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[报文翻译]1515号热带气旋“天鹅”(16W.Goni)之JTWC预报理由翻译帖

楼主#
更多 发布于:2015-08-14 18:55
             
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说明:
1、由于该热带系统未来发展态势良好,且可能影响我国东部或东南部沿海,所以特开此贴。
2、本贴翻译JTWC报文,时间以协调世界時的作准。
3、翻译前为防止重复翻译原则上需要预约,可以直接回帖预约或发私信至开帖人预约。
4、为信息展示需要,请将报文原文和译文放置于同一楼层。若回帖预约的,请将翻译放在预约帖。
5、有时间的童鞋建议全文翻译,我们也鼓励抓要点进行简单翻译,简单翻译的要点:
发报时定位,过去的移动速度、结构、强度、环境场,未来的强度、路径、环境场,数值的预测。
6、本帖不允许发与翻译和预约不相符的内容,否则将被视为灌水删帖处理。
7、翻译中若若有其他任何疑惑,欢迎加入翻译小组QQ群152955236加入我们的讨论。

 
组织规则:
第一条 预报理由翻译贴是对JTWC Reasoning文件进行翻译的专贴。由于气旋的Reasoning文件翻译量不定,因此需要一定的人事组织,参与组织或翻译的会员将获得一定程度的奖励。
第二条 任何会员都可对任何JTWC升格的系统开贴,但原则上建议只对我国有影响的系统开帖。对不影响我国的系统,不建议单独开贴,翻译者可在追击贴或深度贴内进行,版主将按第八条之标准酌情加分。
第三条 开帖人默认为组织人,负责更新首楼的翻译信息表,并履行好翻译工作的责任,自己开帖让别人翻译的行为将被谴责及追究。如遇多人开贴,则同“抢扰动”规则,只保留一个帖子。若开帖人无时间组织,可委托管理团队组织。
第四条 翻译的模式有两种,分别为全部翻译、要点翻译。实践中,不建议连续全文翻译,可针对预报理由变动进行要点总结。
第五条 内容发布时,报文原文、中文翻译必须齐全。
第六条 开贴加分:开帖人翻译一篇或以上报文,威望+5;否则削减为威望+2。
第七条 组织加分:开设翻译信息表,贡献值+1;维护翻译信息表至台风结束,根据台风维持时间长短,追加贡献值2点,威望3~8点。
第八条 内容加分:全文翻译,视翻译质量加贡献值6-9点;要点翻译,视翻译质量贡献值2-5点。对单个台风,翻译5~9报者,追加贡献值5点,翻译10报以上者,追加贡献值10点。
第九条 使用翻译机进行翻译的,不予加分。
第十条 台风论坛管理团队对本条例有最终解释权。
[颱風巨爵于2016-07-02 18:11编辑了帖子]
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1楼#
发布于:2015-08-14 18:56
08140900Z----#2
 WDPN31 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 16W (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 297 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION SLIGHTLY DISPLACED OVER
THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI
AND SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 16W IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE
(10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) BEING OFFSET BY EXCELLENT
DIVERGENT OUTFLOW WITH AN EQUATORWARD BIAS. ADDITIONALLY, THE TUTT
CELL LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES DISRUPTING
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS)
ABOVE 28 CELSIUS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TD 16W IS
TRACKING SLOWLY WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. SLOW MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS A BUILDING NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE
(NER) TO THE SOUTHEAST COMPLICATES THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT. AS THE
SYSTEM GAINS LATITUDE, TOWARDS THE AFOREMENTIONED TUTT CELL, EXPECT
MODEST INTENSIFICATION DUE TO THE INCREASED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. BEYOND
TAU 36, THE STR TO THE NORTH WILL REASSUME THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT,
TURNING THE CYCLONE TO THE WEST. CONCURRENTLY, THE TUTT CELL WILL
MOVE DOWNSTREAM FROM TD 16W, PROVIDING A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
WHICH WILL INCREASE THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION. BY TAU 48, TD 16W
IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) DUE TO STRONG DUAL
CHANNEL OUTFLOW, LOW VWS, HIGH SSTS AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT.
   C. TD 16W WILL MAINTAIN ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY UNDER
THE DOMINANT STR. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OPTIMAL TO
CONTINUE RI THROUGH TAU 96. BEYOND TAU 96, AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE WILL ONCE AGAIN REDUCE THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW
AND INCREASE THE VWS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL REDUCE THE RATE OF
INTENSIFICATION. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS OVERALL IN FAIR
AGREEMENT, HOWEVER, DUE TO THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND TRACK SPEEDS IN THE SHORT TERM, THE
JTWC TRACK CONFIDENCE LEVEL REMAINS LOW.//
NNNN
1.供气象专家使用
2.热带低压16W,位于关岛东南东297海里处,并以在过去6小时以5节的速度向西移动。MSI显示其拥有一个半裸的底层以及主题位于东侧半圆的对流。现在的定位是来自于MSI和PGTW以及RJTD的修正,我们有一定的信心。25节的强度则是基于PGTW,RJTD,KNES的全面的德沃夏克分析法的分析。高层分析显示16W目前位于低到中等(10-20节)的风切区和良好的吃向流出。另外,系统东北侧的TUTT持续阻碍16W整合对流。然而超过28度的高海温将会给16W带来长远的有助于系统的发展。16W在位于其北缘的副高南缘缓慢向西移动
3.
A. 预报理由无明显改变
B.缓慢的移速被预计因为正在建立的南侧的一个NER会使环流变得更加复杂。正当系统获得纬向的移动方向,朝着之前所提到的TUTT。系统强度将有中等的提升由于高加强的高空下沉气流。36小时后,北侧的副高将再次影响周围的环流,让系统向西移动。同时TUTT也会向系统的下游移去,为系统带来极向流出,并且会使系统加强,到了48小时后,16W将会有一个快速的发展,由于双倍的流出(其实是极向+赤向)以及高海温,高潜热,低风切。
C.TD16W将保持着西北西的移动在副高的引导下。好的环境因素带来的快速发展将会持续到96小时。96小时后,系统西北侧的高层高压脊,将会减弱其流出以及带来高层风切,并让系统强度减弱。数值预测有一个较好的一致意见,但是因为复杂的环流和路径不确定性以及移度,我们的对路径的信心低
[小范老师于2015-08-14 19:26编辑了帖子]
1条评分, 贡献值 +6
  • 风王2012
    贡献值 6
    可多尝试翻译,注意语言的通顺
    2015-08-21 16:13
うるさくてたまらないんだ...
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颱風巨爵
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发布于:2015-08-15 22:27
16W預報理由翻譯帖 #6 — 八月十五日十七時(081509Z)
1. 供氣象學家使用
2. 六小時總結與分析:
熱帶風暴16W(天鵝)集結在羅塔島以東約64海哩,過去六小時以12節向西北移動。動態多頻衛星圖像(MSI)顯示,低層環流中心部分外露但持續有深厚對流覆蓋南則。下午一時(150501Z)的特別微波探測圖像儀 (SSMI)和關島的雷達,都顯示最深厚的對流在風暴的南部以及一些雲帶特徵。系統的位置是基於上述的圖像和雷達,所以我們信心良好。基於觀測,和RJTD及PGTW給出達到3.0的德沃夏克指數(DT),系統的強度被調升至45節。高空分析顯示垂直風切變低而赤向流出良好。熱帶風暴16W正沿深厚的副熱帶高壓脊南緣移動。
3. 預報理由
A. 預報理由對比上次沒有改變
B. 熱帶風暴16W在未來72小時會在副熱帶高壓脊引導下繼續朝西北移動。該深厚副熱帶高壓脊會緩慢地東移,熱帶風暴天鵝將圍繞該脊移動。48小時內,預期少量增強;其後,逐漸靠近的中緯度西風槽將帶來非常好的極向流出,引領系統迅速增強。
C. 72小時後,熱帶風暴16W預期會繼續向西北移動,並於96小時後增強至達115節的巔峰強度。在預報尾段時間,由於垂直風切變上升和較低的海洋潛熱,預測系統將會衰退。由於數值預報整體有良好共識,我們對路徑預測有高度信心。

图片:wp1615.gif

图片:16W_150532sams.jpg



WDPN31 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 16W (GONI) WARNING NR
06//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 64 NM EAST
OF ROTA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MSI DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LLCC WITH PERSISTENT
DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LLCC. A
150501Z SSMI, AS WELL AS RADAR FROM GUAM, SHOW THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STORM IN ADDITION TO SOME
BANDING FEATURES. THE POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
IMAGERY AND RADAR WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO 45 KNOTS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AS WELL AS A DT OF 3.0
FROM RJTD AND PGTW. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW VWS AND GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TS 16W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE DEEP STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 16W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. THE DEEP STR WILL SLOWLY
TRACK TO THE EAST, ALLOWING TS GONI TO ROUND THE RIDGE. EXPECT
NOMINAL INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 48 WITH RAPID INTENSIFICATION
AFTERWARDS DUE TO VERY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW  FROM AN APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS 16W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD AND INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 115 KNOTS BY TAU 96. EXPECT
THE SYSTEM TO DECAY AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO
INCREASED VWS AND LOWER OHC VALUES. MODEL GUIDANCE IS OVERALL IN
GOOD AGREEMENT, AS SUCH, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST.//
NNNN
[颱風巨爵于2015-08-17 20:02编辑了帖子]
2条评分, 贡献值 +23
  • 风王2012
    贡献值 15
    翻译10报以上奖励10贡献,多出来的5贡献是奖励对每一次翻译的优秀质量
    2015-08-25 22:20
  • 风王2012
    贡献值 8
    优秀帖
    2015-08-21 16:14
Society is dead, long live society!
是誰令青山也變,變了俗氣的嘴臉?又是誰令碧海也變,變作濁流滔天?
【特輯】 淺談JTWC和預報理由
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luhang
论坛版主-副热带高压
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发布于:2015-08-16 09:10
16W预报理由翻译帖 #07 08月15日23时 (081515Z)
1. 供气象学者使用。
2. 过去6小时的总结与分析。
热带风暴(TS)16W(天鹅),目前位于罗塔岛东北偏东方约39 nm的海面上,并继续以6节的速度向西偏北方向移动。增强红外云图动画表示大部分LLCC被深对流覆盖。150817Z的SSMIS图像显示出较强的对流带紧紧缠绕着LLCC,151157Z的ASCAT显示 LLCC仍然稍微拉长,但依然有良好的结构。在位置和(德沃夏克分析法分析的)强度的基础上因ASCAT表示的风场而将上修强度至50节。高层分析显示系统正位于在低垂直风切变且拥有双流出通道。TS 16W正沿着副热带高压南部向西移动。
3. 预报理由。
A. 预报理由没有改变。
B. 接下来TS 16W将在副热带高压的引导下继续向西移动,预计副热带高压的变化使系统逐渐移动至西北。由于条件仍有利于系统发展,未来72小时TS天鹅的强度会继续增强。
C. 延展期预测。预计( 天鹅 )会在槽前因良好的极向流出而快速增强。但是,后期垂直风切变的增强和低OHC值将使TS 16W有所减弱。由于预报的路径与数值预报的模式仍然保持良好的共识,使JTWC对路径的预测有较高的信心。

WDPN31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 16W (GONI) WARNING NR
07//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 39 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF ROTA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED IR IMAGERY DEPICTS A MORE
CONSOLIDATED LLCC THAT IS OBSCURED BY THE DEEP CONVECTION. A 150817Z
SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS GOOD CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE
LLCC AND A 151157Z ASCAT SHOWS THE LLCC REMAINS SLIGHTLY ELONGATED,
BUT WITH GOOD STRUCTURE. THE POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON THE
ASCAT IMAGE WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTENSITY TO 50 KNOTS. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS THE SYSTEM IN LOW VWS AND DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW.
TS 16W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 16W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. EXPECT THE STR TO ELONGATE
AND THUS ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST, VICE STRICTLY
ZONAL. AS CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, AN AVERAGE
INCREASE IN INTENSITY OF TS GONI IS FORECASTED THOUGH TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, EXPECT NEAR RAPID INTENSIFICATION
DUE TO VERY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW FROM AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. HOWEVER, BY THE END OF THE FORECAST, INCREASED VWS AND LOWER
OHC VALUES WILL FORCE A SLIGHT DECAY OF TS 16W. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[luhang于2015-08-16 13:34编辑了帖子]
4条评分, 贡献值 +18 金钱 +2
  • 风王2012
    贡献值 10
    优秀帖
    2015-08-26 00:06
  • 风王2012
    金钱 +1
    没有多余贡献值评分权限,翻译10报以上应该再加10贡献
    2015-08-25 22:21
  • 风王2012
    金钱 +1
    没有多余贡献值评分权限,翻译10报以上应该再加10贡献
    2015-08-25 22:21
  • 风王2012
    贡献值 8
    nm即为海里
    2015-08-21 16:14
回眸过去,守望现在,眺望未来!
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风王2012
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发布于:2015-08-16 10:50
16W预报理由翻译帖 #09 08月16日11时 (081603Z)
1.供专业气象人员分析
2.六小时总结与分析:
热带风暴16W天鹅,位于提尼安岛偏西方向约53海里的地区,过去六小时以8节的速度向西北方向移动。最近的动态多频卫星图像(MSI)描绘了一个紧密的弧形对流紧紧卷入加强的底层环流中心。这种合并(指前文对流卷入LLCC)在关岛的雷达图像中非常明显,我们对当前定位的较高信心是基于关岛雷达图像中正在发展的中心和移动轨迹。当前强度估计为55节是基于PGTW和RJTD的T3.5的德法分析。尽管德法分析为55节,但152100Z SSMIS的微波图像揭示了较强的对流结构,这表明将强度定为60节略高的强度是可行的。然而,我们仍然将强度定在55节,并将在下次警报发布时再次评估。上层环流分析揭示了天鹅现在所处海域的环境有所改善,风切也较小,且天鹅拥有双流出通道,这更加证明了最近天鹅增强的大体趋势。热带风暴天鹅现在正沿着其北部的副热带高压南部稳定移动中。
3.预报理由
A.预报理由无明显改变
B.未来72小时内,在副热带高压的引导之下,天鹅将继续维持西北西方向的路径。JTWC对当前预报的高信心是基于除了NAVGEM和GFDN之外,所有的动态预报模型都保持着紧密的联系。未来48小时内,我们对强度的预测已经调整,预测其将猛速加强。我们如此预测是基于几个关键因子:底层环流中心正在巩固;双流出通道有所改善;较高的RI预测指数。而且HWRF和COAMPS-TC两个模型均预见了天鹅的猛速加强。
C.在延伸预报期内,由于东北垂直风切的加强和海洋潜热的下降,天鹅将逐渐减弱。由于数值预报大致一致,因而我们对预测的信心高。

图片:wp1615.gif


图片:16W_152332sams.jpg


WDPN31 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 16W (GONI) WARNING NR
09//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 53 NM WEST
OF TINIAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED
TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING (TCB). THIS CONSOLIDATION IS EVIDENT IN GUAM
RADAR IMAGERY, WHICH CONTINUES TO SHOW A DEVELOPING EYE LENDING GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND RECENT TRACK MOTION. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 FROM RJTD AND PGTW. DESPITE THE STATIC
DVORAK ESTIMATES, A 152100Z SSMIS REVEALS IMPROVED STRUCTURE BANDING
STRUCTURE, WHICH SUGGESTS THAT A SLIGHTLY HIGHER INTENSITY OF 60
KNOTS IS FEASIBLE, HOWEVER, WILL HOLD AT 55 KNOTS FOR NOW AND RE-
EVALUATE AT THE NEXT WARNING CYCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN
IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VWS AND DUAL OUTFLOW, WHICH IS
FUELING THE RECENT INTENSIFICATION TREND. TS 16W IS TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP STR ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 16W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU
72 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DOMINANT STR. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM AND GFDN, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO BETTER INDICATE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION (RI) THROUGH TAU 48. THIS RI FORECAST IS BASED ON A
NUMBER OF KEY FACTORS: THE LLCC IS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING; OUTFLOW
HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW; HIGH SHIPS RI
VALUES; AND RI IS FORECASTED IN BOTH THE HWRF AND COAMPS-TC MODELS.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TS 16W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY VWS AND
LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT (AGAIN, WITH THE EXCETION OF THE NAVGEM AND GFDN
OUTLIERS), THEREFORE, THERE IS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
[风王2012于2015-08-16 20:29编辑了帖子]
5条评分, 贡献值 +13 金钱 0.0
  • 风王2012
    贡献值 5
    翻译7贴
    2015-08-25 22:18
  • 风王2012
    贡献值 8
    -
    2015-08-21 16:15
  • 风王2012
    金钱 0.0
    已经修改,谢谢。
    2015-08-16 20:29
  • 新细明体
    金钱 0.0
    SHIPS RI Value是指其預測中的RI指數(由0%至100%)
    2015-08-16 11:39
  • 新细明体
    金钱 0.0
    SHIPS是一種強度預測的數值,並不是指船舶實測
    2015-08-16 11:38
DK
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luhang
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发布于:2015-08-16 18:35
16W预报理由翻译帖 #10 08月16日17时 (081609Z)
1. 供气象学者使用。
2. 过去6小时的总结与分析。
热带风暴(TS)16W(天鹅),目前位于Andersen Afb( 安德森空军基地 )西北方约96 nm的西北太平洋海面上。过去六小时系统以6节的速度向西偏北方向移动。MSI( 动态多频卫星图像 )显示对流云带紧紧缠绕LLCC成为系统中心。160446Z的SSMI图像以及关岛的雷达显示最强的对流和相关的雨带集中在系统的南侧。(JTWC)对当前的定位有良好的信心。强度略有上修60节是基于RJTD的德法分析认为结构有所好转。高层分析显示( 天鹅 )位于低垂直风切变区,且拥有双流出通道。TS 16W沿着副热带高压沿南侧前进
3。预测推理。
A. 预报理由没有改变。
B. 未来72小时,TS 16W将继续向西偏北方向移动,由于有利的结构调整的环境条件,包括低垂直风切变和( 较高的 )OHC,期待该系统继续的爆发性增强,48小时后达到120节的巅峰。预计系统将维持120节的强度直到OHC值开始降低,但流出状况仍然尚可。
C.在延伸时段预报,TS天鹅将会逐步遇到增强的垂直风切变和低OHC。120小时后,该系统将开始沿减弱的副热带高压向北转向。因为我们的预报依旧与数值模式保持紧密共识,所以我们的预报可信度为高。



WDPN31 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 16W (GONI) WARNING NR
10//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 96 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A WELL
CONSOLIDATED LLCC WITH GOOD BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE
CENTER. A 160446Z SSMI IMAGE, AS WELL AS RADAR FROM GUAM, SHOWS THE
DEEPEST CONVECTION, AND ASSOCIATED RAIN, CONCENTRATED IN THE
SOUTHERN SECTION OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE
ABOVE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED SLIGHTLY
TO 60 KNOTS BASED ON AN INCREASE IN DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM RJTD AND
OVERALL IMPROVEMENT IN STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW
VWS AND DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS. TS 16W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 16W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU
72 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. DUE TO FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, TO INCLUDE LOW VWS AND GOOD OHC, EXPECT
THE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY THOUGH TAU 48 WITH A
PEAK OF 120 KNOTS. EXPECT THIS INTENSITY TO MAINTAIN THOUGH TAU 120
AS THE OHC VALUES BEGIN TO WANE BUT OUTFLOW CONDITIONS REMAIN
FAVORABLE.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TS GONI IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY VWS AND
LOWER OHC. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO TRACK SLIGHTLY POLEWARD THOUGH
TAU 120 AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND THE STR. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THUS LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
[luhang于2015-08-16 21:11编辑了帖子]
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回眸过去,守望现在,眺望未来!
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颱風巨爵
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发布于:2015-08-17 03:34
16W預報理由翻譯帖 #11 — 八月十六日廿三時(081615Z)
1. 供氣象學家使用
2. 六小時總結與分析:
颱風16W(天鵝)集結在安德森空軍基地之西北約140海哩,過去六小時以7節向西北移動。動態色調強化紅外線衛星圖像顯示,緊密雲帶正捲入一個已經整合良好的低層環流中心。一幅下午七時三十六分(161136Z)的METOP-A衛星圖像顯示最深厚的對流集中在風暴的南部,而深厚雲帶捲入低層環流中心,以西則尤為明顯。系統現時的位置是基於上述的圖像,這令我們信心一般。由於PGTW提升德沃夏克估值,系統的強度亦被稍為調升至65節。高空分析揭示了低垂直風切變和雙向流出通道。颱風16W正沿著深厚的副熱帶高壓脊南緣移動。
3. 預報理由
A. 預報理由對比上次沒有改變
B. 颱風16W在72小時後會在副熱帶高壓脊引導下繼續朝西北偏西移動。由於環境因素良好,如低垂直風切變、良好海洋潛熱和極向流出,預期系統在72小時後持續迅速增強,達到125節的巔峰強度。預報模式在中期預報時段就系統路徑的分散和速度擁有緊密共識。
C. 在預報延伸時段,由於遇到高空東北垂直風切變上升,預測系統將會逐漸減弱。120小時後,當系統開始繞過副熱帶高壓脊,其將開始採取稍為偏北的路徑移動。由於持續預報模式繼續有頗緊密的共識,聯合颱風警報中心表示對路徑預測有高度信心。

图片:wp1615.gif

图片:16W_161132sair.jpg


WDPN31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 16W (GONI) WARNING NR 11//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 16W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM NORTHWEST OF
ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TIGHT
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL CONSOLIDATED LLCC. A 161136Z METOP-A
IMAGE SHOWS THE DEEPEST CONVECTION CONCENTRATED IN THE SOUTHERN
SECTION OF THE SYSTEM WITH DEEP BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC,
SPECIFICALLY ON THE WESTERN SIDE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
THE ABOVE IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN
RAISED SLIGHTLY TO 65 KNOTS BASED ON AN INCREASE IN DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW VWS AND DUAL OUTFLOW
CHANNELS. TY 16W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEEP STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 16W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU
72 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. DUE TO FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, INCLUDING LOW VWS, GOOD OHC AND GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY
THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A PEAK OF 125 KNOTS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO SPREAD AND SPEED OF THE SYSTEMS TRACK
THOUGH THE MID-RANGE FORECAST.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TY GONI IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY VWS.
THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO TRACK SLIGHTLY POLEWARD THOUGH TAU 120 AS
IT BEGINS TO ROUND THE STR. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY
TIGHT AGREEMENT, THUS LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST.//
NNNN
[颱風巨爵于2015-08-17 21:47编辑了帖子]
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  • 风王2012
    贡献值 8
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    2015-08-21 16:15
Society is dead, long live society!
是誰令青山也變,變了俗氣的嘴臉?又是誰令碧海也變,變作濁流滔天?
【特輯】 淺談JTWC和預報理由
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luhang
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发布于:2015-08-17 07:32
16W预报理由翻译帖 #12 08月17日05时 (081621Z)
1. 对于气象学家。
2. 6小时总结与分析。
台风(TY)16W(天鹅),目前位于( 北马里亚那群岛的 )安纳塔汉岛北偏西约175 NM的西北太平洋洋面上,过去6小时的移速为9节。增强红外卫星图动画显示底层环流中心(LLCC)快速整合并形成一个直径10NM的眼。151719Z SSMI 85.5GHz图像显示一个小眼墙与紧密的螺旋雨带缠绕为中心。(JTWC)对当前定位有良好的信心。水汽动画图像显示出优良的流出,特别是极向流出更佳,系统北侧增强。TY天鹅正在快速增强(RI),过去24小时增强了25节以上,从55节到15 / 18z的 CI值对应80节。德法的强度估计,所有分析机构都分析出T4.5(77节)。TY 16W将继续沿着副热带高压南侧向西移动。
3. 预报理由。
A. 预报理由没有变化。
B. 72小时内,TY 16W将继续沿副热带高压向西偏北方向移动,由于结构转好及一系列的有利条件: 包括低垂直风切变,高海温和优良的流出的影响下,TY 16W预计将继续快速增强,并在48小时后达到130节的巅峰。( 72小时内 )我们的预报依旧与数值模式保持紧密共识,所以我们对我们的预报信心度高。
C.在延展期内,副热带高压的变化开始出现不确定性,台风路径也将变得扑朔迷离,但整体北分量加大。当前数值预测一个非常强的中纬度大槽将影响中国东北,并带来一系列不确定因素,如另副热带高压减弱。此外,TY 17W将会沿着副热带高压继续向北影响日本本州岛。因此,TY 16W很可能陷入鞍场,移速缓慢甚至停滞地在台湾附近徘徊。此外,斜压区仍位于系统西侧,所以天鹅北转后暂时不会变性为温带气旋。因此,在JTWC预测的路径仍有较高的不确定性。

WDPN31 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 16W (GONI) WARNING NR 12//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
?? TYPHOON (TY) 16W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM WEST OF
ANATAHAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A 10-
NM EYE. A 151719Z SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A SMALL EYEWALL WITH
TIGHTLY-CURVED SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THERE IS
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY DEPICTS EXCELLENT OUTFLOW, ESPECIALLY POLEWARD OUTFLOW WHICH
IS ENHANCED BY THE TUTT POSITIONED TO THE NORTH. TY GONI IS
UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI), INCREASING 25 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS FROM 55 KNOTS AT 15/18Z TO THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 80
KNOTS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES HAVE JUMPED TO
T4.5 (77 KNOTS). TY 16W CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
?? A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
?? B. TY 16W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. DUE TO THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, INCLUDING LOW VWS, WARM SST AND
EXCELLENT OUTFLOW, TY 16W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY
RAPIDLY THROUGH TAU 48 WITH A PEAK OF 130 KNOTS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN TIGHT AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THE FORECAST TRACK WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
?? C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, MODEL GUIDANCE FANS OUT WITH
INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH TRACK SPEEDS AND THE TIMING OF THE
POLEWARD TURN. CURRENT NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES AN EXTREMELY
COMPLEX SYNOPTIC SITUATION AS A DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGS INTO NORTHEASTERN CHINA, WEAKENING THE STR NORTH OF TY 16W.
ADDITIONALLY, TY 17W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD SOUTH OF
HONSHU UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO ITS NORTH.
CONSEQUENTLY, TY 16W IS LIKELY TO BECOME EMBEDDED IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT AND EXHIBIT SLOW AND POSSIBLY EVEN QUASI-STATIONARY
MOTION NEAR TAIWAN. FURTHERMORE, THERE IS NO EVIDENCE THAT THE
TROUGH WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO INDUCE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS WELL NORTH OF 16W IN THE WEST SEA. FOR
THIS REASON, THERE IS HIGH OVERALL UNCERTAINTY IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK.//
NNNN
[luhang于2015-08-17 09:33编辑了帖子]
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  • 风王2012
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    2015-08-21 16:16
回眸过去,守望现在,眺望未来!
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luhang
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发布于:2015-08-17 11:17
16W预报理由翻译帖 #13 08月17日11时 (081703Z)
JTWC的Prognostic Reasoning后半部分有问题——内容与上一报完全相同,所以不翻译,请见谅
1. 供气象学者使用。
2. 近6小时的总结与分析。
台风(TY)16W(天鹅),目前位于安纳塔汉岛西偏北约230NM的西北太平洋洋面上,过去六个小时的移速为11节。动态多光谱卫星图像显示出快速整合的低层环流中心(LLCC)与一个7NM的针眼。一个152222Z SSMIS 91GHZ图像显示一个小眼墙与紧密的螺旋雨带缠绕为中心。(JTWC)对当前的定位有良好的信心。水汽动画图像显示出优良的流出,尤其是TUTT带来的极向流出。TY天鹅仍在快速加强(RI),过去24小时从55节增强至115节,增强约60节。德法强度估计范围从KENS 在16日2030Z的T5.5(102节)到PGTW在16日2330Z的T6.5(127节)。保守地评价在115节的基础上平均这些分析结果,强度可能会在下一报进一步上修。TY 16W将继续沿着副热带高压南侧向西移动。

1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 16W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM WEST OF
ANATAHAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A 7-
NM PINHOLE EYE. A 152222Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A SMALL EYEWALL
WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THERE
IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY DEPICTS EXCELLENT OUTFLOW, ESPECIALLY POLEWARD OUTFLOW
WHICH IS ENHANCED BY THE TUTT POSITIONED TO THE NORTH. TY GONI IS
UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI), INCREASING APPROXIMATELY 60
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS FROM 55 KNOTS AT 16/00Z TO THE CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM THE
KNES T5.5 (102 KNOTS) ESTIMATE AT 16/2030Z TO THE PGTW T6.5 (127
KNOTS) ESTIMATE AT 16/2330Z. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
CONSERVATIVELY ASSESSED AT 115 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF THESE
TWO ESTIMATES; THE INTENSITY WILL LIKELY BE INCREASED FURTHER AT
THE NEXT WARNING CYCLE. TY 16W CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP STR.
[luhang于2015-08-17 21:57编辑了帖子]
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  • 风王2012
    贡献值 3
    因故一半翻译
    2015-08-21 16:16
回眸过去,守望现在,眺望未来!
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颱風巨爵
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发布于:2015-08-17 21:50
16W預報理由翻譯帖 #14 — 八月十七日十七時(081709Z)
1. 供氣象學家使用
2. 六小時總結與分析:
颱風16W(天鵝)集結在安德森空軍基地之西北約322海哩,過去六小時以13節向西北偏西移動。動態多頻衛星圖像(MSI)顯示出一個已迅速整合的低層環流中心及其6海哩闊的針眼。一幅下午二時四十一分(170641Z)的全球降水測量衛星圖像(Global Precipitation Measurement - GPM)顯示一道細小眼牆與其一道明顯溝壑,以及緊密的螺旋雲帶捲入中心。基於那個細小的風眼,我們對颱風現時的位置非常有信心。颱風天鵝正迅速增強,她的強度在過去24小時上升了接近60節,而基於所有匯報機構的德沃夏克強度估值,現估計達到115節。高空分析揭示了非常低(少於10節)的垂直風切變和強烈雙向流出通道。颱風16W繼續沿深厚的副熱帶高壓脊南緣移動。
3. 預報理由
A. 預報理由對比上次沒有改變
B. 颱風16W在未來72小時會在副熱帶高壓脊引導下繼續朝西北偏西移動。由於環境因素良好,如低垂直風切變、温暖的海表温度和優越的流出,預期颱風16W在未來24小時持續迅速增強,達到130節的巔峰強度。然而,一道靠近中的西風槽帶來的下沉氣流和垂直風切變上升,將導致系統強度於48小時前後稍為下跌。其後,由於短波槽通過令極向流出改善,系統將重新增強至達140節的第二巔峰強度。
C. 在預報延伸時段,預報模式對系統的速度和時間的分歧擴大。中緯度西風槽通過、位於日本四國的小型副熱帶高壓脊和中國東部的深厚高壓區將令駛流形勢變得更加複雜。颱風16W的細小體積,令其難以向北突破任何由帶狀西風槽通過造成的(少量)高壓脊弱點。因此,在背景引導氣流微弱的情況下(包括颱風17W在四國副熱帶高壓脊東緣移動,鞏固了(南北向)配置所造成的影響),預料颱風天鵝會減速並緩慢轉向北漂。預料系統的強度於延伸預報中會受地形影響,有所下降。由於預報延伸時段的駛流環境錯縱複雜,聯合颱風警報中心表示路徑預測有高度不確定性。

图片:79_98662_97ea07b1e6cce62.gif


图片:20150817.0641.gpm.x.rain.16WGONI.115kts-937mb-170N-1405E.57pc.jpg


WDPN31 PGTW 170900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 16W (GONI) WARNING NR 14//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
  TYPHOON (TY) 16W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 322 NM NORTHWEST
OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED LLCC WITH
A 6 NM PINHOLE EYE. A 170641Z GPM IMAGE SHOWS A SMALL EYEWALL WITH A
SIGNIFICANT MOAT REGION AND TIGHTLY-CURVED SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING
INTO THE CENTER. THERE IS VERY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION
BASED ON THE SMALL EYE. TY GONI IS UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION,
INCREASING NEARLY 60 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH AN ASSESSED
CURRENT INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS VERY LOW (LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS) VWS AND VIGOROUS DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS. TY 16W
CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
  A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
  B. TY 16W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, INCLUDING LOW VWS, WARM SST AND EXCELLENT
OUTFLOW, TY 16W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY THROUGH
TAU 24 WITH A PEAK OF 130 KNOTS. HOWEVER, DUE TO INCREASED VWS,
EXPECT A SLIGHT DIP IN INTENSITY AROUND TAU 48 DUE TO AN APPROACHING
TROUGH CAUSING SOME SUBSIDENCE OVER THE SYSTEM. BEYOND TAU 48, THE
SYSTEM WILL RE-INTENSIFY TO A SECOND PEAK OF 140 KNOTS DUE TO
IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CAUSED BY THE PASSING OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH.
  C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, MODEL GUIDANCE WIDENS WITH REGARD TO
BOTH SPEED AND TIMING. THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE
COMPLICATED WITH THE PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND A SMALL STR
ANCHORED OVER SHIKOKU AND A DEEP HIGH OVER EASTERN CHINA. THE SMALL
SIZE OF TY 16W WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO FORCE POLEARD THOUGH ANY
(MARGINAL) BREAK IN THE RIDGE DUE TO THE PASSING ZONAL TROUGH. AS
SUCH, TY GONI IS EXPECTED TO SLOW ITS TRACK AND SLOWLY TURN POLEWARD
DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, TO INCLUDE SOME INFLUENCE OF
TY 17W TRACKING ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SHIKOKU STR,
REINFORCING THE RIDGES POSITION. INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. BECAUSE OF THE
COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, THERE IS HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
[颱風巨爵于2015-08-20 20:10编辑了帖子]
1条评分, 贡献值 +9
  • 风王2012
    贡献值 9
    优秀帖
    2015-08-21 16:16
Society is dead, long live society!
是誰令青山也變,變了俗氣的嘴臉?又是誰令碧海也變,變作濁流滔天?
【特輯】 淺談JTWC和預報理由
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