temperature
资深会员-热带辐合带
资深会员-热带辐合带
  • 注册日期2006-05-12
  • 最后登录2018-10-22
  • 粉丝83
  • 关注27
  • 发帖数3530
  • 来自
阅读:1099回复:3

[信息交流]NWS今年五月起*可能*将对近岸有威胁的扰动编号并发报

楼主#
更多 发布于:2017-03-21 02:23
看了一下大概意思是,从今年5月15日起,NWS (包括NHC和CPHC) 将对靠近陆地并构成威胁的可能发展成热带气旋的扰动 (原文是"48小时内可能对陆地造成热带风暴或飓风级别的影响") 直接编号。此扰动会被称为"潜在热带气旋" (Potential Tropical Cyclone),并且按照热带气旋的方式发报,其编号将与正式的热带气旋合并统计 (例如飓风1号->热带低压2号->潜在热带气旋3号->热带风暴4号...)。远离陆地不构成任何威胁(也不引起风暴潮)的热带扰动的处理方式不变。


潜在热带气旋在 Tropical Weather Outlook 上的表示方式是:用x标注定位,上面以数字标注系统编号,x的颜色表示成旋可能(颜色代表的意思和正常的扰动一样),不过不会画出成旋区域以免与报文的路径图混淆。
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/notification/scn17-28potential_tc.htm
Subject: Changing criteria for issuing tropical cyclone watches and warnings
to include certain land-threatening disturbances that are not yet tropical cyclones
effective on or about May 15, 2017

Beginning on or about May 15, 2017, the NWS will have the option to issue
watches, warnings, and graphical and textual advisory products for disturbances
that are not yet tropical cyclones, but which pose the threat of bringing tropical
storm or hurricane conditions to land areas within 48 hours. Under long standing
policy, the NWS has not been permitted to issue a hurricane or tropical storm watch or
warning until after a tropical cyclone had formed. Advances in forecasting over the past
decade now allow the confident prediction of tropical cyclone impacts while these
systems are still in the developmental stage.

For these land-threatening "potential tropical cyclones," the NWS will now
issue the full suite of products that previously has been issued only for ongoing
tropical, subtropical or post-tropical cyclones. In addition, the NWS will begin issuing
watches and warnings for storm surge associated with tropical cyclones threatening
the Atlantic and Gulf coasts of the contiguous United States in 2017 and will have the
ability to issue these watches and warnings for potential tropical cyclones as well. The
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map and Storm Surge Watch/Warning graphic will also
be issued for these systems when appropriate.

Potential tropical cyclones will share the naming conventions currently in place
for tropical and subtropical depressions, with depressions and potential tropical
cyclones being numbered from a single list (e.g., One, Two, Three, ..., Twenty-Three,
etc.). The assigned number will always match the total number of systems (tropical
cyclones, subtropical cyclones, or potential tropical cyclones) that have occurred within
that basin during the season.

For example, if three systems requiring advisories have already formed within a
basin in a given year, the next land-threatening disturbance would be designated
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four. If a potential tropical cyclone becomes a tropical
depression, its numerical designation remains the same (i.e., Potential Tropical Cyclone
Four becomes Tropical Depression Four).

The issuance times for potential tropical cyclone products will be identical to the
standard tropical cyclone product issuance times. NWS products for potential tropical
cyclones will be issued until watches or warnings are discontinued or until the wind
and storm surge, if applicable, threat for land areas sufficiently diminishes, at which
point advisories would be discontinued. If, however, it seems likely that new watches
or warnings would be necessary within a short period of time (e.g., 6-12 hours), then
advisories could continue briefly in the interest of service continuity. Once a system
becomes a tropical cyclone, the normal procedure for discontinuing advisories will
apply.

Potential tropical cyclone advisories will not be issued for systems that pose a threat
only to marine areas. Because NHC and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center will be
issueing their normal graphical products depicting the 5-day forecast track and uncertainty
cone for potential tropical cyclones, the Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook will no longer
display a formation area for these systems to avoid confusion.
[temperature于2017-03-21 21:46编辑了帖子]
喜欢1 评分0

最新喜欢:

约瑟但以理约瑟但以理
从'95Kent开始追风,经历'99寒潮和'05的322飑线——春雨夏风秋干冬寒,岁月悄然已过。
meow
世纪风王
世纪风王
  • 注册日期2011-09-08
  • 最后登录2018-10-22
  • 粉丝452
  • 关注38
  • 发帖数17798
  • 来自
1楼#
发布于:2017-03-21 08:31
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/20170309_pa_2017SeasonChanges.pdf

看了同时间另一篇,还在等待NWS正式批准?
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
回复(2) 喜欢(0)     评分
temperature
资深会员-热带辐合带
资深会员-热带辐合带
  • 注册日期2006-05-12
  • 最后登录2018-10-22
  • 粉丝83
  • 关注27
  • 发帖数3530
  • 来自
2楼#
发布于:2017-03-21 21:52
meow锛歨ttp://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/20170309_pa_2017SeasonChanges.pdf

看了同时间另一篇,还在等待NWS正式批准?
鍥炲埌鍘熷笘
奇怪,文字基本都一样,就是把"5月15日前后开始"改成了"待NWS正式批准"。那还是等正式宣布吧。

里面还说要新增由 NWS 统一发布的 Storm Surge Warning。旧制貌似是由 NWS 地方分局单独发布 Coastal Flood Warning ?
从'95Kent开始追风,经历'99寒潮和'05的322飑线——春雨夏风秋干冬寒,岁月悄然已过。
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
temperature
资深会员-热带辐合带
资深会员-热带辐合带
  • 注册日期2006-05-12
  • 最后登录2018-10-22
  • 粉丝83
  • 关注27
  • 发帖数3530
  • 来自
3楼#
发布于:2017-06-20 08:38
meow锛歨ttp://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/20170309_pa_2017SeasonChanges.pdf

看了同时间另一篇,还在等待NWS正式批准?
鍥炲埌鍘熷笘
新制正式开始实施了,最近两个热带气旋 (02L, 03L) 都是从 TCFA 起开始编号发报的。
从'95Kent开始追风,经历'99寒潮和'05的322飑线——春雨夏风秋干冬寒,岁月悄然已过。
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
游客

返回顶部