henry4867
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[SH(13-14)]东南印度洋三级强热带气旋“杰克”(16U/24S.Jack)

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更多 发布于:2014-04-17 00:53

图片:20140416_1730_meteo-7_ir_90S_INVEST_15kts_1010mb_11_2S_96_3E_100pc.jpg

[iam最小值于2014-04-24 12:11编辑了帖子]
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Metropolitan tornadoes: St louis(1896) Waco(1953) Topeka(1966) Lubbock(1970) Miami(1997) Nashville(1998) Salt Lake City(1999) Dallas/Fort Worth(2000) Brooklyn(2007) Atlanta(2008) Raleigh(2011)
t02436
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1楼#
发布于:2014-04-17 01:19
JTWC:LOW
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.7S 97.6E,
APPROXIMATELY 115 NM NORTHEAST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING
OVER SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. A 160858Z SSMI IMAGE INDICATES BROAD,
FRAGMENTED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LLCC. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM COCOS ISLANDS SHOW SUSTAINED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH A SLP NEAR 1009 AND A 24-HOUR SLP DECREASE OF
2 MB. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW AND WEAK TO MODERATE,
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE SLOW
DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
 

图片:abiosair.jpg

[iam最小值于2014-04-17 13:01编辑了帖子]
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2楼#
发布于:2014-04-17 17:39
数值有反应
强度党一枚
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Mitch
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3楼#
发布于:2014-04-17 21:46
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4楼#
发布于:2014-04-18 01:42
JTWC: MEDIUM
 THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.7S 97.6E
IS LOCATED NEAR 11.7S 93.3E, APPROXIMATELY 210 NM WEST OF COCOS
ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING, BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING, PRIMARILY OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. A 171339Z SSMIS IMAGE INDICATES DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LLCC AND WEAK FRAGMENTED
BANDING ELSEWHERE. A 171501Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED
CIRCULATION WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DISPLACED OVER
THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM COCOS ISLANDS INDICATE SUSTAINED
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH A SLP NEAR 1009 MB. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WEAK TO MODERATE,
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE SLOW
DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

图片:abiosair.jpg

[iam最小值于2014-04-18 09:37编辑了帖子]
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iam最小值
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5楼#
发布于:2014-04-18 09:36
昨天的,两区域负责机构对系统发展看好,但是在哪个区域命名还不确定。
 
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:14 pm WST on Thursday 17 April 2014
for the period until midnight WST Sunday 20 April 2014.

Existing Cyclones in the  Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:  

At 1200 WST a low pressure system [16U] was located 325 kilometres west
northwest of the Cocos Islands, near 10.8S 94.2E and moving westwards at 17
kilometres an hour towards the boundary of the Western Region. The system may
develop into a tropical cyclone over the weekend west of 90E and is likely to
re-enter the Western Region late Sunday or during Monday. As the system is
likely to be west of 90E on Sunday, the likelihood has been reduced to moderate
even though this system may be a tropical cyclone.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Friday          Low        
Saturday        Moderate  
Sunday          High      

——————————————————————————————————————————————————————

This convective activity is associated with a weak low level circulation located approximately near
11S/94E at 1100Z. It is currently poorly organized.
Available NWP models analyze this low and forecast a west to south-westward movement up to
saturday morning.
On this forecasted path, the low level environment should improve from friday, with a monsoon
surge and good trade inflow. The upper environment is favorable with good poleward outflow, north
of the upper level ridge.
From saturday, the low may shift below the upper level ridge, it should deepen and recurve southeastward under the steering influence of the mid-level high pressures in the north-east.
The last avalaible NWP models (deterministic and ensemble forecast) tend to shift the track
eastward and there is no guarantee that the LLCC will cross the 90E boundary.

 

图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif

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Mitch
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6楼#
发布于:2014-04-18 14:19
用户被禁言,该主题自动屏蔽!
[Mitch于2014-04-18 14:27编辑了帖子]
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7楼#
发布于:2014-04-18 21:05
BOM 持续看好,欧中数值也有所反应。俨然已经是一个TS了,JTWC 再不发 TCFA 云卷眼都要构建好了,反应够迟钝的

图片:QQ图片20140214121045.png


 
TPXS10 PGTW 181215
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90S (W OF COCOS ISLANDS)
B. 18/1132Z
C. 12.4S
D. 91.8E
E. FIVE/MET7
F. T2.0/2.0  STT: D0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .40 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5.
PT IS A 2.0 DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   RAPP

 

At 1200 WST a low pressure system [16U] was located 510 kilometres west
northwest of the Cocos Islands, near 11.1S 92.3E and moving westwards at 11
kilometres an hour towards the boundary of the Western Region. The system may
develop into a tropical cyclone over the weekend west of 90E and is likely to
re-enter the Western Region late Sunday or during Monday. As the system is
likely to be west of 90E on Saturday, the likelihood has been reduced to
moderate even though this system may be a tropical cyclone.
 
Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Saturday        Moderate  
Sunday          High      
Monday          High      

 

图片:20140418_0511_trmm_x_color_1deg_90SINVEST_25kts-1004mb-118S-929E_62pc.jpg

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宇宙无疆界
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8楼#
发布于:2014-04-18 21:16
TCFA

图片:sh902014.20140418131100.gif





WTXS21 PGTW 181400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.9S 92.2E TO 15.6S 90.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 181200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.4S 91.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.7S
93.3E IS LOCATED NEAR 12.4S 91.9E, APPROXIMATELY 290 NM WEST OF
COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING AND A BUILDING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
FEATURE. A 181032Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS IMPROVED TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING
OVER THE LLCC WHILE THE SYSTEM HAS OVERALL BECOME BETTER DEFINED.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH VIGOROUS
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT 28 TO 30
DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
191400Z.//
NNNN
[宇宙无疆界于2014-04-18 21:47编辑了帖子]
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iam最小值
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9楼#
发布于:2014-04-18 22:54
目前受副高引导向西南移动,不过副高并不强,之后减弱转由西风槽接手引导所以再转向东南。MFR预计有一天半的时间在责任区内。目前来看升格24S和命名基本是确定了,巅峰强度可能就强热带风暴(或二级热带气旋)左右,90E分界在眼前,就看两个机构如何协商。
 
More eastern, as expected, monsoon flow extends now downwards over the basin and feeds a
Disturbed Weather Area centred at 0900Z near 12.5S/92.1E in the Australian Area of Responsibility.
Until Sunday, environmental conditions are favourable for further development.
Humid Monsoon Flow is efficient equator-ward (refer to CIMSS MIMIC-TPW), and Low Level
Trade Winds inflow is well sustained poleward in relationship with a broad subtropical high
pressures belt.
This Low is located under the northern edge of a upper-level ridge aloft and is expected to be under
its axis on Saturday. The vertical environment should then become very favourable for a significant
deepening (weak vertical windshear and good divergence aloft especially poleward linked to a
efficient upper level outflow channel).
Currently tracking South-Westwards at 07 kt and expected to keep on tracking globally West-SouthWestwards until Saturday at 12Z, the centre is expected to cross the 90E boundary and be located in
our AoR late tonight (potentially near 00Z the 19th).
In the Mid-Levels, the subtropical Ridge is expected to weaken and a Trough is expected to take
place Saturday southwards (refer to 700hPa ECMWF nwp fields) . The low is therefore expected to
be steered Southwards then South-Eastwards Saturday late and East-South-Eastwards Sunday late.
It is expected to leave our AoR and be back in the Australian one (potentially the 20th between 12Z
and 18Z).

图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif

[iam最小值于2014-04-18 22:56编辑了帖子]
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