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[SH(15-16)]2015-2016年度斐济责任区编号系统讨论帖

楼主#
更多 发布于:2015-10-07 14:36
说明:
1、本帖专门用于收集和讨论斐济气象部门(FMS)对其责任区内编号的扰动,当NRL编号或者FMS发“扰动报告”(Disturbance Advisory)时可新开主题帖。
2、本帖每年度一帖,开帖时间一般为10月初,如果FMS编扰动早于此时间则以编号时间为开帖时间(FMS官方认定的风季时间为11月1日至次年4月30日)。任何会员均可开帖,首楼附上本说明即可,注意:本帖开帖不加分
3、帖子时效为当年开帖~次年5月31日,到期后如无特殊情况则移入档案版。
4、FMS新编扰动后,在本帖下发帖说明,取最早的会员给予威望3、金钱3的奖励。建议会员发帖后附上合适的云图并进行适当的说明或标注,方便其他会员更直观地浏览
5、一些有用的网址及信息:
FMS官网:http://www.met.gov.fj/
FMS发编号扰动的页面:http://www.met.gov.fj/current_warnings.php,即官网左边有个Current Warnings点进去。此页面最右边一栏最下面的Tropical Disturbance Summary就能看到当前编号的扰动。
一个南半球云图及分析图汇集的网址,可用来发编号时的云图(自己定位):
http://www.cyclonextreme.com/cyclonecaledonie.htm
NOAA的南半球云图:http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/


FMS责任区范围:


自动更新云图:
澳大利亚附近


南太平洋(偶尔有错误陆地边界乱入)
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iam最小值
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1楼#
发布于:2015-11-06 22:53
In summary, based on the historical tropical cyclone data, the predictions for the upcoming 2015/16 tropical cyclone season are as follows:
 
    Above Average TC occurrence  in RSMC Nadi AoR  in  the 2015/16 season  is predicted with high confidence;
 
    Ten  to  fourteen  (10  to  14)  TC’s  are  expected  to  occur  in  the RSMC Nadi  AoR with  4  to  8  are expected to reach category 3 and 3 to 7 of these may reach category 4 or 5 status;

    Highly  Elevated  TC  risk  anticipated  for  Solomon  Islands,  Wallis  &  Futuna,  Tokelau,  Samoa, Northern Cook Islands and French Polynesia;
 
    Elevated TC risk expected for Vanuatu, Fiji, Niue and Southern Cook Islands;
 
    Near normal TC activity likely for New Caledonia, Tuvalu and Tonga;
 
    There is highly elevated risk of severe TC’s for Northern Cook Islands and French Polynesia;
 
    Elevated  risk of severe TC’s  for Vanuatu, Tuvalu, Fiji, Wallis & Futuna, Tokelau, Samoa, Tonga, Niue and Southern Cook Islands;

    Normal risk for severe TC’s in the Solomon Islands and New Caledonia regions;
 
    For Fiji, 2 to 3  tropical cyclones could pass through the Fiji waters this season, with 1 expected to reach category three (3) or above;
 
    High probability for TC’s to approach Fiji from the northern and eastern quadrants;
 
    Active cloud and rain bands associated with TC’s may occasionally affect Fiji with marked rainfall and potentially cause flooding, including sea flooding and flooding of low‐lying coastal areas;
 
    Non TC’s or Tropical Depressions have, and can still cause  loss of  lives and severe damages  to property.  
 
RSMC Nadi已经于前段时间发布了FMS责任区的今年度风季展望,这里贴一下总结,详细内容可以看官网或者下载附件。总的说来就是今年受到厄尔尼诺的影响,FMS预计责任区内的气旋总数(10-14个)会超过气候平均值,而且对此有高度信心,达到澳式C3及以上级别的气旋可能有4-8个。今年的气旋位置可能比较偏东,日界线以东的国家(岛屿)今年受到气旋侵袭的机率显著增加。
 
RSMC_Nadi_Tropical_Cyclone_Outlook_2015_16.pdf
[iam最小值于2015-11-06 22:55编辑了帖子]
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拉姆爱推销
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2楼#
发布于:2015-11-24 06:47
热带扰动03F
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Nov 23/2243 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD03F [1006HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 14.0S 179.7W AT
232100UTC. SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR/VIS IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIOS. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT PAST 12 HOURS. ORGANISATION HAS
SLIGHTLY IMPROVED PAST 24 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH
AND JUST SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 500 HPA.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND KEEP IT SLOW MOVING WITH
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS IS LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

图片:360反馈意见截图16190824486252.png

图片:SHGMSIR.jpg

[拉姆爱推销于2015-11-24 12:29编辑了帖子]
4条评分, 金钱 +6 威望 +6
你猜论坛什么时候能校准时间,什么时候能开放头像功能?
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meow
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3楼#
发布于:2015-11-29 09:47
厄尔尼诺年平均形成8.7个热带气旋,正常平均7.3,可见今年度预测明显偏多。史上最活跃风季在1997–98年度达16个热带气旋,强热带气旋最多年度在1982–83年度达10个,都是在强厄尔尼诺年。

上年度本区域只有5个热带气旋形成,因此本年度若符合预测(10到14个)将会让人感受显著区别,应该12月上旬以后还会有一系列系统出台。
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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meow
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4楼#
发布于:2016-01-11 10:10
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 08F CENTRE [1006HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 8.7S
157.2W AT 102100UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR/VIS
IMAGERY AND PERIPHIRAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.

CONVECTION HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. ORGANISATION
REMAINS POOR. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A MODERATE TO HIGH
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 700HPA. SST
AROUND 29 TO 30 DEGREES CELCIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVE IT SOUTHWARDS
WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT TO 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

图片:20160111_0152_goes15_ir_x_shem_x.jpg

[iam最小值于2016-01-11 12:53编辑了帖子]
2条评分, 金钱 +3 威望 +3
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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iam最小值
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5楼#
发布于:2016-01-12 11:33
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 112301 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 08F CENTRE [1006HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 11.3S
158.4W AT 112100UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR/VIS
IMAGERY AND PERIPHIRAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT. ORGANISATION POOR. SYSTEM LIES UNDER
AN UPPER RIDGE IN A MODERATE TO HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 700HPA. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVE IT SOUTHWARDS
WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT TO 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

图片:xxirg10sbbm.jpg


 

图片:ps2png-atls19-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-_t30lZ.png

图片:ps2png-atls00-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-d96uwv.png


 
160W附近的热带气旋,EC最近几报调强了,看样子就是08F,等待NRL编号。
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luhang
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6楼#
发布于:2016-01-12 21:22
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 08F CENTRE [1006HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 09.3S
159.4W AT 120900UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHIRAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT. ORGANISATION POOR. SYSTEM LIES UNDER
AN UPPER RIDGE IN A MODERATE TO HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 700HPA. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVE IT SOUTHWARDS
WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT TO 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

NRL编的98P貌似(yi ding)不是这只
[luhang于2016-01-12 21:29编辑了帖子]
回眸过去,守望现在,眺望未来!
2014...2015...2016...2017...2018......
又是新的一年,感谢论坛,也感谢我在论坛的时光
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刚打酱油回来
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7楼#
发布于:2016-01-13 04:27
似乎都不是98P
FQPS01 NFFN 112100
MARINE WEATHER BULLETIN FOR ISLANDS AREA
EQUATOR TO 25S BETWEEN 160E AND 120W.
ISSUED BY FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE Jan 112000 UTC.

PART 1 : WARNING STORM WARNING 051  ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 111925
UTC.

REFER TO STORM WARNING 111 ISSUED BY WELLINGTON ON TC ULA.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 050.

PARTS 2 AND 3 : SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST VALID UNTIL Jan 121800 UTC.

LOW L [1006] ANALYSED NEAR 11.0S 180.0 AT 111800UTC SLOW MOVING.
POSITION POOR.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD08F [1006HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 11.6S 158.0W AT
111800UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR.
人民的名义
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梦幻粉影
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8楼#
发布于:2016-02-16 21:47
温斯顿正在抬头
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刚打酱油回来
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9楼#
发布于:2016-03-20 08:36
WWPS21 NFFN 200000
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 200014 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD13F CENTRE [1000HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 18.2S
161.6E AT 192300 UTC. TD13F MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.


似乎是90P
[刚打酱油回来于2016-03-20 08:41编辑了帖子]
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