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[深度追击][2015] 1506号"红霞"(06W.NOUL) || 1507号"白海豚"(07W.DOLPHIN)联合深度追击帖

楼主#
更多 发布于:2015-05-05 11:35
6号台风红霞已于5月4日凌晨2点生成,7号台风白海豚的扰动93w也已出现,正式命名也就是本周内的事情。两个台风显然都将是转向台风,对中国的直接影响不会太大。
 
然而,两个台风的强度都将是一代豪杰的水平,红霞虽然面临菲东下沉区不利条件的影响,但其核心小,天气学条件优异,一轮猛烈爆发是可以预期的。而白海豚是天之骄子,条件极佳,有可能成为5月最强台风之一。双台风在五月的并立,不仅是难得的盛景,更将是引爆环流剧变的催化剂。
 
上一次五月超台是2011年的桑达,它同时也是最近的一次五月Cat.5;上一次五月双台风要追溯到2009年,那时灿鸿和鲸鱼分别位于南海和西北太平洋;上一次双台风同时位于暖池,则要继续向前追溯到2004年。五月台风不少见,五月双台风也不能说罕见,但五月出现两个超台,则为二战以来仅有,只有2008年接近这一情况。2015年,5月双超台可能成为现实,这将是红霞和白海豚创造的第一个纪录。
 
红霞的强度预报上,EC调整较大,GFS相对稳定。现在来看,EC这次败于GFS的可能性很大。因为EC太重视大尺度的环流条件,认为红霞将被副高死死压制,忽视了红霞的核心结构特点。事实上,除了副高压制这一点外,红霞面临的各项条件都是非常好的,而且它拥有一个稳定精致的核心区,一旦北侧高压增强、辐合条件提升后,爆发就将开始,CMA的超台预报,我认为不是问题。但红霞的空间毕竟较小,下沉区如影随形,要它冲击5月历史强度纪录不太现实。
 
而白海豚位于上升区,各方面条件均属极佳,不足之处在于扰动面积太大、纬度太低,目前辐合不足。所以EC对其也不是一直看好,“又大又散”的魔咒不时出现。不过白海豚的空间非常大,副高也将适时在其北方加强,待正式命名后,EC的预报会怎样才是关键。总体来看,白海豚有可能挑战lola甚至amy,成为5月最强台风之一,这将是红霞和白海豚创造的第二个纪录。
 
毫无疑问,不管具体强度,两个台风将又强又长寿,对ACE的拉动效应是不可小觑的。在美莎克的拉动下,今年西太ACE指数已经打破45年来的纪录,是长年同期的7倍左右,红霞和白海豚会继续将这个纪录抬高到无可逾越的地步,到5月20号,西太ACE甚至可能达到常年8月份的水平。数量和ACE的爆表,这是红霞和白海豚带来的第三个纪录。
[katrina于2015-08-14 21:20编辑了帖子]
2条评分, 威望 +5 贡献值 +3
  • Luigi728
    贡献值 +3
    優秀帖 (P.S. 標題編號是否寫錯?紅霞是1506、白海豚1507吧...)
    2015-05-05 12:02
  • Luigi728
    威望 +5
    優秀帖 (P.S. 標題編號是否寫錯?紅霞是1506、白海豚1507吧...)
    2015-05-05 12:02
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1楼#
发布于:2015-05-05 11:50
4月下旬以来,东亚西风总体平直偏北,而副热带高压又转为正常偏南,我国境内少有气团交锋,天气平静。只有一次像样的短波过程,即4.26-4.28之间,先是西北、东北暴暖并创造历史记录,随后冷涡南下长三角,制造大范围强雷雨和冰雹天气过程。除此之外,这个时期该有的华南暴雨、西南高温均隐姓埋名,难以辨认。

红霞和白海豚将改变这种情况。但是,首先不要指望它们直接引爆南海西南季风。因为两个台风的活动场地都偏离西南季风关键区很远,它们对季风的拉动,更多地体现在1、西北太平洋赤道西风的增强;2、印尼和新几内亚跨赤道气流的增强;3、北印度洋西南急流的建立。但不管怎么说,两大台风的牵引,将使得夏季风北上的速度大大加快,南海夏季风指标可能会在白海豚转向时超过爆发临界点。

其次,红霞和白海豚都将加剧西风经向活动,让日本的槽更多更深,让我国的西风带进一步北抬,西北沙漠地区正好位于锋区南侧,将会迎来更厉害的干热天气,热堆东传后,内蒙和东北也将效仿,有可能打破5月纪录。华南的降水在白海豚转向后可能会短暂增多,但随后北跳的副高可能会中断夏季风,让其重归高温少雨。华东的降水和华南恰好呈反向关系。
2条评分, 威望 +5 好评度 +1
  • katrina
    好评度 +1
    优秀帖
    2015-05-06 11:47
  • katrina
    威望 5
    优秀帖
    2015-05-06 11:47
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2楼#
发布于:2015-05-05 23:26
还有一个影响没说,是比较远期的
就是双台风将让赤道西风大为增强,远远超过常年平均值。这样暖水东进态势会加剧,厄尔尼诺可能会来的更快更猛。中部型厄尔尼诺导致了早春远洋台风的兴盛,而这些台风又对厄尔尼诺的发展有影响,气候和天气的影响是很微妙的。
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3楼#
发布于:2015-05-07 00:32
据说luigi把我上面这两段拙作翻译成英文出口了

如果方便也发这里一份,出口转内销嘛
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4楼#
发布于:2015-05-07 00:50
老干部锛毦菟祃uigi把我上面这两段拙作翻译成英文出口了

如果方便也发这里一份,出口转内销嘛
鍥炲埌鍘熷笘
你居然發現了我在Facebook發佈的翻譯?(我真的嚇了一跳啊...)
那我也把英文翻譯版本也發到這裡吧(有些地方翻譯得不太好,請見諒,如有發現錯誤歡迎提醒一下):



Typhoon 1506 Noul has been named at 2:00am on 4th May, and Tropical Disturbance 93W has formed already as well, and will soon become Typhoon 1507 Dolphin in this week. Both typhoons are forecasted to be typhoons that move towards the northeast, and will not have significant impact to China.

However, both typhoons' intensity are forecasted to be epic. Even though Noul is affected by the unfavorable environment, but due to its small core, an explosive deepening can be expected. While Dolphin can enjoy extremely favorable environment, and it is possible to become one of the strongest typhoons in May ever. Two typhoons standing together in the season of May, is not only a very rare scene, but can also cause a huge change in circumference of the whole Northwest Pacific Ocean and East Asia.

The last Super Typhoon in May was Typhoon Sognda of 2011, and it is also the last time there is a Category 5 Typhoon in May. The last time there were double typhoons in May was in 2009, where Chan-hom was in South China Sea, Kujira was in Northwest Pacific. While the last time there were double typhoons in May both in the Northwest Pacific (discluding South China Sea) was in 2004. Typhoon sin May are not rare, double typhoons in May are not exceptionally rare as well, but two Super Typhoons standing together in May has never happened ever since World War 2, only 2008 has been closed to this situation. In 2015, two Super Typhoons in May can become reality, this could become the first record that Noul and Dolphin will create.

About Noul's forecasted intensity, EC has more adjustments in forecast, while GFS's forecast is more stable. Seeing from now, the chance of EC's forecast losing to GFS is pretty big. This is because EC paid too much attention on the large scale circumfluence conditions, believing that Noul would be suppressed by Subtropical Ridge, neglecting the structural feature of Noul. In reality, except for the point that Noul is suppressed by Subtropical Ridge, all the other environmental condictions that Noul is facing are all very favorable, and Noul has a stable and refined core, which means that whenever the northern high pressure system intensifies, explosive depending will start. China Meteorology Agency (CMA)'s Super Typhoon intensity forecast, I think is possible. However, Noul's space is still quite limited, having it to challenge the strongest typhoon intensity of May is not quite reliable.

While Dolphin is situated in an extremely variable environment in all aspects, the only difficulties are its large size and its too low latitude. Therefore EC wasn't especially optimistic about it. But Dolphin has very large space, and Subtropical Ridge would also intensity in its north at the right timing, so after it is officially named, the forecast from EC would be more important. Overall, Dolphin has the chance of challenge Typhoon Lola or even Amy, to become one of the strongest typhoons of May, this would become the second record that Noul and Dolphin can create.

Without question, no matter what the specific intensity is, both typhoons will be very strong and long living, which will cause a huge increase in the ACE. Due to Maysak, this year's Northwest Pacific ACE has already become the highest in 45 years, and is 7 times of the average value. Noul and Dolphin will continue to raise this record to an unimaginable level, possibly even causing the ACE to reach the average ACE level in August! The forecasted record high in ACE, would be the third record that Noul and Dolphin will create.



Since late April, the East Asia Westerlies is overally in a north position, while Subtropical Ridge was in a more south poitiion than usual, causing little amount of air mass meeting, leading to unusually calm weather. There was only one decent shortwave process, which is during 26th to 28th April, first northwestern and northeastern China becoming extremely warm and breaking records, then the cold vortex moves south towards Yangtze River Delta, creating large areas of strong thunderstorms and hail. Other than this, thunderstorms in Southern China and high temperatures in Southwestern China that should have happened in this time of year, both were illegible.

Noul and Dolphin will change this situation. But first, do not expect them to directly detonate South China Sea Southwest Monsoon. Because both typhoons' activity areas are very far away from the key area for southwest monsoon, their effect on the monsoon, is reflected more on: 1. The intensification of Northwest Pacific Ocean equatorial westerlies; 2. The intensification of cross equatorial flow in Indonesia and Papua New Guinea; 3. The establishment of North Indian Ocean southwest jet stream. But no matter what, two big typhoon's tow will significantly increase the speed of summer monsoon heading north, South China Sea summer monsoon index could possibly reach over the critical point of breaking out.

第三段其實還沒翻譯好,我明天再翻譯完吧
7条评分, 金钱 +15 好评度 +5 威望 +30 贡献值 +5
  • 菜包zz
    金钱 +5
    给词汇量跪了,从未达到过这样的水平。。。
    2015-05-10 13:59
  • 小范老师
    金钱 +5
    english 学霸!!!你就是我们老师天天让我学习的词汇霸啊!
    2015-05-09 19:17
  • 让丶时光倒流
    好评度 +5
    卧槽,香港英语水平...
    2015-05-07 21:03
  • 超强台风三巴
    金钱 +5
    优秀帖
    2015-05-07 18:37
  • wusifeng
    威望 10
    优秀帖
    2015-05-07 06:01
  • 老干部
    贡献值 5
    我觉得我已经写不出这样的英语了
    2015-05-07 00:58
  • 老干部
    威望 20
    我觉得我已经写不出这样的英语了
    2015-05-07 00:58
即使可能性非常非常小,但我還是願意相信,某一天我會等到奇蹟的發生。無論你對我有沒有感覺,無論你會不會被我感動,無論這一切會不會有結果,我都願意無怨無悔的為你執著到底。就如天文台說「即使再來一次,也會同樣發出八號風球」一樣,即使再來一次,我也會願意為你付出一切。即使這個故事永遠沒有結局,這一切也值得。因為,親愛的,我愛你。因為我愛你,所以我願意繼續等待奇蹟,繼續等待我們的結局,繼續為了我們幸運快樂的結局而奮鬥下去!
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