孟加拉湾特强气旋风暴“提特里”(BOB 08/06B.Titli) - 缔造阿海孟湾史上首次双旋共舞,北上猛烈爆发登陆印度安得拉邦 - IMD:80KT JTWC:95KT CMA:45m/s

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颱風巨爵
2018-10-06 06:51
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90B INVEST 181005 1800 6.9N 95.4E IO 15 0

图片:20181005.2220.himawari-8.ir.90B.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.6.9N.95.4E.100pc.jpg

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【特輯】 淺談JTWC和預報理由
真宫寺小乔
2018-10-06 19:46
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1楼#
EC预报这个系统会登陆孟加拉湾西北部一带并入南支西风。由于99A的发展和MJO进入2区,南半球越赤道气流又出现了
我知道我很笨,很没用,可是,我白天拼命练习法术,我很努力!夜晚…发奋提高知识,然后每天……到拼抢散派任务,这么多的努力和汗水,都是为了能和姐姐们一样,成为一个堂堂正正的狐妖!
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炎煌深沉
2018-10-07 16:39
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2楼#
JTWC:LOW
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
12.4N 91.4E, APPROXIMATELY 600 NM SOUTH OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 070351Z ASCAT PASS
SHOW WIDESPREAD FLARING CONVECTION OVER AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). VWS IS LOW (5-15 KNOTS) OVER THE LLC BUT
INCREASES TO THE NORTHEAST. ALSO, A WEAK ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SYSTEM
CENTER IS ENABLING WEAK UL DIVERGENCE. SSTS ARE WARM (29-30 CELSIUS)
IN THE BAY OF BENGAL AND WILL SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL
MODELS ALL MAINTAIN A CIRCULATION ON A NORTHWEST TRACK BUT VARY
GREATLY ON DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL. GFS AND JGSM PREDICT NO
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT, WITH THE UKMO, NAVGEM, AND ECMWF SHOW THE
SYSTEM COULD REACH 30-50 KNOTS BEFORE LANDFALL.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

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[炎煌深沉于2018-10-07 16:45编辑了帖子]
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真宫寺小乔
2018-10-08 08:44
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一晚上结构有所改善,而且由于MJO转到2区,北印度洋一带越赤道气流再次增强,为这个系统进一步发展提供了足够水汽。

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[颱風巨爵于2018-10-08 09:11编辑了帖子]
我知道我很笨,很没用,可是,我白天拼命练习法术,我很努力!夜晚…发奋提高知识,然后每天……到拼抢散派任务,这么多的努力和汗水,都是为了能和姐姐们一样,成为一个堂堂正正的狐妖!
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327
2018-10-08 16:00
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JTWC:UPGRADED TO MEDIUM
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.9N 90.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 89.3E, APPROXIMATELY 500
NM SOUTHWEST OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE FLARING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A
STILL ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 080330Z PARTIAL ASCAT
PASS SHOWS THE ELONGATED NATURE OF THE LLC, WHICH HAS IMPROVED OVER
THE LAST TWELVE HOURS. VWS IS LOW-MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) WITH HIGHER
VALUES ALONG THE SYSTEM'S NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. UL DIVERGENCE IS
STRONG DUE TO FORMATIVE RADIAL OUTFLOW. SSTS ARE VERY WARM (29-31
CELSIUS) IN THE BAY OF BENGAL AND WILL SUPPORT FUTURE DEVELOPMENT.
GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN TAUS
24 AND 48 ON A NORTHWESTERN TRACK  TOWARDS THE INDIAN COAST.
MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

图片:080500abpwsair.jpg

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meow
2018-10-08 16:16
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升格低压,编号BOB 08。

AS PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY BASED ON 0300 UTC OF TODAY, THE 8TH OCTOBER, INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T 1.5. BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER AREA BETWEEN LATITUDE 13.2°N & 17.0°N AND LONGITUDE 87.0°E & 95.0°E. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. THE SEA CONDITION IS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH AROUND SYSTEM CENTRE.
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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yam198406132
2018-10-08 17:19
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6楼#
EC调强,认为72小时后以scs撞印度,此乎两大数值机构对这个90B巅峰强度有低估。
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炎煌深沉
2018-10-08 20:42
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7楼#
TPIO11 PGTW 081227
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90B (W OF ANDAMAN ISLANDS)
B. 08/1200Z
C. 14.31N
D. 87.37E
E. FIVE/MET8
F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/21HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .35 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   08/0712Z  14.48N  88.30E  AMS2
   08/0859Z  14.43N  88.07E  SSMI
   08/0956Z  14.23N  87.82E  SSMS
   08/1051Z  14.27N  87.60E  GPMI

   VEERKAMP

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327
2018-10-08 22:22
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8楼#
JTWC:TCFA
WTIO21 PGTW 081430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.6N 88.0E TO 17.6N 84.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 081200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.4N 87.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.3N
89.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 87.7E, APPROXIMATELY 480 NM SOUTH
OF KOLKATA, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 080956Z
91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING WITH
DEEPENING CENTRALLY LOCATED CONVECTION OVER A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS
CHARACTERIZED BY A VERY SMALL REGION OF LOW (5-15 KNOT) VWS ABOVE
THE LLCC WITH HIGHER VALUES SURROUNDING. THIS MARGINAL SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT IS OFFSET BY NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW ENABLING UL DIVERGENCE.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLY WARM (30-32 CELSIUS) IN
THE BAY OF BENGAL. GLOBAL MODELS ALL AGREE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE DEVELOPMENT BEFORE PROMPTLY MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE
INDIAN OR BANGLADESHI COAST TO THE NORTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
091430Z.//
NNNN

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[327于2018-10-08 22:40编辑了帖子]
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红豆棒冰冰
2018-10-08 22:40
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(动图)贴一下GFS和ECMWF的预报

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图片:ecmwf_z500_mslp_india_fh0-120.gif

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