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[IO]阿拉伯海气旋风暴“亚索巴”(ARB 01/01A.Ashobaa) - 北印首旋

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更多 发布于:2015-06-03 20:31
95A INVEST 150603 1200   8.5N   65.7E IO   15   NA

图片:20150603.1230.meteo7.x.vis2km.95AINVEST.15kts-NAmb-85N-657E.100pc.jpg

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论坛版主-副热带高压
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1楼#
发布于:2015-06-03 20:44
GFS和EC均支持,应该就是亚索巴了。GFS报出强度较强,EC反应则弱一些。GFS甚至预报直接灌进阿曼湾严重影响阿曼首都马斯喀特

图片:gfs_pres_wind_ind_31.png

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拉姆爱推销
论坛版主-副热带高压
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2楼#
发布于:2015-06-04 04:44
LOW
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.6N 68.6E,
APPROXIMATELY 715 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEPENING, ALBEIT
DISORGANIZED, AREA OF CONVECTION WITH A POORLY-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS IN AN
AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. NUMERIC
WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING THIS AREA INTO
A 35-KNOT SYSTEM IN AS EARLY AS 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

图片:9635203feafd3326a9ba172991503218.jpg

[拉姆爱推销于2015-06-04 12:33编辑了帖子]
你猜论坛什么时候能校准时间,什么时候能开放头像功能?
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meow
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3楼#
发布于:2015-06-04 14:17
预测路径出来了
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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meow
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4楼#
发布于:2015-06-04 23:37
GFS很坚定啊,认为6日凌晨就会成为气旋风暴,预测最终登陆阿曼和阿联酋交界。
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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5楼#
发布于:2015-06-05 04:46
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.6N 68.6E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 69.9E, APPROXIMATELY 490 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
FLARING AND DISORGANIZED AREA OF DEEP BUT FRAGMENTED CONVECTION WITH
A POORLY-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. NUMERIC WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING THIS AREA INTO A 35-KNOT SYSTEM IN AS EARLY
AS 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
你猜论坛什么时候能校准时间,什么时候能开放头像功能?
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6楼#
发布于:2015-06-05 16:45
ABIO10 PGTW 050630
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/050630Z-051800ZJUN2015//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 69.9E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 66.8E, APPROXIMATELY 565 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN ILL-DEFINED CENTER. A 050150Z WINDSAT 37
GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS FORMATIVE, FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
INTO AN IMPROVING LLCC. RECENT TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ALSO
SUPPORTS A CONSOLIDATING LLCC AND SHOWS AMPLE DEEP MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. RECENT SCATTEROMETER IMAGERY PROVIDES
FURTHER EVIDENCE OF A BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER WITH 10 TO 15 KNOT
WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE VALUES
ARE VERY FAVORABLE AT 29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS WITH HIGH OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT VALUES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH EXPANDING POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWARD, OVER
THE NEXT TWO DAYS, ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE POLEWARD-
ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHILE CONSOLIDATING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARAGRAPH 1.B.(1) TO
MEDIUM.//

图片:abiosair.jpg

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7楼#
发布于:2015-06-05 16:47
WTIN20 DEMS 050708

REGIONAL SPECIALISED METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE-TROPICAL CYCLONES,
NEW DELHI
                TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 05-06-2015
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL
AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 72 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC
OF 05TH JUNE 2015 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 05TH JUNE 2015.
BAY OF BENGAL & ANDAMAN SEA ACCORDING TO LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY,
BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE
CONVECTION LIES OVER BAY OF BENGAL BETWEEN LATITUDE 10.0N TO 19.0N
LONGITUDE 84.0E TO 90.0E. SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH
EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION LIES OVER NORTHEAST BAY
OF BENGAL AND ARAKAN COAST.
PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS OVER BAY OF BENGAL AND ANDAMAN SEA
DURING NEXT 72 HOURS:
                  24 HOURS        24-48 HOURS        48-72 HOURS
                     NIL              NIL               NIL
ARABIAN SEA:-
BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE
CONVECTION LIES OVER ARABIAN SEA BETWEEN LATITUDE 5.0N TO 16.0N EAST
OF LONGITUDE 58.0E.
PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS OVER ARABIAN SEA DURING NEXT 72 HOURS:
             24 HOURS      24-48 HOURS        48-72 HOURS
                NIL            NIL                NIL

PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION)
NIL: 0%, LOW: 1-25%, FAIR: 26-50%, MODERATE: 51-75% AND
HIGH: 76-100%=
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8楼#
发布于:2015-06-06 03:00
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.3N
66.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 67.6E, APPROXIMATELY 560 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO DEPICT A BROAD AREA OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION WITH
FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A SLOWLY-CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 051433Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY,
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS) AND HIGH
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE POLEWARD ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
DUE TO PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL UPPER-
LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
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9楼#
发布于:2015-06-06 17:02
WTIN20 DEMS 060600
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 06-06-2015

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL
AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 72 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF 06TH
 JUNE 2015 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 06TH JUNE 2015.

ARABIAN SEA:-
ACCORDING TO LATEST OBSERVATIONS, A LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS FORMED
OVER SOUTHEAST AND ADJOINNG EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA.
AS PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY, BROKEN LOW  AND MEDIUM  CLOUDS WITH
 EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTTION  LIES OVER ARABIAN
SEA BETWEEN  LATITUDE 9.0 DEG N AND 19.0 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 61.0 DEG
E AND
74.0 DEG E IN ASSOCIATION WITH  ABOVE SYSTEM. THE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS
ARE
 STILL FRAGMENTED IN THE EMBEDDED BROAD SCALE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.
THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPEREATURE IS -70 DEG C. THE ORGANISTION IS
TAKING PLACE VERY SLOWLY. THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED NORTHWARD DURING
PAST 24 HOURS. ACCORDING TO LATEST BUOY AND ASCAT OBSERVATIONS, THE
ASSOCIATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ABOUT 10-20 KTS.
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 1005 HPA.
CONSIDERING THE ENVIRONMENTAL FEATURES, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS
 29-30 DEG C, OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY IS ABOUT 80-100 KJ/CM2, LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS (10-15)X10-5 SECOND-1 , UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS
ABOUT (10-20)X10-5 SECOND-1, THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE VORTICITY IS
ABOUT (5-10)X10-5SECOND-1, VERTCAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW TO MODERATE
(10-20 KNOTS). UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE LIES ALONG 20 DEG N AND
MIDDLE
 TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS NEAR ABOUT 16 DEG N. THERE IS TROUGH IN
WESTERLIES IN MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM. UNDER
 THESE CONDITIONS, THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WOULD MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWARDS/NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS DURING NEXT 48 HOURS AND THEN
NORTHWESTWARDS. AS THE SYSTEM WOULD MOVE NORTHWARDS IT MAY
ENCOUNTER LOWER SST, LOWER OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY AND HIGHER VERTICAL
 WIND SHEAR.
CONSIDERING THE NWP MODEL GUIDANCE, MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
INCLUDING NECP-GFS, IMD-GFS, UKMO, ECMWF AND JMA MODELS DO NOT SHOW
 INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM AND RESTRICT THE PREDICTED INTENSITY
 UPTO LOW PRESSURE AREA / WELL MARKED LOW DURING NEXT 72 HOURS. ONLY
A FEW MODELS LIKE GLOBAL TROPICAL MODEL OF METEOFRANCE SHOWS
INTENSIFICATION OF THE LOW INTO A DEPRESSION ON 7TH JUNE.
BASED ON THE ABOVE SYNOPTIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AS WELL AS
THE NWP MODEL GUIDANCE THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WOULD BECOME WELL
MARKED LOW DURING NEXT 48 HOURS.
PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS OVER ARABIAN SEA DURING NEXT 72 HOURS:

24 HOURS    24-48 HOURS    48-72 HOURS
  NIL       NIL            LOW

BAY OF BENGAL & ANDAMAN SEA

ACCORDING TO LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY, BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS
WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LIES OVER BAY OF
BENGAL BETWEEN LATITUDE 14.0 DEG N AND 18.0 DEG N AND TO THE WEST OF
LONGITUDE 87.0 DEG E.

PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS OVER BAY OF BENGAL & ANDAMAN SEA DURING
 NEXT 72 HOURS:
24 HOURS    24-48 HOURS    48-72 HOURS
  NIL       NIL            NIL=
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