汤圆盟主
论坛版主-副热带高压
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50楼#
发布于:2013-08-10 17:33
ZCZC 689
WTPA23 PHFO 100831
TCMCP3

TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  28
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP082013
0900 UTC SAT AUG 10 2013
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 146.7W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE  20SE  20SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..140NE  30SE  30SW 140NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 146.7W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 145.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 13.7N 148.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  10SE  10SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 13.1N 152.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   5SE   5SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 12.9N 155.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 12.6N 159.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 11.8N 167.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 146.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z
 
$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD


NNNN



强弩之末。。。
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唐明皇1
强台风
强台风
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51楼#
发布于:2013-08-10 21:15

图片:20130810.1131.noaa19.x.ir1km.08EHENRIETTE.45kts-1001mb-144N-1459W.100pc[1].jpg


其实08E的对流还是不错的,不过范围小了些= =中太的环境也不是很好= =
花蝴蝶的美的艳的炫若没三审定擫,那些路人甲们为什么发言惹人讨厌
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katrina
论坛版主-副热带高压
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52楼#
发布于:2013-08-11 00:38
剛才看了看NAVGEM, 這神級數值居然預測HENRIETTE進西太...無語了

EC+240H的遠洋貨時間點和NAV預測HENRIETTE進西太時間吻合, 不會吧
[katrina于2013-08-11 00:43编辑了帖子]
We shall meet in the place where there is no darkness.
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colinwoo
台风
台风
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53楼#
发布于:2013-08-11 00:56
wangruizhi锛毥胫刑窖螅珻PHC接手发布第一报。强度依然维持一级飓风,但已经被24℃的水温和干空气摧残得不成样子......
 
WTPA23 PHFO 090831
TCMCP3

HURRICANE HENRIETTE FORECAST...
鍥炲埌鍘熷笘
為什麼中太特別多干空氣?
Colinwoo
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katrina
论坛版主-副热带高压
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54楼#
发布于:2013-08-11 00:58
近6小時移速加快了很多



图片:0810.1600Z.jpg


图片:0810.1600Z.jpg


图片:0810.1600Z.jpg

[katrina于2013-08-11 00:59编辑了帖子]
We shall meet in the place where there is no darkness.
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katrina
论坛版主-副热带高压
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55楼#
发布于:2013-08-11 23:32

對流消消長長的, 爆完後散掉, 散掉再爆, 這某程度上減緩了減弱速度, 但也無阻CPHC將其降格TD




WTPA43 PHFO 111445
TCDCP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  33
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP082013
500 AM HST SUN AUG 11 2013
 
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF HENRIETTE COMPLETELY DISAPPEARED
AGAIN BY MIDNIGHT HST...BUT A SMALL NEW AREA OF CONVECTION HAS
FORMED SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER SINCE 200 AM HST. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ANALYSES FROM SAB AND PHFO HAD ONLY 1.0 AND 1.5 FOR CURRENT
INTENSITY AND JTWC COULD NOT LOCATE THE SYSTEM. BASED ON THE VERY
WEAK SATELLITE SIGNATURE I HAVE DROPPED THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 30
KT.
 
HENRIETTE HAS CONTINUED MOVING WEST QUITE RAPIDLY. AN EAST TO WEST
RIDGE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE SYSTEM
SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING WEST IN THE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE
RIDGE. THE MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT AND THE
CURRENT TRACK FORECAST HAS CHANGED LITTLE.
 
HENRIETTE IS A VERY SMALL CIRCULATION WITH ONLY INTERMITTANT
CONVECTION TO SUSTAIN IT. UNLESS MORE PERSISTENT CONVECTION
DEVELOPS NEAR THE CYCLONE...HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A
REMNANT LOW BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/1500Z 13.6N 156.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  12/0000Z 13.4N 159.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  12/1200Z 13.2N 162.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  13/0000Z 13.0N 166.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  13/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 

图片:0811.1430Z.jpg



图片:0811.1430Z.jpg

We shall meet in the place where there is no darkness.
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臭豆腐518
台风
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发布于:2013-08-12 09:35
JTWC:FW
WTPN31 PHNC 112200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (HENRIETTE) WARNING NR 034    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   111800Z --- NEAR 13.5N 157.5W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 23 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.5N 157.5W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z --- 13.3N 161.4W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 19 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z --- 13.2N 165.3W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 19 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z --- 13.1N 169.1W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
112200Z POSITION NEAR 13.4N 158.8W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (HENRIETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 397 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 23 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z
IS 10 FEET.
//
NNNN
2015年榆次实现了入盛夏(7月26日,不过正好5天),而且8月1-3号降水超8月平均,目前109.6mm。可是萎靡的太原气象站。。。 本人每年入春入夏时期才会上线……另外这id是我老早以前乱打的。。。。。。。
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katrina
论坛版主-副热带高压
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57楼#
发布于:2013-08-12 19:48
這樣子應該不致於連INVEST AREA也沒了吧
[katrina于2013-08-12 19:53编辑了帖子]
We shall meet in the place where there is no darkness.
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小伙伴
热带风暴
热带风暴
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58楼#
发布于:2013-08-12 20:37
目前虽然消散了,或许还有希望进西太发展吧
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