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[翻译请求]从环球角度看英国最近的风暴和水灾

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更多 发布于:2014-02-17 10:25
A Global Perspective on the Recent Storms and Floods in the UK
从环球角度看英国最近的风暴和水灾
 
英国气象局发布了长达27页报告剖析几年严重强冬季风暴和严重水灾的成因,与全球极端环流形势,包括美加大风雪等等有莫大关系。特此开贴请求翻译,我自己也会参与。来源:英国Met Office
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/news/2014/uk-storms-and-floods
 
Recent_Storms_Briefing_Final_SLR_20140211.pdf

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[spidyl2009于2014-03-17 12:55编辑了帖子]
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  • henry4867
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    本人暂先翻译4-8页
    2014-02-18 09:22
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    很好,等我回去先再慢慢欣赏佳作
    2014-02-17 16:46
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发布于:2014-02-17 18:22
帖内置顶  –  wusifeng  –  2014-02-17 18:38
      在此插几句,此篇报告内容比较长,欢迎各位版友参与翻译与讨论。由于此类新闻报告翻译的整体难度会比定期翻译或JTWC预报理由翻译难,加分尺度我也会相对加大。凡是参与翻译者至少获得贡献和好评奖励,具体评分视翻译量和质量而定,为了避免翻译冲突,有需要翻译的最好向楼主或版主预约。另发言质量高者也可获得相应评分奖励,希望大家积极参与!
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发布于:2014-02-17 11:00
P.2
Summary

This winter the UK has been affected very severely by an exceptional run of winter storms, culminating in serious coastal damage and widespread, persistent flooding.
This period of weather has been part of major perturbations to the Pacific and North Atlantic jet streams driven, in part, by persistent rainfall over Indonesia and the tropical West Pacific.
The North Atlantic jet stream has also been unusually strong; this can be linked to exceptional wind patterns in the stratosphere with a very intense polar vortex.
This paper documents the record-breaking weather and flooding, considers the potential drivers and discusses whether climate change contributed to the severity of the weather and its impacts.

总览
英国在这个冬天受一系列冬季风暴的严重影响,最终造成严重的沿岸破坏和广泛地区持续洪涝。
这个时期的(极端)天气乃由重大的太平洋和北大西洋喷流的扰动造成,部分也由印尼和西太平洋热带地区的持续降雨造成。
北大西洋喷流不寻常的强,这与平流层内不寻常的风分布和非常强的极涡有关。
本文记下破纪录的天气和水灾,考虑潜在的成因以及讨论(全球)气候变化是否导致是次天灾的严重程度和影响的主因。

Although no individual storm can be regarded as exceptional, the clustering and persistence of the storms is highly unusual. December and January were exceptionally wet. For England and Wales this was one of, if not the most, exceptional periods of winter rainfall in at least 248 years. The two-month total (December + January) of 372.2mm for the southeast and central southern England region is the wettest any 2-month period in the series from 1910.
虽然我们无法将任何风暴界定为异常,但风暴趋向密集和持续却是极不寻常。(英国2013年)12月和(2014年)1月异常湿润。英格兰和威尔士经历了248年来最高/其中一个最高冬季雨量的时期。英格兰东南和中南部的 12月和1月两个月总和雨量达372.2mm,是1910年以来最多雨的两个月。

During January and into February the tracks of the storms fell at a relatively low latitude, giving severe gales along the south and west coasts and pushing the bulk of the ocean wave energy toward the southwest of Ireland and England. Peak wave periods were exceptionally long; each wave carried a lot of energy and was able to inflict significant damage on coastal infrastructure.
在一月和二月初期间,(大西洋的温带)气旋路径纬度偏低,为(英国)南岸和西岸带来严重烈风,并将大量海水能量推向爱尔兰和英格兰西南部。波浪巅峰时期异常的长,每个浪都带有大量能量并对沿岸设施造成严重破坏。

In a series from 1883, flow rates on the River Thames remained exceptionally high for longer than in any previous flood episode. Correspondingly, floodplain inundations were extensive and protracted.
The severe weather in the UK coincided with exceptionally cold weather in Canada and the USA. These extreme weather events on both sides of the Atlantic were linked to a persistent pattern of perturbations to the jet stream over the Pacific Ocean and North America. There is a strong association with the stormy weather experienced in the UK during December and January and the up-stream perturbations to the jet stream over North America and the North Pacific.
The major changes in the Pacific jet stream were driven by a persistent pattern of enhanced rainfall over Indonesia and the tropical West Pacific associated with higher than normal ocean temperatures in that region.
The North Atlantic jet stream has also been unusually strong; this can be linked to an unusually strong westerly phase of the stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), which in turn has driven a very deep polar vortex and strong polar night jet.
As yet, there is no definitive answer on the possible contribution of climate change to the recent storminess, rainfall amounts and the consequent flooding. This is in part due to the highly variable nature of UK weather and climate.
从1883年以来的资料看,泰晤士河流量维持异常高位,且汛期比以前维持异常长时间,涝原泛滥情况广泛而持久。英国的极端天气巧合地域美加地区的极端严寒天气同时发生。这些大西洋两侧的极端气候事件与太平洋与大西洋喷流的持续扰动模式有关。英国12-1月所经历的强风暴与北美和北太平洋的高层喷流扰动密切关联。太平洋喷流主要改变乃由印尼和热带西太的持续较强降雨 - 正距平水温 - 有密切关系。北大西洋喷流也异常的强劲,可能与平流层准两年振荡 Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) 异常强劲的西风位相[1]有关,这造成非常深邃的极涡和强极地冬季喷流。不过,究竟气候变化造成多少上述风暴、雨量和洪水,目前并未有的确切答案。这是因为英国天气气候本身就是多变的。

Sea level along the English Channel has already risen during the 20th century due to ocean warming and melting of glaciers. With the warming we are already committed to over the next few decades, a further overall 11-16cm of sea level rise is likely by 2030, relative to 1990, of which at least two-thirds will be due to the effects of climate change.
Recent studies suggest an increase in the intensity of Atlantic storms that take a more southerly track, typical of this winter’s extreme weather. Also the long-term warming of the
在20世纪,英伦海峡的海面高度因海洋变暖和冰川融化而上升。在未来数十年我们早已种下了不小暖化因素的情况下,至2030年海平面会相对于1990年再上升11-16厘米,而至少三分之二是由全球气候变化造成。最近的研究认为大西洋风暴将增强并采取更偏南的路径,也就是今冬典型的极端天气(模式)。同时,

注[1] 准两年振荡 Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) :指的是位于热带平流层底部, 赤道区域性的东风和西风之间的准周期性振荡,平均周期约28-29个月。
[spidyl2009于2014-02-18 14:30编辑了帖子]
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  • wusifeng
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    第1部分的第三段漏翻了
    2014-02-17 19:18
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    2014-02-17 19:18
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spidyl2009
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发布于:2014-02-17 15:20
P.3
sub-tropical Atlantic will also act to enhance the amount of moisture being carried by storms that take this more southerly track.
There is an increasing body of evidence that extreme daily rainfall rates are becoming more intense, and that the rate of increase is consistent with what is expected from fundamental physics. There is no evidence to counter the basic premise that a warmer world will lead to more intense daily and hourly heavy rain events.
More research is urgently needed to deliver robust detection of changes in storminess and daily/hourly rain rates. The attribution of these changes to anthropogenic global warming requires climate models of sufficient resolution to capture storms and their associated rainfall. Such models are now becoming available and should be deployed as soon as possible to provide a solid evidence base for future investments in flood and coastal defences.
同时,亚热带大西洋地区的长期暖化会增加偏南路径风暴所携带的水气。目前有越来越多的证据指极端日降雨率正在加强,增加速度与基本物理学预测结果一致。“世界变得更暖将导致更强烈的每日和每小时的大雨”此一基础述说,暂时并无证据反驳。
我们急需更多证据去确实地探测风暴及日雨量和时雨量的改变。如何将这些改变归因於全球暖化,需要解析度足够仔细的气象模型以捕捉风暴及相关降雨。这些模型正逐步面世并应该尽快得以应用,为未来水利及堤防投资提供确实的理据基础。
[spidyl2009于2014-02-17 21:54编辑了帖子]
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    2014-02-17 19:36
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发布于:2014-02-17 18:22
      在此插几句,此篇报告内容比较长,欢迎各位版友参与翻译与讨论。由于此类新闻报告翻译的整体难度会比定期翻译或JTWC预报理由翻译难,加分尺度我也会相对加大。凡是参与翻译者至少获得贡献和好评奖励,具体评分视翻译量和质量而定,为了避免翻译冲突,有需要翻译的最好向楼主或版主预约。另发言质量高者也可获得相应评分奖励,希望大家积极参与!
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发布于:2014-02-18 12:48
P.4
 
Record-breaking Weather
Throughout December, January and February 2013/14, the UK has been affected by an exceptional run of severe winter storms, culminating in the coastal damage and widespread flooding from January onwards. The impacts on individuals, businesses and infrastructure have been substantial. This paper documents the statistics of these storms, how unusual they were in the terms of past records, and considers the global context in which these storms formed. Finally the question of whether the intensity of these storms, and their impacts on flooding, has been influenced by climate change will be considered.
 
破纪录天气
2013/14年的整个十二月,一月,以及二月期间英国受到超常的一系列猛烈冬季风暴影响,最终造成自一月起的沿岸破坏与大面积水灾,对个人,商业与设施造成深远的影响。本文章记录了这些风暴的统计资料,在过往记录中它们有多么不寻常,并从环球角度研究这些风暴是如何形成的,最后的问题将考虑这些风暴的强度与其对洪水的影响是否受到气候变化所左右。


During December widespread high wind speeds were recorded across UK, as a sequence of deep lows tracked across or to the north of the country. The storm on 4th-5th December generated a major North Sea storm surge event, which coincided with one of the highest tides of the year and threatened much of the east coast in a similar manner to the 1953 event. With improved coastal defences built by the environment agency and accurate early warnings several days in advance major damage was avoided. The Environment Agency Thames Barrier was raised to protect London from the largest tide recorded at Southend since it became operational.
 
十二月期间当一连串深低压经过或从北掠过英国时,全国上下记录到广泛的高风速。十二月4-5日的风暴产生了一场特大北海风暴潮事件,与当年最高的潮汐之一同时发生,以类似于1953年水淹事件的方式对大部分东海岸造成威胁。由环境署改进的海防工事和提前数日的准确预警使大型损失得以避免,环境署泰晤士河水闸被升起为自运行来在索森德观测到的最大浪潮下保护伦敦。

A measure of the extent and severity of the December storms can be seen in the number of stations from the observational network that recorded maximum gust speeds greater than 50, 60, or 70 Knots (excluding stations with an altitude >=250m and four exposed offshore sites). For each of the thresholds the number of high wind gusts in December 2013 is higher than for any other December back to 1969 (Figure 1), and is one of the windiest calendar months for the UK since January 1993.

十二月风暴的影响范围和严重程度从录得最高阵风超过50,60,或70kt的观测网站点数量上可见一斑(排除海拔≥250米的站点与四个离岸暴露场地)。对于每个级别来说2013年十二月高阵风的数量大于1969年以来其他任何十二月(图1),同时也是自1993年一月来英国最多风的月份。
 

图片:1.png


Figure 1: Record of the number of stations reporting wind gusts in excess of 60 kts during December.
图1:在十二月报出阵风超过60kt站点的数量记录。
 
The stormy weather continued into January with a major storm on 5th and 6th January, which caused widespread coastal damage and flooding in southern England. With a brief respite in January the stormy weather returned with the first week of February seeing a sequence of very deep depressions running into the UK with very high winds and storm surges that caused substantial damage along the south coast.

风暴天气持续到一月带来一月5日和6日的一个大型风暴,它在英格兰南部导致大面积沿岸破坏与水灾。一月(中旬)的一次短暂歇息后风暴天气于二月第一周回归,一系列极深低压伴随超高风速和风暴潮在南部沿海造成大幅破坏。
 
The exceptional duration of the stormy weather and the clustering of deep depressions has been a notable feature of this winter. Rainfall records were broken in both December and January (Figure 2). Scotland had its wettest December since records began in 1910. In southern England, January was the wettest recorded since 1910 (Figure 3), and the statistics suggest that this was one of, if not the most, exceptional periods for winter rainfall across
England and Wales in at least 248 years. The two-month total (December + January) of 372.2mm for the southeast and central southern England region is the wettest of any 2-month period in the series from 1910.
 
风暴天气特长的持续时间与深低压集群已成为本冬季的显著现象。十二月和一月打破了多个降雨记录(图2)。苏格兰创下自1910年有记录以来最多雨的十二月。在英格兰南部,一月降雨量为1910年以来最高(图3),也是英格兰和威尔士至少248年来其中之一若不是最反常的冬季降雨时期。东南部与英格兰中南部地区的两月总雨量(十二月加一月)达到372.2毫米,为1910年起降雨量最高的两个月时期。

图片:1.png


Figure 2: Rainfall for December 2013 and January 2014 from the observational network, showing the distribution of rainfall anomalies as a % of the long-term average from 1981-2010.
图2:观测网的2013年十二月和2014年一月降雨量显示根据1981-2010年长期均值的降雨距平百分比分布。
[henry4867于2014-02-18 13:58编辑了帖子]
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  • wusifeng
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    2014-02-18 17:53
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    2014-02-18 17:53
Metropolitan tornadoes: St louis(1896) Waco(1953) Topeka(1966) Lubbock(1970) Miami(1997) Nashville(1998) Salt Lake City(1999) Dallas/Fort Worth(2000) Brooklyn(2007) Atlanta(2008) Raleigh(2011)
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henry4867
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发布于:2014-02-19 05:40
P.5
 
A particularly exceptional aspect of January 2014 has been the number of days with rain across southern England (Figure 3, lower panel), which far exceeded anything previously recorded for January. Overall there have been very few dry days since 12th December. This continuous sequence of rain events led to increasing saturation of the ground so that widespread flooding became inevitable when the major storm of 5th and 6th January arrived over the UK. The Thames, in particular, recorded some of the highest flow rates ever measured at this time of year. In January 2014, the Environment Agency Thames Barrier was raised on 13 consecutive times to protect people and property as high fluvial flows and high spring tides coincided. Rainfall continued to be well above average through January, giving little respite for areas already affected by flooding especially in southern England, and notably Somerset.
 
2014年一月格外反常的一个方面是英格兰南部的降雨天数(图3下部分),其远超过以往一月任何记录。整体来说自十二月12日起就很少有过干燥时期,该持续性的一系列降雨事件使土地饱和度不断增加以至于一月5日和6日的大型风暴到达时洪水泛滥无法避免,尤其是泰晤士河录得同时期从未测到过的高流速。在2014年一月,当高流量与高潮讯重合时环境署泰晤士河水闸为保护人民与财产被连续13次升起。一月期间降雨量持续远高于平均值导致已深受洪水影响的地区少有喘息机会,特别在英格兰南部和萨默塞特。

As already noted this winter has been exceptionally stormy. A particularly intense depression passed to the north of UK on 24th December with Stornoway recording a mean sea level pressure of 936mb (Figure 4). Pressures below 950mb for UK land stations are relatively rare, and this is the lowest such value at a UK land station for many years. Based on an analysis by Burt (2007) it is potentially the lowest land station pressure record since 1886. This storm led to widespread disruption to travel and the loss of power to hundreds of thousands of homes over the Christmas period.

正如上文所述本冬季风暴已经异常繁多,一个极为强烈的低压在十二月24日往北经过英国时斯托诺韦录到936mb平均海平面气压(图4)。对于英国陆地站点来讲低于950mb的(海平面)气压相对罕见,而这更是英国陆地站点多年来的最低数值。根据Burt(2007)的一项分析,它可能是1886年以来陆地站点记录到的最低气压。该风暴在圣诞节时期造成大范围交通阻碍与几十万户居民断电。
[henry4867于2014-02-19 07:44编辑了帖子]
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Metropolitan tornadoes: St louis(1896) Waco(1953) Topeka(1966) Lubbock(1970) Miami(1997) Nashville(1998) Salt Lake City(1999) Dallas/Fort Worth(2000) Brooklyn(2007) Atlanta(2008) Raleigh(2011)
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发布于:2014-02-20 10:21
P.6
 

图片:1.png



图片:BfaOVDQCIAAxhFb.png


Figure 3: Time series of total rainfall (mm) for January in southern England from records going back to 1910 (top panel), and the number of days with rain (>1mm) in southern England from records going back to 1961 (bottom panel).
图3:追溯到1910年记录的一月英格兰南部总降雨量时间序列表(上部分)和追溯到1961年记录的英格兰南部降雨量>1mm天数(下部分)。
 

图片:snow-nemo2.png


Figure 4: Surface pressure chart for 12z, 24th December showing the formation of an intense depression to the north of Scotland.
图4:十二月24日12z的表面气压图表显示一个强烈低压在苏格兰以北形成。
 
This sequence of storms continued into January 2014, with a deep depression forming over the North Atlantic on 5th January. A notable feature of this storm was the size of the depression (Figure 5), which affected the whole North Atlantic. Storms of such size and intensity are rare. This meant that the fetch and strength of the winds built up a huge swell with some of highest recorded wave heights reaching the shores of Western Europe. The west coasts of the UK were severely affected by the storm surge and the exceptionally high waves resulting in extensive damage to sea defences. Rainfall associated with this system also caused extensive flooding in areas already saturated by the wet weather in the preceding months.
 
这一系列风暴持续到2014年一月带来一个深低压于一月5日在北大西洋形成、该风暴的显著特点是低压区的面积(图5),其影响了整个北大西洋。类似体积与强度的风暴是罕见的,这意味着风的区域和强度将产生巨大浪涌伴随一些有记录以来最高的风暴潮到达西欧海岸。英国西岸受风暴潮与特高大浪严重影响导致海防工事遭到重大破坏。系统带来的降雨也在已经被前数月潮湿天气饱和的地区造成广泛洪水。
[henry4867于2014-02-21 02:58编辑了帖子]
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Metropolitan tornadoes: St louis(1896) Waco(1953) Topeka(1966) Lubbock(1970) Miami(1997) Nashville(1998) Salt Lake City(1999) Dallas/Fort Worth(2000) Brooklyn(2007) Atlanta(2008) Raleigh(2011)
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发布于:2014-03-01 10:22
来填坑了。。。
P.7

图片:1.png


图片:BfaOVDQCIAAxhFb.png


Figure 5: Surface pressure charts for 12z, 5th January and 00z, 6th January showing the strength and size of the
depression and its associated frontal systems.
图5:一月5日12z和一月5日00z的表面气压图表显示低压的强度和面积与其相关锋面系统
 
Throughout the development of the storm that affected the UK on 5th, 6th and 7th January, the Met Office ocean and wave forecast models were giving very useful guidance. On the global scale, significant wave heights in excess of 16m were predicted to the south west of the UK, consistent with other estimates of wave heights exceeding 15m (50ft) (Figure 6, left panel). Higher resolution forecasts using the UK 4km model showed that these waves would reach UK shores as a strong, very long period swell (Figure 6, right panel). Consequently, each wave carried a lot of energy and was able to inflict significant damage on coastal infrastructure.

Met Office海洋与波浪预报模型在一月5日,6日和7日影响英国风暴的生成时期提供了非常有用的向导。全球尺度上,超过16米的极端浪高被预测在英国西南方向,与其他大于15米(50英尺)的浪高估计一致(图6左部分)。解析度更高的预报使用英国4公里(解析度)模型显示这些海浪会以强大及长周期的浪涌到达英国(图6右部分)。因此每个波浪携带非常多的能量可以对沿岸设施造成严重破坏。
 
Storms generating waves of this height are not particularly unusual for the northeast Atlantic, but several factors mark out the event on 6th and 7th January. The track of the storm fell at a relatively low latitude for an event of this type, pushing the bulk of the wave energy towards the southwest of Ireland and England. Peak wave periods were exceptionally long (even compared with storms of similar wave height occurring in December), and enhanced the impact of the waves at the coastline. The combination of significant wave height and peak period is likely to mark out the storm as a one in 5-10 year event in the southwest of the UK, based on experience of waves over the last 30 years. In terms of the coastal system as a whole, pre-existing river and groundwater levels plus impact on coastal sediment levels of a sequence of highly energetic wave events during December may make this is a far rarer event.
 
制造相同浪高的风暴对于东北大西洋并非特别少见,但数个因素使一月6日和7日的事件颖脱而出。风暴路径在与该类事件通常相较偏低的纬度上,向英格兰和爱尔兰西南推动大量波浪能量。巅峰波浪周期极长(即便与十二月其他产生相似浪高的风暴相比),增强了大浪对海岸线的影响。根据过去30年来应对海浪的经验,极端浪高与周期的组合很可能标识出本风暴为英国西南部5-10年级的事件。从整个海岸系统来讲,已存在的河流与地下水位加上十二月期间一连串高能波浪对沿海沉积物含量的影响让其成为远更罕见的事件
[henry4867于2014-03-01 14:15编辑了帖子]
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  • wusifeng
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    填坑速度不够快呦
    2014-03-01 11:03
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Metropolitan tornadoes: St louis(1896) Waco(1953) Topeka(1966) Lubbock(1970) Miami(1997) Nashville(1998) Salt Lake City(1999) Dallas/Fort Worth(2000) Brooklyn(2007) Atlanta(2008) Raleigh(2011)
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发布于:2014-03-07 12:16
P.8
 

图片:S2000304121707_L1A_HDUN_EuropeanStorm_md.jpg


Figure 6: Significant wave heights (m) from the Met Office global wave model valid for 06z on 6th January (left panel)
and peak period (seconds) between waves from the UK 4km model for 18z on 6th January.
图6:一月6日06z生效的Met Office全球波浪模型极端浪高(米)和英国4公里模型一月6日18z的波浪间巅峰周期(秒)

With sea defences already weakened the storms that affected southern England on 4th and 5th February, and
expected for 7th and 8th February, (Figure 7) have caused serious localised damage to infrastructure. The strength
the waves, driven onshore by the very strong winds, and the consequent height of the storm surge produced very
dangerous conditions along southern coasts. The heavy rainfall that accompanied these systems also led to
worsening conditions in areas already affected by prolonged flooding.

由于海防工事已经弱化,二月4日和5日与二月7日和8日影响英格兰南部的风暴对建筑造成严重区域性破坏(图7)。由强风推动上岸的波浪力度,与随之而来的风暴潮高度在南部沿海产生非常危险的状况。这些系统伴随的强降雨也为已经受到长期淹水的地区带来加重境况。
 

图片:1962709_1400118233585042_1101712618_n.jpg


Figure 7: Surface pressure chart for 00z, 5th February showing the intense depression to the south west of the UK
(left panel) and the expected chart for 00z, 8th February showing the potential for an equally severe storm (right
panel).
图7:二月5日00z的表面气压图表显示英国西南的强低压(左)和显示二月8日00z潜在相同烈度风暴的预测图表(右)
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    内容较少,所以贡献就不加了
    2014-03-07 20:25
Metropolitan tornadoes: St louis(1896) Waco(1953) Topeka(1966) Lubbock(1970) Miami(1997) Nashville(1998) Salt Lake City(1999) Dallas/Fort Worth(2000) Brooklyn(2007) Atlanta(2008) Raleigh(2011)
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