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强热带风暴
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[EP]墨西哥西南98E-12.0N-108.0W-NHC:30%

楼主#
更多 发布于:2013-11-14 23:49
98E.INVEST.20kts.1009mb.12N.108W




1. A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND ARE THEN FORECAST TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE.  THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD.
[iam最小值于2013-11-15 09:46编辑了帖子]
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1楼#
发布于:2013-11-15 09:46
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.  AFTER THAT TIME...STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND INTERACTION WITH LAND ARE EXPECTED TO INHIBIT
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

图片:epac1.gif

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tcfa_gw
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2楼#
发布于:2013-11-15 22:16

1. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA
OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD AND THEN
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. AFTER THAT
TIME...STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INHIBIT FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

图片:npac.gif

キズナミュージック? 大切な歌 青春の歌 始まりの歌 奏でよう!何度でもいつまでも 精一杯!Forever for dreaming! 歌を信じる——
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3楼#
发布于:2013-11-16 10:30
NHC:30%

1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE
BETTER ORGANIZED ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE BEFORE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
DEVELOP OVER THE DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD AND THEN
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

图片:npac.gif

キズナミュージック? 大切な歌 青春の歌 始まりの歌 奏でよう!何度でもいつまでも 精一杯!Forever for dreaming! 歌を信じる——
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tcfa_gw
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4楼#
发布于:2013-11-16 17:11
NHC:30%

1. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO.  ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY
BECOMING UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE...THIS
DISTURBANCE COULD STILL PRODUCE GALE-FORCE WIND GUSTS TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY
NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE LIKELY
TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO OVER THE WEEKEND.

图片:npac.gif

キズナミュージック? 大切な歌 青春の歌 始まりの歌 奏でよう!何度でもいつまでも 精一杯!Forever for dreaming! 歌を信じる——
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wangruizhi
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5楼#
发布于:2013-11-16 19:05
TXPZ27 KNES 160637
TCSENP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (98E)
B.  16/0600Z
C.  17.6N
D.  110.3W
E.  FIVE/GOES-W
F.  T1.0/1.0/D0.5/24HRS
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR
H.  REMARKS...LESS THAN 1.25 DEGREE SHEAR FOR DT=1.0.  MET AND PT AGREE.
FT IS BASED ON DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL

...SALEMI
 

图片:bd0-lalo.jpg

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t02436
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6楼#
发布于:2013-11-16 20:34
NHC:20%
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO.  STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE DISPLACING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AWAY FROM
THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION.  THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
STRONGER TODAY...AND DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS BECOMING LESS
LIKELY.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO OVER THE WEEKEND.

图片:epac1.gif

[iam最小值于2013-11-16 21:05编辑了帖子]
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7楼#
发布于:2013-11-17 09:50
NRL和FNMOC均已撤编,NHC:0%
 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT
EXPECTED...AND IT HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...NEAR
0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

图片:epac1.gif

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雷蒙德
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8楼#
发布于:2013-11-17 10:10
今年墨西哥真悲催。。。。。。
强度党一枚
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