meow
世纪风王
世纪风王
  • 注册日期2011-09-08
  • 最后登录2018-10-18
  • 粉丝452
  • 关注38
  • 发帖数17791
  • 来自
阅读:1691回复:16

[SH(16-17)]西澳热带低压90S - 陆上季风低压

楼主#
更多 发布于:2016-12-18 16:44

图片:20161218.0740.himawari-8.ircolor.90S.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.11S.129E.100pc.jpg


扫描二维码,查看更多台风内容!
[meow于2016-12-24 18:12编辑了帖子]
2条评分, 金钱 +3 威望 +3
喜欢0 评分2
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
meow
世纪风王
世纪风王
  • 注册日期2011-09-08
  • 最后登录2018-10-18
  • 粉丝452
  • 关注38
  • 发帖数17791
  • 来自
1楼#
发布于:2016-12-18 16:50
数值基本预报沿着澳大利亚海岸线发展,惟具体时间和强度难以评估。
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
刚打酱油回来
超强台风
超强台风
  • 注册日期2012-11-16
  • 最后登录2018-10-13
  • 粉丝200
  • 关注6
  • 发帖数6338
  • 来自
2楼#
发布于:2016-12-18 17:41
IDW10800
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:14 pm WST on Sunday 18 December 2016
for the period until midnight WST Wednesday 21 December 2016.

Existing Cyclones in the  Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:  

The monsoon trough is strengthening over northern Australia. A tropical low is
forming in the Afafura Sea, north of the Tiwi Islands. The low is forecast to
develop further in the Timor Sea during Monday and Tuesday before tracking to
the southwest near or alongside the west Kimberley coastline on Wednesday and
Thursday. The likelihood of this system developing into a tropical cyclone
increases late on Tuesday or on Wednesday.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
                                   Monday: Very Low
                                   Tuesday: Low
                                   Wednesday: Moderate

The monsoon trough extends from the central Indian Ocean into the Timor Sea. A
weak tropical low lies in the trough near 12.5S 109E, east southeast of
Christmas Island. The low is unlikely to develop into a tropical cyclone.
Another low is situated within the monsoon trough near 13.5S 114.4E and is near
stationary. This system may strengthen over the next couple of days whilst
remaining fairly slow moving over open waters well north of Western Australia.
There is some uncertainty regarding it's movement and intensity early this week
however, beyond Wednesday it is expected to encounter less favourable conditions
for development. It is unlikely to have any impact on the Western Australian
mainland.

Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
                                   Monday: Very Low
                                   Tuesday: Low
                                   Wednesday: Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:     less than 5%                 Low:          5% to 20%
Moderate:     20 to 50%                    High:         Over 50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and south of 10S.
[刚打酱油回来于2016-12-19 06:40编辑了帖子]
人民的名义
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
可靠的熊熊熊熊
积雨云
积雨云
  • 注册日期2016-12-18
  • 最后登录2016-12-26
  • 粉丝4
  • 关注16
  • 发帖数11
  • 来自
3楼#
发布于:2016-12-18 21:08
请问:水汽怎样才能发帖
2条评分, 威望 -1 金钱 -1
  • 格物致知
    威望 -1
    别用这种方式刷分了,温带版的我已经删了
    2016-12-18 21:12
  • 格物致知
    金钱 -1
    这种贴发的适可而止吧
    2016-12-18 21:11
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分(2)
meow
世纪风王
世纪风王
  • 注册日期2011-09-08
  • 最后登录2018-10-18
  • 粉丝452
  • 关注38
  • 发帖数17791
  • 来自
4楼#
发布于:2016-12-19 02:35
ECMWF预测在海上时间比较长,有望二级热带气旋,而GFS预测在陆上时间长,命名就悬了。
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
刚打酱油回来
超强台风
超强台风
  • 注册日期2012-11-16
  • 最后登录2018-10-13
  • 粉丝200
  • 关注6
  • 发帖数6338
  • 来自
5楼#
发布于:2016-12-19 14:48
Indonesian Agency for Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics
Jakarta Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC)

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Southern Indonesia area
Issued Monday, December 19th 2016 08.40 Western Indonesia Time

Current Tropical Cyclone in the Southern Indonesia area:
None.

Tropical cyclone development possibility:
Suspect area with minimum pressure 1005 mb is observed in Timor Sea near 11-12 S 128 E, about east-southeast of Kupang, and moving southwestward

Possibility to develop into tropical cyclone:
Tuesday (tomorrow) : medium possibility
Wednesday (tomorrow +1): medium possibility
Thursday (tomorrow +2) : large possibility

Note:
Small possibility means possibility for the suspect area to develop into tropical cyclone is less than 10%.
Medium possibility means possibility for the suspect area to develop into tropical cyclone is about 20%-40%.
Large possibility means possibility for the suspect area to develop into tropical cyclone is more than 50%.

Southern Indonesia area is area within equator to 11 S and 90 to 141 E.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:07 pm WST on Monday 19 December 2016
for the period until midnight WST Thursday 22 December 2016.

Potential Cyclones:

The monsoon trough is strengthening over northern Australia. A tropical low is forming in the Timor Sea, west of the Tiwi Islands. The low is forecast to develop further and move southwest towards the north Kimberley coast on Tuesday evening or Wednesday. The likelihood of this system developing into a tropical cyclone increases late on Tuesday. Although the most likely path from Wednesday is to remain over land through the western Kimberley, if the low was to move off the coast then the likelihood of tropical cyclone development increases.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Tuesday:Low
Wednesday:Moderate
Thursday:Moderate
[iam最小值于2016-12-19 17:14编辑了帖子]
人民的名义
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
suydb
强热带风暴
强热带风暴
  • 注册日期2013-11-19
  • 最后登录2018-10-17
  • 粉丝11
  • 关注2
  • 发帖数127
  • 来自
6楼#
发布于:2016-12-19 18:04
LOW
ABIO10 PGTW 190930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/190930Z-191800ZDEC2016//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/190851ZDEC2016//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
     (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.7S 115.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.0S 115.2E, APPROXIMATELY
326 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
LLCC. A 190657Z SSMI 85 GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE DEPICTS MULTIPLE
CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED BUT
DEFINED CENTER. A 190118Z ASCAT PASS DISPLAYED A BAND OF 25-30 KNOT
WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A ROBUST
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND AN IMPROVING POLEWARD CHANNEL INTO
THE WESTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES AND SST 29-30C. GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY TRACK OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS WITH
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE
REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 190900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
12.6S 129.5E, APPROXIMATELY 75 NM WEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA.  
ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY, RADAR IMAGERY, AND A
182214Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION
AROUND A VERY BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM DARWIN AIRPORT INDICATE A SLP NEAR 1002 MB WITH A
3-4 MB TWENTY-FOUR HOUR PRESSURE DECREASE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE MARGINAL DUE TO MODERATE TO HIGH (25-30 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE JOSEPH BONAPARTE GULF WITH SLOW
DEVELOPMENT AS LAND INTERACTION AND VWS DECREASE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: AREA IN 2.B.(1) IS UPGRADED TO HIGH
AND ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2).//
NNNN
[suydb于2016-12-19 18:05编辑了帖子]
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
suydb
强热带风暴
强热带风暴
  • 注册日期2013-11-19
  • 最后登录2018-10-17
  • 粉丝11
  • 关注2
  • 发帖数127
  • 来自
7楼#
发布于:2016-12-19 18:08
南半球好热闹
回复(0) 喜欢(1)     评分
刚打酱油回来
超强台风
超强台风
  • 注册日期2012-11-16
  • 最后登录2018-10-13
  • 粉丝200
  • 关注6
  • 发帖数6338
  • 来自
8楼#
发布于:2016-12-20 08:40
IDD20042
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for DAMAGING WINDS and HEAVY RAINFALL
For people in the
Daly,
Tiwi and parts of the
Arnhem and
Gregory districts.
Issued at 5:04 am Tuesday, 20 December 2016.
WEATHER SITUATION:
A developing tropical low 1000 hPa in the Timor Sea west of Bathurst Island, about 100 kilometres west northwest of Darwin, is combining with an active monsoon to produce rain, squally showers and thunderstorms.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS of around 90 km/h are forecast later today and on Wednesday around the Tiwi, Daly and northern Gregory Districts.
HEAVY RAIN which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is likely to affect the Tiwi, Daly, northwest Arnhem and northern Gregory Districts.
Locations which may be affected include Darwin, Jabiru, Maningrida, Batchelor, Wadeye, Wurrumiyanga and Nauiyu.
The Northern Territory Emergency Service advises that people should:
* secure loose outside objects and seek shelter when conditions deteriorate
* pull over if it is raining heavily and you cannot see, park with your hazard lights on until the rain clears
* avoid driving into water of unknown depth and current
* create your own sandbags if there is flooding, by using pillow cases or shopping bags filled with sand and place them around doorways to protect your home
* stay away from flooded drains, rivers, streams and waterways
* ensure pets and animals are safe
* be prepared in case of power outages, have an emergency kit with a radio, torch, spare batteries and first aid kit
* for emergency help in floods, storms and cyclones, contact the NTES on 132 500. For more safety tips visit www.securent.nt.gov.au
The next Severe Weather Warning will be issued by 11:00 am ACST Tuesday.
Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 214. The Bureau and Northern Territory Emergency Service would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.
人民的名义
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
刚打酱油回来
超强台风
超强台风
  • 注册日期2012-11-16
  • 最后登录2018-10-13
  • 粉丝200
  • 关注6
  • 发帖数6338
  • 来自
9楼#
发布于:2016-12-21 05:03
IDW20032
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia Regional Office

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for DAMAGING WINDS and HEAVY RAINFALL
For people in parts of the
Kimberley district.
Issued at 4:27 am Wednesday, 21 December 2016.
WEATHER SITUATION:
A tropical low 995 hPa has rapidly moved south overnight and is now located over land just across the NT/WA border, around 95km to the north-northeast of the Wyndham. The tropical low is combining with an active monsoon to produce rain, and squally showers and thunderstorms. The low is forecast to track to slowly to the southwest over the coming days.
DAMAGING WINDS with gusts to 90 kilometres per hour and HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING are possible during Wednesday in northern and eastern parts of the Kimberley District. Winds are expected to gradually ease later today.
A Flood Watch has also been issued for the Kimberley District. For further details please refer to http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/.
Locations which may be affected include Kununurra, Wyndham, Kalumburu, Kuri Bay, Lake Argyle, Mitchell Plateau, Mount Barnett, Troughton Island, and Warmun.
The Department of Fire and Emergency Services advises that people should:
* If outside find safe shelter away from trees, power lines, storm water drains and streams.
* Close your curtains and blinds, and stay inside away from windows.
* Unplug electrical appliances and do not use land line telephones if there is lightning.
* If boating, swimming or surfing leave the water.
* Be alert and watch for hazards on the road such as fallen power lines and loose debris.
* Keep away from flooded drains, rivers, streams and waterways.
* Be careful of fallen trees, damaged buildings and debris.
* Be careful of fallen power lines. They are dangerous and should always be treated as live.
* Assess your home, car and property for damage.
* If damage has occurred take photos and contact your insurance company to organise permanent repairs.
* If your home or property has significant damage, like a badly damaged roof or flooding, call the SES on 132 500.
The next Severe Weather Warning will be issued by 11:00 am AWST Wednesday.
Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 223. The Bureau and Department of Fire and Emergency Services would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.

图片:Wyndham_Airport.png




TXXS23 KNES 201804
TCSSIO
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90S)
B.  20/1730Z
C.  14.4S
D.  128.6E
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-8
F.  T2.0/2.0/D1.0/12HRS
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR
H.  REMARKS...>2/10 BANDING FOR DT=2.0. MET=1.5. PT=2.0. FT IS BASED
ON DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL

...LEE


图片:bd_lalo-animated.gif


TPXS11 PGTW 202209
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90S (NW AUSTRAILA)
B. 20/2140Z
C. 15.25S
D. 128.04E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES UNAVAILABLE DUE TO
LLCC OVER LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

   DREW
[刚打酱油回来于2016-12-21 07:23编辑了帖子]
人民的名义
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
上一页
游客

返回顶部