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[SH(13-14)]西南印度洋强热带气旋第6号“科林”(08S.Colin) - MAX:MFR 100KT;JTWC:115KT

楼主#
更多 发布于:2014-01-06 12:36

图片:92S.PNG

[iam最小值于2014-01-17 21:32编辑了帖子]
3条评分, 威望 +13 金钱 +3
  • iam最小值
    威望 10
    MFR评价100KT
    2014-01-12 22:07
  • iam最小值
    威望 3
    下次记得把标题格式弄完整
    2014-01-06 12:57
  • iam最小值
    金钱 3
    下次记得把标题格式弄完整
    2014-01-06 12:57
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Dumb people do dumb things without realising they are dumb.
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1楼#
发布于:2014-01-07 02:16
JTWC: LOW
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.1S 106.2E,
APPROXIMATELY 239 NM SOUTH OF JAKARTA, INDONESIA. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION BEGINNING TO WRAP
AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DISTURBANCE. THE DISTURBANCE IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED POLEWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE UNDER LOW TO
MODERATE (10 TO 20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH IMPROVING DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 72 TO 96 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

图片:92S LOW.PNG

Dumb people do dumb things without realising they are dumb.
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Luigi728
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2楼#
发布于:2014-01-07 11:20
 THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.1S
106.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.0S 104.8E, APPROXIMATELY 318 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF JAKARTA, INDONESIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH IMPROVING CENTRAL CONVECTION. A 070101Z SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS THE IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTION AS WELL AS A CUSP
FEATURE. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED POLEWARD OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE UNDER LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WITH STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
ALSO FAVORABLE AT GREATER THAN 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

图片:abiosair.jpg

[iam最小值于2014-01-07 12:09编辑了帖子]
再一次相遇我會緊緊抱著你 緊緊抱著你......
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iam最小值
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3楼#
发布于:2014-01-07 12:15
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 11:00 am WST on Tuesday 7 January 2014
for the period until midnight WST Friday 10 January 2014.

Existing Cyclones in the  Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:  

There is a low near 11.0S 106.5E, about 100 km southeast of Christmas Island,
and moving west at about 25 kilometres per hour. While conditions are not
favourable for development, it may still develop into a tropical cyclone over
the next few days. It is forecast to continue moving west and should be west of
90E and out of the region by Friday.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Wednesday       Low        
Thursday        Moderate  
Friday          Low
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Mitch
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4楼#
发布于:2014-01-07 14:25
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雷蒙德
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5楼#
发布于:2014-01-07 18:16
GFS支持发展
强度党一枚
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Mitch
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6楼#
发布于:2014-01-07 21:28
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Mitch
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7楼#
发布于:2014-01-08 13:43
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iam最小值
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8楼#
发布于:2014-01-08 20:49
Low over BOM (Perth TCWC) AoR (NRL number 92S).
A low exists near Cocos island and is tracking rapidly westwards. It is expected to penetrate over
our RSMC AoR on Thursday then to keep on tracking West-South-westwards the following days.
This low is undergoing a moderate easterly vertical windshear but is expected to be located under
the upper level ridge axis on Saturday, it may then deepen significantly.
The likelihood that a tropical depression develops over the far eastern part of the basin is
weak on Thursday and Friday, become Moderate on Saturday and High on Sunday
.
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tcfa_gw
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9楼#
发布于:2014-01-09 09:00
PGTW:T2.0

TPXS10 PGTW 090007

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 92S (SW OF JAVA)

B. 08/2330Z

C. 10.4S

D. 92.5E

E. FIVE/MET7

F. T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAP OF .30 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. PT AND MET YIELD A 2.0. DBO PT AND
MET.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   08/1845Z  10.4S  93.3E  ATMS
   08/1945Z  10.4S  93.1E  MMHS
   08/2035Z  10.5S  93.2E  SSMI


   UEHARA
ただひとつの“今”を歌いつづける。
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