spidyl2009
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[报文翻译]1415号热带气旋“海鸥”(15W.Kalmaegi)之JTWC預報理由翻譯帖

楼主#
更多 发布于:2014-09-12 10:01
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说明:
1、由于该热带系统未来发展态势良好,且可能影响我国南部沿海,所以特开此贴。
2、本贴翻译JTWC报文,时间以协调世界時的作准。
3、翻译前为防止重复翻译原则上需要预约,可以直接回帖预约或发私信至开帖人预约。
4、为信息展示需要,请将报文原文和译文放置于同一楼层若回帖预约的,请将翻译放在预约帖
5、有时间的童鞋建议全文翻译,我们也鼓励抓要点进行简单翻译,简单翻译的要点:
发报时定位,过去的移动速度、结构、强度、环境场,未来的强度、路径、环境场,数值的预测
6、本帖不允许发与翻译和预约不相符的内容,否则将被视为灌水删帖处理。
7、翻译中若若有其他任何疑惑,欢迎加入翻译小组QQ群152955236加入我们的讨论。

 
组织规则
第一条 预报理由翻译贴是对JTWC Reasoning文件进行翻译的专贴。由于气旋的Reasoning文件翻译量不定,因此需要一定的人事组织,参与组织或翻译的会员将获得一定程度的奖励。
第二条 任何会员都可对任何JTWC升格的系统开贴,但原则上建议只对我国有影响的系统开帖。对不影响我国的系统,不建议单独开贴,翻译者可在追击贴或深度贴内进行,版主将按第八条之标准酌情加分。
第三条 开帖人默认为组织人,负责更新首楼的翻译信息表,并履行好翻译工作的责任,自己开帖让别人翻译的行为将被谴责及追究。如遇多人开贴,则同“抢扰动”规则,只保留一个帖子。若开帖人无时间组织,可委托管理团队组织。
第四条 翻译的模式有两种,分别为全部翻译、要点翻译。实践中,不建议连续全文翻译,可针对预报理由变动进行要点总结。
第五条 内容发布时,报文原文、中文翻译必须齐全。
第六条 开贴加分:开帖人翻译一篇或以上报文,威望+5;否则削减为威望+2。
第七条 组织加分:开设翻译信息表,贡献值+1;维护翻译信息表至台风结束,根据台风维持时间长短,追加贡献值2点,威望3~8点。
第八条 内容加分:全文翻译,视翻译质量加贡献值6-9点;要点翻译,视翻译质量贡献值2-5点。对单个台风,翻译5~9报者,追加贡献值5点,翻译10报以上者,追加贡献值10点。
第九条 使用翻译机进行翻译的,不予加分。
第十条 台风论坛管理团队对本条例有最终解释权。




[spidyl2009于2014-09-17 09:17编辑了帖子]
5条评分, 贡献值 +13 威望 +11
  • wusifeng
    贡献值 +10
    翻译17篇额外奖励
    2014-09-17 22:05
  • wusifeng
    贡献值 2
    维护信息表至结束
    2014-09-17 21:46
  • wusifeng
    威望 6
    维护信息表至结束
    2014-09-17 21:46
  • wusifeng
    贡献值 +1
    很合理,开贴+信息表
    2014-09-12 12:46
  • wusifeng
    威望 5
    很合理,开贴+信息表
    2014-09-12 12:46
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浪子心聲 作詞:許冠傑/黎彼得 作曲:許冠傑 難分真與假 人面多險詐 幾許有共享榮華 簷畔水滴不分差 無知井裡蛙 徒望添聲價 空得意目光如麻 誰料金屋變敗瓦 命裡有時終須有 命裡無時莫強求 雷聲風雨打 何用多驚怕 心公正白璧無瑕 行善積德最樂也 人比海裡沙 毋用多牽掛 君可見漫天落霞 名利息間似霧化
spidyl2009
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发布于:2014-09-12 10:02
#1-#4  留位1
浪子心聲 作詞:許冠傑/黎彼得 作曲:許冠傑 難分真與假 人面多險詐 幾許有共享榮華 簷畔水滴不分差 無知井裡蛙 徒望添聲價 空得意目光如麻 誰料金屋變敗瓦 命裡有時終須有 命裡無時莫強求 雷聲風雨打 何用多驚怕 心公正白璧無瑕 行善積德最樂也 人比海裡沙 毋用多牽掛 君可見漫天落霞 名利息間似霧化
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spidyl2009
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2楼#
发布于:2014-09-12 10:38
15W预报理由翻译帖 #5 09月12日5时 (091121Z)
1.供气象人员使用

2. 六小时总结与分析:
热带低气压15W,位于柯诺北方约403海里,过去六小时以23节向西移动。红外线(IR)卫星动态图像显示断裂的深层对流组织正在东北与南方边缘形成,111242z的ASCAT风场扫描显示低层环流中心(LLCC)开始改善,同时具有南-北延伸的特征。东北象限风速增至25-30节,其余较弱的10-20节的风力在其他象限持续。上层气流分析显示15W处于副热带高压脊的南方并处于弱辐散区域,该高压脊提供一般般的西南外流。垂直风切正缓慢减弱,目前为低至中度(10-15节),这是由于15W维持18-23节的移动速度并与上层气流同步。15W正沿着盘踞在北的深层副热带高压脊向西移动。

3A. 预报理由无改变。
B. 热带低气压15W受副热带高压脊的引导,向西到西偏北移动,但随着在36-72小时后一道高空槽在高压脊北侧迁移,15W会进入一段减速的时期。高海面温度、改善中的辐散、下降中的垂直风切等,都将提供持续有利的环境,使15W未来60小时持续增强,并在登陆前达到台风强度。预料15W将会在稍早于72小时后在吕宋东部登陆,并在之后暂时减弱。

C. 15W在余下的预测时段将保持西偏北的移动路径,系统经过吕宋时受地形影响会短暂减弱。在120小时后,当系统靠近中国海岸,有利的环境会让15W增强。数值预报共识良好,唯因延伸预报中的强度和移动速度存在不确定性,我们预测路径的可信性为低。


WDPN31 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (FIFTEEN)
WARNING NR 05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 15W (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 403
NM NORTH OF KOROR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 23 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
BROKEN BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION FORMING ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN AND
SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES. A RECENT 111242Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION WITH A
WEAK ELONGATION IN THE NORTH-SOUTH AXIS BUT WIND SPEEDS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT HAVE INCREASED TO BETWEEN 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
WEAKER WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 20 KNOTS PERSIST IN THE REMAINING
QUADRANTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 15W REMAINS SOUTH OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS IN A WEAKLY DIVERGENT REGION,
PROVIDING MARGINAL SOUTHWESTERLY OUTFLOW. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
HAS BEEN SLOWLY WEAKENING, CURRENTLY AT LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS (10
TO 15 KNOTS), AS THE TRACK SPEED FOR TD 15W REMAINS BETWEEN 18 TO 23
KNOTS AND IN PHASE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. TD 15W CONTINUES
TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP LAYERED
REFLECTION OF THE STR LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.

3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 15W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR, BUT WILL UNDERGO A PERIOD
OF DECREASED SPEEDS AS A MIGRATORY UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSES TO THE
NORTH OF THE RIDGE BETWEEN TAU 36 AND 72. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH HIGH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND DECREASING VWS
ALLOWING TD 15W TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AND REACHING TO TYPHOON
STRENGTH BY TAU 60. TD 15W IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL IN EASTERN
LUZON SLIGHTLY BEFORE TAU 72, LEADING TO A TEMPORARY WEAKENING TREND
IN THE LATE TAUS.
   C. TD 15W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE STR REBUILDS TO
THE NORTH. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER LUZON THERE WILL BE FURTHER
WEAKENING DUE TO LAND INTERACTION, BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED. BY TAU
120 THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL CAUSE TD 15W TO INTENSIFY AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST OF CHINA. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF INTENSITY AND TRACK SPEEDS
IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//


图片:79_60828_4f4703443ddc1b5.gif


图片:15W_111732sair.jpg

[spidyl2009于2014-09-12 11:10编辑了帖子]
1条评分, 贡献值 +7
  • wusifeng
    贡献值 7
    优秀帖
    2014-09-13 11:43
浪子心聲 作詞:許冠傑/黎彼得 作曲:許冠傑 難分真與假 人面多險詐 幾許有共享榮華 簷畔水滴不分差 無知井裡蛙 徒望添聲價 空得意目光如麻 誰料金屋變敗瓦 命裡有時終須有 命裡無時莫強求 雷聲風雨打 何用多驚怕 心公正白璧無瑕 行善積德最樂也 人比海裡沙 毋用多牽掛 君可見漫天落霞 名利息間似霧化
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spidyl2009
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3楼#
发布于:2014-09-12 11:06
15W预报理由翻译帖 #6 09月12日11时 (091203Z)
1.供气象人员使用

2. 六小时总结与分析:
热带低气压15W,位于柯诺北偏西约417海里,在过去六小时以17节向西移动。动态多频卫星图像(MSI)显示低层环流中心(LLCC)在过去数小时持续改善,112057Z SSMIS微波显示早期眼墙可能正在发展中。目前的强度维持30节,乃基于PGTW和KNES过去六小时的德法分析。上层气流分析显示15W处于副热带高压脊的南方并处于弱辐散区域,该高压脊提供一般般的西南外流。垂直风切正缓慢减弱,目前为低至中度(10-15节),这是由于15W维持18-23节的移动速度并与上层气流同步。15W正沿着盘踞在北的深层副热带高压脊向西移动。

3A. 预报理由无改变。
B. 热带低气压15W受副热带高压脊的引导,向西到西偏北移动,但随着在36-48小时后一道高空槽在高压脊北侧迁移,15W会进入一段减速的时期。高海面温度、改善中的高空辐散、下降中的垂直风切等,都将提供持续有利的环境,使15W逐渐增强,并在48小时后达到台风强度。预料15W将会在约60小时后在吕宋东部登陆,然后暂时减弱。
C. 15W在余下的预测时段都将保持西偏北的移动路径,系统经过吕宋时受地形影响会短暂减弱,之后有利的环境会让15W增强。系统将在96小时后靠近中国海岸,并约在120小时后在海南北方登陆。数值预报共识保持良好,唯因延伸预报中的强度和移动速度存在不确定性,我们预测路径的可信性为低。

WDPN31 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (FIFTEEN)
WARNING NR 06//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.

2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 417 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KOROR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BEEN STEADILY IMPROVING OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS. A RECENT 112057Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS THE POSSIBLE
EARLY STAGES OF AN EYE WALL DEVELOPING. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
REMAINS AT 30 KNOTS AS DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES HAVE BEEN
PERSISTENT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
TD 15W REMAINS SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS IN A WEAKLY
DIVERGENT REGION, PROVIDING MARGINAL SOUTHWESTERLY OUTFLOW. VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS BEEN SLOWLY WEAKENING, CURRENTLY AT LOW TO
MODERATE LEVELS (10 TO 15 KNOTS), AS THE TRACK SPEED FOR TD 15W
REMAINS BETWEEN 18 TO 23 KNOTS AND IS IN PHASE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW. TD 15W CONTINUES TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP LAYERED REFLECTION OF THE STR LOCATED TO THE
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.

3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 15W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR, BUT WILL UNDERGO A PERIOD
OF DECREASED SPEEDS AS A MIGRATORY UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSES TO THE
NORTH OF THE RIDGE BETWEEN TAU 36 AND 48. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH HIGH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND DECREASING VWS
ALLOWING TD 15W TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY, REACHING TO TYPHOON STRENGTH
BY TAU 48. TD 15W IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL IN EASTERN LUZON
AROUND TAU 60, LEADING TO A TEMPORARY WEAKENING TREND IN THE LATER
TAUS.
   C. TD 15W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE STR REBUILDS TO
THE NORTH. BY TAU 96 THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL CAUSE TD 15W TO
INTENSIFY AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF CHINA, MAKING LANDFALL TO
THE NORTH OF HAINAN AROUND TAU 120. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF INTENSITY AND TRACK
SPEEDS IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST.//
NNNN

图片:wp1514.gif

[spidyl2009于2014-09-12 16:32编辑了帖子]
1条评分, 贡献值 +7
  • wusifeng
    贡献值 7
    优秀帖
    2014-09-15 19:10
浪子心聲 作詞:許冠傑/黎彼得 作曲:許冠傑 難分真與假 人面多險詐 幾許有共享榮華 簷畔水滴不分差 無知井裡蛙 徒望添聲價 空得意目光如麻 誰料金屋變敗瓦 命裡有時終須有 命裡無時莫強求 雷聲風雨打 何用多驚怕 心公正白璧無瑕 行善積德最樂也 人比海裡沙 毋用多牽掛 君可見漫天落霞 名利息間似霧化
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spidyl2009
论坛版主-副热带高压
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发布于:2014-09-12 16:56
15W预报理由翻译帖 #7 09月12日17时 (091209Z)
1.供气象人员使用

2. 六小时总结与分析:
热带风暴15W海鸥,位于菲律宾马尼拉东方约572海里,在过去六小时以14节向西移动。动态多频卫星图像(MSI)与120523Z的NOAA-19极地轨道卫星微波影像反映改善中的中央深层对流,带有紧密弯曲的对流悬臂,从北半与南半边缘卷进整合中的显示低层环流中心(LLCC)。目前定位乃基于上述MSI及微波影像,可信性高。目前强度为35节,乃基于过去六小时PGTW和KNES吻合的德法分析结果。上层气流分析显示15W处于中度(20节)的偏东风垂直风切,风切被良好的赤向辐散以及15W本身的移动抵消。15W继续沿着盘踞在北的深层副热带高压脊向西移动。

3A. 预报理由无改变。
B. 热带风暴15W将受副热带高压脊的引导,向西到西偏北移动,但随着在24-48小时后一道高空槽在高压脊北侧迁移,15W会进入一段减速的时期。有助增强的海面温度、有利的环境、更好的高空辐散等,都将使15W逐渐增强,使其在36小时后达到台风强度。15W将会在约48小时后在吕宋东部登陆,横过该区,然后受地形影响暂时减弱。
C. 在余下的预测时段,随着引导高压脊重建,15W都将保持西偏北的移动路径。随着系统将靠近中国海岸,南海有利的环境会让15W增强。数值预报共识保持良好,唯因延伸预报中的强度和移动速度存在不确定性,我们预测路径的可信性为低,靠近数值预报的共识路径。



JTWC/15W/#07/09-12 06Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN31 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W (KALMAEGI) WARNING
NR 07//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 572 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
AND 120523Z NOAA-19 MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICT IMPROVED DEEP CENTRAL
CONVECTION WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND
AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY HAS INCREASED TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AT 35 KNOTS BASED
ON CONSISTENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE (20 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY EXCELLENT
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND THE STORM MOVEMENT. TS 15W CONTINUES
TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP LAYERED
REFLECTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF
THE SYSTEM.


3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 15W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR, BUT WILL UNDERGO A PERIOD
OF DECREASED SPEEDS AS A MIGRATORY UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSES TO THE
NORTH OF THE RIDGE BETWEEN TAU 24 AND 48. IN ADDITION TO CONDUCIVE
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND
IMPROVED UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALLOWING TS
15W TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY, REACHING TYPHOON STRENGTH BY TAU 36. TS
KALMAEGI IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL INTO EASTERN LUZON AFTER TAU
48, LEADING TO A TEMPORARY WEAKENING AS IT DRIFTS ACROSS THE TERRAIN.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 15W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
THE STR REBUILDS TO THE NORTH. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WILL FURTHER ALLOW TS 15W TO INTENSIFY AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST OF CHINA. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT; HOWEVER, DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF INTENSITY AND
TRACK SPEEDS IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

图片:wp1514.gif

图片:15W_120532sams.jpg

1条评分, 贡献值 +6
  • wusifeng
    贡献值 6
    优秀帖
    2014-09-15 19:16
浪子心聲 作詞:許冠傑/黎彼得 作曲:許冠傑 難分真與假 人面多險詐 幾許有共享榮華 簷畔水滴不分差 無知井裡蛙 徒望添聲價 空得意目光如麻 誰料金屋變敗瓦 命裡有時終須有 命裡無時莫強求 雷聲風雨打 何用多驚怕 心公正白璧無瑕 行善積德最樂也 人比海裡沙 毋用多牽掛 君可見漫天落霞 名利息間似霧化
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spidyl2009
论坛版主-副热带高压
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发布于:2014-09-12 23:55
15W预报理由翻译帖 #8 09月12日23时 (091215Z)
15W预报理由翻译帖 #8 09月12日23时 (091215Z)
1.供气象人员使用

2. 六小时总结与分析:
热带风暴15W海鸥,位于菲律宾马尼拉东方约508海里,在过去六小时以11节向西移动。动态加强红外线卫星影像(EIR)显示中央深层对流增加,伴有形成的对流悬臂遮盖着低层环流中心(LLCC)。121223Z的METOP-B卫星微波扫描揭示紧密弯曲的对流悬臂,从北半与南半边缘卷进低层环流中心(LLCC)。目前定位乃基于上述EIR及微波影像,可信性一般。目前强度为40节,乃基于121232Z的ASCAT风场扫描以及所有机构的德法分析结果。上层气流分析显示15W处于低至中度(10-20节)的偏东风垂直风切,风切被良好的赤向辐散以及15W本身的移动抵消。15W继续沿着盘踞在北的深层副热带高压脊向西移动。

3A. 我们上调短期预测强度,这是因为深层对流以及整合程度增加。
B. 热带风暴15W将受副热带高压脊的引导,向西到西偏北移动,但随着未来36小时一道高空槽在高压脊北侧迁移,15W会进入一段减速的时期。有利的海面温度、环境、更好的高空辐散都将持续使15W增强,使其在24小时后达到台风强度。15W将会在约48小时后在吕宋东部登陆,横过该区,然后受地形影响暂时减弱。
C. 在余下的预测时段,随着引导高压脊重建,15W都将保持西偏北的移动路径。随着系统将靠近中国海岸,南海有利的环境会让15W进一步增强。96小时后,海鸥将因靠近华南沿岸而减弱。数值预报共识保持良好,唯因延伸预报中的强度和移动速度存在不确定性,我们预测路径的可信性为低,靠近数值预报的共识路径。


WDPN31 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W (KALMAEGI) WARNING
NR 08//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 508 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASED DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH FORMATIVE
CONVECTIVE BANDING OBSCURING A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 121223Z METOP-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY-
CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR
ANIMATION AND AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT
OF A 121223Z ASCAT PASS AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL
REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND THE
STORM MOTION. TS 15W CONTINUES TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP LAYERED REFLECTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.


3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THE SHORT-TERM INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED DUE TO
INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION AND CONSOLIDATION.
   B. TS 15W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR, BUT IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO
A PERIOD OF DECREASED SPEEDS AS A MIGRATORY UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. IN ADDITION
TO CONDUCIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS AND IMPROVED UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST ALLOWING TS 15W TO INTENSIFY, REACHING TYPHOON STRENGTH BY
TAU 24. TS KALMAEGI IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL INTO EASTERN LUZON
AROUND TAU 48, LEADING TO A TEMPORARY WEAKENING AS IT DRIFTS ACROSS
THE TERRAIN.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 15W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
THE STR REBUILDS TO THE NORTH. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) WILL FURTHER ALLOW TS 15W TO INTENSIFY AS
IT TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SCS. AFTER TAU 96, TS KALMAEGI IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CHINA.
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT; HOWEVER, DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY OF INTENSITY AND TRACK SPEEDS IN THE EXTENDED TAUS,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST, WHICH IS POSITIONED
CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

图片:wp1514.gif


图片:15W_121132sair.jpg

[spidyl2009于2014-09-13 00:03编辑了帖子]
1条评分, 贡献值 +6
  • wusifeng
    贡献值 6
    优秀帖
    2014-09-15 19:20
浪子心聲 作詞:許冠傑/黎彼得 作曲:許冠傑 難分真與假 人面多險詐 幾許有共享榮華 簷畔水滴不分差 無知井裡蛙 徒望添聲價 空得意目光如麻 誰料金屋變敗瓦 命裡有時終須有 命裡無時莫強求 雷聲風雨打 何用多驚怕 心公正白璧無瑕 行善積德最樂也 人比海裡沙 毋用多牽掛 君可見漫天落霞 名利息間似霧化
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spidyl2009
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发布于:2014-09-13 11:09
15W预报理由翻译帖 #9 09月13日05时 (091221Z)
1.供气象人员使用

2. 六小时总结与分析:
热带风暴15W海鸥,位于菲律宾马尼拉东方约492海里,在过去六小时以07节向西移动。动态加强红外线卫星影像显示整合中的低层环流中心,伴有与发展中的中心密集云层区(CDO)相联的核心对流,此外,西半对流悬臂有所加强。目前强度为50节,乃基于已经改善的结构及德法分析结果45-55节不等。121629Z GCOM-W1合成影像显示多道对流悬臂紧密卷进清晰的低层环流中心(LLCC),该LLCC位于中心密集云层区(CDO)的东北象限,因此,目前定位可信性高。虽然中度东北风切正妨碍深层对流在15W的北半圆发展,但是整体环境仍属有利:高空流出因关岛附近的高空槽而改善,另外风切正被气旋的移动路径和更接近完整的高反辐散(从水气图可见)所抵消。最近的500百帕分析显示,15W西北和北方有一个强的,东西延伸的副热带高压脊盘踞着。


3A. 预测理据没有改变。但我们轻微上调短期预测强度,这是因为整合情况改善。
B. 热带风暴15W将受副热带高压脊的引导,向西偏北移动。未来24小时,15W将通过副高中的一道裂缝的南方,预料将保持温和的移动速度(7-9节);尔后,随着一道西风脊在东亚建立,15W将转受副高西脊引导并加速。受多个利好因素影响,包括温暖的水面温度、高海潜热、良好辐散,15W将在未来36小时快速加强。海鸥将于大概42小时后在吕宋东部登陆,并因横过山区地形而暂时减弱。
C. 在余下的预测时段,随着引导高压脊继续在北盘踞,15W都将保持西偏北的移动路径。随着系统将横过南海北部,南海有利的环境会让15W增强。96小时后,海鸥将因靠近华南沿岸而减弱。数值预报共识保持紧密,因此我们预测路径的可信性为高,靠近数值预报的共识路径。

WDPN31 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W (KALMAEGI) WARNING
NR 09//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 492 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
IMPROVED CORE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST FEATURE (CDO); ADDITIONALY, CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS IMPROVED
OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS BASED ON THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE AND DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS. A 121629Z GCOM-W1
COMPOSITE IMAGE DEPICTS MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS TIGHTLY WRAPPING
INTO A WELL-DEFINED LLCC POSITIONED ON THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE
CDO, THEREFORE, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION.
DESPITE MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WHICH IS
HINDERING DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE,
THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH IMPROVED OUTFLOW INTO A
TUTT CELL LOCATED NEAR GUAM. ADDITIONALLY, THE MODERATE VWS IS BEING
REDUCED BY THE WESTWARD TRACK MOTION AND OUTFLOW HAS A MORE RADIAL
APPEARANCE IN THE ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. RECENT 500 MB
ANALYSES SHOW A STRONG, EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
ENTRENCHED TO NORTH AND NORTHWEST.

 3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE, HOWEVER, THE SHORT-TERM INTENSITY
FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY DUE TO IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION.
   B. TS 15W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TS 15W IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN MODERATE TRACK SPEEDS (07 TO 09 KNOTS) AS IT
TRANSITS SOUTH OF A BREAK IN THE STR. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
ACCELERATE AS IT TRANSITIONS TO THE WESTERN BRANCH OF THE STR, WHICH
IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS A MIDLATITUDE RIDGE BUILDS OVER EAST
ASIA. TS 15W IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 36 UNDER
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TO INCLUDE WARM SST, HIGH OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW. TS KALMAEGI IS FORECAST TO MAKE
LANDFALL OVER EASTERN LUZON NEAR TAU 42, LEADING TO A TEMPORARY
WEAKENING AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF LUZON.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 15W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
THE STR REMAINS ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) WILL FURTHER ALLOW TS 15W TO
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SCS. NEAR TAU 96, TS
KALMAEGI IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN COAST
OF CHINA. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE (INCLUDING THE MODEL ENSEMBLES) IS
IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

图片:79_49260_07e492e7a761fb3.gif

[spidyl2009于2014-09-13 11:30编辑了帖子]
3条评分, 贡献值 +7
  • wusifeng
    贡献值 -5
    -
    2014-09-17 22:04
  • wusifeng
    贡献值 5
    累积翻译5报
    2014-09-15 19:30
  • wusifeng
    贡献值 7
    优秀帖
    2014-09-15 19:29
浪子心聲 作詞:許冠傑/黎彼得 作曲:許冠傑 難分真與假 人面多險詐 幾許有共享榮華 簷畔水滴不分差 無知井裡蛙 徒望添聲價 空得意目光如麻 誰料金屋變敗瓦 命裡有時終須有 命裡無時莫強求 雷聲風雨打 何用多驚怕 心公正白璧無瑕 行善積德最樂也 人比海裡沙 毋用多牽掛 君可見漫天落霞 名利息間似霧化
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分(3)
spidyl2009
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
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7楼#
发布于:2014-09-13 11:28
15W预报理由翻译帖 #10 09月13日11时 (091303Z)
1.供气象人员使用

2. 六小时总结与分析:
热带风暴15W海鸥,位于菲律宾马尼拉东方约454海里,在过去六小时以07节向西移动。动态加强红外线卫星影像显示整合中的低层环流中心,伴有与中心密集云层区(CDO)相联的核心对流,此外,西半对流悬臂有所加强。目前强度为55节,乃基于已经改善的结构及德法分析结果55节。122356Z的 GMI影像与122252Z的 SSMIS微波影像 显示多道对流悬臂紧密卷进清晰的低层环流中心(LLCC),该LLCC位于中心密集云层区(CDO)的北象限,因此,目前定位可信性高。虽然中度东北风切正妨碍深层对流在15W的北半圆发展,但是整体环境仍属有利:高空流出因关岛附近的高空槽而改善,另外风切正被气旋的偏西移动路径和更接近完整的高反辐散(从水气图可见)所抵消。最近的500百帕分析显示,15W西北和北方有一个强的,东西延伸的副热带高压脊盘踞着。

3A. 预测理由没有改变。
B. 热带风暴15W将受副热带高压脊的引导,向西偏北移动。未来24小时,15W将通过副高裂缝以南的区域,预料将保持温和的移动速度(7-9节);尔后,随着一道西风脊在东亚建立,15W将转受副高西脊引导并加速。受多个利好因素影响,包括温暖的水面温度、高海潜热、良好辐散,15W将在未来36小时快速加强。海鸥将于大概42小时后在吕宋东部登陆,并因横过山区地形而暂时减弱。
C. 在余下的预测时段,随着引导高压脊继续在北盘踞,15W都将保持西偏北的移动路径。随着系统将横过南海北部,南海有利的环境会让15W增强。96小时后,海鸥将因靠近华南沿岸而减弱。数值预报共识保持紧密,因此我们预测路径的可信性为高,靠近数值预报的共识路径。

WDPN31 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W (KALMAEGI) WARNING
NR 10//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 454 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH IMPROVED CORE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST FEATURE (CDO); ADDITIONALLY, CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS
IMPROVED OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE
AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. A 122356Z GMI IMAGE AND
A 122252Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICT MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS TIGHTLY
WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LLCC POSITIONED ON THE NORTH QUADRANT
OF THE CDO, THEREFORE, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION. DESPITE MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
WHICH IS HINDERING DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE, THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH IMPROVED
OUTFLOW INTO A TUTT CELL LOCATED NEAR GUAM. ADDITIONALLY, THE
MODERATE VWS IS BEING REDUCED BY THE WESTWARD TRACK MOTION AND
OUTFLOW HAS A MORE RADIAL APPEARANCE IN THE ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. RECENT 500 MB ANALYSES SHOW A STRONG, EAST-WEST ORIENTED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO NORTH AND NORTHWEST.

 3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 15W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TS 15W IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN MODERATE TRACK SPEEDS (07 TO 09 KNOTS) AS IT
TRANSITS SOUTH OF A BREAK IN THE STR. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
ACCELERATE AS IT TRANSITIONS TO THE WESTERN BRANCH OF THE STR, WHICH
IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS A MIDLATITUDE RIDGE BUILDS OVER EAST
ASIA. TS 15W IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 36 UNDER
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TO INCLUDE WARM SST, HIGH OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW. TS KALMAEGI IS FORECAST TO MAKE
LANDFALL OVER EASTERN LUZON NEAR TAU 42, LEADING TO A TEMPORARY
WEAKENING AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF LUZON.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 15W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
THE STR REMAINS ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) WILL FURTHER ALLOW TS 15W TO
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SCS. NEAR TAU 96, TS
KALMAEGI IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN COAST
OF CHINA. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE (INCLUDING THE MODEL ENSEMBLES) IS
IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

图片:wp1514.gif


图片:15W_122332sams.jpg

1条评分, 贡献值 +7
  • wusifeng
    贡献值 7
    优秀帖
    2014-09-17 21:40
浪子心聲 作詞:許冠傑/黎彼得 作曲:許冠傑 難分真與假 人面多險詐 幾許有共享榮華 簷畔水滴不分差 無知井裡蛙 徒望添聲價 空得意目光如麻 誰料金屋變敗瓦 命裡有時終須有 命裡無時莫強求 雷聲風雨打 何用多驚怕 心公正白璧無瑕 行善積德最樂也 人比海裡沙 毋用多牽掛 君可見漫天落霞 名利息間似霧化
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spidyl2009
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2013-07-15
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8楼#
发布于:2014-09-13 20:15
15W预报理由翻译帖 #11 09月13日17时 (091309Z)
1.供气象人员使用

2. 六小时总结与分析:
热带风暴15W海鸥,位于菲律宾马尼拉东方约377海里,在过去六小时以14节向西偏北移动。动态多频卫星图像(MSI)显示整合中的低层环流中心(LLCC),伴有持久的中心密集云层区(CDO),而西半对流悬臂有所加强。130521Z AMSU-B微波影像 显示多道对流悬臂紧密卷进清晰的低层环流中心(LLCC),该LLCC正被中心密集云层区(CDO)覆盖。基于上述卫星影像,目前定位可信性高。目前强度增至60节,乃基于已经改善的旋臂,不过,所有机构的德法分析结果均为55节。上层分析显示中度东北风切正影响15W的北半圆,正在妨碍深层对流在该区发展。不过,系统南半圆承受低风切,具有良好的赤向外流,该外流亦因受关岛附近的高空槽影响而进一步加强。15W正沿着盘踞在北,正建立中的、东西走向的副热带高压脊向西偏北移动。

3A. 预测理由没有改变。
B. 热带风暴15W将在整个预测时段都会受副热带高压脊的主导,向西偏北移动。15W未来24小时将在温暖的水面温度、高海潜热、良好辐散等利好环境因素影响下继续增强。海鸥将于大概24小时后在吕宋东部登陆,并因横过山区地形而暂时减弱。
C. 在延伸预报时段,15W都将保持西偏北的移动路径,然后横过雷州半岛。随着系统将横过南海北部,南海有利的环境会让15W重新增强。72小时后,海鸥将因靠近华南沿岸而减弱,并最终在120小时后再陆上完全消散。数值预报(包括集成模型)共识保持紧密,因此我们预测路径的可信性为高,靠近数值预报的共识路径。

WDPN31 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W (KALMAEGI) WARNING
NR 11//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 377 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH A PERSISTENT CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE (CDO) WHILE
CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE WESTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. A 130521Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS
STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A WELL-DEFINED LLCC
THAT IS BEING OBSCURED BY THE CDO FEATURE. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE
IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED UPON THE AFOREMENTIONED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS BASED
ON THE IMPROVED BANDING WHILE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL
REPORTING AGENCIES REMAIN AT 55 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS
MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH IS HINDERING THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE; HOWEVER, THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE
SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING LOW VWS AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WHICH IS
ADDITIONALLY BEING ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL LOCATED NEAR GUAM. TS 15W
IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY A BUILDING, EAST-WEST
ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.




3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 15W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DOMINANT STR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. TS 15W WILL CONTINUALLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 24
UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TO INCLUDE WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND GOOD OUTFLOW. TS KALMAEGI
IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER EASTERN LUZON AFTER TAU 24,
LEADING TO A TEMPORARY WEAKENING AS IT CROSSES THE ROUGH TERRAIN OF
LUZON.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 15W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND ACROSS THE
LUICHOW PENINSULA. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA (SCS) WILL FURTHER ALLOW TS 15W TO RE-INTENSIFY AS IT
TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SCS. AFTER TAU 72, TS 15W IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CHINA BEFORE IT
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES BY TAU 120 OVERLAND. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
(INCLUDING THE MODEL ENSEMBLES) IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

图片:wp1514.gif

1条评分, 贡献值 +6
  • wusifeng
    贡献值 6
    优秀帖
    2014-09-17 21:42
浪子心聲 作詞:許冠傑/黎彼得 作曲:許冠傑 難分真與假 人面多險詐 幾許有共享榮華 簷畔水滴不分差 無知井裡蛙 徒望添聲價 空得意目光如麻 誰料金屋變敗瓦 命裡有時終須有 命裡無時莫強求 雷聲風雨打 何用多驚怕 心公正白璧無瑕 行善積德最樂也 人比海裡沙 毋用多牽掛 君可見漫天落霞 名利息間似霧化
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分(1)
y4t7sds12
强台风
强台风
  • 注册日期2009-07-18
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发布于:2014-09-13 22:55
#12 (14/9 12Z)
#12
1.供專業氣象人員使用
2.過去6小時總結及分析
颱風(TY)海鷗(15W)現正集結在馬尼拉以東約326海哩處,過去6小時以10海哩的速度向西北偏西移動。
加強紅外綫衛星影像衛星動畫顯示系統低層環流中心(LLCC)繼續鞏固、正建立中心雲團密集區(CDO),而西半圏及南半圏的對流繼續改善。
 130936Z的SSMIS 微波影像(圖1,2)顯示強烈的對流正捲入一類風眼區。
基於上述的衛星圖像,JTWC對系統位置信心為高。
由於系統結構改善、JMA及JTWC德法分析強度為65KTS,系統強度被提升至颱風級別(65KTS)。
高層分析顯示該區有中等(15-25KTS)垂直風切變(VVS),但已被極強的赤向流出抵消。
15W正沿位於糸統以北、増強中及東-西向的副熱帶高脊向西北偏西移動。
3.預報理由
A.没有改變。
B.預料15W在預報期内均會受強勢副高影響向西北偏西移動。
預料15W在良好環境(海水温度、高潛熱及良好流出)下在24小時内繼續增強。
24小時後,海鷗將在呂宋島東部登陸;受呂宋高山影響,15W強度將暫時減弱。
系統進入南海後會在良好環境下重新増強。
C. 72小時後,系統會橫過中國東南部沿海;令其開始減弱,並在120小時後在内陸消散。
各數値預報模式的路徑相當一致,因此JTWC對路徑預測信心為高,而且路徑和數値預報的路徑相當接近。


WDPN31 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 15W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 12//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 15W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 326 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A CONTINUALLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH A BUILDING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE (CDO) WHILE
CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. AN EARLIER 130936Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
LOOSE 37 GHZ EYE FEATURE. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION BASED UPON THE AFOREMENTIONED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO TYPHOON STRENGTH (65 KNOTS)
BASED ON THE IMPROVING STRUCTURE WHILE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW AND RJTD HAVE INCREASED TO 65 KNOTS AS WELL. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY (15 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) WHICH IS BEING OFFSET BY VIGOROUS EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. TY 15W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY A
BUILDING, EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 15W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DOMINANT STR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. TY 15W WILL CONTINUALLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 24 UNDER
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TO INCLUDE WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND STRONG OUTFLOW. TY
KALMAEGI IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER EASTERN LUZON NEAR TAU
24, LEADING TO A TEMPORARY WEAKENING AS IT CROSSES THE ROUGH TERRAIN
OF LUZON. AS THE SYSTEM RE-EMERGES INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TY 15W TO RE-INTENSIFY
AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SOUTH CHINA SEA.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 15W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT PROCEEDS WEST-
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CHINA BEFORE IT EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATES BY TAU 120 OVERLAND. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN




图片:20140913.0936.f17.x.91h_1deg.15WKALMAEGI.60kts-978mb-147N-1275E.82pc.jpg


图片:20140913.0936.f17.x.colorpct_91h_91v_1deg.15WKALMAEGI.60kts-978mb-147N-1275E.82p



图片:wp1514.gif

[y4t7sds12于2014-09-13 22:58编辑了帖子]
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  • wusifeng
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    2014-09-17 21:43
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