拉姆爱推销
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[WP]南鸟岛近海26W - JMA一度发布GW,22日18Z判定转温未获命名

楼主#
更多 发布于:2015-10-19 13:01
94W INVEST 151019 0000 14.2N 165.7E WPAC 15 1010

图片:20151019_0420_himawari-8_vis_94W_INVEST_15kts_1010mb_14_2N_165_7E_100pc.jpg

[拉姆爱推销于2015-10-24 09:21编辑了帖子]
2条评分, 金钱 +5 威望 +5
  • Luigi728
    威望 +5
    熱帶擾動94W
    2015-10-19 13:05
  • Luigi728
    金钱 +5
    熱帶擾動94W
    2015-10-19 13:05
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菜鸟一个菜鸟一个
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simontsui
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1楼#
发布于:2015-10-19 13:18
是否由93w分裂出來?
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samuel3106
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2楼#
发布于:2015-10-19 13:22
simontsui锛毷欠裼93w分裂出來?鍥炲埌鍘熷笘
不是,兩者獨立發展,亦有獨立渦度,而且都泛紅

图片:wgmsvor.gif

[拉姆爱推销于2015-10-19 13:24编辑了帖子]
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siuyipchi
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3楼#
发布于:2015-10-20 01:40
和其他三個一樣 (24w, 25w, 93w), 先偏西北一段又東北折返.....
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t02436
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4楼#
发布于:2015-10-20 10:27
JMA:TD
WWJP25 RJTD 200000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 200000.
WARNING VALID 210000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 17N 164E WNW SLOWLY.

图片:JMA_20151020_00Z..png


图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif

[iam最小值于2015-10-20 12:55编辑了帖子]
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拉姆爱推销
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5楼#
发布于:2015-10-20 13:15
LOW

图片:abpwsair.jpg


(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 17.6N 163.1E,
APPROXIMATELY 220 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LLCC WITH
ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. A
192256Z METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE INDICATES BROAD, SHALLOW BANDING
WRAPPING INTO AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH WEAK BANDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT. A 191931Z WINDSAT IMAGE INDICATES A DEFINED CIRCULATION
WITH 15-20 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND WEAKER WINDS
ELSEWHERE. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MARGINAL WITH
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND BROAD DIFFLUENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
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smqhzxz
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6楼#
发布于:2015-10-20 16:41
纬度有点高,并且还在北上,结合数值模型来看,该扰已没什么潜力了
风雨无阻
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小范老师
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7楼#
发布于:2015-10-20 18:46
TXPQ28 KNES 201004
TCSWNP

A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94W)

B.  20/0832Z

C.  18.4N

D.  162.4E

E.  THREE/MTSAT

F.  T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G.  IR/EIR/SWIR

H.  REMARKS...LOW LEVEL CENTER REMAINS FULLY EXPOSED WITH CONVECTION
SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED THIS PERIOD WITH
EXPANSIVE COLD CLOUD TOPS. LLCC IS DEFINED BY CIRCULAR CLOUD LINES WITH
CENTER LESS THAN 75NMI FROM THE COLD OVERCAST WHICH IS GREATER THAN 90NMI
WIDE FOR DT=2.0. MET=1.5 BASED ON 24 HOUR DEVELOPING TREND. PT=1.5. FT
IS BASED ON MET.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    NIL


...RUMINSKI
うるさくてたまらないんだ...
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tcfa_gw
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8楼#
发布于:2015-10-21 06:36
TPPN13 PGTW 201839

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94W (W OF WAKE ISLAND)

B. 20/1730Z

C. 19.13N

D. 161.45E

E. SIX/HIMA-8

F. T1.0/1.0  STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .20 WRAP YIELDS A DT OF 1.0. PT
AGREES WHILE MET IS CURRENTLY UNAVAILABLE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   MARTINEZ
キズナミュージック? 大切な歌 青春の歌 始まりの歌 奏でよう!何度でもいつまでも 精一杯!Forever for dreaming! 歌を信じる——
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拉姆爱推销
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9楼#
发布于:2015-10-21 06:53

图片:abpwsair.jpg


(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.0N
162.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 161.8E, APPROXIMATELY 280 NM WEST
OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED IR SHOWS GOOD FLARING CONVECTION
ON THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A FULLY EXPOSED LLCC. A 201051Z ASCAT
IMAGE SHOWS A CLEAR LLCC WITH SOLID 15 KNOTS AROUND THE CIRCULATION
WITH SOME 20 KNOT WINDS IN THE DEEPEST CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATED GOOD DIVERGENCE WITH EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW AND LOW VWS. WHILE GLOBAL MODELS STILL STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP
THE SYSTEM, IT HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

图片:wp9415.gif


WTPN21 PGTW 202230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.4N 162.2E TO 27.0N 156.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 201800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 19.0N 161.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.0N
162.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 162.6E, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM WEST
OF WAKE ISLAND. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE
BULK OF CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. WHILE THERE IS LIMITED GLOBAL MODEL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM, THE INCREASE IN PERSISTENT CONVECTION OVER THE PAST
36 HOURS LEADS TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO
INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
212230Z.//
NNNN
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