tcfa_gw
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20楼#
发布于:2014-01-18 09:05

** WTIO21 FMEE 180030 ***
METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BMS MARINE LE 18/01/2014 A 0000 UTC.
NUMERO: 007/7 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN)
VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT)
(LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT
MOYEN).
PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(VALEUR INDICATIVE)
AVIS DE GRAND FRAIS
DEBUT DE VALIDITE: SAMEDI 18/01/2014 A 0000 UTC.
PHENOMENE: DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE 7  (EX-DELIWE)  1000 HPA
POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 25.3 S / 40.3 E
(VINGT CINQ DEGRES TROIS SUD ET QUARANTE DEGRES TROIS EST) A 0000 UTC
DEPLACEMENT:  OUEST 6 KT
ZONES MENACEES:
TEMPS A GRAINS S'ETENDANT JUSQUE 270 MN DU CENTRE ESSENTIELLEMENT
DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST.
CIRCULATION 20/30 KT ET MER FORTE AVEC DU GRAND FRAIS 30 KT
S'ETENDANT ENTRE 150 MN ET 220 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST ET JUSQUE
180 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST.
FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS.
PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES:
A 12H POUR LE 18/01/2014 A 12 UTC:
25.4 S / 39.5 E, VENT MAX = 30 KT, DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE
A 24H POUR LE 19/01/2014 A 00 UTC:
24.5 S / 38.7 E, VENT MAX = 25 KT, DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT
INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES :
DERNIER BULLETIN SUR CE SYSTEME SAUF REINTENSIFICATION. DU GRAND
FRAIS RESIDUEL DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR PRINCIPALEMENT DANS LE QUADRANT
SUD-OUEST AUJOURD'HUI.=

图片:trajectoire.png



这就不行了?
ただひとつの“今”を歌いつづける。
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Mitch
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21楼#
发布于:2014-01-18 14:34
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iam最小值
论坛版主-副热带高压
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22楼#
发布于:2014-01-20 05:44
重新评级LOW
 
 AN AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 09S) HAS PERSISTED
NEAR 23.9S 38.1E, APPROXIMATELY 315 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MAPUTO,
MOZAMBIQUE. BASED ON ANALYSIS, THE REMNANTS OF TC 09S IS A
SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A
WEAK FRONTAL SIGNATURE, EXTENDING WELL SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR. A
191536Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC WITH DRY AIR OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT.
A 191948Z PARTIAL SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWS 30 KNOT WIND BARBS OVER
THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED UNDER STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WITH
LIMITED OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD INTO AN AREA WITH WARMER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING VWS IN THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

图片:abiosair.jpg

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iam最小值
论坛版主-副热带高压
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23楼#
发布于:2014-01-20 20:47
Remnant Low nr07 Ex-Deliwe :
At 1000Z :
- Position : near 23.0S/37.3E
- Movement : West at 3kt.
- 10mn average wind speed : 15/20kt , reaching 25kt in the south-western quadrant.
- MSLP : 1007hPa.
The associated rainy and thundery activity is fluctuating and mainly located offshore south of the
LLCC. The remnant low is expected to go on north-westward and dissipate over the Mozambican
coast on Tuesday. Although the rainy and thundery weather is forecasted to remain mainly offshore,
heavy rains will impige the Mozambican coast (south of 20S) up to Wednesday.
 

图片:vis0-lalo.jpg

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24楼#
发布于:2014-01-21 20:42
Filling up low n°07 Ex-Deliwe :
At 1100Z :
- Position : near 22.4S / 35.6E
- Movement : West-North-West at 4 kt.
- 10mn average wind speed : 10/15 kt , reaching 20 kt in the western semi-circle.
- MSLP : 1009 hPa.
The center is about to cross the Mozambique coasts near the Bazaruto archipelago. The
thunderstorm activity remains fluctuating within short lived convective burst that are mainly
occurring in the south-western quadrant. The low level circulation should dissipate rather rapidly
once it reaches the landmass.
 

图片:vis0-lalo.jpg


 
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