阿拉伯海西部特强气旋风暴“卢班”(ARB 04/05A.Luban) - 北印双VSCS共存,登陆也门东部 - IMD:75KT JTWC:75KT CMA:35m/s

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9914dan
2018-10-04 10:26
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楼主#
99A INVEST 181004 0000 6.3N 70.2E IO 15 0

图片:20181004.0130.msg-1.ir.99A.INVEST.15kts.NAmb.6.3N.70.2E.100pc.jpg

[9914dan于2018-10-18 01:50编辑了帖子]
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lyanna
I wanna reset.
327
2018-10-04 11:11
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1楼#
ECMWF支持发展,预报登陆阿曼
GFS强烈看好,12Z预报擦过阿曼登陆巴基斯坦,18Z预报登陆巴基斯坦

图片:gfs_pres_wind_india_36.png

[327于2018-10-04 11:30编辑了帖子]

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meow
2018-10-04 18:12
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2楼#
似乎也是高空冷涡激发出的,IMD看好发展成气旋风暴并趋近阿曼。

AN UPPER AIR CYCLONIC CIRCULATION LAY OVER SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA (AS) AND ADJOINING LAKSHADWEEP & MALDIVES AREA EXTENDING UPTO MID-TROPOSPHERIC LEVELS AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY, THE 4TH OCTOBER 2018. UNDER IT’S INFLUENCE, AN LPA IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST AS BY TOMORROW, THE 5TH OCTOBER 2018. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO CONCENTRATE INTO A DEPRESSION AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS DURING SUBSEQUENT 36 HOURS. IT IS ALSO VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY INTO A CYCLONIC STORM SUBSEQUENTLY AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS OMAN COAST.

PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS DURING NEXT 120 HRS:
 
24 HOURS 24-48 HOURS 48-72 HOURS 72-96 HOURS 96-120 HOURS
NIL NIL MODERATE HIGH HIGH
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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炎煌深沉
2018-10-05 07:45
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3楼#
JTWC:LOW
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99A) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.8N
70.6E, APPROXIMATELY 900 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 041342Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE
DEPICT WEAK, FRAGMENTED CONVECTION WITH AN ELONGATED AND ILL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WITH FAVORABLE RADIAL OUTFLOW THAT IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO
THE CONVECTION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS) IN THE
SURROUNDING AREA REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE RAPID DEVELOPMENT WITH A NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY OVER THE
NEXT 48-96 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

图片:abpwsair.jpg

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renzhetegong
2018-10-05 12:39
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图片:gfs_mslp_wind_india_29.png


图片:icon_mslp_wind_india_55.png

图片:icon_mslp_wind_india_61-1.png


数值预报看好强度
[renzhetegong于2018-10-05 12:43编辑了帖子]
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feidele
2018-10-05 16:23
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5楼#
我感觉不会译成鲁班,这也太尴尬了吧
费德勒 伟大的运动员
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红豆棒冰冰
2018-10-06 03:00
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JTWC:UPGRADED TO MEDIUM
ABIO10 PGTW 051800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/051800Z-061800ZOCT2018//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.8N 70.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 70.2E, APPROXIMATELY 1113
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 051617Z MHS METOP-A 89GHZ IMAGE SHOW A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED, SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WITH FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. A RECENT ASCAT PASS REVEALS
TROUGHING WITH AN AREA OF STRONGER WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS) IN THE SURROUNDING AREA REMAIN
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE DEVELOPMENT WITH A
NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 4.7S 71.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.4S 71.7E, APPROXIMATELY 170
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 051259Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOW A
DISORGANIZED, BROAD, ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO DEPICT HIGH
(30-40 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. A
RECENT ASCAT PASS REVEALS BROAD TROUGHING WITH WEAK WINDS. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS) IN THE SURROUNDING AREA REMAIN
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE POTENTIAL WEAK
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
NNNN

图片:abpwsair.jpg


图片:20181005.1800.msg1.x.ir1km_bw.99AINVEST.20kts-1004mb-113N-697E.100pc.jpg

[9914dan于2018-10-08 22:56编辑了帖子]
欢迎加入百度百科地理组台风编辑小组,QQ群号码:692323623
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炎煌深沉
2018-10-06 16:05
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7楼#
JTWC:TCFA
WTIO21 PGTW 060830
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.8N 67.7E TO 13.2N 61.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 060600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.3N 66.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.3N
70.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 66.9E, APPROXIMATELY 822 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC. THE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS OVERALL FAVORABLE, WITH ADEQUATE UL
DIVERGENCE ENABLED BY FORMATIVE DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW. VWS IS LOW-
MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) OVER THE SYSTEM CENTER WITH HIGHER VALUES TO
THE WEST. DESPITE THESE HIGHER SHEAR VALUES, VERTICAL ALIGNMENT
BETWEEN THE MID- AND LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS REMAINS GOOD. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM (27-29 CELSIUS) IN THE ARABIAN SEA
AND WILL SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN SOLID
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT TRACKS WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARDS
THE ARABIAN PENINSULA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
070830Z.//
NNNN

图片:io9918.gif

图片:99A_060830sair.jpg

[炎煌深沉于2018-10-06 16:14编辑了帖子]
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Elite
2018-10-06 18:47
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8楼#
欧中指会进入亚丁湾登陆也门
GFS认为登陆阿曼,五月风暴的同一地点
影響香港熱帶氣旋路徑圖:http://www.hktctrack.net/ 將軍澳日出康城首都氣象站天氣情況:http://hktctrack.net/weatherstation/LOHASPark/ 新浪微博:http://weibo.com/zodiacvirgin/
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meow
2018-10-06 19:10
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9楼#
09Z达到T1.5,即将升格低压编号ARB 04。


VORTEX OVER SE ARSEA & N/HOOD CENTERED WITHIN HALF A DEGREE OF LAT 11.2N/67.5E (.) INTENSITY T1.5 RPT T1.5 (.) BKN LOW/MED CLOUDS WITH EMBDD INT TO V INT CONVTN


图片:20181006.0900.msg1.x.ir1km_bw.99AINVEST.25kts-1006mb-113N-669E.100pc.jpg

[9914dan于2018-10-08 22:54编辑了帖子]
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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