9914dan
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2009-06-25
  • 最后登录2019-02-16
  • 粉丝150
  • 关注63
  • 发帖数2548
  • 来自
阅读:2067回复:8

[EP]TCFA - 东太平洋94E - 14.8N 121.8W - NHC:70%

楼主#
更多 发布于:2015-09-30 20:08
EP, 94, 2015093012,   , BEST,   0, 107N, 1187W,  20, 1009, DB,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1011,  120,  60,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 030, SPAWNINVEST, ep772015 to ep942015,
1. A broad area of low pressure has formed about 1000 miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
and is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the
weekend while the low drifts northward or northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

图片:two_pac_2d1.png

[拉姆爱推销于2015-10-06 09:18编辑了帖子]
2条评分, 金钱 +3 威望 +3
喜欢0 评分2
拉姆爱推销
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2013-11-30
  • 最后登录2019-02-08
  • 粉丝142
  • 关注64
  • 发帖数4346
  • 来自
1楼#
发布于:2015-10-01 09:23
Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

图片:ep942015.20151001012139.gif


WTPN21 PHNC 010230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.1N 119.6W TO 13.0N 122.8W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 010000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.5N 120.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.7N
118.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 120.0W, APPROXIMATELY 580 NM
SOUTHWEST CLARION ISLAND. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING AND WELL-
DEFINED MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING. A 012346Z GPM PASS DEPICTS DEEP
CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SIDES OF THE LLCC. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN IMPROVED ENVIRONMENT WITH 10 TO 15 KNOT
VWS OFFSET BY POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. DYNAMIC MODELS
INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTH WEST
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
020230Z.//
NNNN


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED SEP 30 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Marty, located more than 200 miles south-southeast of
Manzanillo, Mexico.

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity has become better organized since
yesterday in association with a low pressure system located about
1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.  Environmental conditions are gradually becoming more
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the next couple of days while the low moves slowly
northward or northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

Forecaster Stewart

图片:two_pac_2d1.png

[iam最小值于2015-10-01 09:51编辑了帖子]
你猜论坛什么时候能校准时间,什么时候能开放头像功能?
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
iam最小值
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2011-07-16
  • 最后登录2019-02-16
  • 粉丝240
  • 关注25
  • 发帖数13021
  • 来自
2楼#
发布于:2015-10-02 09:24
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU OCT 1 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A broad area of low pressure located about 1100 miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has become less
organized since yesterday.  However, environmental conditions are
still forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form in a few days while the low moves
slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

Forecaster Stewart
 

图片:two_pac_2d1.png


图片:20151002.0000.goes15.x.vis2km.94EINVEST.25kts-1006mb-130N-1230W.100pc.jpg


 

图片:WMBds40.png


 
对流组织比昨天减弱了不少,凌晨的风场扫描显示LLCC呈狭长的状态,NHC因此下调了评级,不过依然有可能在未来几天加强为TD。
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
327
327
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2013-12-31
  • 最后登录2019-02-16
  • 粉丝150
  • 关注68
  • 发帖数5339
  • 来自
3楼#
发布于:2015-10-02 12:00
TCFA Canceled

图片:ep942015.20151002013220.gif


WTPN21 PHNC 020130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/010221Z OCT 15//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 010230)//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPN21 PHNC 010230). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 120.0W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR
13.5N 123.3W, APPROXIMATELY 600 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST CLARION ISLAND.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A WEAKER CONSOLIDATION FORMATIVE BANDING AND MID-
LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING. A 012300Z AMSU-B PASS DEPICTS SOME DEEP
CONVECTION ON THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE LLCC WITH WEAK
WRAPPING. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT
WITH 10 TO 15 KNOTS OF VWS OFFSET BY POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. DYNAMIC MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SYSTEM, WITH IT GAINING TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH OUTSIDE OF 48
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
THE SYSTEM IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.//
NNNN
[拉姆爱推销于2015-10-02 12:02编辑了帖子]
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
拉姆爱推销
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2013-11-30
  • 最后登录2019-02-08
  • 粉丝142
  • 关注64
  • 发帖数4346
  • 来自
4楼#
发布于:2015-10-03 07:31

图片:two_pac_2d1.png


Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located about 1200 miles southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula have become less organized since
yesterday.  Environmental conditions are still forecast to be
somewhat conducive, so gradual development is possible during the
next few days while the systems moves little.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent
你猜论坛什么时候能校准时间,什么时候能开放头像功能?
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
iam最小值
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2011-07-16
  • 最后登录2019-02-16
  • 粉丝240
  • 关注25
  • 发帖数13021
  • 来自
5楼#
发布于:2015-10-04 10:11
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT OCT 3 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A broad and elongated area of low pressure located about 1050 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
While some gradual development is possible, environmental conditions
are expected to become less favorable during the next few days while
this system moves northeastward at about 5 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

图片:two_pac_2d1.png

回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
iam最小值
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2011-07-16
  • 最后登录2019-02-16
  • 粉丝240
  • 关注25
  • 发帖数13021
  • 来自
6楼#
发布于:2015-10-05 09:13
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN OCT 4 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a broad and elongated area of low pressure located about 1000 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
Environmental conditions are expected to become less favorable
during the next day or two, and significant development of this
disturbance appears unlikely while it moves north-northeastward
and then northward 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Forecaster Berg

图片:two_pac_2d1.png

回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
拉姆爱推销
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2013-11-30
  • 最后登录2019-02-08
  • 粉丝142
  • 关注64
  • 发帖数4346
  • 来自
7楼#
发布于:2015-10-05 13:35

图片:two_pac_2d1.png


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 050511
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SUN OCT 4 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad and elongated area of low pressure located about 950 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to become less favorable
during the next day or two, and significant development of this
disturbance appears unlikely while it moves north-northeastward
and then northward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Brown
你猜论坛什么时候能校准时间,什么时候能开放头像功能?
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
iam最小值
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2011-07-16
  • 最后登录2019-02-16
  • 粉丝240
  • 关注25
  • 发帖数13021
  • 来自
8楼#
发布于:2015-10-06 00:03
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON OCT 5 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A broad and elongated area of low pressure located about 900 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
is producing limited shower activity.  Environmental conditions are
expected to become less favorable during the next couple of days,
and development of this system is not expected while it moves north-
northeastward and then northward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

Forecaster Kimberlain

图片:two_pac_2d1.png


 
FNMOC上已经看不到此扰动,NHC评级取消后就移档。
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
游客

返回顶部