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[EP]墨西哥西南热带风暴“里克”(21E.Rick) - MAX:35KT

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更多 发布于:2015-11-17 20:02
90E INVEST 151117 1200  12.8N  109.1W EPAC   25  1007

An elongated area of low pressure extending from several hundred
miles south to southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula is producing a large area of cloudiness and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive for
development, and a tropical depression could form during the next
few days while this system moves west-northwestward to
northwestward.

1. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

图片:two_pac_2d0.png


图片:two_pac_2d1.png

[拉姆爱推销于2015-11-24 11:47编辑了帖子]
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1楼#
发布于:2015-11-18 06:43

图片:two_pac_2d1.png


1. Widespread shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an
elongated area of low pressure extending from several hundred miles
south to southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula has increased and become more concentrated since
yesterday. Environmental conditions are conducive for development
through late this week, and a tropical depression is likely to form
during the next few days while this system moves west-northwestward
to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent
你猜论坛什么时候能校准时间,什么时候能开放头像功能?
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2楼#
发布于:2015-11-18 20:12

图片:two_pac_2d1(1).png


A concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms is associated with
a low pressure system located about 700 miles south-southeast of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.  Satellite data
indicate that the circulation of the low has become much better
defined overnight.  Environmental conditions are conducive for
additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
during the next day or so while this disturbance moves toward the
west-northwest or northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
快乐下班路,欢乐晚高峰。
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t02436
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3楼#
发布于:2015-11-18 22:47
12Z评价30节,NHC紧急将展望调升至90%,准备编号21E。
EP, 90, 2015111812,   , BEST,   0, 133N, 1074W,  30, 1005, LO,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1008,  150,  60,  40,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, M,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 042,

图片:two_pac_2d1.png


Special tropical weather outlook issued to update the discussion of
the low pressure system south of Mexico.


1. Updated:  Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low
pressure located about 675 miles south-southeast of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula have continued to become better
organized this morning.  Satellite data indicate that a tropical
depression may be forming, and if the current development
trend continues advisories will be initiated on a tropical
depression later this morning or this afternoon.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
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t02436
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4楼#
发布于:2015-11-19 00:37
16Z升21E。

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 181557
TCDEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212015
1000 AM MDT WED NOV 18 2015

The circulation associated with the low pressure system located
several hundred miles south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja
California has become well-defined overnight according to
scatterometer data.  These data and first-light visible satellite
imagery also indicate the that center of the cyclone is near the
southeastern edge of large mass of cold-topped convection,
suggesting the presence of some southeasterly shear.  A Dvorak
classification of T2.0 from TAFB, along with the earlier
scatterometer data, is used to set the intensity to 30 kt.

Since the history of fixes on this system is short, the initial
motion estimate of 360/02 is somewhat uncertain.  A deep trough over
the central United States has created a significant weakness along
110W, which has made for a weak steering environment around the
depression.  However, a weak mid-level anticyclone to the south of
mainland Mexico has been imparting a slow northward motion.  This
motion should continue for another 24 hours, at which time a
mid-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico is forecast to build
westward into the eastern Pacific when the central U.S. trough lifts
out.  The building ridge should result in a northwestward and then a
west-northwestward track through 72 hours.  After that time, a
trough currently between 130W and 140W in the subtropics is forecast
to eject eastward toward the cyclone and result in its recurvature
in about 96 hours.  The official forecast track is on the left side
of the guidance envelope, closest to the ECMWF and GFS solutions,
and generally near the multi-model consensus.

There are mixed signals on the potential for intensification in the
short term.  Although the waters are anomalously warm, some
southeasterly shear is likely to continue to affect the cyclone over
the next day or two, along with some drying of the lower to middle
troposphere.  These large-scale conditions suggest that some
strengthening should occur, but it likely would be tempered by these
two negative factors.  Around 72 hours, the cyclone should encounter
an environment of increasing south-southwesterly or southwesterly
shear associated with the trough advancing from the west and rapidly
weaken, likely becoming a remnant low by day 5, if not sooner.  The
official intensity forecast is a little above the multi-model
consensus and closest to the ECMWF SHIPS output.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/1600Z 13.0N 107.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  19/0000Z 13.3N 107.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  19/1200Z 13.8N 107.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  20/0000Z 14.8N 108.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  20/1200Z 15.8N 110.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  21/1200Z 16.4N 113.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  22/1200Z 18.1N 114.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  23/1200Z 20.5N 114.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

图片:155638W_sm.gif

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luhang
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5楼#
发布于:2015-11-19 12:05
t02436锛16Z升21E。

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 181557
TCDEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIO...
鍥炲埌鍘熷笘
NHC没事吧
回眸过去,守望现在,眺望未来!
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t02436
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6楼#
发布于:2015-11-19 20:55
速报评价35节,即将命名Rick。

EP, 21, 2015111912,   , BEST,   0, 143N, 1057W, 35, 1002, TS,  34, NEQ,   30,    0,    0,   50, 1007,  200,  40,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0, TWENTY-ONE, M,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 042,
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t02436
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7楼#
发布于:2015-11-19 23:51
t02436锛毸俦ㄆ兰35节,即将命名Rick。

EP, 21, 2015111912,   , BEST,   0, 143N, 1057W,  35, 1002, TS,  34, NEQ,   30,    0,    0,   50, 10...
鍥炲埌鍘熷笘
命名报

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 191457
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212015
900 AM CST THU NOV 19 2015

The cloud pattern of the cyclone is better organized than this time
yesterday.  First-light visible imagery indicates that the low-level
center is underneath a circular mass of deep convection, and there
has been an increase in banding features and their associated
curvature.  The increase in organization could be a sign of some
decrease of the southeasterly shear that has been affecting the
cyclone.  A Dvorak intensity estimate of T2.5 from TAFB and an
UW-CIMSS ADT value of 2.9 is used to raise the initial intensity
estimate to 35 kt.

Some further decrease in southeasterly shear is likely through
early Friday.  With large-scale environmental conditions otherwise
largely favorable, intensification is shown through about 24 to 36
hours.  The window of opportunity for strengthening should be short-
lived though, since west-southwesterly shear is forecast to increase
by 48 hours when Rick moves north of the upper-level ridge axis.
The shear should become prohibitively high by 72 hours ahead of a
shortwave trough in the eastern Pacific subtropics being ejected
eastward toward the cyclone.  The result should be rapid weakening,
and remnant low status is likely by 96 hours, if not sooner.
Dissipation is now shown by 120 hours. The new NHC intensity
forecast is slightly above the previous one, and shows and earlier
peak, with remnant low status indicated sooner.

The center has been difficult to locate but seems to be slightly
farther east than previous estimates based on a couple of microwave
passes and visible imagery. The best estimate of the initial motion
is north or 360/06. Global models show mid-level ridging building to
the north of the cyclone today, and the depression should be respond
by moving more quickly toward the northwest and then west-northwest
over the next day or two.  Rick should reach the western periphery
of this ridge in 3 to 4 days and begin to move more poleward, but
will likely dissipate before responding to the trough in the
subtropics moving toward it.  The new track forecast is right of the
previous one, primarily due to the more eastward initial position
estimate.

Only 3 tropical storms have formed later than this calendar date in
the eastern North Pacific since reliable records began in the early
1970s.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/1500Z 14.7N 105.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  20/0000Z 15.2N 106.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  20/1200Z 16.2N 108.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  21/0000Z 17.1N 110.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  21/1200Z 17.7N 112.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  22/1200Z 19.0N 113.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  23/1200Z 20.9N 114.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

图片:144407W_sm.gif

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8楼#
发布于:2015-11-22 14:50
深对流被切离,风场扫描不佳,降格热带低压
21E RICK 151122 0600  17.1N  117.5W EPAC    30  1005
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