北卡罗来纳州以东二级飓风“克里斯”(03L.Chris) - NHC:90KT

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红豆棒冰冰
2018-07-06 00:16
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AL, 96, 2018070506,   , BEST,   0, 308N,  684W,  20,    0, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0, GENESIS009,  ,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 009, SPAWNINVEST, al712018 to al962018,
AL, 96, 2018070512,   , BEST,   0, 307N,  697W,  20, 1021, LO,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1022,  100,  50,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 009,

图片:QQ图片20180706010417.jpg

[颱風巨爵于2018-07-12 21:08编辑了帖子]
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933954
红豆棒冰冰
2018-07-06 00:56
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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a weak trough of low
pressure located a few hundred miles southwest of Bermuda remain
disorganized.  Environmental conditions are still conducive for
some development before the end of the week while the system moves
west-northwestward and then northward between Bermuda and the east
coast of the United States.  The disturbance is then forecast to
interact with a frontal system on Sunday, which should limit any
additional development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

2. Satellite images indicate that the shower activity associated with a
small area of low pressure and a tropical wave located between the
Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles remains well organized,
and a tropical depression could form at any time.  This disturbance
is forecast to move westward or west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph
over the tropical Atlantic Ocean.  However, in a few days,
upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable, and the system
is expected to degenerate into a trough of low pressure before it
reaches the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Berg

图片:two_atl_2d0.png


图片:two_atl_2d1.png


图片:two_atl_5d0.png


图片:two_atl_5d1.png

[红豆棒冰冰于2018-07-06 00:58编辑了帖子]
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台风大师
2018-07-07 03:55
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AL, 03, 2018070618,   , BEST,   0, 320N,  737W,  25, 1016, TD,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1020,  120,  50,  35,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,      THREE, M,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 009, TRANSITIONED, alA62018 to al032018,
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台风大师
2018-07-07 04:23
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Special Message from NHC Issued 6 Jul 2018 20:10 UTC  
NHC will initiate advisories at 5 PM EDT on Tropical Depression Three located a couple hundred miles southeast of the North Carolina coast.
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933954
2018-07-07 07:54
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台风大师锛欰L, 03, 2018070618,   , BEST,   0, 320N,  737W,  25, 1016, TD,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1020,  120,  50,  35,  ...鍥炲埌鍘熷笘
其实这个和楼下那个Special Message可以放在同一楼
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约瑟但以理
2018-07-07 10:05
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风场15节还升格?
家住宝山吴淞
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iam最小值
2018-07-07 10:30
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Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032018
500 PM EDT Fri Jul 06 2018

The area of low pressure located a few hundred miles southeast of
the North Carolina coast has developed enough deep convection
with a well-defined circulation to be classified as a tropical
depression.  This is supported by a Dvorak T-number of 2.0 from
TAFB, and an earlier ASCAT pass with 25-kt winds, which is the
initial intensity assigned to the depression.  Given that the system
is moving over warm waters and in a low-shear environment, gradual
strengthening is indicated, and the NHC forecast shows the
depression becoming a tropical storm on Saturday.  Additional
intensification could occur by the end of the forecast period when
the cyclone moves northeastward away from the U.S coast and
interacts with a mid-level trough. The intensity forecast is very
close to the SHIPS model and the Corrected Consensus HCCA.

The depression is moving toward the north-northwest or 335 degrees
at about 4 knots. The tropical cyclone is currently located on the
southwestern edge of the subtropical ridge, and this weak flow
pattern should keep the depression on the same slow track for the
next 24 hours or so.  After that time, the steering currents are
expected to collapse, and the cyclone should begin to meander for a
couple of days well off the coast of North Carolina.  Then a
mid-level trough is expected to approach from the west and force
the system on a northeastward track.

Most of the guidance suggests that the tropical-storm-force winds
associated with the cyclone will occur in the eastern quadrant
well away from the U.S. coast.  On this basis, no watches or
warnings are required for the U.S coast at this time, however,
interests along the North Carolina coast should monitor the
progress of this system.

Due to a technical issue, the wind speed probability values at land
locations in the wind speed probability text product are too high
and do not reflect reduced probabilities that are expected over
land.  The wind speed probability values provided in the graphics
on the NHC website at hurricanes.gov, and in the publicly
disseminated grid files do correctly reflect the reduced
probabilities over land.  As a result, users should refer to the NHC
website graphics and gridded products instead of the text product
for the most accurate wind speed probability values until this
problem is resolved.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/2100Z 32.2N  73.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  07/0600Z 32.9N  74.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  07/1800Z 33.7N  74.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  08/0600Z 34.0N  74.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  08/1800Z 34.0N  74.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  09/1800Z 33.5N  73.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  10/1800Z 33.5N  73.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  11/1800Z 36.5N  69.5W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

图片:204123_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

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Mitch
2018-07-08 18:00
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用户被禁言,该主题自动屏蔽!
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newshidai2004
2018-07-10 11:16
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飓风可期;
000
WTNT43 KNHC 100258
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Chris Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032018
1100 PM EDT Mon Jul 09 2018

Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Chris
has changed little in strength during the past several hours.  The
aircraft has reported maximum flight-level of 63 kt at 700 mb to
the southwest of the center, along with a somewhat-uncertain maximum
SFMR surface wind estimate of 61 kt.  The latest reported central
pressure is 995 mb.  Based on these, the initial intensity will be
held at a possibly generous 60 kt.  The aircraft also reported that
a partial eyewall of 20-30 n mi diameter has formed, but has not yet
been able to close off.

Chris has moved little since the last advisory, as it remains
trapped in a break in the subtropical ridge.  A large mid-latitude
trough is forming over eastern Canada and the northeastern
United States, and as this system develops southward it should
break down the ridge and steer Chris to the northeast after about
12 h, with an increasing forward speed expected thereafter as the
tropical cyclone enters the mid-latitude westerlies.  Chris should
pass east of the Canadian Maritimes in about 72 h, then pass near or
over southeastern Newfoundland between 72-96 h.  The track guidance
generally agrees with this scenario, although some spread remains
in the forecast forward speed.  The new forecast track is an update
of the previous forecast and lies near the various consensus models.

The sea surface temperature at NOAA buoy 41002, located 45 n mi
southwest of the center of Chris, has dropped to near 25C, and it is
possible that the temperatures are colder under the center.  This
ocean cooling, due to upwelling caused by the slow motion of the
storm, has likely slowed the intensification of Chris despite an
otherwise favorable environment and storm structure.  Significant
intensification now appears unlikely until the cyclone actually
starts moving.  Based on this and the forecast track, the new
intensity forecast will delay Chris' intensification into a
hurricane until the 18-24 h point.  After that, Chris should
strengthen until it moves north of the Gulf Stream and starts to
merge with a frontal system.  Extratropical transition is expected
to be complete by 72 h, with the extratropical low gradually
decaying as it moves across the north Atlantic.  The new intensity
forecast follows the overall trend of the intensity guidance except
during the first 12 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/0300Z 32.3N  74.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  10/1200Z 32.6N  73.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  11/0000Z 33.5N  72.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  11/1200Z 35.1N  70.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  12/0000Z 37.7N  66.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  13/0000Z 44.0N  59.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  14/0000Z 49.0N  47.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  15/0000Z 52.0N  31.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven
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newshidai2004
2018-07-11 07:28
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9楼#
升格一级飓风
BULLETIN
Hurricane Chris Advisory Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032018
500 PM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018

...CHRIS FINALLY BECOMES A HURRICANE WHILE MOVING AWAY FROM THE
UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.7N 72.4W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM ESE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES
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