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[翻译请求]ECMWF’s annual user meeting to focus on evaluating high-impact weather forecasts

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更多 发布于:2016-04-10 15:38
ECMWF’s annual user meeting to focus on evaluating high-impact weather forecasts

7 April 2016


图片:1.png




Every year ECMWF invites its forecast users to the ‘Using ECMWF Forecasts’ (UEF) meeting, a forum for exchanging ideas and experiences on the use of ECMWF data and products.

This year‘s meeting takes place at ECMWF from 6 to 9 June, with the theme ‘Shaping future approaches to evaluating high-impact weather forecasts’. Registration is free and is open to all ECMWF forecast users in Europe and around the world.

The event is an opportunity for users to find out about ECMWF’s activities and future plans, to provide feedback to ECMWF and to contribute to the discussion on how to evaluate high-impact weather forecasts.

High-impact weather is of particular interest to forecast users, and its prediction with a seamless ensemble analysis/forecast system is at the heart of ECMWF’s proposed new strategy.

Weather can have high impact by virtue of its extreme amplitude (e.g. tropical cyclones) or its longevity (e.g. heatwaves) and because of its societal impacts on specific user communities. All these aspects present a particular challenge for forecasting systems, and demand considerable development of diagnostic and verification capabilities.
UEF2016 will focus on the verification aspects with some emphasis on measuring the quality of the forecasts in a manner that is relevant to users.

The programme comprises talks by ECMWF staff on the latest developments of the forecasting systems and by participants, keynote addresses on specific topics to stimulate discussion and sessions where networking will be encouraged. There will also be a display area for visual demonstrations and posters.

Thematic areas


High-impact weather forecasts: measuring long-term improvement
Forecasting of high-impact weather events has become a central part of the work in NMSs, and an important aspect of the activities of commercial enterprises. Knowledge about the quality of model data and relevant ensemble-based products is essential to deliver value. The purpose of this section is to explore the use of verification scores that highlight long-term improvement of forecasts for high-impact weather events.
User-oriented verification
Measures of a model’s performance are an important element in building users’ confidence in the forecast. Such measures need to be relevant for user communities in order to allow them to identify weather situations in which the forecast is more or less reliable, and by identifying the extent to which the forecast is useful as a basis for decision-making in weather-sensitive activities. This section will explore the progress in user-oriented verification and the added value for the user communities, with a focus on ensemble-based forecasts.
Seamless verification across different time scales
Numerical weather prediction models provide forecasts for various time scales. From the verification viewpoint, this poses a challenge as the skill at different time scales will need to be compared even though verification questions may be different. This section will explore ideas for verification across time scales in an effort to provide forecast users with a seamless assessment of model skill.
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发布于:2016-04-10 21:15
歐洲中期天氣預報中心的年度用户會議將集中評估高影響度天氣預報

二零一六年四月七日


欧洲中期天气预报中心的年度用户会议将集中评估高影响度天气预报

二零一六年四月七日

ECMWF’s annual user meeting to focus on evaluating high-impact weather forecasts

7 April 2016

图片:UEF_workshop_header_v2.png



每年歐洲中期天氣預報中心(ECMWF)會邀請其預報用户出席「使用ECMWF的預報」(UEF)會議,就使用ECMWF的數據和產品交流想法和經驗。
每年欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)会邀请其预报用户出席「使用ECMWF的预报」(UEF)会议,就使用ECMWF的数据和产品交流想法和经验。

Every year ECMWF invites its forecast users to the ‘Using ECMWF Forecasts’ (UEF) meeting, a forum for exchanging ideas and experiences on the use of ECMWF data and products.

今年會議於六月六日至九日在ECMWF總部舉行,主題為「塑造未來對評估高影響度天氣預報的方向」,並開放予所有歐洲和世界各地的ECMWF預報用户免費登記。
今年会议于六月六日至九日在ECMWF总部举行,主题为「塑造未来对评估高影响度天气预报的方向」,并开放予所有欧洲和世界各地的ECMWF预报用户免费登记。

This year‘s meeting takes place at ECMWF from 6 to 9 June, with the theme ‘Shaping future approaches to evaluating high-impact weather forecasts’. Registration is free and is open to all ECMWF forecast users in Europe and around the world.

是次活動為用户提供機會去認識ECMWF的其他活動和未來計劃。他們亦可發表意見和參與有關如何評估高影響度天氣預報的討論,集思廣益。
是次活动为用户提供机会去认识ECMWF的其他活动和未来计划。他们亦可发表意见和参与有关如何评估高影响度天气预报的讨论,集思广益。

The event is an opportunity for users to find out about ECMWF’s activities and future plans, to provide feedback to ECMWF and to contribute to the discussion on how to evaluate high-impact weather forecasts.

高影響度天氣尤為預報用户所關注。而就此而設的一套完美無縫的集合分析和預報系統為ECMWF新建議的策略核心。

高影响度天气尤为预报用户所关注。而就此而设的一套完美无缝的集合分析和预报系统为ECMWF新建议的策略核心。

High-impact weather is of particular interest to forecast users, and its prediction with a seamless ensemble analysis/forecast system is at the heart of ECMWF’s proposed new strategy.

由天氣引致的重大影響可以歸因於其極端的強度(如熱帶氣旋)或長久度(如熱浪),以及對社會不同用户團體構成的影響。以上各方面都是預報系統所面臨的挑戰,大幅發展診斷和驗證的能力十分重要。
由天气引起的重大影响可以归因于其极端的强度(如热带气旋)或长久度(如热浪),以及对社会不同用户团体构成的影响。以上各方面都是预报系统所面临的挑战,大幅发展诊断和验证的能力十分重要。

Weather can have high impact by virtue of its extreme amplitude (e.g. tropical cyclones) or its longevity (e.g. heatwaves) and because of its societal impacts on specific user communities. All these aspects present a particular challenge for forecasting systems, and demand considerable development of diagnostic and verification capabilities.

UEF2016 將集中關注驗證方面的能力,並強調測量預報質素的方法要貼切用户所需。
UEF2016 将集中关注验证方面的能力,并强调测量预报质素的方法要贴切用户所需。

UEF2016 will focus on the verification aspects with some emphasis on measuring the quality of the forecasts in a manner that is relevant to users.

活動期間,ECMWF職員將就預報系統匯報最新發展。屆時亦會有其他參與者主持的講座、特定話題的演講和聯網場合。展覧場地將設有示範和海報。
活动期间,ECMWF职员将就预报系统汇报最新发展。届时亦会有其他参与者主持的讲座、特定话题的演讲和联网场合。展覧场地将设有示范和海报。

The programme comprises talks by ECMWF staff on the latest developments of the forecasting systems and by participants, keynote addresses on specific topics to ,stimulate discussion and sessions where networking will be encouraged. There will also be a display area for visual demonstrations and posters.

主題範疇
主题范畴

Thematic areas

高影響度天氣預報:測量長期進步
預報高影響度天氣事件已經成為很多國家氣象機構的核心業務,以及商企活動的重要一環。模式數據和相關集合產品質素的知識對優秀的服務而言至關重要。此部分之目的為探討使用驗證分數來突顯高影響度天氣預報的長期進步。

高影响度天气预报:测量长期进步
预报高影响度天气事件已经成为很多国家气象机构的核心业务,以及商企活动的重要一环。模式数据和相关集合产品质素的知识对优秀的服务而言至关重要。此部分之目的为探讨使用验证分数来突显高影响度天气预报的长期进步。

High-impact weather forecasts: measuring long-term improvement
Forecasting of high-impact weather events has become a central part of the work in NMSs, and an important aspect of the activities of commercial enterprises. Knowledge about the quality of model data and relevant ensemble-based products is essential to deliver value. The purpose of this section is to explore the use of verification scores that highlight long-term improvement of forecasts for high-impact weather events.

面向用户的驗證
測量模式的表現是建立用户信心的重要元素。此類措施須貼切用户團體以幫助他們分辨不同天氣情況下預報的可靠度,以及預報作為左右活動決策基礎的可用水平。此部分將著眼於集合預報下,面向用户的驗證的進展和其對用户團體的裨益。

面向用户的验证
测量模式的表现是建立用户信心的重要元素。此类措施须贴切用户团体以帮助他们分辨不同天气情况下预报的可靠度,以及预报作为左右活动决策基础的可用水平。此部分将着眼于集合预报下,面向用户的验证的进展和其对用户团体的裨益。

User-oriented verification
Measures of a model’s performance are an important element in building users’ confidence in the forecast. Such measures need to be relevant for user communities in order to allow them to identify weather situations in which the forecast is more or less reliable, and by identifying the extent to which the forecast is useful as a basis for decision-making in weather-sensitive activities. This section will explore the progress in user-oriented verification and the added value for the user communities, with a focus on ensemble-based forecasts.

跨越不同時間尺度的無縫驗證
數值天氣預報模式提供適用於不同時間尺度的預報。然而,由於不同時間尺度的技術須互相比較但各自問題可能不同,這對驗證構成了挑戰。此部分將探討如何做到跨越不同時間尺度的驗證,力求為預報用户配備一套無縫評核模式的技巧。

跨越不同时间尺度的无缝验证
数值天气预报模式提供适用于不同时间尺度的预报。然而,由于不同时间尺度的技术须互相比较但各自问题可能不同,这对验证构成了挑战。此部分将探讨如何做到跨越不同时间尺度的验证,力求为预报用户配备一套无缝评核模式的技巧。

Seamless verification across different time scales
Numerical weather prediction models provide forecasts for various time scales. From the verification viewpoint, this poses a challenge as the skill at different time scales will need to be compared even though verification questions may be different. This section will explore ideas for verification across time scales in an effort to provide forecast users with a seamless assessment of model skill.



原文網址:
http://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/news/2016/ecmwf%27s-annual-user-meeting-focus-evaluating-high-impact-weather
[颱風巨爵于2016-04-10 23:52编辑了帖子]
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