conditions are forecast to be
somewhat conducive for gradual development of this disturbance over
the next few days while it moves westward to west-northwestward at
15 to 20 mph. By the weekend, however, conditions are expected to
become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
[颱風巨爵于2018-07-16 17:52编辑了帖子]
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东太的远行者 renzhe...
Society is dead, long live society!
是誰令青山也變,變了俗氣的嘴臉?又是誰令碧海也變,變作濁流滔天?
【特輯】 淺談JTWC和預報理由
颱風巨爵
2018-07-04 23:50
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1楼#
TXNT26 KNES 041413
TCSNTL
CCA
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (95L)
B.  04/1145Z
C.  10.2N
D.  34.8W
E.  THREE/GOES-E
F.  T2.0/2.0/D1.5/24HRS
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...CORRECTED FOR INTENSITY BASED ON REANALYSIS. SYSTEM IS
CHARACTERIZED BY CIRCULAR, TIGHTLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES AND A CENTER
NEAR OR UNDER A SMALL COLD OVERCAST. THIS RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.0 USING
THE SHEAR PATTERN. MET OF 1.5 WAS ADJUSTED UP WHEN DERIVING THE PT OF
2.0. FT IS BASED ON PT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE PRECISE CENTER LOCATION.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL

...TURK

图片:goes16_vis_95L_201807041150.jpg

图片:goes16_ir-dvorak_95L_201807041151.jpg

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NOUS42 KNHC 041516
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT WED 04 JULY 2018
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z JULY 2018
         TCPOD NUMBER.....18-041

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
    3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK:  POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST INTO CENTRAL
       ATLANTIC SYSTEM NEAR 14.0N 51.0W FOR 07/1800Z.
Society is dead, long live society!
是誰令青山也變,變了俗氣的嘴臉?又是誰令碧海也變,變作濁流滔天?
【特輯】 淺談JTWC和預報理由
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红豆棒冰冰
2018-07-05 07:58
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2楼#
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Jul 4 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles
to the south and southwest of Bermuda are associated with a weak
trough of low pressure.  Environmental conditions appear conducive
for some development of this system, and a tropical depression
could form before the end of the week while the system moves
west-northwestward and then northward between Bermuda and the east
coast of the United States.  The disturbance is then forecast to
interact with a frontal system on Sunday, which would limit any
additional development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

2. Shower activity associated with a small area of low pressure and a
tropical wave located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands continues to become better organized.  A tropical
depression is likely to form during the next day or two while the
system moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the
tropical Atlantic Ocean.  By the weekend, however, upper-level winds
are expected to become less conducive for development when the
system approaches the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Beven

图片:two_atl_2d0.png


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[红豆棒冰冰于2018-07-05 07:59编辑了帖子]
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327
2018-07-05 09:30
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TCFA

图片:al952018.20180705011055.gif

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刚打酱油回来
2018-07-05 12:07
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4楼#
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTNT23 KNGU 050000
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.2N 35.8W TO 11.1N 40.5W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 050000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.3N 36.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES
TO BECOME BETTER ORGANZIED. EARLIER SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND
MICROWAVE IMAGES ALSO INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION IS
BETTER DERIVED. IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS
LIKELY TO FORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
060000Z.//
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933954
2018-07-05 22:17
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5楼#
 NHC will initiate advisories at 11 AM AST/EDT on Tropical Depression Two located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.
升02L
 AL, 02, 2018070512,   , BEST,   0, 101N,  408W,  30, 1009, TD,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1012,  120,  40,  40,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,        TWO, M,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 010, TRANSITIONED, alA52018 to al022018,


Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022018
1100 AM AST Thu Jul 05 2018

For the past day or so, we've been monitoring a small area of low
pressure associated with a tropical wave over the tropical Atlantic
Ocean.  Despite a noticeable mid-level rotation in the convective
clouds, it had not been conclusive whether or not the system had a
closed circulation at the surface with a well-defined center.
However, the system appears more distinct and independent from the
Intertropical Convergence Zone as compared to yesterday, and
scatterometer data appears conclusive enough to support a closed,
yet tiny circulation.  We are now confident enough that the system
meets the criteria of a tropical cyclone, and have initiated
advisories on Tropical Depression Two with maximum winds of 30 kt,
which is supported by Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB.

The depression will be located in a relatively low-shear environment
for the next 3 days or so.  However, the small cyclone is surrounded
by abundant dry air, and the system will be moving over marginally
warm waters during the next few days, which could both limit
intensification.  The NHC official forecast allows for some slight
strengthening and most closely follows the HFIP Corrected Consensus
guidance (HCCA), showing the depression becoming a tropical storm
within the next 24 hours.  Between 72 and 96 hours, the system is
expected to begin encountering strong westerly shear and also
accelerate, both of which should cause it to degenerate into an open
wave east of the Lesser Antilles.

Even though the center has been difficult to locate, the initial
motion is estimated to be westward, or 270/14 kt.  The depression is
located to the south of a sprawling subtropical ridge, although a
break in the ridge over the central Atlantic may cause the system to
slow down a bit during the next 36 hours.  After that time, the
cyclone is likely to speed up again when it becomes situated to the
south of a new mid-level high.  The track guidance is in generally
good agreement, and the NHC official forecast is close to the TVCX
multi-model consensus and the HCCA guidance.

Even though the cyclone is expected to dissipate east of the Lesser
Antilles early next week, the remnant tropical wave will continue
moving quickly westward, likely bringing locally heavy rains and
gusty winds to portions of the Leeward Islands on Sunday and Monday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/1500Z 10.2N  41.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  06/0000Z 10.7N  43.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  06/1200Z 11.4N  45.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  07/0000Z 12.1N  47.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  07/1200Z 12.9N  49.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  08/1200Z 14.7N  56.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  09/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

图片:144424_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

[颱風巨爵于2018-07-06 03:17编辑了帖子]
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颱風巨爵
2018-07-06 02:58
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图片:20180705.1724.f15.85rgb.02L.TWO.30kts.1009mb.10.1N.40.8W.085pc.jpg

图片:20180705.1724.f15.x.85hw.02LTWO.30kts-1009mb-101N-408W.088pc.jpg

图片:20180705.1724.f15.x.85h_1deg.02LTWO.30kts-1009mb-101N-408W.088pc.jpg



Tropical Storm Beryl Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022018
230 PM AST Thu Jul 05 2018

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM BERYL...

Satellite imagery indicates that the tropical depression has
strengthened and is now Tropical Storm Beryl.  Maximum sustained
winds are estimated to be 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.  An
updated intensity forecast will be provided with the 500 PM AST
(2100 UTC) advisory.

SUMMARY OF 230 PM AST...1830 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.3N 42.3W
ABOUT 1330 MI...2140 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brennan/Berg

TXNT26 KNES 051829
TCSNTL
CCA
A.  02L (NONAME)
B.  05/1745Z
C.  10.2N
D.  42.2W
E.  THREE/GOES-E
F.  T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...CORRECTED FOR INTENSITY. CONVECTION WRAPS .7 ON LOG10
SPIRAL FOR A DT OF 3.0. MET=2.5 AND PT=3.0.  FT IS BASED ON DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL

...KIM

图片:goes16_vis_02L_201807051750.jpg

图片:goes16_ir-dvorak_02L_201807051750.jpg

图片:goes16_ir_02L_201807051750.jpg

图片:goes16_truecolor_02L_201807051750.jpg

[颱風巨爵于2018-07-06 03:12编辑了帖子]
Society is dead, long live society!
是誰令青山也變,變了俗氣的嘴臉?又是誰令碧海也變,變作濁流滔天?
【特輯】 淺談JTWC和預報理由
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台风大师
2018-07-06 03:07
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7楼#
AL, 02, 2018070518,   , BEST,   0, 103N,  423W,  45, 1004, TS,  34, NEQ,   30,    0,    0,   30, 1012,   90,  30,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,      BERYL, M,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 010,

Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022018
500 PM AST Thu Jul 05 2018

Beryl has been a bit of a surprise today, which is not uncommon for
tiny tropical cyclones such as itself.  A 1724 UTC SSMI microwave
pass and a 1853 UTC SSMI/S pass both revealed that the cyclone had
developed a well-defined 5 nmi-wide mid-level eye, and a dimple has
been apparent in visible satellite imagery.  It's usually difficult
to get a good handle on the intensity of these types of cyclones
given their small size, but data-T numbers from TAFB and SAB are a
consensus T3.0.  The initial intensity is therefore raised to 45 kt,
but there is a lot of uncertainty in this estimate.

If the initial intensity is uncertain, the future intensity is even
more of a quandary.  Despite being surrounded by abundant dry air,
Beryl has apparently been able to isolate itself and possibly
moisten the near-storm environment while located in an area of low
shear.  Since the shear is expected to remain quite low for the next
36 hours or so, and small cyclones like Beryl often have a tendency
to strengthen quickly over a short period of time, continued
intensification appears likely for the next day or so.  The updated
NHC intensity forecast most closely follows the statistical-
dynamical guidance, which lies at the upper end of the guidance
envelope, and brings Beryl to hurricane strength within 36 hours.
After that time, increasing westerly shear, partially due to Beryl
accelerating toward the west, is expected to cause weakening.  In
addition, every global model shows the cyclone opening up into a
tropical wave in 72-96 hours, which is what the NHC forecast
continues to depict.  It cannot be stressed enough, however, that
this is a low confidence forecast.

The one stable part of the forecast is Beryl's future track.  The
new guidance has not changed much from the previous forecast cycle,
and it continues to show Beryl slowing down a bit during the next 24
hours, followed by a west-northwestward acceleration in 48-72 hours
due to a strengthening ridge to the north.  The updated NHC track
forecast is just a bit south of the previous one and is closest to
the HCCA and Florida State Superensemble guidance.

Even though Beryl is expected to dissipate just east of the Lesser
Antilles early next week, the remnant tropical wave will continue
moving quickly westward and will likely bring locally heavy
rains and gusty winds to portions of the Leeward Islands on Sunday
and Monday.

Key Messages:

1. Due to its very small size, there is greater-than-usual
uncertainty in the analysis of Beryl's current intensity.
Confidence in the official intensity forecast is also much lower
than normal.  Rapid changes in intensity, both up and down, that are
difficult to predict are possible during the next couple of days.

2. While Beryl is still expected to dissipate as a tropical cyclone
by Monday before reaching the Lesser Antilles, there will likely
be some rain and wind impacts on those islands early next week.
Residents there should monitor products from their local weather
office for more information.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/2100Z 10.3N  42.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  06/0600Z 10.8N  44.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  06/1800Z 11.4N  46.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  07/0600Z 12.1N  48.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  07/1800Z 13.0N  51.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  08/1800Z 14.5N  58.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

图片:下載.png

[颱風巨爵于2018-07-06 11:22编辑了帖子]
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禾愛糖
2018-07-06 15:49
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8楼#
AL, 02, 2018070606, , BEST, 0, 105N, 446W, 65, 995
已經C1. 這傢伙子彈颱爆發得很快


Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022018
500 AM AST Fri Jul 06 2018

Deep convection associated with the tiny tropical cyclone has
continued to become better organized overnight.  An earlier AMSR2
microwave overpass showed a well-defined mid-level eye and a
pinhole eye has been apparent in the various GOES-16 satellite
channels since shortly after 0600 UTC and was most evident around
0715 UTC.  Although the clarity of the eye has waxed and waned since
that time, there is enough convective organization to increase the
initial intensity to 65 kt, making Beryl the first hurricane of the
2018 Atlantic hurricane season.

The cyclone has another 18-24 hour within very low vertical wind
shear conditions and over SSTS of 26-27 degrees Celsius.  These
favorable conditions suggest that the tiny hurricane is likely to
intensify further today.  The NHC intensity forecast calls for
additional strengthening and is at the upper-end of the intensity
guidance, but I would not be too surprised if the compact hurricane
reaches a slightly higher peak intensity than indicated below. By
36 hours, the shear is forecast to increase to more than 15 kt, and
it is expected to be greater than 20 kt shortly after that time.
This should cause the very small tropical cyclone to quickly
weaken, however as mentioned in the Key Messages below there is
greater uncertainty than usual regarding Beryl's intensity
forecast.  Although the updated NHC forecast shows Beryl
reaching the Lesser Antilles as a tropical storm it is highly
possible that the system will have degenerated into an open trough
by that time. Regardless of the system's status at 72 h, it is
likely to bring strong gusty winds and locally heavy rains to
portions of the Lesser Antilles Sunday and Monday.

The initial motion estimate remains 275/12 kt.  The track guidance
is in good agreement taking Beryl west-northwestward to the
south of a deep-layer ridge over the central Atlantic.  There
has been little overall change in the latest dynamical guidance and
the new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory and
lies along the southern edge of the guidance envelope closest to
the latest ECMWF and HFIP correct consensus models.

Key Messages:

1. Due to its very small size, there is greater-than-usual
uncertainty in the analysis of Beryl's current intensity. Confidence
in the official intensity forecast is also much lower than normal.
Rapid changes in intensity, both up and down, that are difficult to
predict are possible during the next couple of days.

2. While Beryl is still to forecast to quickly weaken or dissipate
as a tropical cyclone on Monday before reaching the Lesser Antilles,
there will likely be some rain and wind impacts on those islands
early next week. Residents there should monitor products from their
local weather office for more information.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0900Z 10.6N  45.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  06/1800Z 11.0N  46.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  07/0600Z 11.7N  48.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  07/1800Z 12.7N  51.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  08/0600Z 13.6N  54.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  09/0600Z 15.4N  61.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

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图片:20180706.0424.gw1.89hbt.02L.BERYL.65kts.995mb.10.5N.44.6W.86pc.jpg

图片:下載.png

[颱風巨爵于2018-07-07 03:01编辑了帖子]
Practice makes perfect.
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1420鹦鹉
2018-07-06 23:44
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9楼#

图片:IMG_7600.JPG


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测量了一下,这货直径才70千米,风眼直径仅2千米还一度有过LG+OW
[1420鹦鹉于2018-07-06 23:46编辑了帖子]
奔梦之路虽遥远而曲折,但要坚信,你永不孤行。信念将驱走眼前的黑暗,照亮未知的远方!
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