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发布于:2014-03-10 14:32
P.9
新人第一次发帖,谢谢大家!
Recording-breaking Flooding
打破记录的洪水
The exceptional run of severe winter storms which carried with them large amounts of rain led to very serious flooding across southern England. With catchments across most of the UK saturated by mid-December, the full gamut of flood manifestations-tidal, pluvial (flash), fluvial and groundwater- were experienced over the ensuing seven to eight weeks.
严寒冬季的风暴的异常出现给英格兰南部带来大量降水,导致了严重洪灾的发生。到12月中旬,英国全境的水域出现了储水饱和,包括潮水、间歇性洪水、河水和地下水在内的水域在接下来的七至八周内出现了一系列洪灾的征兆。
Initially, the focus was on tidal flooding. In the first week of December, eastern and southern England experienced their highest storm surge since the extensive tidal flooding in January 1953. The flooding, whilst extensive, was considerably less than the 1953 event (1953: 307 deaths, 24,000 properties and 65,000 hectares compares with 2013: 0 flood related deaths, 1,400 properties and 6,800 hectares) due to the warning response and flood defenses put in place by the Environment Agency and others since 1953.
最初出现的征兆是潮水溢满。在12月的第一周内,英格兰东部和南部遭遇了自从1953年1月那场严重的涨潮以来的最高的风暴出现记录。这次的洪灾尽管影响范围很大,可是由于及时的预警信号和环境署及时开展的防洪措施以及其他有效的手段, 同1953年的那场洪灾造成307例死亡、24000起财产损失和65000公顷土地受灾相比,2013的洪灾仅仅造成了0起死亡、1400起财产损失和6800公顷土地受灾,总体损失相对较少。
The damage was moderate in comparison to that major disaster, but substantial evacuations were required (e.g. in Boston, Lincolnshire) and the ingress of seawater damaged a number of important wetlands (e.g. Blakeney, Norfolk). High tides, exacerbated by intense low pressure systems and frequent strong south-westerly winds, continued to contribute to coastal and estuarine flood risk well into 2014.
尽管同1953年的大灾难相比,这次的灾害相对较轻,可是出现大量居民的疏散工作需要进行(例如在林肯郡的波士顿进行疏散)以及在许多重要的湿地处出现海水倒灌现象(例如诺福克郡的布莱克尼出现该现象)。在强烈的低压系统和盛行的西南风的综合作用下,洪水造成的沿海、沿江的洪灾会一直延续到2014年。
Thereafter, the second half of December and early January witnessed a succession of very deep cyclonic systems. Particularly influential in the hydrological context was the system which brought notable rainfall totals (>30 mm, with some exceptionally high totals in western uploads) to many areas on the 23rd/24th December. This triggered flash flooding, particularly in south-east England, and a steep increase in river flows across most of the UK. Estimated outflows from Great Britain remained close to the highest ever recorded during late December (Figure 8) and, subsequently, throughout most of January across large parts of England and Wales (Figure 9).
紧接着,在12月的下半部分和1月前期,会出现一系列非常深厚的气旋系统。 这些系统的水文学影响是,它们在12月的23号和24号在许多地区带来了显著的降水量(大于30mm,一些显著的大值多出现在西部地区)。这触发了大规模的洪灾,尤其是在英格兰的西南部尤为严峻,并且在英国全境河水水位涨势明显。英国全境的地表水位从12月底一直保持着最高纪录(详见图8),并且紧接着在1月份期间,英格兰和威尔士的大部分情况类似(详见图9).
 

描述:Figure 8

图片:1.PNG

Figure 8

图8:2013年英国全境水域流出量(黑色线,单位m^3 s^(-1));1961-2013年逐日最大流量(蓝色), 逐日最小流量(粉红色), 平均逐日流量(灰色线)
Relative to the average, runoff rates were generally most outstanding across southern and central England and the singular nature of this episode is well illustrated by flow patterns on the Thames. In a series from 1883, flows at Kingston (close to the tidal limit) remained above 275 m^3 s^(-1) for longer than in any previous flood episode (Table 1), and continue to exceed this threshold into early February. Correspondingly, floodplain inundations were extensive and protracted.
相较于平均水平来说,英格兰南部和中部的地表径流流量最为显著,可以从泰晤士河的流量这一个例子看出。金士顿的流量(极其接近潮水的限制)达到了275 m^3 s^(-1)超过了从1883年以来的任意一场洪水事件(表1),并且这个高值记录一直保持到2月初。相应的,受灾平原的受灾面积持续扩大、受灾时间持续延长。
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发布于:2014-03-11 17:06

P.10
感觉有一些地方翻译的不是很自信,不过我相信大家都是怀着一颗热爱TC和提高英语的心来的。我会继续加油的!!请同志们监督!哈哈
, owing to the succession of low pressure
systems producing rainfall over statured ground. A preliminary analysis suggest
that out flows aggregated over six weeks were the greatest since the 1947
floods-the most extensive in England and Wales during the 20th century.

(接前页上句) 相应的,由于低压系统的持续停留使得饱和地面上积聚大量雨水,受灾平原的受灾面积持续扩大、受灾时间持续延长。一个初步的分析指出六个星期内的合计流出量是自1947年洪灾以来的最大记录,那场洪水是20世纪以来英格兰和威尔士境内最强的一场。

描述:figure.9

图片:2.PNG

figure.9


 
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
 
 
 

 

9: 2013年全年和20141月内泰晤士河、塞文河、特伦托河、约克郡的乌斯河和阿斯科河的总流量(黑色,
 
)1969-2013年逐日最大流量(蓝色)和逐日最小流量(粉红色),逐日平均流量(灰色)

描述:table.1

图片:3.PNG

table.1


图片:table-1.2.PNG


In December and January, a few rivers
(including the Mole, Wey and Medway, which, on the basis of preliminary data,
recorded their highest flows since the extreme floods of September 1968)
registered outstanding maximum flows. However, generally, the peak flows
registered during the recent flooding were not extreme; On the Thames the
highest flow in 2014 has been exceeded during 14 earlier floods (most prior to
1950; Figure 10).

201312月和20141月,一些河流(包括摩尔河、韦河和梅德韦河,这些河流的初步数据来自从19689月的洪灾的高流量记录大值)出现显著的流量大值。然而,近期的洪水中流量峰值尚未达到最高程度.2014年泰晤士河的最高流量记录早已超过了之前的14次洪水.(10)
The
floodplain inundations caused major disruption to transport, agriculture and
restricted sporting and recreational activities, and resulted in severe
difficulties for some low-lying hamlets (most notably in the Somerset Levels).
However, given the overall volume of runoff, the amount of property flooding at
the national scale was relatively modest.

受灾地区洪水泛滥导致交通瘫痪、农业减产、体育和娱乐等相关领域停滞,并且一些处于低洼地区的小村庄的生产生活产生极大困难(尤其以英格兰格拉帕斯伯里地区为一典型)。不过,如果考虑到降水总量放于全国领域尺度上考虑,洪灾危害相对较轻。
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发布于:2014-03-12 20:25

P.11

图片:5.PNG



 
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
 
 
 

 

10:金士顿地区的泰晤士河流域流量归一化后逐日值(黑色,单位
 
)201312月至2014年一月流量极大值(红线)


Groundwater levels were generally below the
seasonal average at the end of the autumn in 2013, but as infiltration rates
increased markedly through December, the recovery in groundwater levels was
dramatic in many aquifer outcrop areas-the southern Chalk in particular. At
Tilshead, on Salisbury Plain, levels rose by 20 meters in around a fortnight
and the well was artesian by late January (Figure.11). In Suscex the Chilgrove House
well was also overflowing-there have been around six similar artesian episodes
in a record extending back to 1836. As a consequence, examples of groundwater
flooding, first noted in mid-December (e.g. in Dorset and Hampshire) with an
expectation that more widespread flooding will occur as groundwater levels rise
in the slower-responding aquifers (e.g. the Chilterns).

2013年秋季末地下水水位低于季节平均值,但是在201312月期间水位暴涨迅猛,在许多地面水层区域,尤其以乔克地区南部最为典型,地下水水位恢复明显。在索尔斯堡平原威尔特郡的提尔施尔德,到20141月底,地下水位一夜之间暴涨20米并且水井水位溢满至地面(11)。在英格兰南部的苏塞尔斯地区,Chilgrove公司旗下的水井也都出现溢满现象,从1836年至今已累计有6起水井溢出事件。 直到12月中旬地下水溢出事件才被人们注意到(在多赛特郡和汉普郡被首先发现),人们普遍认为在对于地下水位急剧上升的响应较为缓慢的区域(例如,白金汉郡的奇尔特恩地区)一场更大的洪灾即将到来。

图片:1.PNG




11:威尔特郡的提尔施尔德地区地下水位线(黑色),1966-2013年的记录最大值(蓝色)、最小值(红色)和平均水位(灰色)
Soils are likely to remain close to saturation
into the early spring, continuing the risk of floodplain inundations in
response to even moderate amounts of rainfall. The lagged response of
groundwater levels to the persistent rainfall is likely to contribute to
further flooding in vulnerable acquifer areas of southern England.

进入早春时,土壤极接近饱和。受灾地区对于哪怕一丁点的微弱降水都会有剧烈反应。地下水位对于持续降水的延后效应极有可能在英格兰受灾地区导致又一次洪灾。
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发布于:2014-03-16 09:01
P21
Has climate change been a contributing factor?

气候变化是否成为影响因素?

It is natural, with the scale of the impacts of recent stormy weather that this question is asked, and there are three aspects that need to be considered. The first relates to the impact of sea level rise on coastal flooding; the second relates to storminess (i.e. the number and/or strength of the storms); and the third relates to rainfall. For rainfall this refers not only to seasonal or monthly means, but also to the intensity and frequency of daily, and even hourly, heavy rain events.

在最近风暴天气的巨大影响下,这个 问题很自然地被提出了,并且对于这 个问题,有三个方面需要考虑。第一 个指海平面上升对海岸洪水的影响; 第二个指风暴本身(例如数目和强 度);第三个指降水量。在降水量方 面,这不仅指季度或月度平均,还指 每日的雨强和频繁度,甚至指每小时 的大雨事件。

Sea level along the English Channel has already risen by about 12cm during the 20th century12; this is over and above the increases associated with sinking of the southern part of the UK due to isostatic adjustment13 from the last Ice Age. With the warming we are already committed to over the next few decades, a further overall 11-16cm of sea level rise is likely by 2030, relative to 1990, of which at least two-thirds will be due to the effects of climate change14. We are very confident that sea level will continue to rise over coming decades as the planet continues to warm, and these numbers represent our current best estimate for the UK. Clearly sea level rise from whatever source has to be factored into discussions about resilience to coastal and river inundations.

在20世纪,英吉利海峡的海平面已经 升高大约12厘米。这已经超出了英国 南部由于上一次冰期后的均衡调整而 下沉的深度。和1990年相比,到 2030年,将会有整整11-16厘米的海 平面上升,其中至少三分之二将会由 气候变化的效应引起。由于地球继续 变暖,我们非常有信心肯定海平面将 不止在来临的十年里继续上升。这些 数字也代表了我们最新最好的关于英 国的预测。很显然,无论是什么来 源,海平面上升不得不成为在关于海 岸、河流泛滥的恢复的讨论中的因素 之一。

In seeking to answer questions about the impact of climate change on severe weather, there are two distinct steps to be taken. The first is to detect a change in either the frequency or intensity of storminess or rainfall events that is more than just the natural variability in UK weather. UK weather is notoriously volatile and so detection is particularly challenging. Severe storms have always affected the UK and are documented in many historical records. The intensity of recent storms is unusual, as the climatological records discussed earlier indicate, but not necessarily unprecedented.

在寻找关于气候变化对恶劣天气的影 响的答案时,要经过两个不同的步 骤。第一步是查出在风暴频率、强度 或者降雨事件上比英国天气自然变化 更大的改变。由于英国天气的变化多 端是臭名昭著的,因此这个调查也是 富有挑战性的。由于强烈的风暴总是 影响英国并证明了许多历史纪录,因 此即使根据之前讨论的气候纪录所分 析,最近的风暴强度十分罕见,但也 不一定是没有先例的。

A comprehensive study of trends in storminess, for the period 1871-2010 from an ensemble of reanalyses by Wang et al. (2013)15 provides some important insights. They show a robust signal of increasing numbers of strong winter cyclones and with increasing intensity for the high latitude North Atlantic (Figure 21), covering the region to the north of the UK and including Iceland. This is associated with a reduction in storminess further south and supports a wide body of evidence for a poleward shift of the Atlantic storm
一项来自Wang et al的在1871-2010 时期的多种再分析的关于风暴趋势的 综合研究提供了一些重要的理解。它 们显示了强烈冬季气旋发生数量上增 加以及在高纬度北大西洋(包括英国 北部和冰岛)的强度增加(图21)的 清晰信号。这和更远的南方的风暴减 少趋势相联系,并广泛支持关于大西 洋风暴出现向极移动路径的证据。
however, their analysis of changes in storminess further south over the mid-latitude North Atlantic – the path of the recent storms – suggests a more complex signal. Although the number of strong winter cyclones has not increased since 1871, the mean intensity has. Notably, for very strong cyclones, the mean intensity has increased significantly. A more comprehensive study of storms affecting the UK is needed to explore these findings in more detail, but the current evidence does suggest an increase in storminess.

不过,他们的关于最近中纬度大西洋 的南部的风暴移动路径变化的分析提 出一种更复杂的信号。虽然从1871至 今强烈冬季风暴的数量没有上升,但 它们的平均强度上升了。值得注意的 是,非常强烈的气旋的平均强度出现 了明显上升。虽然现在需要一个对于 影响英国的风暴的更详细、更有说服 力的研究,但最近的证据已经说明了 风暴数量的增加。

12 Wahl et al. 2013: Observed mean sea level changes around the North Sea coastline from 1800 to present. Earth-Science Reviews, 124, 51–67.

13 Isostatic rebound refers to the rise of land masses that were depressed by the weight of ice during the last glacial maximum. For the UK this is seen in increasing land heights over Scotland and northern England and falling land heights (sinking) over southern regions. See Bradley et al. 2008: Glacial isostatic adjustment of the British Isles: New constraints from GPS measurements of crustal

motion. Geophysical Journal International, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246x.2008.04033.x.

14 www.ukcip.org.uk/wordpress/wp-content/PDFs/UKCIP_sea-level.pdf

15 Wang et al. 2012: Trends and low frequency variability of extra-tropical cyclone activity in the ensemble of twentieth century reanalysis. Climate Dynamics, 40, 2775-2800.

注释: 12、wahl et al.2013:从1800到现在 的对于北部海岸线的平均海平面变化 的观察。Earth-Science Reviews,124,51-67 13、isolate rebound指在上一次冰川 最多时被冰的重量压下的地块的上 升。对于英国,表现为苏格兰和英格 兰北部的陆地高度上升和南部地区的 陆地下沉。本解释来自Bradley et al.2008
:英国三岛的冰川恢复调整: 来自GPS测量的冰川移动新强迫。 geophysical journal international,doi:10.1111/j.1365-246x.2008.04033.x.
14、
 15、wang et al.2012:对于20世纪整 体性温带气旋的趋势和低频性的再分 析。
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P22

图21:高纬度北大西洋的冬季风暴数 目(每100000平方公里)的整体平均 系列和平均强度(10-5hPa/km2)。 粗黑色曲线是Gaussian的过滤系列。 灰色阴影显示了对于整体扩散的95% 信心。红线是1871-2010的轮廓趋 势,绿色虚线是1951-2010的轮廓趋 势。图片来自Wang et al.2012。

The persistence of the recent storminess is unusual, and although clustering of storms is quite common, the continued run of deep depressions, through December, January and on into February, is not. It is this continued run of storms that has created the exceptional flooding conditions experienced in the Somerset Levels, for example.

最近的风暴的持续是罕见的。虽然最 近的风暴群十分常见,但在12、1、2 月的深低压的下一步活动却不是。例 如,正是最近的持续风暴活动创造了 所经历的位于somerset级别的异常洪 水。

The persistence of the weather patterns affecting both the UK and also the US, where abnormally cold conditions have continued to affect the eastern and southern states through January, has raised questions about whether the jet stream is making greater excursions, north and south, and whether these waves in the jet stream are becoming more locked in one position16. This is a critical question because it raises the possibility that disruption of our usual weather patterns may be how climate change may manifest itself. The Met Office is now actively researching the best way to detect changes in the dynamics of the jet stream.

持续影响英国和美国,并在整个一月 继续为东部和南部带来异常寒冷的天 气模式已经引发关于急流是否将范围 扩大到南北两部分以及急流中的大浪 是否固定在一个位置的问题。这是一 个批判性的问题,因为它引起了这样 一种可能性:我们平常天气模式的分 裂可能是只有气候变化自己才会十分 清楚。met office现在正积极研究调查 急流动力改变的最佳方法。

Beyond the clustering of storms there is also the question of whether there is a detectable change in the amount of rain that the storms are carrying. Again this is a very difficult area because UK rainfall is highly variable in space and time. Changes in monthly, seasonal or annual mean amounts are difficult to detect so far, as the time series in Figure 3 demonstrates.

在风暴族以外,还有这样一个问题: 风暴携带的降水是否发生可调查到的 变化。但再次说明,由于英国降水的 时空分布差异很大,这是一个难点降 水规模的改变现在还。对于月度、季 度、年度平均降水规模的改变,现在 还很难调查,正如图3的时间序列说 明的那样。

However, there is now some emerging evidence that, over the UK, daily heavy rain events may be more frequent (Figure 22). What in the 1960s and 1970s might have been a 1 in 125 day event is now more likely to be a 1 in 85 day event. This supports other evidence that UK rainfall is increasing in intensity17. This increase in the frequency/intensity of extreme daily

不过,现在也有一些显示出的证据: 每日的强降水事件将会在整个英国更 加频繁(图22)。在六七十年代,平 均每125天会发生一次,而现在大概 是85天一次。这个数据支持另一个证 据,英国的降水在日极端的强度和频 率上都有所增加。

16 Francis and Vavrus, 2012: Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes. Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1029/2012GL051000;

Petoukhov et al. 2013: Quasiresonant amplification of planetary waves and recent Northern Hemisphere weather extremes. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), doi: 10.1073/pnas.1222000110.

17 Jones et al., 2012: An assessment of changes in seasonal and annual extreme rainfall in the UK between 1961 and 2009. International Journal of Climatology, 33, 1178-1194;

Maraun et al. 2008: United Kingdom daily precipitation intensity: improved early data, error estimates and an update from 2000 to 2006. International Journal of Climatology, 28, 833-842

注释: 16 Francis and Vavrus,2012:将北极 增强和中纬度地区的极端天气相联系 的证据 Geophysical Research Letters,DOI:10.1029/2012GL051000 Petoukhov et al.2013:行星波的震动 变化和最近的极端天气。 Proceedings of the National Academy of Science(PNAS) doi:10.1073/pnas,1222000110
17,jones et al.2012 对于在1961到 2009之间英国季度和年度极端降水上 的改变的评估 Maraun et al.2008 英国每日降水强 度:从2000到2006对于早期数据的 错误分析和改进
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wth0109
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rainfall events, as the planet warms and the atmosphere can hold more water, has been discussed in the literature for a number of years, and robust evidence for this is increasingly seen around the world.

由于全球变暖导致大气层能容纳更多 水汽,降水事件已经在文献中被讨论 了很多年。而且,对于这个事件的鲜 活证据正在全世界范围内逐渐增多。

图22:由气候变化告诉我们的关于每 年内发生强度百日一遇降水的频率的 时间序列。随着时间的过去,这个时 间序列给予了一个对于极端降水频率 的观察。

Furthermore, where there are sufficiently long records of hourly rainfall data, it has been shown that rain rates potentially increase with temperature at rates that exceed the simple thermodynamic Clausius-Clapeyron relationship (6-7% increase in humidity for 10C rise in temperature) between temperature and humidity(Figure 23). This can be understood through the dynamic amplification of rain-bearing systems, where the induced circulation drives greater convergence of moisture into the system and hence heavier rainfall.

更多的是,足够的长期记录每小时降 水数据显示了降水速率的潜在上升, 还包括比普通热力学克拉贝龙关系 (温度每上升一度,湿度增加6%~ 7%)大的温度上升速率(图23)。这可以在诱导循环导致水汽聚 集到系统 中和造成一星期的暴雨的降水携带系 统的猛烈增强中了解。

图23:来自位于荷兰的DEBILT的充当 长达99年的温度记录的功能的以对数 比例显示的观测到最大小时雨强(毫 米/时)的百分比。实线指不同的百分 比。仅仅注明于99%和99.9%的百分 比的灰色区域是90%信心的间隙。虚线指克拉贝龙方程的0.5次方(浅 灰)、1次方(黑)、2次方(暗红)给予的指数关系。本图来自Lenderink 和Van Meigaard2008
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