墨西哥湾东部四级飓风“迈克尔”(14L.Michael) - 近岸爆发吹袭佛州,21世纪登陆美国最强飓风 - NHC:135KT 919mb

阅读:19947回复:137
9914dan
2018-10-06 01:22
写私信
楼主#
91L INVEST 181005 1800  16.0N   84.2W ATL   20  1008

图片:two_atl_2d1.png

图片:two_atl_5d1.png



1. A broad area of low pressure centered near the northeastern coast
of Honduras is drifting northwestward and producing disorganized
shower and thunderstorm activity from Central America
east-northeastward across the Western Caribbean to Hispaniola.
Although strong winds aloft persist just to the north of the
system, the upper-level environment is expected to be conducive
enough to allow slow development.  A tropical depression could
form by late this weekend or early next week over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico while the system moves northwestward
to northward.  Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this
disturbance will continue to bring torrential rains primarily to
portions of Central America and the Yucatan peninsula during the
next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
[颱風巨爵于2018-10-13 01:03编辑了帖子]
喜欢0 评分3
红豆棒冰冰
2018-10-06 03:42
写私信
1楼#
数值普遍支持发展

图片:gfs_mslp_wind_watl_22.png


图片:ecmwf_mslp_uv850_watl_7.png


图片:fv3p_mslp_wind_watl_18.png


图片:gem_mslp_wind_watl_21.png

回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
炎煌深沉
2018-10-06 08:40
写私信
2楼#
NHC:50%/80%
1. Surface observations and satellite data indicate that a broad area
of low pressure is centered near the coast of Honduras. This system
is producing a large area of disturbed weather extending from
Central America east-northeastward across the Western Caribbean to
Hispaniola. Environmental conditions are expected to become more
favorable for development, and a tropical depression will likely
form over the northwestern Caribbean Sea or the southern Gulf of
Mexico by late this weekend or early next week while the system
moves slowly toward the northwest and north.  Regardless of tropical
cyclone formation, this disturbance will continue to bring
torrential rains primarily to portions of Central America, and these
rains should then spread over western Cuba and the Yucatan peninsula
during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

图片:two_atl_2d1.png

图片:two_atl_5d1.png

回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
炎煌深沉
2018-10-06 14:01
写私信
3楼#
NHC:70%/90%
1. Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that an area of low
pressure is centered about 80 miles north of the coast of Honduras,
however, the system is somewhat elongated and does not yet have a
closed circulation.  Heavier showers and thunderstorms have been
developing near and to the east of the low's center during the past
several hours, and extensive cloudiness and showers extend elsewhere
across the western Caribbean Sea eastward over the Greater Antilles.
Environmental conditions are expected to become gradually more
conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is
expected to form over the northwestern Caribbean Sea or the southern
Gulf of Mexico over the weekend or early next week
while the system
moves slowly north-northwestward at about 5 mph.
Interests in the
Yucatan peninsula and western Cuba should monitor the progress of
this system during the next several days.  Regardless of tropical
cyclone formation, this disturbance will continue to bring
torrential rains to portions of Central America, the Yucatan
peninsula, and western Cuba into next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

图片:two_atl_2d1.png

图片:two_atl_5d1.png

[炎煌深沉于2018-10-06 14:06编辑了帖子]
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
炎煌深沉
2018-10-06 20:07
写私信
4楼#
NHC:80%/90%
1. Satellite imagery, surface observations, and radar data from Belize
indicate that an area of low pressure is centered just north of the
Bay Islands of Honduras.  The associated showers and thunderstorms
show signs of organization, however, the system does not yet have a
well-defined circulation.  Environmental conditions are expected to
become gradually more conducive for further development, and a
tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea or the southern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday
or Monday
while the system moves slowly northward.
Interests in the
Yucatan peninsula, western Cuba, and the northern coast of the Gulf
of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system during the next
several days.  Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this
disturbance will continue to bring torrential rains to portions of
Central America, the Yucatan peninsula, and western Cuba into next
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

图片:two_atl_2d1.png

图片:two_atl_5d1.png

[炎煌深沉于2018-10-06 20:08编辑了帖子]
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
炎煌深沉
2018-10-06 22:53
写私信
5楼#
TCFA
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTNT21 KNGU 061500
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.0N 86.3W TO 22.5N 86.5W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 061200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.3N 86.2W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SITUATED JUST
NORTH OF THE COAST OF HONDURAS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY ORGANIZE. UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR STORM
COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA OR THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 071500Z.//

图片:al912018.gif

[炎煌深沉于2018-10-07 08:21编辑了帖子]
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
meow
2018-10-07 12:04
写私信
6楼#
初报登陆佛罗里达西北部。

图片:024012_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png


000
WTNT44 KNHC 070235
TCDAT4

Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018
1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 06 2018

The cloud pattern has improved in organization and surface pressures
are gradually falling, but there is no evidence that the system is
a tropical cyclone at this time.  All indications are, however, that
a tropical depression will likely form at any time soon. Strong wind
shear is expected to affect the disturbance, and the SHIPS model
only show a modest strengthening. This is in contrast to some global
models and the HWRF, which are more aggressive in developing this
system.  Since the environment is marginally favorable, the NHC
forecast only gradually strengthens the system at the rate of the
intensity consensus IVCN.  However, the forecast is highly uncertain
given the solution of the global models.

Since the system does not have a well-defined center, the initial
motion is also uncertain. The best estimate is toward the north or
360 degrees at 6 kt. Over the next 2 or 3 days, the cyclone will be
embedded within the deep southerly flow between a strong subtropical
ridge over the western Atlantic and a sharp mid-latitude trough
advancing eastward over the United States.  This flow pattern will
force the system to move northward at 5 to 10 kt across the
eastern Gulf of Mexico for the next 2 to 3 days. By day 4, the
system should have moved inland and be weakening. It should
then race northeastward farther inland across the eastern U.S.  The
track guidance envelope is remarkably quite tight. This increases
the confidence in the track forecast primarily after the cyclone
forms.

Key Messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen:

1.  This system is producing heavy rainfall and flash flooding over
portions of Central America, and these rains will spread over
western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during
the next couple of days.

2.  The system is forecast to become a tropical storm by late
Sunday, and tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of
western Cuba, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.

3.  The system could bring storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts
to portions of the northern Gulf Coast by mid-week, although it is
too soon to specify the exact location and magnitude of these
impacts.  Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of
this system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0300Z 18.8N  86.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  07/1200Z 19.5N  86.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 24H  08/0000Z 21.0N  86.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  08/1200Z 22.3N  86.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  09/0000Z 23.8N  86.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  10/0000Z 27.4N  87.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  11/0000Z 32.0N  85.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
120H  12/0000Z 38.5N  77.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Avila
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
红豆棒冰冰
2018-10-07 13:55
写私信
7楼#
NHC:100%/100%
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Oct 7 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Leslie, located over the central Atlantic Ocean.

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Fourteen, located over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea just east of the Yucatan Peninsula.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

1. A non-tropical low pressure system, located about midway between the
Azores and the Canary Islands, is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms, along with winds to near
gale force mainly north of the center.  The low could gradually
acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics over the next few
days while it moves generally eastward and remains over warm
waters.  By midweek, however, environmental conditions are expected
to become unfavorable for further development to occur.  Additional
information on this system can be found in high seas forecasts
issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Additional information on the eastern Atlantic low pressure system
can be found in high seas forecasts issued by Meteo France...under
WMO header FQNT50 LFPW.

Forecaster Cangialosi

图片:two_atl_2d0.png


图片:two_atl_5d0.png

回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
炎煌深沉
2018-10-07 14:59
写私信
8楼#
升TD
AL, 14, 2018100706,   , BEST,   0, 184N,  870W,  30, 1004, TD,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1010,  240, 120,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,   FOURTEEN, M,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 036,

图片:20181007.0600.goes15.x.ir1km_bw.14LFOURTEEN.25kts-1004mb-185N-866W.100pc.jpg



图片:goes16_ir-dvorak_14L_201810070620.jpg

[炎煌深沉于2018-10-07 15:09编辑了帖子]
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
红豆棒冰冰
2018-10-07 17:12
写私信
9楼#
000
WTNT44 KNHC 070851
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018
400 AM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018

Radar data from Belize and infrared satellite imagery indicate that
the low pressure system centered just off the coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula has continued to become better organized, with deep
convection consolidating just to the northeast of the low-level
center.  Dvorak estimates have increased to T2.0 from TAFB and T1.5
from SAB, indicating that the convective pattern has become
sufficiently organized for the low to now be declared a tropical
depression.  The maximum winds are estimated to be 30 kt based on
earlier ASCAT data.

The Belize radar data was extremely helpful in locating the
depression's center, and the system's 12-hour average motion is
north-northwestward, or 340 degrees, at a very slow 3 kt.  The
depression is expected to move generally northward during the next
3 days, gradually gaining speed as it enters the southerly flow
between high pressure over the western Atlantic and an advancing
deep-layer trough over the western half of the United States.  After
day 3, the trough is expected to cause the cyclone to turn
northeastward and accelerate further across the southeastern United
States.  While the track models agree on the general scenario,
there are some speed differences, most notably with the ECMWF model
being slower than the other guidance.  Also, the ECMWF and GFS
models are located along the western edge of the guidance envelope.
In light of these facts, the new NHC prediction is just a little
slower than the previous one, and it lies to the west of the TVCN
multi-model consensus and the HCCA model during the first 3 days of
the forecast.

The depression is still being hampered by 20-30 kt of westerly
shear, however it is also located in an environment of upper-level
diffluence to the southeast of a stationary trough over the Gulf of
Mexico.  The shear in the immediate vicinity of the cyclone is
forecast to gradually abate during the next 2-3 days while the
diffluent upper-air pattern continues, and along with sufficiently
warm waters of 28-30 degrees Celsius, all indications are that the
depression will gradually strengthen while it moves northward over
the Gulf of Mexico.  In fact, nearly every piece of intensity
guidance brings the cyclone to hurricane strength before it reaches
land, including the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET global models, which all
show significant deepening of the central pressure.  The updated NHC
intensity forecast generally lies between the ICON intensity
consensus and the HCCA model for the entire forecast period, and it
now explicitly shows the cyclone reaching hurricane strength by 72
hours.


Key Messages for Tropical Depression Fourteen:

1.  The depression is producing heavy rainfall and flash flooding
over portions of Central America, and these rains will spread over
western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during
the next couple of days.

2.  The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later
today, and tropical storm conditions are expected by tonight over
portions of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula,
where tropical storm warnings are in effect.

3.  Storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts are possible over
portions of the northern Gulf Coast by mid-week, although it is
too soon to specify the exact location and magnitude of these
impacts.  Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of
this system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0900Z 18.6N  86.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  07/1800Z 19.4N  86.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  08/0600Z 20.8N  86.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  08/1800Z 22.3N  86.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  09/0600Z 23.9N  87.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  10/0600Z 27.6N  87.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  11/0600Z 32.0N  84.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
120H  12/0600Z 37.0N  76.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...NEAR THE VA COAST

$$
Forecaster Berg

图片:085347_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分