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更多 发布于:2014-05-22 23:57
Typhoon Haiyan Storm Surge Survey Finds High Water Marks 46 Feet High


Category 5 Super Typhoon Haiyan,
with satellite-estimated winds of 190 - 195 mph at landfall on November 8,
2013, pushed a massive storm surge of up to 23 feet (7 meters) into Tacloban,
Philippines, newly-published storm surge survey results reveal. A team of
researchers led by Yoshimitsu Tajima of the Department of Civil Engineering at
the University of Tokyo found that at Haiyan's initial landfall point on the
east coast of Samar Island, massive waves on top of the storm surge crashed
against the coast, creating high water marks an astonishing 46 feet (14.1
meters) above mean sea level--some of the highest high-water marks ever
recorded from a tropical cyclone. The world record is 13 - 14.6 meters (43 - 48
feet) from Australia's March 5, 1899 Bathurst Bay Cyclone. The greatest storm
surge and high water mark recorded in an Atlantic hurricane are from Hurricane
Katrina of 2005, which had a peak storm surge in Pass Christian, Mississippi of
27.8 feet (8.46 meters). The sea bottom was very flat in this region, so the
waves on top of the surge were relatively small, and the highest high water
mark from Katrina was just a few inches higher, at 28 feet (8.53 meters.) When
deep water lies just offshore, as is the case for the east coast of the
Philippines' Samar Island, huge waves will develop when the eyewall of an
intense tropical cyclone moves over. These huge waves broke very close to shore
during Haiyan, and were able to run-up the steep hillsides to incredible

五级超级台风海燕在2013年11月8日登陆时通过卫星估计的强度达到190-195mph,在菲律宾塔克洛班造成了高达23英尺(7米)排山倒海般的风暴潮,这是刚刚出版的风暴潮报告所披露的。一支由Yoshimitsu Tajima率领来自东京大学土木工程系的研究者们发现在海燕的第一登陆点东萨马岛海岸,巨大的风暴潮及巨浪洗劫了沿岸,最高水位达到了惊人的46英尺(14.1米)——热带气旋创造的最高风暴潮水位之一。这方面的世界纪录是1899年澳大利亚巴瑟斯特湾风暴(旋风Mahina)所创造的13-14.6米(43-48英尺)。而在大西洋的最高潮位记录是2005年卡特里娜飓风在密西西比Pass Christian所创造的27.8英尺(8.46米)。这一区域的海床非常平坦,因此风暴潮上的浪高相对较小,卡特里娜的最终最高水位只比最高潮位高一点,为28英尺(8.53米)。当岸边像东萨马岛海岸一样为海洋深水区时,较强热带气旋眼墙移近将会产生巨大的海浪。这些浪在非常靠近岸边时才碎裂,能够爬上陡峭的山坡从而达到惊人的高度。


Figure 1. High
water marks (in meters) in the wake of Super Typhoon Haiyan's storm surge in
the Philippines on November 8, 2013. Numbers with "V" had significant
waves on top of the storm surge; "R" indicates wave run-up height
(where waves on top of the surge allowed the water to run-up onto shore much
higher than the actual surge height), and symbols without letters are still
water inundation (storm surge) heights. The high water marks are corrected for
the tide levels at the time of the survey (tidal range in the Central
Philippines is generally less than 1 meter, so this is a small correction in
most cases.) The data is plotted from the survey results of Tajima et
, 2014.


Results of the storm surge survey
 Andrew Kennedy, Associate Professor in Notre Dame's Department of Civil &
Environmental Engineering & Earth Sciences, was part of a second Super
Typhoon Haiyan storm surge survey done in January 2014 (whose results have not
yet been published), and wrote this email to me: "We surveyed many
locations concentrating on the open Pacific coast of Eastern Samar, just north
of first landfall. The team was led by Professor Yoshimitsu Tajima of the
University of Tokyo. We are still processing results, but found many locations
with wave run-up in the 9 - 10 meter range. These waves and surge tossed palm
trees, large boulders, and other debris up to elevations that would seem
improbable if you had not seen the evidence. The communities affected by this
storm remain devastated, and there is still no power in Guiuan, the largest
city in Eastern Samar and our base for part of the survey.  In addition to
the inundation, we also looked a lot at damage--mainly from waves and surge,
but partly from wind. This included the small Barangay (town) of Hernani, the
location of the frightening Nixon Gensis video showing waves washing away a
house. We interviewed many people both in Hernani and other locations who
described similar experiences of very sudden destructive inundation. I will say
it again: ten meter run-up is hard to believe if you haven’t seen it."

Andrew Kennedy,圣母大学环境工程与地球科学系副教授,是2014年1月第二次海燕风暴潮调查成员(这次调查的结果还未出版),给我发了这样一封电子邮件:“我们集中在东萨马岛海岸附近调查了许多地点,就在第一登陆点的北方。这支队伍由东京大学教授Yoshimitsu Tajima率领。我们还在处理数据,发现了许多海浪爬升高度在9-10米间的地方。巨浪与风暴潮将棕榈树,巨岩和其他废墟瓦砾甩到一个不可思议的高度,除非亲眼所见很难相信。受这次风暴影响的村落仍然是一片瓦砾,而东萨马岛最大城市,我们调查的据点吉万市仍未恢复电力。除此之外,我们还看到了很多破坏——主要由风暴潮和巨浪造成,部分由风造成。这其中包括Nixon Gensis的视频拍摄地,Hernani的small Barangay镇。我们采访到了许多当时在Hernani或其他地点的人,他们都描述到了彼此相似的经历,即海浪非常迅猛地排山倒海般卷来。我想再说一次:高达10米的海浪爬升难以置信,除非亲眼所见。”

Video 1. Nickson
Gensis, Plan Philippines Community Development Worker, filmed what is probably
the most remarkable video of storm surge ever taken. The video was taken from
the from the top floor of a boarding house during Super Typhoon Haiyan in
Hernani, in Eastern Samar, Philippines on November 8, 2013. Australian tropical
cyclone expert Bruce Harper had this to say about the remarkable
"tsunami-like" storm surge observed at 46 seconds into the
video: This site at Hernani is quite exposed on the eastern coast of
Samar, and has a fringing reef. My guess is that we are seeing the sudden
exposure to deep water ocean swell waves that were triggered by the tide and
sea level increase due to the storm surge. There is a critical water level
where waves impacting on reefs can suddenly cause a massive increase in wave
setup in the form of a tsunami-like effect such as we see in the video. A
similar effect was reported at Basey, ten miles to the northeast of Tacloban
across the San Juanico Strait, in this news report: "Edgar dela Cruz,
45, of Barangay Mercado, recounted to The STAR the sight of what looked like a
tsunami. During the strange lull in the typhoon, he went out of his house.
Jinamok Island was a kilometer across the sea from his village, he said. The
sea receded about halfway to the island. 'There was a kind of low black cloud
moving toward us,' Dela Cruz said. 'We heard a loud boom, like an explosion.
And then we saw the giant waves--four giant waves--it was horrible.' Their
house was destroyed. He said he and his family escaped with only the clothes on
their backs." In this case, the reports suggest that northeast winds ahead
of the center of Haiyan caused an initial “negative surge” effect in the
shallow waters in this area, followed by the winds turning to E and SE as the
center came closer. You can then develop quite a gradient in the water levels
capable of producing this effect. The fast speed of the storm may also have
contributed to this specific phenomenon.
Yao Zhang of Notre Dame's
Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering & Earth Sciences has
modeled the waves and surge at Hernani, Eastern Samar, using a one-dimensional
Boussinesq model. These show periodic surges and recessions very similar to
those seen by Nickson Gensis. Magnitudes are quite large--over 5 meters--which
does not include any initial storm surge. The simulations are not perfectly
accurate, due to the lack of perfect bathymetry and incident waves. A video of
one of his model runs may be seen at
The middle plot is a zoomed-in version of the larger-scale version shown in the
top panel.

视频1. Nickson Gensis,菲律宾社区发展计划工人,拍摄了这个可能是关于风暴潮最震撼的视频。这个视频拍摄于2013年11月8日,在菲律宾东萨马岛Hernani的一家旅店的顶楼摄得。澳大利亚热带气旋专家Bruce Harper对这段46秒长的视频有如下评论:这个地方在Hernani正对东萨马岛海岸,岸边有岸礁。我的猜测是我们在视频中所看见的是风暴潮导致的潮位和海平面上升,进而引发海洋深水潮涌涌上海岸。危险的海面高度导致海浪拍打在岸礁上,海浪浪高急速上升,产生了视频里像海啸一般的场景。在Basey,沿San Juanico海峡向北距离塔克洛班十英里,有一篇类似的报告:“Edgar dela Cruz,45岁,来自Barangay Mercado,向星报回忆了海啸般的场景。他在奇怪的一次风暴暂歇之际走出自己的房屋。他说Jinamok岛离他的村子大概一千米远,而当时海水退到了两地之间的中点,‘乌黑的低云向我们移来,‘Dela Cruz说,‘我们听见一声巨响,像爆.炸一样。然后我们看见了巨浪——四波滔天巨浪——非常恐怖。’他们的房子被摧毁了。他说他们一家只带着背上的衣物逃离。”据此,报道认为海燕中心前的东北风在这一带的浅水区导致了“负风暴潮”效果,随后随着风暴中心迫近,风向转为东风和东南风。因此你可以靠水面坡度产生这样的效果。风暴的迅速移动也可能放大了这种效应。圣母大学环境工程与地球科学系的Yao Zhang用一个一维的Boussinesq模型模拟了东萨马岛Hernani的海浪和风暴潮,结果显示出了周期性的潮涌和消退,和Nickson


Figure 2. Storm
surge damage from Super Typhoon Haiyan on Victory Island, Samar. Image credit:
Getty Images.
图2.萨马省胜利岛的风暴潮破坏。来源:Getty Images.

A deadly storm surge for Tacloban
 Tacloban (population 221,000) is the largest city on the Philippines' east
coast, and is low-lying, with much of the city at less than ten feet elevation.
Its position at the pointy end of a funnel-shaped bay makes its location
particularly vulnerable to storm surge, since the topography acts to
concentrate water at the apex of the funnel. The storm surge in Tacloban from
Haiyan ranged from 4.6 - 7.0 meters (15 - 23 feet) according to the survey
results, and caused catastrophic loss of life. An April 17, 2014 report from
Philippine National Disaster Risk
Reduction and Management Council
listed 7,361
people dead or missing from Haiyan, making the typhoon the deadliest disaster
in Philippine history. Most of these deaths occurred due to the storm surge in
the Tacloban region.
According to storm
surge expert Dr. Hal Needham, the record highest storm surge in modern history
in East Asia was 24 feet (7.3 meters) in 1897 on Samar Island, Philippines--the
same location where Haiyan initially hit.

塔克洛班(人口22.1万)是菲律宾东岸的最大城市,地势低洼,许多地方海拔低于10英尺。这座城市位于喇叭状海湾的收尾处,由于地势原因海水在海湾顶点集聚,使其易受风暴潮威胁。根据调查结果,海燕在塔克洛班造成的风暴潮介于4.6-7.0米高(15-23英尺),导致了惨重的人员伤亡。一份2014年4月17日来自菲律宾国家减灾应灾委员会的报告指出海燕导致7361人死亡或失踪,使其成为菲律宾历史上最惨重的自然灾害。其中许多伤亡即由塔克洛班的风暴潮导致。根据风暴潮专家Hal Needham博士,东亚风暴潮最高纪录为1897年东萨马岛的24英尺(7.3米),和海燕最初登陆的地点一致。

Video 2. This
animation by
Deltares shows
computed storm surge levels and wind vectors as Super Typhoon Haiyan makes
landfall near Tacloban City, The Philippines. Surge levels were computed using
Delft3D two days after landfall. The wind fields are based on Joint Typhoon
Warning Center data, and generated a simulated storm surge of over 16.4 feet (5
meters) for Tacloban.

A detailed look at Haiyan's storm surge, my December 2013 blog post.

(An interesting side note: I talked
to a journalist who traveled to Eastern Samar after Haiyan hit. She talked to a
worker who sheltered at the radar site in Guiuan that had its radome blown off
during the height of the storm. The worker reported that they measured a
pressure of 892 mb as the eye passed over. I haven't heard anything official
out of the Philippines about this measurement, though, and the official
landfalling pressure of Haiyan remains the 895 mb estimated via satellite by
the Japan Meteorological Agency.)

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