tcfa_gw
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[SH(13-14)]瓦努阿图东南三级强热带气旋“路西”(18F/18P.Lusi)-18.7S 171.5E-转温后登陆新西兰

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更多 发布于:2014-03-07 17:32
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 18F [1007HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 16.5S 172.5E AT 070600UTC SLOW MOVING.

FMS新编号18F,定位与99P重合

WWPS21 NFFN 070900
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 07/0916 UTC 2014 UTC.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 17F [1007HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 16.0S 168.0E AT
070600UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR.
OVERALL ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. CONVECTION HAS NOT INCREASED OR
DEEPENED MUCH PAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 850HPA.
SYSTEM LIES JUST NORTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND KEEP KEEPS IT SLOW MOVING
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.
*********************************************************************
**********
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 18F [1007HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 16.5S 172.5E AT
070600UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR.
OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.
CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT PAST 12 HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
EXTENDS TO 850HPA. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN A LOW
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND KEEP KEEPS IT SLOW MOVING
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.
[iam最小值于2014-03-17 16:00编辑了帖子]
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ただひとつの“今”を歌いつづける。
iam最小值
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1楼#
发布于:2014-03-07 20:09
两个系统离得较近,FMS编号又松,因此在没有确定到底谁是谁前按原有编号讨论。根据先后顺序,此帖为18F讨论帖,后面编号有调整再说。

图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif


 
不过从云图看的确在16.5S 172.5E附近对流较集中且旋转性明显,估计是保留18F,明天应该能见分晓。
[iam最小值于2014-03-07 20:15编辑了帖子]
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Mitch
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2楼#
发布于:2014-03-07 21:22
用户被禁言,该主题自动屏蔽!
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海外追风者
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3楼#
发布于:2014-03-08 02:50
这也太葩了吧= =表示FMS的编号制度实在太松
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海外追风者
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4楼#
发布于:2014-03-08 03:04
GFS表示17F/18F未来藤原重合发展。不过看ECMWF更有可能是以17F为中心重新组合发展。
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iam最小值
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5楼#
发布于:2014-03-08 08:33
目前18F的定位还是更接近NRL 99P的定位,17F的地方对流没有显著增加,也看不出底层环流中心。
 
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 07/2301 UTC 2014 UTC.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 17F [1008HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 17.3S 167.0E AT
072100UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR.
OVERALL ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. CONVECTION HAS NOT INCREASED OR
DEEPENED MUCH PAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 700HPA.
SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND KEEPS IT SLOW MOVING OVER
THE AREA IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.
*********************************************************************
**********
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 18F [1008HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 16.3S 171.9E AT
072100UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR.
OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.
CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT PAST 12 HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
EXTENDS TO 500HPA. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN A
MODERATE TO HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND KEEPS IT SLOW MOVING OVER
THE AREA IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

 

图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif

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homura
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6楼#
发布于:2014-03-08 15:35
GFS持续显示五天后会以非热带形式增强并成为双性质的暖心系统,未来有望登陆新西兰。若预报实现的话将超过去年9月的温带气旋成为多年来袭击北岛的最强风暴(当时离岸岛屿录得阵风达87kt)
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tcfa_gw
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7楼#
发布于:2014-03-08 17:45

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 17F [1006HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 18.0S 165.4E AT
080900UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR.

OVERALL ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. CONVECTION HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED
IN PAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 700HPA. SYSTEM LIES
UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 29
DEGREES CELCIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND KEEPS IT SLOW MOVING OVER
THE AREA IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

*********************************************************************
**********

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 18F [1006HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 16.7S 172.0E AT
080900UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR.

OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.
CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT PAST 12 HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
EXTENDS TO 500HPA. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN A LOW
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND KEEPS IT SLOW MOVING OVER
THE AREA IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

 

究竟哪个发展

图片:vis0.gif

ただひとつの“今”を歌いつづける。
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iam最小值
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8楼#
发布于:2014-03-09 08:32

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 18F [1005HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 15.5S 168.4E AT
082100UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR.
OVERALL ORGANISATION REMAINS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.
CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT PAST 12 HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
EXTENDS TO 500HPA. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN A LOW TO
MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT EAST/SOUTHEAST IN
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

 

系统中心继续被对流覆盖,旋转性愈发明显,高层赤向流出较为强烈,不过涡度不够集中。FMS调升机率至中等-高。JTWC今天内应该能评MEDIUM。

 

图片:vis_lalo-animated (1).gif



 

图片:wgmsvor.gif

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tcfa_gw
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9楼#
发布于:2014-03-09 11:07
iam预言中
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.3S
171.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.4S 169.2E, APPROXIMATELY 440 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWLY CONSOLIDATED AS
FORMATIVE BANDS WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS
LOCATED IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VWS BUT
IMPROVING RADIAL OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IN THE REGION ARE
ALSO FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. IN VIEW OF THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.  //

图片:abpwsair.jpg

[iam最小值于2014-03-09 19:08编辑了帖子]
ただひとつの“今”を歌いつづける。
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