颱風巨爵
论坛版主-副热带高压
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[SH(17-18)]南半球各类图像自动更新暨非扰动云团专帖(2017年7月-2018年6月)

楼主#
更多 发布于:2017-06-29 00:00
1、为了方便管理和页面整洁,台风论坛继续坚持一扰动一追击帖的老规矩,在南半球无扰动下请在本帖跟帖讨论。违者:删除或合并。
2、当NRL升格扰动后,会员可重新开新的追击。
3、因EC网站更新,本帖无法提供即时更新的EC预报产品,请前往各数值产品服务网站查询。
注:从2015年起,为与南半球风季相适应,南半球数值预报讨论帖改为每年的7月1日至次年的6月30日,每年一帖,开帖规则同其他数值预报讨论帖。

南印度洋扰动位置直观图


西南太平洋扰动位置直观图


各范围红外光卫星云图:
东半球


印度洋
[颱風巨爵于2017-08-12 22:05编辑了帖子]
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933954933954 追风的小孩追风的小孩
Society is dead, long live society!
是誰令青山也變,變了俗氣的嘴臉?又是誰令碧海也變,變作濁流滔天?
【特輯】 淺談JTWC和預報理由
933954
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1楼#
发布于:2017-06-30 16:18
A weak trough or low lies near the Cocos Islands and has brought heavy rainfall to Cocos. Low is expected to move west during Saturday and Sunday. It is not expected to become a significant system.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Saturday:Very Low
Sunday:Very Low
Monday:Very Low

图片:IDD80100.png

[933954于2017-06-30 16:21编辑了帖子]
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meow
世纪风王
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2楼#
发布于:2017-08-08 12:54
AWIO20 FMEE 071243
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 2017/08/07 AT 1200 UTC
PART1:
WARNING SUMMARY:
Nil.
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:
South-West Indian Ocean basin is in winter pattern with the trade wind flow crossing the equator towards the northern hemisphere, west of 60E and east of 75E. Convective activity is however locally severe especially near 90E north of 10S where it is organized around a broad elongated circulation, benefiting from a good upper divergence. Last satellite observations show the existence within this area, of a low level vortex located at 09Z near 6.0S 90.8E, caught in the global rotation. Last surface observations and ASCAT data depict winds exceeding 20kt in the southern semi-circle. MSLP is estimated around 1006hPa.
During the next days, environmental conditions should remain poorly conducive for further deepening. Although the polar feeding will remain good, equatorial convergence will rapidly disappear. Moreover, a north-north-easterly upper constraint is expected to stay weak to moderate. Finally, while moving west, the environment is likely to become drier. Numerical guidance is in a good agreement with this scenario.
Development of a moderate tropical storm is not expected for the next 5 days.
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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iam最小值
论坛版主-副热带高压
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3楼#
发布于:2017-09-27 13:44
SSD编了一个扰动

DATE: 2017/09/26 AT 1200 UTC

PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:

Deep convective activity remains mainly located close to a low pressure area monitored since this
week-end and positioned today in between the Chagos archipelago and the Seychelles archipelago.
At 10 UTC, the system is centered near 6.1°S and 65°E about 1070 km east-south-east of Mahé.
Following a nighttime convective burst, the low level vorticity has increased today (confirmed by
850 hPa vorticity analysis from CIMSS). However, thunderstorm activity remains very fluctuating
and limited in surface coverage. MSLP is estimated at 1007 hPa and winds are still weak in the 10-
20 kt range, reaching locally 25 kt in the southwestern quadrant.

The environment is characterized for the favorable aspects by, 27-28°C SST, a lower windshear
compared to yesterday and good low level convergence over the tradewinds side. Less favorable
factors are: very dry mid-level environment in all quadrants except the south-east and poor low
level equatorial inflow.

From tomorrow up to the end of the week, stronger upper level easterlies are expected to increased
north-easterly shear that should be partly offset by an increase in polewards upper level divergence.
Other environmental factors are expected to remain more or less the same. Therefore and even if
this low has maintained longer than initially expected, there is still very little chance for further
significant intensification during the next few days. It should however maintain and slowly drift
close to the Seychelles archipelago by the end of the week.

Development of a moderate tropical storm is not expected for the next 5 days.

图片:ir0-lalo.gif

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meow
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4楼#
发布于:2017-10-03 16:26
疑似副热带系统
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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933954
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5楼#
发布于:2017-11-11 22:27
A weak tropical low is situated in a trough to the north of the Cocos Islands and north of 10S. The system is forecast to move slowly westwards over the next few days and is unlikely to move into the Western Region.

There are other significant tropical lows in the Western Region at present and none are expected to develop over the next three days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Sunday:
Very Low
Monday:
Very Low
Tuesday:
Very Low
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933954
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6楼#
发布于:2017-11-18 18:07
A trough lies near Indonesia which may deepen and move to near 10S over the next few days. There is a slight chance of a weak tropical low developing in the trough early next week.

图片:gfs_mslp_wind_ind_fh90-240.gif


动图

图片:95.track.png


图片:gfs_dvorak_ind_fh60-222.gif


未来的01S
[933954于2017-11-19 13:03编辑了帖子]
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meow
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7楼#
发布于:2017-12-20 22:11
哈哈哈哈哈
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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feidele
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8楼#
发布于:2017-12-21 17:04
一个圣诞节前后很猛的的气旋在冬至连一点影子都没有?
费德勒 伟大的运动员
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meow
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9楼#
发布于:2018-01-05 09:24
南印度洋五旋共舞
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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