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[EP]东太平洋一级飓风“科斯米”(03E.Cosme)--MAX:75KT

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更多 发布于:2013-06-20 21:51

图片:20130620_1315_goes13_x_ir1km_bw_94EINVEST_20kts-NAmb-112N-949W_100pc.jpg

[iam最小值于2013-06-29 20:42编辑了帖子]
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1楼#
发布于:2013-06-20 22:04
不知道是不是EC报了几天的那个宽阔的饼,NHC现在还没有评级,估计今天晚些时候就会出了
 
+120

图片:Wind3285032and32mslp_North32America_120.gif


+144

图片:Wind3285032and32mslp_North32America_144.gif


+168

图片:Wind3285032and32mslp_North32America_168.gif

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0922
强热带风暴
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2楼#
发布于:2013-06-20 22:25
应该会吸收热带风暴BARRY的残留云系
目前涡度泛橙且狭长,幅散幅合支持,风切略大,有待观察
(原来我怎么完全没注意
对流系数0.16
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发布于:2013-06-21 02:13
** WTNT80 EGRR 201800 ***

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 20.06.2013

            NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  60 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 12.9N 102.8W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 23.06.2013  12.9N 102.8W     WEAK
 12UTC 23.06.2013  13.8N 104.3W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 24.06.2013  14.4N 106.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 24.06.2013  15.4N 107.8W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 25.06.2013  15.8N 109.6W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 25.06.2013  17.0N 111.3W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 26.06.2013  17.9N 113.1W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 26.06.2013  18.8N 115.1W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT


 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 201654
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发布于:2013-06-21 02:52
NHC:10%
1. A BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE IN ANOTHER DAY OR TWO.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS

图片:epac1.gif

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发布于:2013-06-22 02:17
改一改标题吧,NHC:50%

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI JUN 21 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
 1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ARE SHOWING SIGNS
OF ORGANIZATION.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WEEKEND.  THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT
ABOUT 10 MPH.

 2. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 800 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING
A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS.  SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE WHILE IT MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
MPH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
NNNN
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发布于:2013-06-22 02:25
也順便改改定位嘛……12.8N 99.6E

** WTNT80 EGRR 211800 ***

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 21.06.2013

            NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  42 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 11.9N 103.7W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 23.06.2013  11.2N 104.8W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 24.06.2013  13.0N 105.7W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 24.06.2013  13.8N 107.0W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 25.06.2013  15.4N 108.8W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 25.06.2013  16.3N 110.8W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 26.06.2013  17.9N 112.7W    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 26.06.2013  19.1N 114.8W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 27.06.2013  20.3N 117.2W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 27.06.2013  21.1N 119.7W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT


 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 211729
[刚打酱油回来于2013-06-22 02:27编辑了帖子]
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发布于:2013-06-22 09:15
 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ARE
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
WEEKEND...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT
10 MPH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  

图片:epac1.gif


 

图片:20130622_0015_goes13_x_ir1km_bw_94EINVEST_25kts-1007mb-120N-1003W_100pc.jpg


 
结构良好,环境亦不错,95E没什么太大变化的话,03E应该就是它了
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8楼#
发布于:2013-06-22 13:30
WTPN21 PHNC 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
300 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.7N 100.0W TO 16.8N 108.6W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 220030Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.1N 101.2W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12N
100.3W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 101.2W, APPROXIMATELY 305 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) LOCATED
UNDERNEATH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. A 220030Z SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS THE CONSOLIDATING LLCC AND INDICATES FRAGMENTED BANDING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. A 211852Z SCATTEROMETRY PASS
INDICATED 15-20 KNOT WINDS SURROUNDING THE ELONGATED LLCC. UPPER
LEVEL ANLAYSIS INDICATES GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AS WELL AS LOW (5 TO
10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED BETWEEN 18 AND 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO THE INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF
THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
230300Z.
//
うるさくてたまらないんだ...
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发布于:2013-06-22 13:30
TXPZ24 KNES 220001
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94E)

B. 21/2345Z

C. 11.7N

D. 101.6W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...DT=1.0 BASED ON .2+ BROKEN BAND ON LOG10
SPIRAL. PT=1.0. MET=1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ,03E基本就是他了
うるさくてたまらないんだ...
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