楼主#更多 发布于：2013-11-05 20:57
Who is the Official Typhoon Agency?
Over the past several years I have noticed a difference in opinions of people across the western pacific and the world on this exact question, “Who is the official Typhoon Warning Agency?” From what I have seen and heard from many around the world is that most have no clue so I am here to set the record straight.
First I want to start off by mentioning that in the Western Pacific there are over Ten Forecast Agencies that create Tropical Cyclone Forecast at one time or another pending how close a storm is to there respected countries. They are the Japan Meteorological Agency, China Meteorological Agency, Hong Kong Observatory,Indonesia Meteorological Agency, Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Korea Meteorological Association,Malaysia Meteorological Agency, PAGASA, Taiwan, Thailand Meteorological Department and more. All these forecast agencies create there own graphics and provide valuable information to there respected countries. With one exception, one of these agencies is not part of the World Meteorological Organization. (WMO) Yet this agency gets displayed on numerous website and even mainstream TV organizations (that should remain nameless) as a official warning agency. That is the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).
Let me start off by saying that JTWC is a great agency in its own right and for what it does. Forecasting the Weather for the US Military. The JTWC is not one of the WMO designated Regional Specialized Meteorological Centres, or one of its Typhoon Warning Centers. This forecast Agency was created to support United States Government and mainly military installations after the disaster of Typhoon Cobra that sunk four ships East of the Philippines in 1944. Being part of the military in my past and actually working with this agency I can honestly say they are designed and dedicated to stopping a disaster like that happening again. With that said the general public should not use this agency, end of story and for numerous reasons. A main one is they point at US Bases over seas in there long range forecast. If you don’t believe this next time look closely at a initial warning from JTWC, it is always towards a US Military Base, the most recent case was Guam with Sanvu, the storm obviously was going to go south of the island yet the initial warning pushed right over it. This is often the case with Okinawa, we always get worried emails from people in Okinawa when they see the forecast showing a deadly storm blasting the southern Japanese Island, yet after pointing them towards the official agency they get more relieved as the forecast typically is pointing away from the military installation. The reason they do this is for planning purposes, most bases take time to get ready for a storm, and better to make it worst case scenario than be under forecasted. Another reason is the forecasters for this agency are typically rotating in and out over a two year period, unlike the doctors and experienced hardened people who forecast for the official agencies such as JMA. Lastly is the plain and fairly obvious statement on there website that reads.
就權責範圍內，我得說 JTWC 是個出色的機構。JTWC 並非 WMO 指定之區域特別氣象中心或颱風警報中心，而是為美國軍隊預測天氣，之所以成立支援美國政府與軍方係因 1944 年颱風眼鏡蛇在菲律賓東方讓四艘船隻沉沒。我過去曾從軍並確實曾與這機構共事過，因此我能誠實地說 JTWC 是設計來阻止那樣的災難再度發生。有許多理由可說明公眾不該引用這個機構，其中之一就是長期預報會指向美軍海外基地，如果你還是不相信，下次可以仔細觀察 JTWC 的初報，路徑總指向美國軍事基地。最近的例子有關島與「珊瑚」，這個風暴很明顯從關島南方通過，可是初報卻正中關島。沖繩更是個好例子，沖繩民眾一看到預報表明致命的風暴將過來肆虐，我們就常收到他們的擔憂信件，然而讓他們轉而參考正式機構以後他們就放心了，因為通常不會預測指向軍事設施。這樣做是為了擬定計畫，保留更多時間準備迎接風暴，做最壞打算總比低估來得好。另一理由則是這機構的預報員通常兩年就輪替一次，不像 JMA 等機構是由博士與有長期經驗的人預測。最後貼上 JTWC 平鋪直敘的聲明。
Products on this website are intended for use by U.S. government agencies. Please consult your national meteorological agency or the appropriate World Meteorological Organization Regional Specialized Meteorological Center for tropical cyclone products pertinent to your country, region and/or local area.
Once again, I do think this agency is good at what they do and I always use them when comparing with other agencies on a forecast track, but when discussing official warnings and dealing with typhoon planning a civilian whom has nothing to do with the US military should not consult JTWC.
With that said, back to the question, who is official??
According to the WMO it is RSMC TOKYO or the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). They are the hub of the Typhoon Committee established in 1968 and communicate with all the other WMO Agencies in regards to typhoon tracks. (JTWC not in the Typhoon Committee.) Below is a graphic from the WMO Stating where the official Agency boundaries are.
根據 WMO，正式機構是 RSMC 東京或日本氣象廳（JMA），是 1968 年成立的颱風委員會的核心成員，並和其他 WMO 機構商談颱風路徑事宜。（JTWC 不屬於颱風委員會）以下 WMO 聲明了何處是正式的界限。
The other cyclone warning agencies across the western pacific and eastern asia are responsible for their specific countries and creating typhoon warnings and watches for there local areas based on the threats they deem to be most severe, yet this does not stop them from issuing forecast as well but remember above they communicate with the typhoon committe before, while, and after doing so.
All of these agencies also follow the WMO rules for naming these storms, with the exception of PAGASA (Philippines) who names their own storms. This is due to a few reasons two of them being the government feels people in Rural areas would remember the name easier and it gives the general public in the Philippines a more sense of urgency when it has a local name by PAGASA. Further more some old laws and governmental fixtures that keep things the way they are in the Philippines. Read this article from GMA a news source in the Philippines for more information.
所有這些機構也跟隨 WMO 的規則命名風暴，惟 PAGASA（菲律賓）另外命名。政府認為如此鄉下民眾會更容易記住名字，並讓民眾在風暴有 PAGASA 名稱時具有危機意識，陳舊法規也讓這模式得以在菲律賓維持。閱讀菲律賓 GMA 的文章以獲得更多資訊。
So with that said, JMA is the official agency of the Western Pacific for Cyclone Warnings and Watches.
Here is a list of agencies world wide that provide cyclone forecast.?
As always I welcome your opinion and comments. Please keep them respectful and kind, but a little debate never hurt either.
~Meteorologist Robert Speta
~氣象學家 Robert Speta