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[SH(14-15)]西南印度洋92S - 16.2S 83.9E

楼主#
更多 发布于:2015-03-30 15:18
20150330.0700.meteo7.x.vis2km.92SINVEST.15kts-NAmb-138S-800E

图片:20150330.0700.meteo7.x.vis2km.92SINVEST.15kts-NAmb-138S-800E.100pc.jpg

[iam最小值于2015-04-01 08:50编辑了帖子]
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iam最小值
论坛版主-副热带高压
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1楼#
发布于:2015-03-30 22:54
91S和92S属于一个低压区,一个在70E,一个80E,目前两者的中心还不甚明显,后面可能还要调整多次定位。EC的预测是左右分开发展,一个向西一个向东,GFS,不好意思,虽然分开但不支持成旋。
 
Area of disturbed weather South of the Chagos :
Ascat data of this morning along with micro-wave (TRMM 0706Z) and classical imagery suggest
that there is still no well defined surface closed circulation associated. Although thunderstorm
activity is locally strong over the area, the low level structure remains ill-defined and embedded
within the MT.
For the next few days, the low level conditions should remain very marginal for cyclogenesis (at the
end of the week, the equatorial inflow is even expected to weaken). Considering the expected
motion of this area, there is still some significant spread. The most likely scenario, given the latest
guidance, is little forward motion for much part of the week before a possible westwards track later
as the subtropical highs should strengthen from the south-east. An alternative scenario is complete
dissipation before that time ...

Friday or Saturday, another low may form within the eastern part of the MT (East of 80E and
between 10S/15S).

The likelihood that a tropical depression develops over our AoR remains low for the next five
days.

图片:20150330.1130.meteo7.x.vis2km.92SINVEST.15kts-NAmb-138S-800E.100pc.jpg

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强台风
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2楼#
发布于:2015-04-01 16:49
NRL把这个撤了,不过EC依旧预报80E以东有系统发展,看来后面会另外编号扰动。
 

图片:20150401.0430.meteo7.x.vis1km_high.92SINVEST.15kts-1010mb-167S-837E.100pc.jpg


 

图片:20150401.0430.meteo7.x.vis2km.92SINVEST.15kts-1010mb-167S-837E.100pc.jpg

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