iam最小值
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2011-07-16
  • 最后登录2018-11-16
  • 粉丝238
  • 关注25
  • 发帖数12998
  • 来自
阅读:1159回复:7

[SH(13-14)]瓦努阿图以东热带低压14F-14.8S 172.0E

楼主#
更多 发布于:2014-02-24 12:11
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 24/0013 UTC 2014 UTC.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 14F CENTER [1003HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 14.8S
168E AT 232100UTC. SLOW MOVING. POSTION POOR.
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED NEAR LLCC IN THE PAST 6 HOURS. ORGANISATION
REMAINS POOR. TD14F LIES ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH IN A LOW TO MODERATE
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT JUST SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 700HPA. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEASTWARD
WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.
[iam最小值于2014-02-26 12:38编辑了帖子]
2条评分, 金钱 +3 威望 +3
  • tcfa_gw
    威望 3
    -
    2014-02-24 17:30
  • tcfa_gw
    金钱 3
    -
    2014-02-24 17:30
喜欢0 评分2
iam最小值
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2011-07-16
  • 最后登录2018-11-16
  • 粉丝238
  • 关注25
  • 发帖数12998
  • 来自
1楼#
发布于:2014-02-24 12:15
可见光上看不出什么东西,可能是数值预报的擦过斐济的系统。
 

图片:SHGMSF.jpg

回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
Mitch
禁止发言-干空气
禁止发言-干空气
  • 注册日期2013-11-14
  • 最后登录2018-09-18
  • 粉丝122
  • 关注0
  • 发帖数5600
  • 来自
2楼#
发布于:2014-02-24 15:11
用户被禁言,该主题自动屏蔽!
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
t02436
顶级超台
顶级超台
  • 注册日期2013-07-16
  • 最后登录2018-11-16
  • 粉丝71
  • 关注0
  • 发帖数5958
  • 来自
3楼#
发布于:2014-02-25 00:44
NRL编号92P

20140224.92P.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.15S.165E
2条评分, 金钱 +3 威望 +3
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分(2)
t02436
顶级超台
顶级超台
  • 注册日期2013-07-16
  • 最后登录2018-11-16
  • 粉丝71
  • 关注0
  • 发帖数5958
  • 来自
4楼#
发布于:2014-02-25 12:06
JTWC: LOW
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.4S 172.7E,
APPROXIMATELY 305 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION FLARING ALONG
THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL TROUGH EVIDENT
IN A 242125Z ASCAT PASS. THIS DISTURBANCE LIES BENEATH AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 30
DEGREES CELSIUS AND CYCLONIC HORIZONTAL WIND SHEAR INDUCED BY STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EQUATORWARD OF THE DISTURBANCE ALSO FAVOR
DEVELOPMENT. MULTIPLE NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. BECAUSE A CLOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER HAS NOT YET DEVELOPED, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

图片:abpwsair.jpg

[iam最小值于2014-02-25 13:12编辑了帖子]
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
iam最小值
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2011-07-16
  • 最后登录2018-11-16
  • 粉丝238
  • 关注25
  • 发帖数12998
  • 来自
5楼#
发布于:2014-02-25 13:17
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 24/2328 UTC 2014 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14F CENTRE [1002HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 14.8S 172.0E
AT 242100UTC. TD14F SLOW MOVING. POSTION POOR BASED ON MTSAT VIS/IR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES
CELCIUS.
ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. CONVECTION
HAS INCREASED NEAR LLCC PAST 12 HOURS. TD14F LIES ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT JUST SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE AND
EAST OF AN UPPER TROUGH. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 700HPA.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEASTWARD
WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

这张图片也能较清楚的看到15F,斐济西侧的环流还是很明显。
 

图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif

回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
t02436
顶级超台
顶级超台
  • 注册日期2013-07-16
  • 最后登录2018-11-16
  • 粉丝71
  • 关注0
  • 发帖数5958
  • 来自
6楼#
发布于:2014-02-25 13:58
JTWC: MEDIUM
 THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.4S
172.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.3S 173.8E, APPROXIMATELY 225 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A CONSOLIDATING LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 242219Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A WEAK
ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT WIND BARBS OVER THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY. A 250332Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK
OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPED
INTO THE LLCC. THIS DISTURBANCE LIES BENEATH AN UPPERLEVEL RIDGE
AXIS, IN AN AREA OF LOW VWS AND FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 30 DEGREES CELSIUS AND CYCLONIC
HORIZONTAL WIND SHEAR INDUCED BY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
EQUATORWARD OF THE DISTURBANCE ALSO FAVOR DEVELOPMENT. MULTIPLE
NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT
TWO TO THREE DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

图片:abpwsair.jpg

[iam最小值于2014-02-25 14:22编辑了帖子]
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
iam最小值
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2011-07-16
  • 最后登录2018-11-16
  • 粉丝238
  • 关注25
  • 发帖数12998
  • 来自
7楼#
发布于:2014-02-25 19:00
FMS下午的报告将14F的机率提升至中等-高,现在是多个中心争夺的关系,看看最后16P花落谁家。
 
WWPS21 NFFN 250900 CCA
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 25/0921 UTC 2014 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14F CENTRE [1002HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 15.9S 174.6E
AT 250600UTC. TD14F SLOW MOVING. POSTION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES
CELCIUS.
ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. CONVECTION
HAS INCREASED NEAR LLCC PAST 12 HOURS. TD14F LIES ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT JUST SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE AND
EAST OF AN UPPER TROUGH. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 700HPA.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEASTWARD
WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.
**************************************************************************
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15F CENTRE [1002HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 18.2S 175.1E
AT 250600UTC. TD15F SLOW MOVING. POSTION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES
CELCIUS.
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY PAST 12 HOURS. ORGANISATION
HAS IMPROVED PAST 6 HOURS. TD15F LIES ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH IN A LOW
TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE AND EAST OF
AN UPPER TROUGH. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 700HPA.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEASTWARD
WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.
 

图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif

回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
游客

返回顶部