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[SH(13-14)]库克群岛以南热带低压21F-22.7S 158.2W

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更多 发布于:2014-03-18 11:06
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD21F [1003HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 17.0S 160.3W AT
172200UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES VIS
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES
CELCIUS.

ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY IN PAST 12 HOURS. CONVECTION
REMAINS GOOD ON EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO
700HPA. SYSTEM LIES IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND
UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE WITH GOOD DIFFLUENCE SOUTHEAST OF SYSTEM.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEASTWARDS
WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS IS MODERATE.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.
[iam最小值于2014-03-19 13:33编辑了帖子]
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iam最小值
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1楼#
发布于:2014-03-18 13:22
FMS终于还是忍不住新编了一个系统,借用93P的云图看FMS定的19F和21F,都是处于南半球ITCZ中的系统,按惯例NRL 93P的定位处于这两个系统之间。
 
TD19F [998HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 12.7S 165.3W AT 172200UTC
TD21F [1003HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 17.0S 160.3W AT 172200UTC

图片:20140317_2152_goes15_x_ir1km_bw_93PINVEST_20kts-1007mb-126S-1644W_100pc.jpg


 
从今天中午斐济的展望来看,后期两个系统合并发展,用21F编号的机率较大。
Potential for formation of a tropical cyclone from an existing disturbance:
Tropical Disturbance 19F was analysed near 12.7S 165.0W at 3pm today. TD19F is slow moving. Position
Poor. Potential for TD19F to develop into a cyclone is low in the next three days.

Tropical Disturbance 20F was analysed near 12.6S 160.2 E at 3pm today. TD20F is moving west and is
expected to be out of RSMC Nadi’s area of responsibility by 1800UTC Tuesday 18/03/14.
Wednesday   19/03/2014 - Very Low.

Tropical Depression 21F was analysed near 17.0S 162.0W at 3pm today. TD21F is slow moving. Position Poor.
Potential for TD21F to develop into a cyclone is low to moderate in the next three days.
Wednesday 18/03/2014 – Low
Thursday 19/03/2014 – Moderate
Friday 20/03/2014 – Moderate

图片:360截图20140318131955774.jpg

图片:QQ截图20140318161812.jpg

图片:QQ截图20140318161828.jpg

[iam最小值于2014-03-18 16:21编辑了帖子]
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Mitch
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2楼#
发布于:2014-03-18 14:49
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海燕晴晴
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3楼#
发布于:2014-03-19 00:51
這是在17.0S 160.3W...東南太平洋?!?維基百科說至今沒有發現過熱帶氣旋在東南太平洋形成的...這是有記錄以來第一個?

維基百科:
東南太平洋
該區因為強烈的垂直風切變,至今未有發現有熱帶氣旋生成。
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海外追风者
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4楼#
发布于:2014-03-19 02:26
海燕晴晴锛氝@是在17.0S 160.3W...東南太平洋?!?維基百科說至今沒有發現過熱帶氣旋在東南太平洋形成的...這是有記錄以來第一個?

維基百科:
東南太平洋
該區因為強烈的垂直風切變,至今未有發現有熱帶氣旋生成。
鍥炲埌鍘熷笘
应该不算东南太平洋。
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海外追风者
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5楼#
发布于:2014-03-19 03:11

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD21F [999HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 18.5S 158.9W AT
180600UTC MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS. POSITION POOR. POSITION
POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. SST
AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS.

ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY IN PAST 12 HOURS. CONVECTION
REMAINS GOOD ON EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO
700HPA. SYSTEM LIES IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND
UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE WITH GOOD DIFFLUENCE SOUTHEAST OF SYSTEM.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEASTWARD
WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS IS MODERATE.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.
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homura
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6楼#
发布于:2014-03-19 05:18
东南太平洋合理定义为FMS管辖区外120°W以东的海域,历史上确实没有任何热带气旋在这里生成但并非未曾存在过
1983年的Nano一直跑到115°W新西兰才停止发报,说明极少数情况下会出现未完全转温的特例
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Luigi728
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7楼#
发布于:2014-03-19 13:05
海外追风者锛氂Ω貌凰愣咸窖蟆鍥炲埌鍘熷笘
不是過了換日線以東就是東南太平洋的嗎?
再一次相遇我會緊緊抱著你 緊緊抱著你......
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iam最小值
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8楼#
发布于:2014-03-19 13:13
Luigi728锛毑皇沁^了換日線以東就是東南太平洋的嗎?鍥炲埌鍘熷笘
不要拿西北太平洋那套来应用到南太平洋上,看看地图就会发现南北太平洋的东西边界经度还是有差别的。南太平洋以120W以西为西南太平洋,也就是斐济和新西兰的责任区范围。
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Luigi728
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9楼#
发布于:2014-03-19 13:22
iam最小值锛毑灰梦鞅碧窖竽翘桌从τ玫侥咸窖笊希纯吹赝季突岱⑾帜媳碧窖蟮亩鞅呓缇然故怯胁畋鸬摹D咸窖笠120W以西为西南太平洋,也就是斐济和新西兰的责任区范围。鍥炲埌鍘熷笘
哦所以現在這個熱帶擾動和另一個正在TCFA的擾動都不是生在了東南太平洋...我還以為奇蹟真的發生了...
再一次相遇我會緊緊抱著你 緊緊抱著你......
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