[SH(14-15)]西南印度洋92S - 16.2S 83.9E
楼主#更多 发布于：2015-03-30 15:18
Area of disturbed weather South of the Chagos :
Ascat data of this morning along with micro-wave (TRMM 0706Z) and classical imagery suggest
that there is still no well defined surface closed circulation associated. Although thunderstorm
activity is locally strong over the area, the low level structure remains ill-defined and embedded
within the MT.
For the next few days, the low level conditions should remain very marginal for cyclogenesis (at the
end of the week, the equatorial inflow is even expected to weaken). Considering the expected
motion of this area, there is still some significant spread. The most likely scenario, given the latest
guidance, is little forward motion for much part of the week before a possible westwards track later
as the subtropical highs should strengthen from the south-east. An alternative scenario is complete
dissipation before that time ...
Friday or Saturday, another low may form within the eastern part of the MT (East of 80E and
The likelihood that a tropical depression develops over our AoR remains low for the next five