[AL]佛得角西南96L - 9.8N 33.7W - NHC:40%

---

发源地深处内陆。

图片：data=RfCSdfNZ0LFPrHSm0ublXdzhdrDFhtmHhN1u-gM,xG8XES5tc8uJaSvNZKVHfBdYm_l8wtI-3pK

9.7N 3.2W

1. A tropical wave accompanied by a broad low pressure system is
producing a large area of cloudiness and disorganized shower
activity about 550 miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Some
development of this system is possible during the next few days
while it moves westward or west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
However, environmental conditions are expected to become less
conducive for development early next week while the system is over
the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

图片：two_atl_2d1.png

图片：two_atl_5d1.png

区域对应风切较低，有很大希望成为Earl,

图片：wg8sht.GIF

图片：20160728.1200.msg3.x.vis1km.96LINVEST.20kts-1011mb-103N-200W.100pc.jpg

TXNT29 KNES 281236
TCSNTL
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (96L)
B.  28/1200Z
C.  10.4N
D.  19.9W
E.  THREE/MET-10
F.  T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...INITIAL CLASSIFICATION FOR THIS SYSTEM. 96L IS COMPACT
BUT WITH WELL DEFINED CONVECTIVE BAND IN WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. MID LEVEL
CICULATION IS APPARENT AND LOW CLOUD ELEMENTS ARE SEEN CONVERGING INTO
CONVECTION AND APPEAR TO HAVE CLOSED OFF A CIRCULATION. 4 TENTHS BANDING
IN TIGHTLY CURVED BAND GIVES UNREALISTICALLY HIGH DT=2.5. MET=1.0 BASED
ON INITIAL CLASSIFICATION. PT=1.0. FT IS BASED ON MET.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL

...RUMINSKI

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

2. The area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave and a
low pressure system centered about 350 miles south-southeast of
the Cabo Verde Islands has changed little in organization during the
day. This system has some potential for slight development during
the next day or two, before the disturbance encounters a less
favorable environment over the central tropical Atlantic next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

Forecaster Avila

图片：20160729.0100.msg3.x.ir1km_bw.96LINVEST.25kts-1010mb-112N-209W.100pc.jpg

2. Shower activity associated with a tropical wave and a low pressuresystem centered a couple of hundred miles south of the Cabo VerdeIslands has become better organized since yesterday. Someadditional development is possible during the next day or two beforethe disturbance encounters a less favorable environment over thecentral tropical Atlantic next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

图片：0c7a11dfa9ec8a13618da48cff03918fa1ecc099.jpg

图片：two_atl_2d2.png

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

2. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
and a low pressure system centered a couple of hundred miles
southwest of Cabo Verde has become less organized during the past
24 hours.  However, there is still a chance for some development
during the next day or two before the disturbance encounters a less
favorable environment over the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

Forecaster Beven

图片：two_atl_2d2.png

图片：20160729.0545.goes13.x.ir1km_bw.96LINVEST.25kts-1010mb-112N-209W.100pc.jpg

TXNT29 KNES 290607
TCSNTL
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (96L)
B.  29/0545Z
C.  12.0N
D.  21.7W
E.  FIVE/MET-10
F.  T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR
H.  REMARKS...MICROWAVE DATA HAS ONLY AFFORDED A PARTIAL VIEW OF THE
DISTURBANCE, BUT SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS POORLY
DEFINED. LOW CONFIDENCE POSITION IS BASED ON MID LEVEL CENTER. BANDING
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER MEASURES 3/10, WHICH RESULTS IN A DT
OF 1.5. MET IS 1.0. PT IS 1.5. FT IS BASED ON PT BECAUSE THE BANDING
FEATURE IS NOT CLEAR CUT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL

...TURK

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a strong and fast-moving
tropical wave now entering the extreme eastern Caribbean Sea are
disorganized, while satellite data and surface observations indicate
no signs of a closed surface circulation. Although some gradual
development of this system is possible during the next couple of
days, the chance for tropical cyclone formation should increase
after the wave reaches the western Caribbean Sea in a couple of
days. This disturbance is expected to bring locally heavy rains and
gusty winds to portions of the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands,
and Puerto Rico today. These conditions should spread westward
across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea tonight and reach
Hispaniola on Monday. Interests in these areas and elsewhere in the
Caribbean Sea should continue to monitor the progress of this
system. For additional information on this system, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

2. Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a
tropical wave located nearly 700 miles west-southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands has changed little in organization. This system should
continue moving westward at 10 to 15 mph, and development is
unlikely due to unfavorable upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

图片：two_atl_2d2.png