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[报文翻译]2014-07号“海贝斯”台风(07W.Hagibis)之JTWC预报理由翻译专贴

楼主#
更多 发布于:2014-06-14 10:53
翻译信息表:
报数               时间                   翻译情况              翻译者               楼层
TCFA          06.14-02Z          已翻译(全文)         wusifeng              0
#1              06.14-06Z           已翻译(要点)       wusifeng              1
#2              06.14-12Z              未翻译
#3              06.14-18Z           已翻译(要点)       wusifeng               2
#4              06.15-00Z           已翻译(要点)       wusifeng               3
#5-#11                                    无人翻译
说明:
1、由于该热带系统未来发展态势良好,且可能影响我国南部沿海,所以特开此贴。
2、本贴翻译JTWC报文,时间以協調世界時的作准。
3、翻译前为防止重复翻译原则上需要预约,可以直接回帖预约或发私信至开帖人预约。
4、为信息展示需要,请将报文原文和译文放置于同一楼层若回帖预约的,请将翻译放在预约帖
5、有时间的童鞋建议全文翻译,我们也鼓励抓要点进行简单翻译,简单翻译的要点:
发报时定位,过去的移动速度、结构、强度、环境场,未来的强度、路径、环境场,数值的预测
6、本帖不允许发与翻译和预约不相符的内容,否则将被视为灌水删帖处理。
7、翻译中若若有其他任何疑惑,欢迎加入翻译小组QQ群280857254加入我们的讨论。
组织规则
1.默认开帖人为组织人,负责更新首楼的翻译信息表。有多人开贴,同“抢扰动”规则,只保留一个帖子。若开帖人无时间组织,可委托管理团队组织。
2.为避免盲目开帖的情况,鼓励更多有志于翻译报文的坛友加入,开帖人须至少翻译一篇报文,否则开帖奖励只加2威望。
加分规则:为鼓励翻译,对翻译贴加分可适当宽松。
1、开贴加分:5威望
2、组织加分:开设翻译信息表,贡献值1,维护翻译信息表至台风结束,根据台风维持时间长短再加贡献值2威望3~8。
3、内容加分:全文翻译,视翻译质量加贡献值6-12,要点翻译,视翻译质量贡献值2-5。单个台风,翻译5报以上再加贡献值5,翻译10报以上再加贡献值10。
TCFA原文:
WTPN21 PGTW 140200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
105 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.3N 117.0E TO 24.1N 117.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 140000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 20.7N 117.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 
117.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 117.0E, APPROXIMATELY 190 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING PERSISTING ALONG THE EASTERN 
PERIPHERY OF A BROAD, BUT CONSOLIDATING, LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC). THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A MONSOON DEPRESSION 
STRUCTURE WITH 30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS OBSERVED WELL TO THE EAST OF 
THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND A BROAD CORE OF WEAKER WINDS (20-25 
KNOTS). A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PREVIOUSLY LOCATED OVER THE 
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY 
WESTWARD, ALLOWING DIVERGENCE OVER THE LLCC TO INCREASE DURING THE 
PAST 12 HOURS. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS MODERATE, RECENT 
IMPROVEMENT IN LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE SUGGESTS THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
FORMATION PRIOR TO ANTICIPATED LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN CHINA IS 
INCREASINGLY PROBABLE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 
NEAR 996 MB. GIVEN THE LOW OBSERVED CENTRAL PRESSURE AND IMPROVING 
UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
150200Z.//
NNNN

TCFA翻译:
1.未来12~24小时,在20.3N 117.0E至24.1N 117.0E连线两侧的105海里矩形框范围内,将有明显的热带气旋发展。现有数据未能完全证实这次警报。该区风速被预测为18至23节。140000Z的METSAT图像显示其环流中心位于20.7N 117.0EE附近。系统正以5节时速向偏北方向移动。
2. 备注: 先前位于20.0N 117.3E的对流目前被定位在20.7N 117.0E附近,即香港东南方大约190海里处。最新的多光谱卫星动态图像(MSI)显示:深对流带正集中系统东半圈,底层环流中心(LLCC)正在努力巩固整合中。该扰动带有季风低压特征:环流中心东侧带有30-35节的勘测风力,而核心风力稍弱只有20-25节。先前位于系统西北侧的弱上层低压已略微向西偏离,这使切离的LLCC在过去12小时得到改善和发展。虽然垂直风切变保持中等,但目前底层结构的改善表明:系统在登陆中国东南部前很可能发展为热带气旋。预计系统最大持续风力为18-23节,最低海平面气压为996MB。鉴于被观测到的低中心气压以及正在改善的高层环境,未来24小时有明显热带气旋发展的概率较高。
3.该预警将在150200Z重新发布, 升级或取消。

图片:wp952014.20140614015900.gif

[幻翼の勇者于2014-06-25 03:11编辑了帖子]
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wusifeng
资深会员-热带辐合带
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1楼#
发布于:2014-06-14 19:31
#01
原文:
WDPN31 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (HAGIBIS) WARNING 
NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (HAGIBIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 183 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED AND MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC), WHICH FORMED FROM A MONSOON DEPRESSION, HAS CONSOLIDATED 
WITH PERSISTENT CENTRAL CONVECTION AND FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING 
INTO A DEFINED CENTER. A 140426Z GCOM-W1 36V GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS 
MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC AND SUPPORTS THE 
CURRENT POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. A 140126Z ASCAT IMAGE 
INDICATES THAT GALE-FORCE WINDS (35 KNOTS) HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE 
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM AND THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS HAS 
CONTRACTED TO APPROXIMATELY 70 NM, WHICH IS MORE TYPICAL OF A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS HAVE ALSO IMPROVED OVER THE 
PAST 24 HOURS AS A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW PREVIOUSLY LOCATED OVER THE 
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION HAS FILLED AND SHIFTED 
WESTWARD, ALLOWING DIVERGENCE OVER THE LLCC TO INCREASE. TS 07W IS 
TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO 
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST 
PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TS 07W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU 
48 THEN THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN SHARPLY NORTHEASTWARD AS IT TRACKS 
POLEWARD OF THE STR AXIS INTO THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES. DYNAMIC 
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH 
OF THE STR. GFS, GFDN AND HWRF SHOW A STRONGER STR AND DEPICT A 
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK CLOSER TO TAIWAN BEFORE TURNING THE SYSTEM 
NORTHEASTWARD OVER LAND. NAVGEM, ECMWF AND JGSM INDICATE A WEAKER 
STR AND TRACK THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER LAND. 
ALL THESE MODELS INDICATE DISSIPATION OVER LAND. THE SOLE OUTLIER IS 
COAMPS-TC WHICH TRACKS A 35- TO 45-KNOT SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD (INTO 
THE STR) OVER WATER TOWARD TAIWAN. BASED ON UPPER-AIR DATA, THE JTWC 
FORECAST FAVORS A NORTHWARD TRACK, HOWEVER, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE 
IN THE TRACK DUE TO POSITIONAL UNCERTAINTY AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE 
TIMING OF THE NORTHEAST TURN. TS 07W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY 
SLIGHTLY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS BY TAU 24 BUT IS EXPECTED 
TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER LAND PRIOR TO RE-EMERGING OVER THE EAST 
CHINA SEA AFTER TAU 72.//
NNNN


要点翻译:
热带风暴(TS)07W位于香港东南方183海里,过去6小时以3节时速向偏北方向移动。多光谱红外动态卫星图显示LLCC不断完善,中心对流持续加强;微波图像则显示对流不断卷入LLCC;风场扫描显示系统北侧烈风圈扩展至70海里。过去24小时系统西北侧弱上层低压向西移动,高层环境继续改善。未来48小时系统将在副高中低层面引导下系统继续向北移动,而后转向东北。基于各大模式对于副高强度的预报存在分歧,JTWC的路径预报可信度低。GFS, GFDN 和 HWRF预测副高偏强,在系统东北行之前有段西北路径;而NAVGEM, ECMWF和JGSM预测副高较弱,后期路径趋向东北。JTWC支持后者的路径走向。强度方面,预计TS 07W将于未来24小时加强至45节,随后减弱。

图片:wp072014.20140614082213.gif

图片:07W_140532sams.jpg

[wusifeng于2014-06-14 19:40编辑了帖子]
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2楼#
发布于:2014-06-15 08:33
原文:
WDPN31 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (HAGIBIS) WARNING 
NR 03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (HAGIBIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OF THE SYSTEM 
HAS BECOME CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND HAS SLIGHTLY 
DECREASED IN SIZE WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS 
REMAINED TIGHTLY WRAPPED. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL 
POSITION AS THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF AMBIGUITY IN THE EIR LOOP AS 
THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF THE SYSTEM MAY HAVE BECOME DISPLACED 
FROM THE LLCC WHILE POSITION FIXES FROM SEVERAL AGENCIES HAVE BECOME 
MORE SPREAD. THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS 
BASED ON PERSISTENCE FROM A PREVIOUS ASCAT PASS AS DVORAK INTENSITY 
ESTIMATES REMAIN LOW DUE TO THE UNORGANIZED NATURE OF THE 
CONVECTION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN UNCHANGED ENVIRONMENT AS 
MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO OFFSET 
RECENTLY ESTABLISHED POLEWARD AND CONTINUED VIGOROUS EQUATORWARD 
OUTFLOW. TS 07W IS TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS 
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 07W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD, MAKING 
LANDFALL NEAR TAU 24 AND THEN SHOULD SHARPLY TURN NORTHEASTWARD AS 
IT TRACKS AROUND THE STR AXIS INTO THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES. TS 
07W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE 
LANDFALL BUT IS THEN EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER LAND 
PRIOR TO THE REMNANTS RE-EMERGING OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA AFTER TAU 
48. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LANDFALL IN THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES AFTERWARDS IN THE TIMING 
OF THE NORTHEAST TURN. COAMPS-TC CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH AN 
UNLIKELY TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN TAIWAN. THE JTWC FORECAST CONTINUES 
TO FAVOR A NORTHWARD TRACK INTO LAND AND THE DISSIPATION SCENARIO, 
ALONG WITH THE BULK OF THE DYNAMIC TRACKERS. BASED ON THE TIGHT 
MODEL PACKING, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN


要点翻译:
热带风暴(TS)位于香港东-南东大约160海里处,过去6小时以时速3节向北-北西方向移动。红外增强卫星图像显示深对流正在集中在西半圈,整体对流有所缩小。由于中低层对流被切离,各家数据存在定位分歧,目前定位可信度较低。当前40节的强度判定主要根据风场扫描。高层环境与前报相比没有改变:垂直风切变中等(10-20节),赤向流出有限,极向流出尚可。未来TS 07W在副高中低层面引导下于登陆前继续向偏北方向移动,24小时后向东北方向移动并并入西风带。强度方面,TS 07W在未来12小时前还有少许加强空间,登陆后将减弱,48小时后残余将进入东海。各大数据对于未来24小时以及登陆的预报保持高度一致,后期仅COAMPS-TC预报穿越北台湾,因此JTWC的路径预报可行度高。

图片:wp072014.20140614082213.gif

图片:07W_141732sair.jpg

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wusifeng
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3楼#
发布于:2014-06-15 10:57
#04
原文:
WDPN31 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (HAGIBIS) WARNING 
NR 04//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (HAGIBIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 145 NM 
EAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) ALONG WITH 
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS TS HAGIBIS HAS 
CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE AS BANDING HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE 
DEFINED DESPITE THE CONVECTION BECOMING MORE SHALLOW. THIS 
CONSOLIDATION IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY A 142100Z SSMIS 37 GHZ 
MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS A WEAK BUT SYMMETRIC EYE FEATURE. THERE 
IS INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE TIGHTLY 
WRAPPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER SEEN IN THE MSI LOOP. THE 
CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45 KNOTS BASED ON THE 
STRUCTURE SEEN IN THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE AS DVORAK 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN LOW DUE TO THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE 
CONVECTION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN UNCHANGED ENVIRONMENT AS 
MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO OFFSET 
RECENTLY ESTABLISHED POLEWARD AND CONTINUED VIGOROUS EQUATORWARD 
OUTFLOW. TS 07W IS TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS 
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 07W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD, MAKING 
LANDFALL JUST AFTER TAU 12 AND THEN SHOULD SHARPLY TURN 
NORTHEASTWARD AS IT TRACKS AROUND THE STR AXIS INTO THE UPPER-LEVEL 
WESTERLIES. TS 07W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF 
THE FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH LAND AND IS FORECAST TO 
DISSIPATE OVER LAND PRIOR TO THE REMNANTS RE-EMERGING OVER THE EAST 
CHINA SEA AFTER TAU 36. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
WITH LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES 
AFTERWARDS IN THE TIMING OF THE NORTHEAST TURN. COAMPS-TC CONTINUES 
TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH AN UNLIKELY TRACK TOWARDS NORTHERN TAIWAN. THE 
JTWC FORECAST CONTINUES TO FAVOR A NORTHWARD TRACK INTO LAND AND THE 
DISSIPATION SCENARIO, AS DO THE BULK OF THE DYNAMIC TRACKERS. BASED 
ON THE TIGHT MODEL PACKING, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC 
FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

 
要点翻译:
热带风暴(TS)07W位于香港以东大约145海里处,过去6小时以时速5节向偏北方向移动。多光谱动态卫星图像以及红外增强卫星图像显示:尽管对流有所减弱,环流结构继续巩固和加强,142100Z的SSMIS37 GHZ 微波图像表明系统已经发展出一个微弱而对称的风眼结构。由于底层环流中心非常明确,系统初始定位可行度高。当前45节的强度判定是根据前面提到的微波图像扫描结果。高层环境与前报相比没有改变:垂直风切变中等(10-20节),赤向流出有限,极向流出尚可。未来TS 07W在副高中低层面引导下于登陆前继续向偏北方向移动并于12小时后登陆,随后,它将转向东北并并入西风带。各大数据对于未来24小时以及登陆的预报保持高度一致,后期仅COAMPS-TC预报穿越台湾以北。JTWC则支持主流数据预报,因此预报可信度较高。

图片:wp0714.gif

图片:07W_142332sams.jpg

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