iam最小值
论坛版主-副热带高压
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[SH(13-14)]南非以东副热带低压第13号(95S)-33.3S 37.3E

楼主#
更多 发布于:2014-02-27 21:16
奇葩东西来了
 

图片:MFR 20140227 12UTC.png

[iam最小值于2014-02-28 12:53编辑了帖子]
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  • tcfa_gw
    威望 3
    2014-02-27 21:30
  • tcfa_gw
    金钱 3
    2014-02-27 21:30
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禾愛糖禾愛糖 tcfa_gwtcfa_g...
Mitch
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1楼#
发布于:2014-02-27 21:21
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iam最小值
论坛版主-副热带高压
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2楼#
发布于:2014-02-27 21:34
各层面分析都不是一个正式热带系统,既然MFR编号了就开个帖存下档,命名难
 
WTIO30 FMEE 271305
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/13/20132014
1.A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION  13
2.A POSITION 2014/02/27 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 32.7 S / 37.9 E
(THIRTY TWO    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY SEVEN
DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :65 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 80 SE: 440 SW: 310 NW: 170
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2014/02/28 00 UTC: 33.2 S / 37.7 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, SUBTROPICAL
DEPRESSION
24H: 2014/02/28 12 UTC: 34.4 S / 37.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, SUBTROPICAL
DEPRESSION
36H: 2014/03/01 00 UTC: 36.9 S / 38.8 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, SUBTROPICAL
DEPRESSION
48H: 2014/03/01 12 UTC: 40.6 S / 42.4 E, MAX WIND=030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
THE NON TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT FORMED MONDAY NIGHT CLOSE TO
THE SOUTH-EASTERN COASTS OF SOUTH-AFRICA HAS GAINED SOME TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS AS DEEP CONVECTION HAS
FLARED UP CLOSE TO THE CENTER AND WRAPPED HALF THE WAY AROUND THE
CENTER. THIS SITUATION HAS BEEN POSSIBLE AS THE ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR
IS EASING AS THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLOSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS. THE SYSTEM HAS HYBRID CHARACTERISTICS WITH BOTH LATENT HEAT
RELEASE AND BAROCLINE PROCESS INVOLVED FOR SUSTAINING ITS STRENGTH.
AS USUAL FOR THIS KIND OF LOW, THE CLOUD TOPS ARE RATHER WARM AND THE
SYSTEM IS OVER MARGINAL SST IN THE 24-25AOC RANGE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SCATT DATA OF THIS MORNING THAT IS SHOWING 30
KT WINDS OVER THE WHOLE CIRCULATION AND EVEN 30-35 KT IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO ROUND THE LOW
TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGHS LOCATED TO ITS SOUTH-EAST THAT TEND TO
MOVE EASTWARDS. FRIDAY NIGHT, THE SYSTEM SHOULD ACCELERATE SOUTHWARDS
AND MERGE WITHIN A THE MID-LAT WESTERLIES STURDAY NIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STILL BE WITHIN A WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERTHAT (FRIDAY NIGHT), NORTH TO
NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGHEN. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
THEREFORE UNDERGO ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.=

图片:20140227_0900_msg_3_visir_bckgr_AFRICA_South_DAY.jpg

图片

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t02436
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3楼#
发布于:2014-02-27 23:41
NRL編95S
95S.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.32S.38.1E
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meow
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4楼#
发布于:2014-02-28 09:06
标题可以改为南非东方...

图片:20140227.2330.meteo7.x.ir1km_bw.95SINVEST.15kts-1010mb-332S-377E.100pc.jpg

Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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Mitch
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5楼#
发布于:2014-02-28 14:45
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meow
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6楼#
发布于:2014-02-28 15:05
有可见光照片了。

图片:20140228.0630.meteo7.x.vis2km.95SINVEST.15kts-1010mb-340S-373E.100pc.jpg



如同典型的副热带气旋,对流很弱。

图片:20140228.0630.meteo7.x.ir1km.95SINVEST.15kts-1010mb-340S-373E.100pc.jpg

Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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henry4867
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7楼#
发布于:2014-02-28 15:28
现在才注意到这个东西。。。刚升格那会样子还不错今天开始走下坡路
 

图片:2.jpg


 

图片:3.jpg


 
GFS高空截面显示系统的不对称性很好地体现了其副热带本质
 

图片:gfs_tcx_95S_1.png

Metropolitan tornadoes: St louis(1896) Waco(1953) Topeka(1966) Lubbock(1970) Miami(1997) Nashville(1998) Salt Lake City(1999) Dallas/Fort Worth(2000) Brooklyn(2007) Atlanta(2008) Raleigh(2011)
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iam最小值
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8楼#
发布于:2014-02-28 22:09
MFR发最后一报,之后随着风切的增强和冷空气侵入,开始向温带气旋转化。
 
WTIO30 FMEE 281209
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/13/20132014
1.A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION 13
2.A POSITION 2014/02/28 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 34.4 S / 37.0 E
(THIRTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 6 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :33 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 80 SE: 440 SW: 310 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 90
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2014/03/01 00 UTC: 36.3 S / 37.2 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
24H: 2014/03/01 12 UTC: 39.6 S / 40.7 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD NOW.
SST ARE COOL (24°C)
THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ALOFT ARE STRENGTHENING.
ACCORDING TO THIS DEGRADING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THERE IS NO
MORE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION.
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS
AND MERGE WITHIN THE MID-LAT WESTERLIES SATURDAY NIGHT.
LAST WARNING ISSUED BY RSMC LA REUNION RELATED TO THIS SYSTEM THAT
WILL BE MONITORED THANKS TO GMDSS MARINE WARNINGS FQZA31 FAPR
(WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE HIGH SEAS FOR METAREA 7) ISSUED BY THE SOUTH
AFRICAN WEATHER SERVICE.

图片:MFR 20140228 12UTC.png


 

图片:20140228_0900_msg_3_visir_bckgr_AFRICA_South_DAY.jpg

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