iam最小值
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30楼#
发布于:2014-03-11 19:58
大槽一过来风切增强整个系统被切的不像样子,这种时候发Final很合理,不过BOM预测3天后系统回到低纬可能重新发展,那时已经移到斐济责任区了。
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0634 UTC 11/03/2014
Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Hadi
Identifier: 13U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 17.6S
Longitude: 151.3E
Location Accuracy: within 15 nm [30 km]
Movement Towards: north northeast [025 deg]
Speed of Movement: 2 knots [4 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 999 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:    
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:    
Radius of 64-knot winds:    
Radius of Maximum Winds:    
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.5/W1.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 160 nm [295 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  11/1200: 17.2S 151.8E:     025 [050]:  030  [055]: 1001
+12:  11/1800: 16.7S 152.3E:     040 [070]:  030  [055]: 1003
+18:  12/0000: 16.1S 153.0E:     050 [095]:  030  [055]: 1003
+24:  12/0600: 15.5S 154.1E:     065 [120]:  030  [055]: 1004
+36:  12/1800: 14.2S 156.3E:     085 [155]:  030  [055]: 1004
+48:  13/0600: 13.0S 158.9E:     105 [190]:  030  [055]: 1004
+60:  13/1800: 12.3S 161.6E:     120 [225]:  035  [065]: 1002
+72:  14/0600: 12.3S 163.8E:     140 [265]:  035  [065]: 1001
+96:  15/0600: 13.0S 166.3E:     185 [345]:  035  [065]: 1000
+120: 16/0600:             :              :            :    
REMARKS:
The Dvorak analysis of ex-tropical cyclone Hadi is based on a shear pattern with
greater than 1.25 degrees of separation between the low level centre and any
remnant convection to the southeast of the system, giving a DT of 1.5. MET and
PT give 1.5 and 1.0 respectively. FT based on DT and the Dvorak constraints. CI
maintained at 2.5.

On the latest visible satellite imagery, ex-tropical cyclone Hadi appears to be
moving in a northeast direction. Most of the computer model guidance appears to
have the system maintaining this general track over the next couple of days. The
main steering influence will most likely be the monsoon flow to the north of the
system as it is slightly stronger than the trade flow to the south.

The direction of the vertical wind shear changed overnight and any remnant
convection is now being displaced to the southeast of the systems low level
centre due to an upper level trough moving across the southern Coral Sea.
Vertical wind shear has also increased across the system with the approach of
this upper level trough, which has inhibited any further development in the
short term. By Thursday, some of the computer models indicate that ex-tropical
cyclone Hadi may move into a more favourable environment for development and it
is possible that the system may reform into a tropical cyclone near the Solomon
Islands later this week.


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
There will be no further bulletins for this system unless it reintensifies.

图片:BOM 13U 20140311 06UTC.png



图片:IDX0099.201403110000.gif



 

图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif

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tcfa_gw
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31楼#
发布于:2014-03-12 06:33
MEDIUM

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 19P) HAS PERSISTED
NEAR 17.1S 153.4E, APPROXIMATELY 202 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WILLIS
ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A CONSOLIDATING
LLCC. A 111509Z NOAA-19 MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK OF THE DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT WRAPPING INTO THE
CENTER. AN OLDER 111149Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED 30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES WITH WEAKER (10 TO 15 KNOT) CORE WINDS.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VWS AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATES REGENERATION OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25
TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
 

图片:abpwsair.jpg

[iam最小值于2014-03-12 09:11编辑了帖子]
ただひとつの“今”を歌いつづける。
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homura
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32楼#
发布于:2014-03-12 14:13
嗯....
 

图片:19P_gefs_latest.png

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iam最小值
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33楼#
发布于:2014-03-12 18:55
飘啊飘,明天就要飘到FMS区了,看看FMS是另给编号还是认定是16F。
 
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 19P) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 17.1S 153.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.1S 156.1E,
APPROXIMATELY 585 NM WEST OF VANUATU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 112254Z ASCAT PARTIAL IMAGE SHOWS 20 TO 25
KNOT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 120440Z SSMI IMAGE
REVEALS AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH DEFINED, SHALLOW BANDING AND AN
ISOALTED, LINEAR BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH QUADRANT.  
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE
TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LIMITED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON THE LACK OF
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT AND WEAK MODEL
DEVELOPMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.

 

图片:abpwsair.jpg


 

图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif

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iam最小值
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34楼#
发布于:2014-03-13 09:36
FMS编20F,中心不算明显。
 
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD20F [1000HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 13.1S 162.8W
AT 122100 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT VIS/IR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD20F MOVING EAST AT 10 KNOTS. SST AROUND
30 DEGREES CELCIUS.
ORGANISATION HAS NOT IMPROVED PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION DECREASED IN
AREAL EXTENT PAST 12 HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 850HPA.
SYSTEM LIES SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE AND EAST OF AN UPPER TROUGH IN A
LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT EASTWARDS WITH
LITTLE INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS IS LOW.

 

图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif

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Mitch
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35楼#
发布于:2014-03-13 14:34
用户被禁言,该主题自动屏蔽!
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t02436
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36楼#
发布于:2014-03-13 14:51
iam最小值锛欶MS编20F,中心不算明显。
 
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD20F [1000HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 13.1S 162.8W
AT 122100 UTC. POSITION POOR BA...
鍥炲埌鍘熷笘
162.8W?
19P 00Z定在163.4E
是报文错误还是另一个在91P附近的系统?
1条评分, 金钱 +1
  • iam最小值
    金钱 +1
    没说我还没注意,谢提醒。应该是报文错误
    2014-03-13 15:21
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iam最小值
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37楼#
发布于:2014-03-14 19:03
NRL下午已撤,最近的风场扫描是在今天早晨5点多,当时还能看到有中心,继续观望。
 
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD20F [1003HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 14.0S 170.0E
AT 140600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS. TD20F SLOW MOVING. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS.
ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR PAST 12 HOURS. CONVECTION HAS NOT INCREASED
MUCH. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 700HPA. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN
UPPER RIDGE IN A MODERATE TO HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT EASTWARDS WITH
LITTLE INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS IS LOW.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

图片:WMBds283.png



 

图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif

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