1121578214A
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2013-07-26
  • 最后登录2018-08-16
  • 粉丝55
  • 关注20
  • 发帖数307
  • 来自
阅读:17121回复:112

[AL]巴哈马群岛东北四级飓风“华金”(11L.Joaquin) - 实测气压933mb,严重影响巴哈马 - MAX:135kt

楼主#
更多 发布于:2015-09-26 08:05
AL, 98, 2015092600,   , BEST,   0, 245N,  685W,  20, 1011, DB,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1012,   90,  70,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 034, SPAWNINVEST, al712015 to al982015,

Disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms over the western
Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles south-southwest of Bermuda are
associated with an upper-level low and a surface trough.
Development, if any, of this system is expected to be slow to occur
while it drifts toward the north.  Upper-level winds are forecast to
become unfavorable for development after the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

图片:two_atl_2d2.png

[iam最小值于2015-10-09 12:46编辑了帖子]
4条评分, 威望 +18 金钱 +3
喜欢0 评分4
luhang
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2014-08-08
  • 最后登录2018-08-16
  • 粉丝86
  • 关注63
  • 发帖数2084
  • 来自
1楼#
发布于:2015-09-27 09:02
暖帖
2. Satellite imagery indicates that a weak area of surface low pressure
has formed about 450 miles south-southwest of Bermuda, and the
associated shower and thunderstorm activity has increased since
yesterday. Some additional gradual development of this system is
possible during the next couple of days while it moves toward the
north-northwest or northwest at 5 to 10 mph. After that time,
development is not expected due to unfavorable upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

图片:two_atl_2d2.png

回眸过去,守望现在,眺望未来!
2014...2015...2016...2017...2018......
又是新的一年,感谢论坛,也感谢我在论坛的时光
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
wangruizhi
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2012-06-21
  • 最后登录2017-02-04
  • 粉丝190
  • 关注124
  • 发帖数4690
  • 来自
2楼#
发布于:2015-09-27 20:36
2. Showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization in
association with an area of low pressure located about 425 miles
south-southwest of Bermuda.  Some additional development of this
system is possible and this system could become a tropical
depression during the next day or so while it moves toward
the northwest at 5 to 10 mph. After that time, development is not
expected due to unfavorable upper-level winds. For additional
information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

图片:two_atl_2d2.png

回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
iam最小值
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2011-07-16
  • 最后登录2018-08-17
  • 粉丝237
  • 关注25
  • 发帖数12979
  • 来自
3楼#
发布于:2015-09-28 07:41
Showers and thunderstorms have become better organized since
yesterday in association with an elongated area of low pressure
located about midway between the central Bahamas and Bermuda.
Additional slow development of this system is likely during the next
day or two while it moves toward the northwest at 5 to 10 mph. After
that time, development is not expected due to unfavorable
upper-level winds. For more information on this system, see High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

图片:two_atl_2d2.png

回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
拉姆爱推销
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2013-11-30
  • 最后登录2018-08-16
  • 粉丝140
  • 关注61
  • 发帖数4346
  • 来自
4楼#
发布于:2015-09-28 12:28
升格11L,不会命名

图片:025854W5_NL_sm.gif

图片:20150927.2045.goes-13.vis.1km.98L.INVEST.30kts.1008mb.27.3N.69W.100pc.jpg


 
WTNT41 KNHC 280239
TCDAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 27 2015

Late-afternoon visible satellite imagery indicates that the
circulation of the low pressure area located midway between the
Bahamas and Bermuda has become well defined.  Since the low has
already had persistent and organized deep convection, the system is
being declared a tropical depression.  A 2312 UTC SSMI/S overpass
indicated that the center of the depression has become at least
partially exposed to the northwest of a large convective mass due to
moderate northwesterly shear.  The initial wind speed is set to 30
kt, based on a T2.0/30 kt classification from TAFB.  The depression
is expected to be blasted by strong north-northwesterly or northerly
winds associated with the tail of an upper-level trough over the
central Atlantic beginning on Monday.  In fact, global models show
the shear being sufficiently strong enough to result in the cyclone
either becoming a remnant low or dissipating within a few days.  The
intensity forecast is below the multi-model consensus through the
forecast period, closest to the HWRF solution.

A low- to mid- level ridge north and northeast of the cyclone is
steering the lower half of the depression's circulation
northwestward while increasing northwesterly winds aloft are
opposing this motion.  The net deep-layer mean flow is therefore
providing for only a slow northwestward motion of 315/02 kt, a
rather uncertain estimate considering the scatter of recent fixes.
This synoptic pattern is expected to persist for the next couple of
days, resulting in a the cyclone's drifting west-northwestward or
northwestward.  The low- to mid-level ridge is forecast to shift
eastward in 2-3 days as a trough reaches the eastern seaboard of the
United States, and the increasingly shallow system should turn
northwestward and north-northwestward at a faster forward speed if
it still exists.  The track forecast is close to a blend of the GFS
and ECMWF model solutions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0300Z 27.5N  68.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  28/1200Z 27.7N  69.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  29/0000Z 27.9N  69.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  29/1200Z 28.2N  70.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  30/0000Z 28.8N  70.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  01/0000Z 31.0N  71.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  02/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
[iam最小值于2015-09-28 12:44编辑了帖子]
你猜论坛什么时候能校准时间,什么时候能开放头像功能?
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
pk572
热带低压
热带低压
  • 注册日期2006-07-01
  • 最后登录2018-07-30
  • 粉丝10
  • 关注11
  • 发帖数370
  • 来自
5楼#
发布于:2015-09-29 11:51
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN...
...THE TENTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON...
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
直指美東北?

图片:023804W5_NL_sm.gif

[拉姆爱推销于2015-09-29 12:44编辑了帖子]
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
禾愛糖
禁止发言-干空气
禁止发言-干空气
  • 注册日期2012-11-05
  • 最后登录2018-08-16
  • 粉丝281
  • 关注120
  • 发帖数9955
  • 来自
6楼#
发布于:2015-09-29 13:11
用户被禁言,该主题自动屏蔽!
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
hei
hei
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2011-02-15
  • 最后登录2018-08-17
  • 粉丝367
  • 关注164
  • 发帖数10186
  • 来自
7楼#
发布于:2015-09-29 13:37
ECMWF這報對米國東岸威脅甚大, 尤其是Chesapeake Bay......


图片:EC1.png

3条评分, 金钱 0 威望 +2
  • hei
    金钱 0.1
    2812Z
    2015-09-29 14:47
  • hei
    金钱 0.1
    是2818Z才對
    2015-09-29 14:47
  • nasdaq
    威望 +2
    原创帖
    2015-09-29 13:44
大家無謂再欺騙自己地說出面一切正常,我想,大家是時候停一停,面對我們見到的現實。
Keep Calm and Carry On
Let’s party like it’s 1793
歡迎大家到煮酒版討論天下事
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分(3)
hei
hei
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2011-02-15
  • 最后登录2018-08-17
  • 粉丝367
  • 关注164
  • 发帖数10186
  • 来自
8楼#
发布于:2015-09-29 13:52
順道發風場

图片:WMBas87.png

大家無謂再欺騙自己地說出面一切正常,我想,大家是時候停一停,面對我們見到的現實。
Keep Calm and Carry On
Let’s party like it’s 1793
歡迎大家到煮酒版討論天下事
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
hei
hei
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2011-02-15
  • 最后登录2018-08-17
  • 粉丝367
  • 关注164
  • 发帖数10186
  • 来自
9楼#
发布于:2015-09-29 14:38
這報..............

图片:ecmwf_mslp_uv850_us_6.png


图片:ecmwf_mslp_uv850_us_7.png

[hei于2015-09-29 14:40编辑了帖子]
1条评分, 金钱 0.0
  • 格物致知
    金钱 0.0
    和温气互旋然后被甩到远海。。
    2015-09-29 19:49
大家無謂再欺騙自己地說出面一切正常,我想,大家是時候停一停,面對我們見到的現實。
Keep Calm and Carry On
Let’s party like it’s 1793
歡迎大家到煮酒版討論天下事
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分(1)
上一页
游客

返回顶部