小范老师
论坛版主-副热带高压
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60楼#
发布于:2013-06-26 20:59
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.4
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 26 JUN 2013 Time : 090000 UTC
Lat : 18:51:00 N Lon : 114:20:30 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.8 / 988.6mb/ 61.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.2 3.1 2.7

Center Temp : -49.4C Cloud Region Temp : -48.9C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 110km
- Environmental MSLP : 1011mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 32.3 degrees
,减弱
うるさくてたまらないんだ...
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酷倫
台风
台风
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61楼#
发布于:2013-06-26 22:06
現時形態很美
不過預測將西移及減弱
那年冬天我們相戀在一起 可是,我卻錯過了妳的愛 ------------- 現在,我們各自有各的愛人 我們由最親變成不認識的陌路人 我已經改變了,可是再也來不及 就讓那年愛情,在回憶中待續。
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pikaqiu1982
强台风
强台风
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62楼#
发布于:2013-06-27 08:01
东太又在自娱自乐,科斯米挂了后,差不多同一位置会迅速形成新系统,48小时内爆发到CAT2水准,然后学科斯米一样迅速减弱......
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windows8
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
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63楼#
发布于:2013-06-27 09:57


全球热带气旋监测报告
预报:顾华  签发:张玲  2013062710


COSME减弱为热带风暴东北太平洋一级飓风COSME已于6月26日晚上(北京时,下同)减弱为热带风暴,27日08时其中心位于墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角西南方大约890公里的东北太平洋洋面上,就是北纬19.3度、西经117.6度,中心附近最大风力有10级(25米/秒,强度相当于我国的强热带风暴),中心最低气压为993百帕。预计,COSME将以每小时25公里左右的速度继续向西偏北方向移动,强度逐渐减弱。

图片:SEVP_NMC_TCMO_SFER_EME_AGLB_L89_P9_20130627020002400_1044.png

好花不常开,好景不常在
JTWC网站:https://metoc.ndbc.noaa.gov/JTWC
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wangruizhi
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
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64楼#
发布于:2013-06-27 10:20
对流羸弱,干空气开始大肆侵入其环流,CDO逐步瓦解,只有结构尚存,恐怕不久后变成了空壳一具。
 

图片:avn0-lalo.jpg

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tcfa_gw
论坛版主-副热带高压
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65楼#
发布于:2013-06-27 23:06

** WTPZ23 KNHC 271440 ***
TCMEP3
 
TROPICAL STORM COSME FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032013
1500 UTC THU JUN 27 2013
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 120.9W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 75NE   0SE   0SW  75NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 240SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 120.9W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 120.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 20.9N 123.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 21.4N 125.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 21.5N 128.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.5N 131.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 21.5N 135.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 22.0N 139.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 120.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
キズナミュージック? 大切な歌 青春の歌 始まりの歌 奏でよう!何度でもいつまでも 精一杯!Forever for dreaming! 歌を信じる——
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tcfa_gw
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66楼#
发布于:2013-06-27 23:09

TXPZ24 KNES 271227
TCSENP

A.  03E (COSME)

B.  27/1200Z

C.  20.3N

D.  120.0W

E.  THREE/GOES-W

F.  T1.5/2.5/W1.5/12HRS

G.  IR/EIR/SWIR

H.  REMARKS...LOSS OF CONVECTION YIELDS A DT=0. MET ON RAPID WEAKENING
IS 1.5 AND PAT=1.5. CONSTRAINED TO WEAKENING OF 1.5 OVER 12HRS. FT IS
BASED ON CONSTRAINTS.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    NIL


...SWANSON
キズナミュージック? 大切な歌 青春の歌 始まりの歌 奏でよう!何度でもいつまでも 精一杯!Forever for dreaming! 歌を信じる——
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iam最小值
论坛版主-副热带高压
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67楼#
发布于:2013-06-28 08:27
今天凌晨NHC发最后一报,认为虽然底层环流仍在,但是风速数据已经低于热带风暴的标准,因此降为残余低气压区。

WTPZ43 KNHC 272032
TCDEP3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032013
200 PM PDT THU JUN 27 2013

COSME CONSISTS OF A LARGE SWIRL OF LOW/MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  PASSIVE WIND DATA FROM
A SERIES OF SSM/IS OVERPASSES SUGGESTS THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE
DROPPED BELOW TROPICAL-STORM FORCE.  BASED ON THIS AND THE LACK OF
DEEP CONVECTION...IT IS ESTIMATED THAT COSME HAS DEGENERATED TO A
REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 285/15.  THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN
TOWARD THE WEST DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS IT IS STEERED BY A
LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.  THE REMNANTS ARE LIKELY TO SLOW
THEIR FORWARD SPEED BY 72-96 HR AS THEY APPROACH A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND REMAINS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON COSME BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER
AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/2100Z 20.9N 122.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  28/0600Z 21.3N 124.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  28/1800Z 21.5N 127.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  29/0600Z 21.5N 130.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  29/1800Z 21.5N 132.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  30/1800Z 21.5N 137.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  01/1800Z 22.0N 140.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

图片:2013-06-27 14(美国时间PDT)Cosme预报图(最后一报).gif

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tcfa_gw
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68楼#
发布于:2013-06-28 08:30
TXPZ24 KNES 271828
TCSENP

A.  03E (COSME)

B.  27/1800Z

C.  20.7N

D.  121.8W

E.  THREE/GOES-W

F.  T1.0/2.0/W2.0/18HRS

G.  IR/EIR/VIS

H.  REMARKS...SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY WITH DT=0 BASED ON
NO DEEP CONVECTION. MET=1.5 BUT PAT=1.0.FT IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS
OF W2.0/18HRS.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    NIL


...SWANSON
キズナミュージック? 大切な歌 青春の歌 始まりの歌 奏でよう!何度でもいつまでも 精一杯!Forever for dreaming! 歌を信じる——
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tcfa_gw
论坛版主-副热带高压
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69楼#
发布于:2013-06-28 08:45
TXPZ24 KNES 280022
TCSENP

A.  03E (COSME)

B.  28/0000Z

C.  21.2N

D.  123.2W

E.  THREE/GOES-W

F. TOO WEAK
 
G.  IR/EIR/VIS

H.  REMARKS...THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY DUE LACK OF MEASURABLE
CONVECTION.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    NIL


...MCCARTHY
キズナミュージック? 大切な歌 青春の歌 始まりの歌 奏でよう!何度でもいつまでも 精一杯!Forever for dreaming! 歌を信じる——
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