luhang
论坛版主-副热带高压
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[报文翻译][2016] 1604号热带气旋“妮妲”(06W.Nida) JTWC预报理由翻译帖

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更多 发布于:2016-07-29 11:58
楼层报数时间翻译情况翻译者
1TCFA07-29 0130Z全文翻译luhang
2#0107-29 1500Z全文翻译egthart12345
3#0207-29 2100Z全文翻译tyfans
4#0307-30 0300Z全文翻译egthart12345
5#0407-30 0900Z全文翻译tyfans
6#0507-30 1500Z全文翻译颱風巨爵
7#0607-30 2100Z全文翻译tyfans
8#0707-31 0300Z全文翻译风王2012
9#0807-31 0900Z全文翻译颱風巨爵
10#0907-31 1500Z全文翻译风王2012
11#1007-31 2100Z全文翻译egthart12345
12#1208-01 0900Z全文翻译egthart12345
13#1308-01 1500Z全文翻译egthart12345
说明: 1、由于该热带系统未来发展态势良好,且可能影响我国南部沿海,所以特开此贴。 2、本贴翻译JTWC报文,时间以协调世界時的作准。 3、翻译前为防止重复翻译原则上需要预约,可以直接回帖预约或发私信至开帖人预约。 4、为信息展示需要,请将报文原文和译文放置于同一楼层。若回帖预约的,请将翻译放在预约帖。 5、有时间的童鞋建议全文翻译,我们也鼓励抓要点进行简单翻译,简单翻译的要点: 发报时定位,过去的移动速度、结构、强度、环境场,未来的强度、路径、环境场,数值的预测。 6、本帖不允许发与翻译和预约不相符的内容,否则将被视为灌水删帖处理。 7、翻译中若若有其他任何疑惑,欢迎加入翻译小组QQ群152955236加入我们的讨论。 组织规则: 第一条 预报理由翻译贴是对JTWC Reasoning文件进行翻译的专贴。由于气旋的Reasoning文件翻译量不定,因此需要一定的人事组织,参与组织或翻译的会员将获得一定程度的奖励。 第二条 任何会员都可对任何JTWC升格的系统开贴,但原则上建议只对我国有影响的系统开帖。对不影响我国的系统,不建议单独开贴,翻译者可在追击贴或深度贴内进行,版主将按第八条之标准酌情加分。 第三条 开帖人默认为组织人,负责更新首楼的翻译信息表,并履行好翻译工作的责任,自己开帖让别人翻译的行为将被谴责及追究。如遇多人开贴,则同“抢扰动”规则,只保留一个帖子。若开帖人无时间组织,可委托管理团队组织。 第四条 翻译的模式有两种,分别为全部翻译、要点翻译。实践中,不建议连续全文翻译,可针对预报理由变动进行要点总结。 第五条 内容发布时,报文原文、中文翻译必须齐全。 第六条 开贴加分:开帖人翻译一篇或以上报文,威望+5;否则削减为威望+2。 第七条 组织加分:开设翻译信息表,贡献值+1;维护翻译信息表至台风结束,根据台风维持时间长短,追加贡献值2点,威望3~8点。 第八条 内容加分:全文翻译,视翻译质量加贡献值6-9点;要点翻译,视翻译质量贡献值2-5点。对单个台风,翻译5~9报者,追加贡献值5点,翻译10报以上者,追加贡献值10点。 第九条 使用翻译机进行翻译的,不予加分。 第十条 台风论坛管理团队对本条例有最终解释权。
[颱風巨爵于2016-08-03 20:36编辑了帖子]
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luhang
论坛版主-副热带高压
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1楼#
发布于:2016-07-29 16:56
96W JTWC预报理由翻译帖 TCFA - 7月29日9时30分(290130Z)
WTPN21 PGTW 290130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.6N 127.7E TO 15.9N 125.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 290100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.9N 127.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.0N 128.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 127.5E, APPROXIMATELY
765 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH
FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC).  A 282306Z SSMIS 91 GHZ PARTIAL PASS REVEALS A BAND
OF HEAVY CONVECTION DIRECTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES, WITH A
SMALLER AREA OF CENTRAL CONVECTION BEGINNING TO BUILD, INDICATIVE OF
THE DEEPENING LLCC. DESPITE THE HEAVY CONVECTION, CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS THROUGHOUT THE AREA DEPICT MOSTLY LIGHT (5-10 KNOT)
WINDS, WITH MSLP BETWEEN 1006 TO 1007 MB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT, WITH LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND IMPROVING RADIAL OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO VERY
FAVORABLE. ALTHOUGH THE LLCC IS STILL BROAD AT THIS TIME, THE MSI IS
SHOWING SIGNS THAT THIS DISTURBANCE IS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING. THE
LATEST ROUND OF GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALSO TRENDING TOWARD TROPICAL
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE DISTURBANCE TRACKS NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS LUZON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO CONTINUED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND
MODEL INDICATED DEVELOPMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
300130Z.
//
NNNN
 
1.一个热带气旋可能在北纬11.6度,东经127.7度与北纬15.9度,东经125.2度之间长约100海里的区域内形成。当前资料表明,目前还不需要对其编号并发布热带气旋警告。目前该区风力估计为15至20节。气象卫星监测可见其中心目前位于北纬11.9度,东经127.5度。该系统目前以10节左右的速度向西北偏北方向移动。
 
2。备注:对流区96W原本位于北纬11.0度,东经128.5度附近,而目前系统移动至北纬11.9度,东经127.5度附近,也即是菲律宾马尼拉东南偏东约765海里的西北太平洋洋面上。多光谱卫星云图动画(MSI)展现了一大片深对流绕着一个发展中的底层旋转中心(LLCC)旋转。频率为910亿赫兹的特别微波探测成像仪/探空仪(SSMIS 91 GHZ)①②在协调世界时28日23时06分的图像显示一片旋转的强对流云系位于菲律宾中部,而中心附近有一块小的对流区,其表明LLCC正在加强。尽管当前资料显示强对流区仅有5-10节的风和1006至1007毫巴的海平面气压。高层分析显示系统有5-10节的低垂直风切变以及良好的幅散,这些分析表明系统处在一个良好的发展环境之中持续发展。海面表层温度(SST)也颇高,有利于系统发展。即使此时的LLCC依然狭长,但MSI显示其(LLCC)情况正在迅速好转。最新的电脑数值预报显示系统将向西北偏北方向移动,并在24小时内逐渐趋向菲律宾吕宋岛。中心附近最大风速估计为15至20节,海平面最低气压约为1006毫巴。预计其LLCC将持续巩固且数值认为其将发展。未来24小时系统发展为热带气旋的概率为高。
 
3.这个警报会在协调世界时30日01时30分补发,升级为热带气旋警告或取消。
①:名词翻译来自 颱風巨爵
②:这张图明明只是扫中了半个中心

图片:79_81869_caadcae7a5adce7.gif

[颱風巨爵于2016-07-30 11:47编辑了帖子]
1条评分, 贡献值 +7
  • luhang
    贡献值 7
    优秀帖
    2016-08-07 10:41
回眸过去,守望现在,眺望未来!
2014...2015...2016...2017...2018......
又是新的一年,感谢论坛,也感谢我在论坛的时光
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egthart12345
超强台风
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2楼#
发布于:2016-07-29 21:46
06W JTWC预报理由翻译帖 #1 - 7月29日23时(291500Z)
1、供气象从业人员使用
2、6小时总结与分析
热带低压(TD)06W(SIX)位于菲律宾马尼拉东南偏东约394海里,过去6小时以5节的速度向西北方向移动。动态色调强化卫星动画显示在低层环流中心上(LLCC)发展中的中心对流正在加强整合。一幅格林尼治时间29日10时16分的特别微波扫描图显示深厚的构建中的螺旋云带沿北侧卷入广阔的低层环流中心。初始位置定位在建立中的中心对流下和格林尼治时间29日13时21分的一幅进阶散射测定仪图像中显示的略长低层环流中心,对该定位信心较高。25节的现时强度是基于改善的对流结构和所有机构的25节的德沃夏克估值以及在格林尼治时间29日13时21分的ASCAT显示在其南侧录得25节的风速。对流结构的改善是因为低垂直型风切(5-10节)、辐射式流出,30摄氏度的海表温度等有利环境。热带低压06W继续在东面弱的低到中层的副热带高压影响下向西北缓慢移动。
3、预报理由。
A、这是初始的预报理由,奠定了预报哲理。
B、热带低压06W将继续在东面副热带高压的影响下向西北偏北方向移动。系统将在未来的12个小时内缓慢增强,并继续巩固低层环流中心。随后,由于上述环境条件结合海洋高热量,预期会有一个快速增强的阶段。靠近48小时后,气旋将开始与吕宋岛的山地作用。同时,由于副热带高压在系统北面,热带低压06W的路径将会更偏向西北,穿过吕宋岛北部海岸。在这期间,在南海再度出现温水前由于陆地作用下热带低压06W会略有减弱。南海的环境条件将保持有利,是的气旋能够恢复它的强度。
C.在预报延伸期,热带低压06W将继续沿西北方向移向香港。靠近96小时后南海的有利条件会支持其在登陆前额外加强至75节。因为系统将进一步深入内陆,预料系统会迅速减弱。动态模式取得异常紧密的共识,因此JTWC对初始路径预报信心较高。
WDPN31 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING
NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 06W (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 394 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASED CONSOLIDATION WITH DEVELOPING
CENTRAL CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
291016Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP FORMATIVE BANDING
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING INTO THE BROAD LLCC. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BENEATH THE BUILDING
CENTRAL CONVECTION AND IS SUPPORTED BY A 291321Z ASCAT BULLSEYE
SHOWING A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LLCC. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
AT 25 KNOTS BASED ON THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND IS
SUPPORTED BY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS FROM ALL
AGENCIES AS WELL AS THE 291321Z ASCAT PASS SHOWING 25 KNOT WINDS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE IS
SUPPORTED BY A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND 30
CELSIUS. TD 06W IS DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A WEAK LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TD 06W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWARD THEN NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE
AROUND THE LLCC. AFTERWARDS, EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
COMBINED WITH HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. NEAR TAU 48, THE CYCLONE WILL
BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN IN LUZON.
CONCURRENTLY, TD 06W WILL TURN TO A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY,
CROSSING THE NORTHERN COAST OF LUZON, AS THE STR BUILDS IN NORTH OF
THE SYSTEM. DURING THIS PERIOD, TD 06W WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY DUE TO
LAND INTERACTION BEFORE REEMERGING OVER WARM WATER IN THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WILL
REMAIN FAVORABLE ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO REGAIN ITS PREVIOUS
INTENSITY.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TD 06W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS HONG KONG. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION TO 75
KNOTS JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL NEAR TAU 96. EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO
RAPIDLY DETERIORATE AS IT MOVES FURTHER INLAND. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN UNUSUALLY TIGHT AGREEMENT SUPPORTING HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE INITIAL JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

图片:79_90507_8405cbea2112a5d.gif

[egthart12345于2016-07-30 11:54编辑了帖子]
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  • luhang
    贡献值 8
    优秀帖
    2016-08-07 10:41
  • 颱風巨爵
    贡献值 5
    翻译5报
    2016-08-03 20:39
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tyfans
强热带风暴
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3楼#
发布于:2016-07-29 22:30
06W JTWC预报理由翻译帖 #2 - 7月30日上午5时(292100Z)
1、供气象专家使用。
2、近6小时总结与分析:
热带低压(TD)06W(SIX),目前集结在菲律宾马尼拉东南偏东方363海里的太平洋洋面上。在过去的6个小时内,主要以6节的速度缓慢地往西北方向移动。动态的色调强化红外卫星云图显示,在低层环流中心(LLCC)西侧附近的深对流正在维持。一幅协调世界时间为29日16时44分,频率为890亿赫兹的高级微波辐射扫描仪(AMSR-2 89GHZ)图像可以看出,深对流紧紧地环绕在低层环流中心南侧。我们对初始定位有很好的把握。虽然最近PGTW的德沃夏克分析估值总保持在T1.5,但当前强度所评估的30节却是基于大致位于低层环流中心维持并发展的深对流。具体来说,早些时候的协调世界时为29日13时18分的风场扫描图(ASCAT)显示,有一片风速达25节的区域通过低层环流中心南缘的深对流并加强,且持续几个小时的表现也都支持这一评估。对流形式逐渐变得更有组织,并拥有良好的放射状流出。然而,由于强达15~20节的轻到中等的东风垂直切变,大部分的深对流也只是在低层环流中心的西侧。这个切变,正是位于其东北偏东方的中层副热带高压脊所致,同时也使得06W向西北偏北方向移动。
3、预报理由。
A.以先前的预测推理信息,预报哲学基础基本不变。
B.热带低压06W将继续受位于其东北偏东方的副热带高压脊影响,往西北偏北方向移动。该系统将在温暖的表层海温和上层有利环境支持下,逐渐整合并稳步加强。未来36小时内,预计热带低压06W将在吕宋岛附近生成为台风,当在48小时后进入南中国海时暂停加强。然后由于受到其北方的中国东海的高压脊影响,该气旋应该会更多地转向西北方向移动。
C.之后在延长期内,热带低压05W仍往西北方向移动,趋向香港。在南中国海有良好的环境条件,将支持系统额外强化。预计在72小时后即登陆中国之前,会达到巅峰强度,登陆后将在内陆迅速减弱。动态模型的指导是在异常紧张的协议下进行的,因而帮助了联合台风警报中心在初始路径预测上树立了高信心。
 
WDPN31 PGTW 292100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING
NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 06W (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 363 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING NEAR AND TO THE
WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 291644Z AMSR2 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION TIGHTLY WRAPPING AROUND
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS DETERMINED WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE. ALTHOUGH RECENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW REMAIN
AT T1.5, THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON
INCREASING AND PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION CO-LOCATED WITH THE LLCC.
THE EARLIER 291318Z ASCAT PASS WITH 25 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTION INCREASING AND PERSISTING FOR
SEVERAL HOURS ALSO SUPPORTS THIS ASSESSMENT. THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN
IS GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED AND IS SUPPORTED BY GOOD RADIAL
OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS WEST OF THE LLCC
DUE TO LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 15 TO 20
KNOTS. THE SHEAR IS INDUCED BY A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST, WHICH IS ALSO STEERING 06W TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 06W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY
INTENSIFY AS ITS CONVECTION GRADUALLY ORGANIZES OVER WARM SSTS AND
UNDER A RELATIVELY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. BY TAU 36, TD
06W IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH LUZON AS A TYPHOON, WITH A PAUSE IN ITS
INTENSIFICATION UNTIL TAU 48 WHEN IT EMERGES OVER THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA. THE CYCLONE SHOULD THEN TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IN
RESPONSE TO A RIDGE THAT PERSISTS TO THE NORTH OVER THE EAST CHINA
SEA.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TD 06W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD HONG KONG. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION, AND
PEAK INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO BE REACHED AROUND TAU 72 PRIOR TO
SECOND LANDFALL OVER CHINA, FOLLOWED BY RAPID WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
INLAND. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN UNUSUALLY TIGHT AGREEMENT,
THEREBY SUPPORTING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL JTWC TRACK
FORECAST.//
NNNN
附图:
环境分析(点击放大)

图片:1393467_0858160.jpg


路径与强度预测

图片:wp0616 20160729 1800Z.gif

[颱風巨爵于2016-07-30 20:27编辑了帖子]
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egthart12345
超强台风
超强台风
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发布于:2016-07-30 11:02
06W JTWC预报理由翻译帖 #3 - 7月30日11时(300300Z)
1、  供气象从业人员使用。
2、  六小时总结与分析。
热带低压06WSIX)位于菲律宾马尼拉东南偏东约364海里,过去六小时以9节的速度向北移动。动态色调强化红外线卫星图像显示过去六小时覆盖在爆发对流的部分外露的低层环流中心加速向北移动。基于裸露的低层环流中心,我们对初始定位信心较高。30节的初始强度评价是基于来自所有机构T1.5T2.02530节)的现时强度的客观德沃夏克估值。海表温度非常高(接近31度),而且垂直型风切(约510节)在过去6小时有所下降。当前的高层流出也支持其进一步发展。位于其东侧的中层副热带高压目前正转向热带低压06W北侧。
3、  预报理由。
A.      预报哲理基础与上次的预测推理信息不变。
B.      由于副热带高压脊转向系统的东北方,热带低压06W有望在接下来的1224小时里向西北方向移动。在整个预测期内海表温度将保持良好且流出情况有望改善。36小时内有望稳定增强,使热带低压06W逼近台风强度。36小时与48小时间与吕宋岛的陆地作用限制了其进一步增强的潜力。然而,在48小时至72小时间由于进入了南海,系统有望保持良好的组织。
C.过了72小时,环境条件仍将保持良好,支持了系统的另一段稳定加强期。在72小时左右,热带低压06W有望在香港附近登陆。动态模式指导取得非常紧密的共识,且预报路径与多种模式取得共识,所以对路径预报有较高的信心。

WDPN31 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING
NR 03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 364 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION THAT HAS ACCELERATED TO THE NORTH
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION DUE TO THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
ALL AGENCIES REPORTING CURRENT INTENSITIES BETWEEN T1.5 AND T2.0 (25
TO 30 KNOTS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM NEAR 31
CELSIUS, AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS DECREASED IN THE LAST SIX HOURS
(APPROXIMATELY 5 TO 10 KNOTS). DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW ALOFT IS ALSO
PRESENT SUPPORTING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE EAST IS CURRENTLY STEERING TD 06W TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD05W IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS AS THE STEERING RIDGE ADVANCES INTO A REGION NORTHEAST
OF THE SYSTEM. SSTS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD AND OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE. A PERIOD OF STEADY
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TAU 36, ALLOWING TD 06W TO
APPROACH TYPHOON STRENGTH. LAND INTERACTION WITH LUZON IS EXPECTED
SOMETIME BETWEEN TAU 36 AND 48 LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS
ORGANIZATION RELATIVELY WELL AS IT ENTERS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA FROM
TAU 48 TO 72.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE,
SUPPORTING ANOTHER PERIOD OF STEADY INTENSIFICATION. TD 06W IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR HONG KONG AROUND TAU 72. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT, AND THE FORECAST TRACK IS
PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, GIVING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

图片:wp0616.gif

[颱風巨爵于2016-07-30 12:25编辑了帖子]
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  • luhang
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tyfans
强热带风暴
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发布于:2016-07-30 11:37
06W JTWC预报理由翻译帖 - 7月30日17时(300900Z)
1、供气象专家使用。
2、近6小时总结与分析:
热带低压(TD)06W(SIX)目前位于菲律宾马尼拉以东318海里的太平洋洋面上。在过去的6个小时内,以18节的移动速度往西北偏北方向移动。动态的多光谱卫星图像显示,扩大的深对流掩盖了部分外露的、明显的低层环流中心。一幅协调世界时间为30日7时36分,频率为370亿赫兹的特种微波探测彩色(color)图像显示,改善的对流云带环绕在弱定义中心的北半圈。基于德法分析估值T2.0(30节)~T2.5(35节),当前强度评定为30节。总的来说,温暖的表层海水温度(30~31摄氏度)、高海洋热含量(OHC)值、低等垂直风切变以及良好的流出。目前热带低压06W正沿着低层副热带高压脊的西缘往西北偏北方方向移动。
3、预报理由。
A.以先前的预测推理信息,预报哲学基础基本不变。
B.未来12小时内,热带低压05W将从受太平洋副热带高压影响逐渐过渡到由中国东海的深高压脊影响,转为向西北方向移动。12小时后,该系统将沿着高压脊南缘趋向香港一带。由于中纬度的短波槽强度较弱,位于中国东海的较为强大的高压脊控制区域有望在未来72小时内扩大至蒙古。动态模型指导仍然与实际行径保持一致,但只是偏南些,因此,联合台风警报中心的路径预测有很高的信心。预计有利的环境条件仍将保持,因此该系统强度有望在未来48小时达到75节,以及在未来72小时靠近香港一带时有更好的峰值强度。
C.再往更后的时间看,热带低压06W将继续西行,强度迅速消减,在未来120小时内在中国消散。

WDPN31 PGTW 300900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING
NR 04//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 06W (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 318 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 18
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH EXPANDING DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE CENTER. A
300736Z SSMIS 37GHZ COLOR IMAGE DEPICTS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING
OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A WEAKLY-DEFINED CENTER.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.0 (30 KNOTS) TO T2.5 (35 KNOTS).
OVERALL, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE WITH WARM SST (30
TO 31C), HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
GOOD DIFFLUENCE. TD 06W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR).  
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 05W IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD BY TAU 12 AS IT
BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP STR
ENTRENCHED OVER EASTERN CHINA. AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD HONG KONG AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THE STR OVER EASTERN CHINA IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN STRONG THROUGH TAU 72 DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG HIGH
OVER MONGOLIA AND LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS
POSITIONED NEAR BUT JUST SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE THEREFORE THE SYSTEM
SHOULD INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS BY TAU 48 AND
PERHAPS HIGHER BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL NEAR HONG KONG BY TAU 72.  
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TD 06W SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT
TRACKS WESTWARD INTO CHINA AND WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 120.//
NNNN

附图:

图片:1393467_1652280.jpg

图片:1393467_1908520.jpg

图片:1393467_1911130.gif

[tyfans于2016-07-31 08:18编辑了帖子]
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  • luhang
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    2016-08-07 10:42
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颱風巨爵
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
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发布于:2016-07-30 11:46
06W 預報理由翻譯帖 #5 — 七月三十日廿三時(301500Z)
1. 供氣象從業員使用
2. 六小時總結與分析:
熱帶風暴06W(妮妲)集結在菲律賓馬尼拉之東北偏東約258海里,過去六小時以19節向西北移動。動態色調強化紅外線衛星圖像顯示一個整合中的低層環流中心及其有所改善的深層對流雲帶捲入一個中心密集雲層區的特徵之中。一幅協調世界時30日10時09分,頻率為890億赫兹的進階微波探空儀(Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit - AMSU)圖像顯示該低層環流中心正變得更對稱和明確。基於T2.5(35節)至T3.0(45節)德沃夏克強度估值之平均數,現時強度被定在40節。總體而言,環境條件看來有利,温暖的海表温度達攝氏30至31度,海洋熱含量高,垂直風切變低而流出亦好。熱帶風暴06W正沿著低層副熱帶高壓脊之西緣移動。

3. 預報理由
A. 預報基礎對比上次沒有改變。
B. 預計熱帶風暴06W開始受到駛流引導轉換至紮基於中國東部上空的一道深厚副熱帶高壓脊影響,其將向西北至西北偏西移動。預測系統沿著副熱帶高壓脊南緣移動,會趨近香港。由於蒙古上空存在一強盛高壓區而中緯度沒有任何顯著的短波槽出現,預期72小時內中國東部上空的副熱帶高壓脊會維持強勢。持續預報維持緊密共識,因此聯合颱風警報中心的路徑預測信心頗高,處於模式共識的稍南。由於預期環境條件會維持有利,系統在未來36小時前將增強至75節的強度巔峰,於60小時後登陸香港附近前或許能達到更強。

C. 在預報延伸時段,熱帶風暴06W會在西移進入中國期間急速減弱,並於未來96小時內消散。

(香港/ 北京時間為協調世界時加八小時)

图片:wp0616.gif

图片:06W_301200sair.jpg

图片:06W EIR.gif

WDPN31 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (NIDA) WARNING
NR 05//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (NIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 258 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 19
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST FEATURE. A 301009Z AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE INDICATES THAT THE LLCC
IS BECOMING MORE SYMMETRIC AND DEFINED. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM T2.5 (35 KNOTS) TO T3.0 (45 KNOTS). OVERALL, ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE WITH WARM SST (30 TO 31C), HIGH OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT VALUES, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE. TS 06W IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).  
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 05W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AS IT BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP STR
ENTRENCHED OVER EASTERN CHINA. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEAR
HONG KONG AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THE STR OVER EASTERN CHINA IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN STRONG THROUGH TAU 72 DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG HIGH
OVER MONGOLIA AND LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS
POSITIONED NEAR BUT JUST SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE THEREFORE THE SYSTEM
SHOULD INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS BY TAU 36 AND
PERHAPS HIGHER BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL NEAR HONG KONG BY TAU 60.  
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 06W SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT
TRACKS WESTWARD INTO CHINA AND WILL DISSIPATE NEAR TAU 96.//
NNNN
[颱風巨爵于2016-07-31 02:32编辑了帖子]

图片

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  • luhang
    贡献值 9
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    2016-08-07 10:42
一上高樓萬里愁,蒹葭楊柳似汀洲。溪雲初起日沉閣,山雨欲來風滿樓。
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tyfans
强热带风暴
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发布于:2016-07-31 06:28
06W JTWC预报理由翻译帖 - 7月31日5时(302100Z)
1、供气象专家使用。
2、近6小时总结与分析:
热带风暴06W(妮妲)目前集结在菲律宾马尼拉东北偏东方214海里的洋面上。在过去的6小时内,以8节的速度向西北偏西方向移动。动态的色调强化红外云图显示,深厚爆发的中心对流紧密地掩盖住低层环流中心(LLCC)。基于协调世界时为30日17时29分的、频率为37亿赫兹的高级微波辐射扫描仪的图像显示的,改善的对流待紧密地包裹着低层环流中心(LLCC),我们对初始位置的认定有很大把握。最近的其他微波图像也证实了这个位置,一幅世界协调时为30日15时01分、频率为37亿赫兹的GMI微波成像仪图像显示,在过去的3小时内,这个位置很少移动。东部的副热带高压脊将使台风妮妲往西北偏北移动后转向,逐渐过渡到受北部的深厚高压脊影响;同时负责观察发现,在过去的24小时内,行径不稳定、移速也减缓。当前强度所评估的45节,是基于从多个机构的自动化和客观的德沃夏克修正。附近的垂直风切有5~10节,大量的海洋热含量(OHC)超过30℃,以及附近的一个反气旋的形成,环境正在变得越来越有利。
3、预报理由。
A.以上一次的预测推理信息,不改变预测哲学。
B.预计,未来12小时,热带风暴06W转受北部高压脊影响,加速地往西北方向移动。在未来18小时登陆吕宋岛之前,强度预计可达60节。与吕宋岛海岸线和南中国海的相互作用下,该系统将保持其良好的结。在折往西北方向移动时,强度可增强至75节。预计在未来60小时内靠近香港一带。
C.展望到未来96小时,热带低压06W西行进入中国,强度迅速消减并在此时趋于消散。过去的24小时里,在高压脊影响下往西北移动,趋于香港一带,与动态模式指导保持一致。短期内短期路径预测过程中存在有细微的差别是,出现了意想不到的怪异路径。预测路径附近放置多模式,严格的模式协议方案,路径预测有很高信心。

WDPN31 PGTW 302100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING
NR 06//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 06W (NIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 214 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION FORMING A DENSE
OVERCAST OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 301729Z
AMSR2 37 GHZ IMAGE SHOWING IMPROVING CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
TIGHTLY INTO THE LLCC. OTHER RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE
POSITION AND A 301501Z GMI 37 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT
IN THE LAST 3 HOURS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST PREVIOUSLY
STEERING TS 06W TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS TRANSITIONING TO A WELL
ESTABLISHED DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH; RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
RECENT DEACCELERATION AND ERRATIC TRACK OBSERVED OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON
BOTH AUTOMATED AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK FIXES FROM MULTIPLE AGENCIES.
THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE WITH WIND SHEAR
VALUES NEAR 5 TO 10 KNOTS, SSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 CELSIUS WITH
SUBSTANTIAL OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT, AND A NEAR ANTICYCLONE FORMING
OVER THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 06W IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NORTHWESTWARD IN THE NEXT 12
HOURS AS THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH REORIENTS. INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED TO REACH 60 KNOTS BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OVER LUZON AROUND
TAU 18. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS STRUCTURE FAIRLY WELL
AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE COASTLINE OF LUZON AND RESURFACES OVER
WATER IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.  ANOTHER PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED AS TS 06W CONTINUES ON ITS NORTHWESTWARD TRACK, PEAKING AT
75 KNOTS. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED AROUND TAU 60 NEAR HONG KONG.  
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TD 06W SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT
TRACKS WESTWARD INTO CHINA AND WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT AND HAS BEEN OVER THE LAST
24 HOURS SHOWING A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE ANCHORED OVER CHINA, AND EACH SOLUTION SHOWING
LANDFALL NEAR HONG KONG. SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE SHORT-TERM
FORECAST TRACK ARE DUE TO THE UNEXPECTED ERRATIC TRACK OBSERVED OVER
THE LAST 24 HOURS AS THE PRIMARY STEERING RIDGE TRANSITIONS. THE
FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK. DUE
TO THE  TIGHT AGREEMENT OF MODEL SOLUTIONS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
附图:

图片:1393467_0821300.gif

图片:1393467_0821420.jpg

[颱風巨爵于2016-07-31 11:46编辑了帖子]
1条评分, 贡献值 +7
  • luhang
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    2016-08-07 10:43
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风王2012
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发布于:2016-07-31 11:05
06W预报理由翻译帖 #07 07月31日11时 (073103Z)
1. 供专业气象人员分析
2. 六小时总结与分析
热带风暴06W(妮妲),目前正位于菲律宾马尼拉东北方约200海里处,在过去6小时内其以每小时10节的速度向西北方向移动。动画多光谱卫星图像显示其中心附近爆发的环流逐渐形成中心密集云区(CDO)包裹住底层环流中心(LLCC)。我们对当前定位具有较高的信心是基于北京时间31日6时41分的SSMIS 91 GHZ图像,图像显示其西侧的深对流紧密包裹底层环流中心西侧。目前06W的对流活动和风速正在受到吕宋东部的地形影响。我们将当前强度定为55节是基于所有德法机构客观评价出的T3.5(55节)。06W目前转向是由于逐渐过渡至其北侧的副热带高压脊,这一转向导致06W在过去12小时内移速放缓。最近的数据显示06W已经开始加速,这表明副热带高压脊对其的引导占主要地位。其附近的环境对其发展也十分有利,这包括5-10节的垂直风切变,30℃以上的海温,较高的海洋热焓量,以及一个在这附近形成的反气旋系统。
3. 预报理由
A. 预报理由无明显改变。
B. 由于副热带高压脊向北调整,未来12小时内热带风暴06W将继续加速向西北方向移动。良好的环境将使其增强,但这种增强十分有限,直到其在未来18小时内绕过菲律宾吕宋岛北部海岸。系统将保持相当好的形态进入中国南海并并进一步加强。热带风暴06W将继续向西北偏西方向移动直到其在未来48小时后在香港附近登陆。
C. 在延伸预报期内,热带风暴06W将由于向西移动穿过中国而迅速减弱,并于96小时后消散。过去24小时内,数值模型对系统受副热带高压脊影响向西北偏西方向移动这一预测始终联系紧密,目前路径预测也与多个数值模型达成共识。鉴于此,我们对预报的信心颇高。

图片:wp0616.gif


JTWC 31日8时预报图

图片:06W_310000sams.jpg


JTWC 31日8时MSI图像

图片:20160730_2241_f18_x_91h_1deg_06WNIDA_45kts-989mb-162N-1243E_92pc.jpg


31日6时41分的SSMIS 91 GHZ扫描图像

图片:QQ浏览器截屏未命名.png


早上6时33分06W附近海域SST图像

图片:wgmssht.GIF


31日8时垂直风切变大小图像

图片:up50_2016073100.png


31日8时 500Hpa形势图
WDPN31 PGTW 310300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (SIX) WARNING
NR 07//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 06W (NIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM NORTHEAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION FORMING A COLD DENSE
OVERCAST OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 302241Z
SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE SHOWING A STRONG BAND OF CONVECTION ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE LLCC. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY AND WIND SPEEDS ARE CURRENTLY BEING INFLUENCED BY
INTERACTION WITH THE TOPOGRAPHIC FEATURES OF EASTERN LUZON. THE
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON OBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES REPORTING T3.5 (55 KNOTS). THE STEERING
MECHANISM FOR TS 06W IS CURRENTLY TRANSITIONING TO A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH, AND THIS TRANSITION IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
DECREASE IN TRACK SPEED OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. RECENT DATA SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN ACCELERATING, SUGGESTING THE RIDGE IS BEGINNING
TO TAKE HOLD. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH WIND SHEAR VALUES
NEAR 5 TO 10 KNOTS, SSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 CELSIUS WITH SUBSTANTIAL
OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT, AND A NEAR ANTICYCLONE FORMING OVER THE
SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 06W WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH REORIENTS.
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DUE TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT,
BUT INTENSIFICATION WILL BE LIMITED AS THE SYSTEM SKIRTS THE
COASTLINE OF NORTHERN LUZON THROUGH TAU 18. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO MAINTAIN ITS STRUCTURE FAIRLY WELL AS IT RESURFACES OVER WATER IN
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED. TS 06W
WILL CONTINUE ITS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL
NEAR HONG KONG AROUND TAU 48.  
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 06W SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT
TRACKS WESTWARD INTO CHINA, DISSIPATING BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT AND HAS BEEN OVER THE LAST
24 HOURS SHOWING THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE ANCHORED OVER CHINA
INFLUENCING A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED
NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK, AND DUE TO THE TIGHT AGREEMENT
OF MODEL SOLUTIONS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
[风王2012于2016-07-31 11:59编辑了帖子]
1条评分, 贡献值 +9
  • luhang
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    2016-08-07 10:44
DK
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颱風巨爵
论坛版主-副热带高压
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发布于:2016-07-31 11:43
06W 預報理由翻譯帖 #8 — 七月三十一日十七時(310900Z)
1. 供氣象從業員使用
2. 六小時總結與分析:
颱風06W(妮妲)集結在菲律賓馬尼拉之東北偏北約231海里,過去六小時以13節向西北移動。動態多頻衛星圖像顯示一個整合中的低層環流中心及其螺旋雲帶緊密捲入一個明確的中心,而該中心目前位於呂宋東北角上空。一幅協調世界時31日03時29分,頻率為360億赫兹的「全球變化觀測任務」(Global Change Observation Mission - GCOM)衛星圖像顯示有所改善的雲帶捲入一個微波風眼特徵之中;現時定位是基於上圖以及多頻衛星圖像,對此有高度信心。在協調世界時31日06時00分,颱風06W集結在阿帕里以東約45海里,該市錄得東北偏北風20節,氣壓989.3毫巴。現時強度定在65節,是基於來自關島和東京機構同樣達T4.0(65節)的德沃夏克估值。颱風06W正轉換駛流引導至來自紮基於中國東部和東海上空的一道副熱帶高壓脊之影響。總體而言,環境條件有利,垂直風切變低,流出良好,海表温度亦温暖。

3. 預報理由
A. 預報基礎對比上次沒有改變。
B. 在紮基於中國東部上空的一道深厚副熱帶高壓脊駛流影響下,預測颱風06W將向西北偏西移動。預測系統沿著此副熱帶高壓脊南緣移動,會趨近香港。由於蒙古上空存在一強盛高壓區而中緯度沒有任何顯著的短波槽出現,預期72小時內中國東部上空的副熱帶高壓脊會維持強勢。持續預報維持緊密共識,因此聯合颱風警報中心的路徑預測有高度信心,並接近多模式的共識。由於預期環境條件會維持有利,系統在未來36小時前將增強至85節的強度巔峰,於42小時後登陸香港附近前或許能達到更強。

C. 在預報延伸時段,颱風06W會在西移進入中國期間急速減弱,並於未來96小時內消散。

(香港/ 北京時間為協調世界時加八小時)

图片:wp0616.gif

图片:06W_310600sams.jpg


图片:rgb_lalo-animated2.gif

图片:bd_lalo-animated2.gif

图片:avn_lalo-animated2.gif


图片:20160731.0329.gcomw1.x.36h.06WNIDA.60kts-978mb-180N-1226E.57pc.jpg



Weather Underground 網上 Aparri 的觀測數據:
(注意:此站並不一定是報文中提到的氣象站,相關數據僅供参考之用)

图片:histGraphAll.gif



Google 地圖上 Aparri 的位置:

图片:Aparri.png


WDPN31 PGTW 310900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 06W (NIDA) WARNING NR 08//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 06W (NIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 231 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER,
WHICH IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHEAST TIP OF LUZON. A
310329Z GCOM 36GHZ IMAGE SHOWS IMPROVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE AND, ALONG WITH MSI, SUPPORTS THE CURRENT
POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. AT 31/0600Z, TY 06W WAS LOCATED ABOUT
45NM EAST OF APARRI, WHICH IS REPORTING NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT
20 KNOTS WITH SLP NEAR 989.3MB. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT
65 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM BOTH PGTW
AND RJTD. TY 06W IS CURRENTLY TRANSITIONING TO THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED OVER EASTERN
CHINA AND THE EAST CHINA SEA. OVERALL, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD OUTFLOW AND WARM SST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 06W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP STR ENTRENCHED OVER EASTERN CHINA.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEAR HONG KONG AS IT TRACKS ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS STR. THE STR OVER EASTERN CHINA IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG THROUGH TAU 72 DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A
STRONG HIGH OVER MONGOLIA AND LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MIDLATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK,
WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE THEREFORE
THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS BY TAU
36 AND PERHAPS HIGHER BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL NEAR HONG KONG BY TAU
42.  
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY 06W WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT
TRACKS WESTWARD INTO CHINA AND WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 96.//
NNNN
[颱風巨爵于2016-07-31 23:38编辑了帖子]

图片

1条评分, 贡献值 +9
  • luhang
    贡献值 9
    优秀帖
    2016-08-07 10:45
一上高樓萬里愁,蒹葭楊柳似汀洲。溪雲初起日沉閣,山雨欲來風滿樓。
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