96L INVEST 160727 1200 9.9N 15.3W ATL 20 1010 图片:20160727.0745.f18.x.vis1km.96LINVEST.20kts-1010mb-99N-153W.100pc.jpg ![]() 图片:two_atl_2d1.png ![]() 图片:two_atl_5d0.png ![]() TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A tropical wave located along the coast of western Africa is producing a large area of cloudiness and disorganized shower activity. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some development of this disturbance during the next several days while it moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent $$ Forecaster Stewart 扫描二维码,查看更多台风内容! ![]() [红豆棒冰冰于2019-02-03 22:56编辑了帖子]
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1楼#
发布于:2016-07-27 20:33
发源地深处内陆。
图片:data=RfCSdfNZ0LFPrHSm0ublXdzhdrDFhtmHhN1u-gM,xG8XES5tc8uJaSvNZKVHfBdYm_l8wtI-3pK ![]() 9.7N 3.2W |
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2楼#
发布于:2016-07-28 11:05
1. A tropical wave accompanied by a broad low pressure system is producing a large area of cloudiness and disorganized shower activity about 550 miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. Some development of this system is possible during the next few days while it moves westward or west-northwestward at about 15 mph. However, environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive for development early next week while the system is over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent 图片:two_atl_2d1.png ![]() 图片:two_atl_5d1.png ![]() |
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3楼#
发布于:2016-07-28 17:37
区域对应风切较低,有很大希望成为Earl,
图片:wg8sht.GIF ![]() |
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4楼#
发布于:2016-07-29 00:51
图片:20160728.1200.msg3.x.vis1km.96LINVEST.20kts-1011mb-103N-200W.100pc.jpg ![]() TXNT29 KNES 281236 TCSNTL A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (96L) B. 28/1200Z C. 10.4N D. 19.9W E. THREE/MET-10 F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS G. IR/EIR/VIS H. REMARKS...INITIAL CLASSIFICATION FOR THIS SYSTEM. 96L IS COMPACT BUT WITH WELL DEFINED CONVECTIVE BAND IN WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. MID LEVEL CICULATION IS APPARENT AND LOW CLOUD ELEMENTS ARE SEEN CONVERGING INTO CONVECTION AND APPEAR TO HAVE CLOSED OFF A CIRCULATION. 4 TENTHS BANDING IN TIGHTLY CURVED BAND GIVES UNREALISTICALLY HIGH DT=2.5. MET=1.0 BASED ON INITIAL CLASSIFICATION. PT=1.0. FT IS BASED ON MET. I. ADDL POSITIONS NIL ...RUMINSKI |
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5楼#
发布于:2016-07-29 09:52
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 2. The area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave and a low pressure system centered about 350 miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands has changed little in organization during the day. This system has some potential for slight development during the next day or two, before the disturbance encounters a less favorable environment over the central tropical Atlantic next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent Forecaster Avila 图片:20160729.0100.msg3.x.ir1km_bw.96LINVEST.25kts-1010mb-112N-209W.100pc.jpg ![]() |
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6楼#
发布于:2016-07-29 20:17
2. Shower activity associated with a tropical wave and a low pressuresystem centered a couple of hundred miles south of the Cabo VerdeIslands has become better organized since yesterday. Someadditional development is possible during the next day or two beforethe disturbance encounters a less favorable environment over thecentral tropical Atlantic next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent 图片:0c7a11dfa9ec8a13618da48cff03918fa1ecc099.jpg ![]() 图片:two_atl_2d2.png ![]() [颱風巨爵于2016-07-29 23:17编辑了帖子]
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7楼#
发布于:2016-07-31 00:20
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 2. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave and a low pressure system centered a couple of hundred miles southwest of Cabo Verde has become less organized during the past 24 hours. However, there is still a chance for some development during the next day or two before the disturbance encounters a less favorable environment over the central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent Forecaster Beven 图片:two_atl_2d2.png ![]() |
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8楼#
发布于:2016-07-31 05:31
图片:20160729.0545.goes13.x.ir1km_bw.96LINVEST.25kts-1010mb-112N-209W.100pc.jpg ![]() TXNT29 KNES 290607 TCSNTL A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (96L) B. 29/0545Z C. 12.0N D. 21.7W E. FIVE/MET-10 F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS G. IR/EIR/SWIR H. REMARKS...MICROWAVE DATA HAS ONLY AFFORDED A PARTIAL VIEW OF THE DISTURBANCE, BUT SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS POORLY DEFINED. LOW CONFIDENCE POSITION IS BASED ON MID LEVEL CENTER. BANDING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER MEASURES 3/10, WHICH RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.5. MET IS 1.0. PT IS 1.5. FT IS BASED ON PT BECAUSE THE BANDING FEATURE IS NOT CLEAR CUT. I. ADDL POSITIONS NIL ...TURK |
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9楼#
发布于:2016-08-01 00:44
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: tropical wave now entering the extreme eastern Caribbean Sea are disorganized, while satellite data and surface observations indicate no signs of a closed surface circulation. Although some gradual development of this system is possible during the next couple of days, the chance for tropical cyclone formation should increase after the wave reaches the western Caribbean Sea in a couple of days. This disturbance is expected to bring locally heavy rains and gusty winds to portions of the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico today. These conditions should spread westward across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea tonight and reach Hispaniola on Monday. Interests in these areas and elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea should continue to monitor the progress of this system. For additional information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent 2. Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave located nearly 700 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has changed little in organization. This system should continue moving westward at 10 to 15 mph, and development is unlikely due to unfavorable upper-level winds. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent 图片:two_atl_2d2.png ![]() |
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