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[SH(13-14)]阿拉弗拉海91P - 10.6S 137.1E

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更多 发布于:2014-04-21 03:37

图片:91P.PNG

[wangruizhi于2014-04-27 20:17编辑了帖子]
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    2014-04-21 07:21
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    2014-04-21 07:21
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Dumb people do dumb things without realising they are dumb.
colinwoo
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1楼#
发布于:2014-04-21 06:39
渦度泛紅才編扰==
Colinwoo
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Mitch
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2楼#
发布于:2014-04-21 13:48
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t02436
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3楼#
发布于:2014-04-21 16:17
BoM预计星期四开始发展

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Monday 21 April 2014
for the period until midnight CST Thursday 24 April 2014.

Potential Cyclones:  

A weak Tropical Low, 1008 hPa, is located in the northern Arafura Sea to the
north of the region. The low is expected move slowly west before entering the
Northern Region as it moves southwestwards into the Timor Sea later this week.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Tuesday         Very Low  
Wednesday       Very Low  
Thursday        Low
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十字架二
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4楼#
发布于:2014-04-21 22:23

图片:gfsfull_pres_wind_aus_24.png


GFS 138h
[iam最小值于2014-04-21 22:35编辑了帖子]
盐城,一个让人打开心扉的地方
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wangruizhi
论坛版主-副热带高压
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5楼#
发布于:2014-04-22 14:08
JTWC:LOW
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.2S 132.2E,
APPROXIMATELY 330 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A CONSOLIDATING AND ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. A 212359Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS WEAK AND
BROKEN FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY WHILE THE LOW
LEVEL STRUCTURE IS BROAD. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY DIVERGENT OUTFLOW AND MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
 

图片:abiosair.jpg

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6楼#
发布于:2014-04-22 14:28
GFS 00Z

图片:gfs_mslp_wind_91P_32.png

[wangruizhi于2014-04-22 15:14编辑了帖子]
盐城,一个让人打开心扉的地方
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Mitch
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7楼#
发布于:2014-04-22 14:32
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wangruizhi
论坛版主-副热带高压
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8楼#
发布于:2014-04-22 16:05
该扰动便是此前数值普遍看好多时的那个北澳旋风,预计在阿拉弗拉海和帝汶海缓慢移动,未来会达到不错的强度。
 
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Tuesday 22 April 2014
for the period until midnight CST Friday 25 April 2014.
 
Potential Cyclones:
 
A weak Tropical Low, 1008 hPa, is located in the northern Arafura Sea to the
north of the region. The low is expected to remain weak while moving slowly
southwestwards towards the Timor Sea, entering the Northern Region later this
week.
 
Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Wednesday       Very Low  
Thursday        Low        
Friday          Low      

 

图片:91P_gefs_00z.png

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9楼#
发布于:2014-04-22 22:37

图片:gfs_mslp_wind_91P_31.png

[iam最小值于2014-04-23 12:58编辑了帖子]
盐城,一个让人打开心扉的地方
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