北大西洋一级飓风“莱斯利”(13L.Leslie) - 洋中徘徊,二度转暖,东移达到主巅峰,转温登陆葡萄牙,菲盖拉-达福什阵风176.4km/h破全国纪录 - NHC:80KT

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9914dan
2018-09-23 01:43
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楼主#

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编扰资讯

90L INVEST 180922 1800 32.0N 44.7W ATL 30 1003

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2. A frontal non-tropical low pressure system is located about 1000
miles west-southwest of the Azores. Conditions are expected to
become conducive for this low to acquire subtropical or tropical
characteristics during the next day or so, and a subtropical or
tropical cyclone is likely to form by early next week while the low
meanders over the central Atlantic Ocean. For more information on
this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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I wanna reset.
POCKETBOX
2018-09-23 07:38
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1楼#
TCFA
WTNT23 KNGU 222100
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS OF 32.0N 44.5W WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 222100Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 44.5W. THE SYSTEM IS
QUASI-STATIONARY.
2. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. A NON-TROPICAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORMING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ABOUT 1000 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
CONDUCIVE FOR THE LOW TO ACUIRE SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS, AND A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LIKELY
TO FORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES VERY
LITTLE THROUGH TUESDAY.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 232100Z.//

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只有登上山顶,才能看到那边的风光。 -新的一天,新的开始-
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红豆棒冰冰
2018-09-23 14:16
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2楼#
NHC:60%/60%
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Sep 23 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Eleven, located several hundred miles east of the
Windward Islands, and on Tropical Storm Kirk, located several
hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.

1. A broad area of low pressure located about 300 miles south-southwest
of Bermuda continues to produce limited shower and thunderstorm
activity.  Although strong upper-level winds currently affecting the
system are expected to diminish later today and could allow for some
development during the next couple of days, the low will continue
to be embedded in a very dry environment while it moves westward
and west-northwestward at about 10 mph over the southwestern
Atlantic Ocean.  By Tuesday or Wednesday, upper-level winds are
forecast to strengthen again, likely limiting additional development
as the system turns northward and moves by the southeastern coast of
the United States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

2. The evolution of a complex weather system over the central Atlantic
Ocean could lead to two separate episodes of subtropical or
tropical development during the upcoming week.  First, a
non-tropical low pressure system currently located about 1000 miles
west-southwest of the Azores is producing gale-force winds with
some associated showers and thunderstorms.  Conditions appear
conducive for this system to acquire some subtropical or tropical
characteristics during the next day or so while meandering over the
central Atlantic Ocean, and the low could become a subtropical or
tropical cyclone before it is overtaken and absorbed by a cold front
late Tuesday or Wednesday.  Additional information on this system
can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

3. A second non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form
along the central Atlantic cold front by Wednesday several hundred
miles west of the Azores.  Conditions appear conducive for this
system to also acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics by
the latter part of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Public Advisories on Kirk are issued under WMO header WTNT32 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2. Forecast/Advisories on Kirk are
issued under WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMAT2.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Berg

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炎煌深沉
2018-09-23 20:11
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3楼#
NHC:70%/70%
2. The evolution of a complex weather system over the central Atlantic
Ocean could lead to two separate episodes of subtropical or
tropical development during the upcoming week.  First, a non-
tropical low pressure system currently located about 1000 miles
west-southwest of the Azores is producing gale-force winds with
some associated showers and thunderstorms.  Conditions appear
conducive for this system to acquire some subtropical or tropical
characteristics during the next day or so while meandering over the
central Atlantic Ocean, and the low could become a subtropical or
tropical cyclone before it is overtaken and absorbed by a cold front
late Tuesday or Wednesday.  Additional information on this system
can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

图片:two_atl_2d2.png

图片:two_atl_5d2.png

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红豆棒冰冰
2018-09-24 01:33
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4楼#
NHC升格副热带风暴
AL, 13, 2018092312,   , BEST,   0, 331N,  462W,  35, 1002, SS,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,  200, 1012,  320, 150,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     LESLIE, M,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 030, TRANSITIONED, alC02018 to al132018,

251
WTNT43 KNHC 231432
TCDAT3

Subtropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 23 2018

The development of a subtropical storm that NHC and the global
models have been advertising for the past several days has
materialized, and based on satellite intensity classification from
TAFB and earlier ASCAT data, advisories on Subtropical Storm Leslie
have been initiated.

Leslie is still embedded within an upper-level low and strong winds
are removed from the center.  However, there is a chance as usual
that the subtropical cyclone could develop additional convection
near the center, and the transition to a tropical system during the
next day or so is not out of the question.  Global models do
indicate that a new low is going to form north of Leslie, and that
the subtropical cyclone will become absorbed by the new larger low.
This is the scenario depicted by NHC at this time.

Leslie is embedded within very light steering currents, and most
likely the cyclone will be meandering today and tomorrow.  After
that time, with the development of the new low to the north, Leslie
will likely move east until it becomes absorbed.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/1500Z 33.0N  46.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  24/0000Z 33.2N  47.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  24/1200Z 33.0N  47.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  25/0000Z 33.0N  46.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  25/1200Z 33.0N  45.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  26/1200Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila

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红豆棒冰冰
2018-09-24 15:07
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5楼#
838
WTNT43 KNHC 232036
TCDAT3

Subtropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018
500 PM AST Sun Sep 23 2018

Leslie's cloud pattern has not become any better organized, nor do
we have any data to support a wind increase. The initial intensity
is then kept at 35 kt.  The evolution of Leslie is very complex and
difficult to forecast. There is a possibility that Leslie will be
absorbed by a larger low that is forecast to form nearby, or that
Leslie could maintain its identity while rotating around the low. At
this time NHC will maintain continuity and forecasts Leslie to be
absorbed by the large low by 72 hours. No significant change in
intensity or structure is anticipated until then.

Leslie continues to be embedded within very light steering currents,
and most likely the cyclone will merely meander today and
tomorrow. After that time, with the development of the new low to
the north, Leslie will likely be steered eastward until it is
absorbed. The track forecast is highly uncertain given the complex
flow pattern surrounding the subtropical cyclone.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/2100Z 33.5N  47.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  24/0600Z 33.4N  47.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  24/1800Z 33.2N  48.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  25/0600Z 33.2N  46.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  25/1800Z 33.0N  44.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

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255
WTNT43 KNHC 240244
TCDAT3

Subtropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 23 2018

There has been little change in the organization of the subtropical
cyclone over the past several hours.  Patches of deep convection
continue to develop over the southeastern portion of the circulation
but there is a lack of convective banding elsewhere. The initial
intensity remains 35 kt, which is based on a partial ASCAT pass that
detected 25-30 kt winds over the northwestern portion of the storm
this evening.  Leslie is not forecast to strengthen over the next
day or so due to dry air and moderate vertical shear.  By 48 hours,
some increase in wind is predicted as Leslie interacts with an
approaching baroclinic zone.

Leslie jogged west-southwestward for a few hours this evening, but
has since turned southwestward and slowed down.  The system is
forecast to move little over the next 24 hours, then begin a faster
eastward motion on Monday night and Tuesday as a mid-latitude trough
and associated cold front digs southeastward over the central
Atlantic. The global models indicate that the front will overtake
Leslie in about 48 hours, and the NHC forecast calls for the system
to become an extratropical low at that time.  The evolution of the
system becomes even more complex after that, as the GFS shows Leslie
being absorbed by a new non-tropical low pressure area to the north,
while some of other global models maintain post-tropical Leslie as
the primary low pressure area.  For now, the NHC forecast maintains
continuity with the previous advisories and calls for the system to
merge with the larger front/low by 72 h, but there is a high level
of uncertainty in the exact evolution and structure of the system.
Regardless of the details of the evolution, a large non-tropical
low pressure area with gale- to storm-force winds is expected to be
over the east-central Atlantic later this week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0300Z 33.3N  48.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  24/1200Z 33.1N  48.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  25/0000Z 33.1N  47.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  25/1200Z 32.9N  46.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  26/0000Z 33.1N  43.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  27/0000Z...MERGED WITH FRONT AND LARGER LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

图片:024551_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

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红豆棒冰冰
2018-09-24 17:33
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6楼#
385
WTNT43 KNHC 240832
TCDAT3

Subtropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018
500 AM AST Mon Sep 24 2018

Leslie has changed little overnight.  The large subtropical cyclone
continues to produce patches of deep convection, mostly to the south
and east of the center.  The initial intensity is again held at 35
kt, which is near the upper end of the satellite intensity
estimates.

The subtropical storm is moving southward at 5 kt.  The steering
currents around Leslie are expected to collapse later today and
little overall motion is forecast during the next 12-18 hours.
After that time, a cold front is expected to approach the system,
and that should cause Leslie to move eastward tonight and Tuesday.
The front is expected to merge with Leslie by Tuesday night, causing
it to become extratropical.  While little change in intensity is
expected during the next day or so, due to dry air and moderate
shear, some strengthening as an extratropical low is likely due to
baroclinic forcing.  In fact, after becoming extratropical, the
models show Leslie merging with another frontal low to its north,
leading to the formation of a powerful slow-moving non-tropical low
with gale- or storm-force winds over the central Atlantic later this
week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0900Z 32.6N  48.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  24/1800Z 32.6N  48.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  25/0600Z 32.6N  46.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  25/1800Z 32.5N  44.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  26/0600Z 32.7N  42.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  27/0600Z...MERGED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

图片:083327_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

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红豆棒冰冰
2018-09-24 23:24
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7楼#
138
WTNT43 KNHC 241434
TCDAT3

Subtropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 24 2018

Conventional satellite imagery shows little change in Leslie's
cloud pattern during the past several hours with the exception of a
few new isolated thunderstorms developing near the surface center.
Accordingly, the initial intensity for this advisory is kept at 35
kt.  The statistical intensity guidance and the large-scale models
show Leslie commencing a strengthening trend in 24 hours as a
mid-latitude baroclinic system digs southeastward toward the
cyclone.  Some of the models also indicate that Leslie, after
completing an extratropical transition in around 48 hours, will
deepen and generate a large area of gale force winds, particularly
in the northwest quadrant.  The NHC intensity forecast reflects this
scenario and is just below the IVCN intensity consensus.

The initial motion is estimated to be an eastward drift, or 090/4 kt
within the increasing mid-level westerly steering flow.  A turn to
the east-northeast is forecast as an approaching mid-latitude
trough and associated cold front approaches from the northwest over
the central Atlantic.  The deterministic guidance indicate that the
aforementioned baroclinic system will overtake Leslie near the 48
hour period, and influence a transition to a non-tropical low
pressure system.  Subsequently, the GFS and the European models
still show extratropical Leslie as the primary system and deepening
with time.  For now, the official forecast will indicate a merging
scenario, but succeeding advisories may include extratropical low
forecast points through day 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/1500Z 32.5N  48.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  25/0000Z 32.5N  47.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  25/1200Z 32.4N  45.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  26/0000Z 32.3N  42.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  26/1200Z 33.6N  39.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  27/1200Z...MERGED WITH FRONT AND LARGER LOW

$$
Forecaster Roberts

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phoonfan
2018-09-25 00:47
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8楼#
这将是个很有趣的系统,数值预报看,系统先是被一道锋面或另一个温带气旋中心吸收,结合成一个更强大的温带气旋,然后该温带气旋也南落变性并可能成为一股较强的飓风,在异常阻高的引导下高纬西行。
本人已于2006年注册,原名姓"摧"
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phoonfan
2018-09-25 00:52
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9楼#
一个悬念将是前后两次副热带/热带气旋过程将是分开编号还是连续编号。
本人已于2006年注册,原名姓"摧"
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