meow
世纪风王
世纪风王
  • 注册日期2011-09-08
  • 最后登录2018-09-23
  • 粉丝449
  • 关注38
  • 发帖数17699
  • 来自
阅读:2101回复:11

[EP]东太平洋二级飓风“希拉里”(09E.Hilary) - 发展不如预期 - NHC:90KT

楼主#
更多 发布于:2017-07-21 05:55

图片:20170720.2100.goes-15.vis.1km.90E.INVEST.20kts.1010mb.8.1N.87.8W.100pc.jpg


2. Disorganized cloudiness and showers in the far eastern Pacific
southwest of Central America are associated with a tropical wave.
Environmental conditions are forecast to become increasingly
favorable for development, and a tropical depression will likely
form by early next week while the system moves west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

扫描二维码,查看更多台风内容!
[颱風巨爵于2017-08-03 16:04编辑了帖子]
2条评分, 金钱 +3 威望 +3
  • 9914dan
    威望 3
    优秀帖
    2017-07-21 07:44
  • 9914dan
    金钱 3
    优秀帖
    2017-07-21 07:44
喜欢0 评分2
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
让爱住我家
强台风
强台风
  • 注册日期2005-07-17
  • 最后登录2018-09-22
  • 粉丝150
  • 关注105
  • 发帖数4028
  • 来自
1楼#
发布于:2017-07-21 05:57
补图

图片:20170720.2115.goes-13.ir.90E.INVEST.20kts.1010mb.8.1N.87.8W.100pc.jpg

“七子之歌·台湾” 我们是东海捧出的珍珠一串,琉球是我的群弟,我就是台湾。 我胸中还氤氲着郑氏的英魂,精忠的赤血点染了我的家传。 母亲,酷炎的夏日要晒死我了,赐我个号令,我还能背水一战。母亲!我要回来,母亲!
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
iam最小值
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2011-07-16
  • 最后登录2018-09-23
  • 粉丝238
  • 关注25
  • 发帖数12990
  • 来自
2楼#
发布于:2017-07-21 10:13
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Jul 20 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Greg, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.  The National Hurricane Center
has issued its last advisory on Tropical Storm Fernanda, located
several hundred miles east of Hilo, Hawaii, and the last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Eight-E, located more than a thousand miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.  Future advisories on Fernanda will be issued by the
Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii.

1. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are associated with a broad area
of low pressure centered several hundred miles south-southwest of
Mexico. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for
development of this system while it moves westward to
west-northwestward around 10 mph, and a tropical depression is
expected to form well southwest of Mexico over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.


2. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave are
showing increasing signs of organization over the far eastern
Pacific southwest of Central America. Environmental conditions are
forecast to become increasingly favorable for development, and a
tropical depression is expected to form by early next week
while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Fernanda are issued under WMO
header WTPA31 PHFO and under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Fernanda are issued under WMO
header WTPA21 PHFO and under AWIPS header HFOTCMCP1.


Forecaster Landsea

图片:two_pac_2d2.png

回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
iam最小值
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2011-07-16
  • 最后登录2018-09-23
  • 粉丝238
  • 关注25
  • 发帖数12990
  • 来自
3楼#
发布于:2017-07-21 20:05
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Jul 21 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Greg, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. A broad area of low pressure centered several hundred miles south
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions
are forecast to be conducive for the formation of a tropical
depression during the next couple of days before upper-level winds
become unfavorable for development. This system is forecast to move
westward to west-northwestward at around 10 mph through early next
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.


2. Showers and thunderstorms have become better organized in
association with a tropical wave over the far eastern Pacific
southwest of Central America.  Environmental conditions are
forecast to become increasingly favorable for development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form later today or tomorrow while
the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Blake

图片:two_pac_2d2.png




WTPN22 PHNC 211100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/201921Z JUL 17//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 201930)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.4N 89.3W TO 10.3N 99.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
211030Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.5N
90.7W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
8.5N 90.7W, APPROXIMATELY 740NM SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE. A 210826Z GPM 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW- TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK WITH STEADY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
221100Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 106.0W.//
NNNN

图片:ep9017 20170721 0600Z.gif

回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
meow
世纪风王
世纪风王
  • 注册日期2011-09-08
  • 最后登录2018-09-23
  • 粉丝449
  • 关注38
  • 发帖数17699
  • 来自
4楼#
发布于:2017-07-22 01:11
上看90kt,离墨西哥比较近。

图片:145907_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png


000
WTPZ44 KNHC 211455
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092017
1000 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

Early visible satellite images and recent microwave data indicate
that the disturbance that NHC has been tracking for the past few
days over the far eastern Pacific has gained enough convective
organization and circulation to be designated a tropical depression.
The low-level center is difficult to precisely locate, but is
estimated to be under the area of deep convection and east of
a developing cyclonically curved band.  Dvorak estimates are 2.0 and
1.5 from TAFB and SAB, respectively.

The initial intensity has been set at 30 kt, but environmental
conditions are very favorable for the depression to become a
tropical storm later today or Saturday and then a hurricane. Most
of the intensity models agree with this scenario and so does the
official forecast which follows the consensus quite close.

The depression appears to be moving toward the west or 280 degrees
at about 12 kt.  The cyclone is well embedded within a persistent
deep-layer flow associated with a subtropical ridge extending from
Mexico westward across the Pacific. This flow pattern is not
expected to change much, keeping the cyclone on the same general
track well south of the coast of Mexico during the next five days.
The NHC forecast is basically in the middle of the guidance envelope
and very close to the multi-model consensus TVCN.

This is the 5th tropical cyclone in the eastern Pacific basin during
this very busy July.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/1500Z  9.0N  93.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  22/0000Z  9.4N  95.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  22/1200Z 10.0N  98.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  23/0000Z 10.9N 100.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  23/1200Z 12.2N 101.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  24/1200Z 14.5N 104.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  25/1200Z 16.0N 108.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  26/1200Z 17.0N 112.0W   90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
正太学长
台风
台风
  • 注册日期2012-08-16
  • 最后登录2018-09-23
  • 粉丝47
  • 关注31
  • 发帖数476
  • 来自
5楼#
发布于:2017-07-22 23:39
000
WTPZ44 KNHC 221454
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092017
1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

The depression has failed to strengthen as previously indicated, and
both the circulation and the convection are not currently as
organized as it seemed to be 24 hours ago when advisories were
initiated. Microwave data reveal that the center appears to be
located on the south side of the main convection, and the low and
mid-level centers are not aligned. Based on Dvorak numbers, the
maximum winds are estimated at 30 kt. Having said that, the
depression is expected to move through a very favorable moist
environment of low shear during the next several days, and the ocean
is plenty warm.  With these conditions present, the NHC forecast
insists on strengthening and still anticipates that the depression
will become a hurricane in about 48 hours. Guidance is a little bit
less aggressive than earlier but still forecasts intensification.

With the low-level center difficult to locate, the initial motion
has become uncertain. The best estimate is toward the west-northwest
or 290 degrees at 10 kt. A persistent subtropical ridge extending
from Mexico westward across the Pacific will keep steering the
cyclone on the same general track for the next five days. This is
the solution provided by track guidance which, in fact, is tightly
clustered. The NHC forecast is in the middle of the tight envelope,
and is not very different from the previous official forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/1500Z 10.0N  98.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  23/0000Z 10.5N  99.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  23/1200Z 11.6N 101.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  24/0000Z 12.5N 103.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  24/1200Z 13.5N 104.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  25/1200Z 15.0N 108.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  26/1200Z 16.5N 111.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  27/1200Z 18.0N 115.0W   95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila


进一步推迟升格TS的时间,但提到未来风切和水汽情况良好,上望95kt
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
正太学长
台风
台风
  • 注册日期2012-08-16
  • 最后登录2018-09-23
  • 粉丝47
  • 关注31
  • 发帖数476
  • 来自
6楼#
发布于:2017-07-23 10:27
000
WTPZ44 KNHC 222044
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092017
400 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

Recent ASCAT data confirmed that the depression has not become any
better organized and that the low-level center is on the southern
edge of the main convection. T-numbers have remain either steady or
decrease slightly, so the initial intensity has been kept at 30 kt
at this time.  Despite the current lack of organization, the cyclone
is expected to be in a very favorable environment of low shear and
over warm waters. With these conditions, I have no option but to
forecast strengthening. This process will probably be slow during
the next day or so, but after that time, the cyclone should
strengthen at a faster pace and become a hurricane. This follows the
latest intensity guidance which suggest that the most rapid increase
in the winds should occur beyond 48 hours.

The depression appears to be moving toward the west-northwest or
290 degrees at 11 kt. The steering pattern has not changed, and
global models continue to forecast a strong ridge extending from
Mexico westward across the Pacific. This flow pattern will keep the
cyclone on the same general west-northwestward track for the next 5
days, as indicated by the general guidance. This solution is not
different from the previous NHC track forecasts which have been
keeping the core of the cyclone well south of the coast of Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/2100Z 10.5N  99.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  23/0600Z 11.2N 100.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  23/1800Z 12.2N 102.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  24/0600Z 13.0N 104.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  24/1800Z 13.7N 105.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  25/1800Z 15.0N 109.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  26/1800Z 16.5N 113.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  27/1800Z 17.5N 116.0W   95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

LLCC在主对流南侧边缘,再次推迟升格时间,但仍上望C2上限
[正太学长于2017-07-23 10:29编辑了帖子]
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
iam最小值
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2011-07-16
  • 最后登录2018-09-23
  • 粉丝238
  • 关注25
  • 发帖数12990
  • 来自
7楼#
发布于:2017-07-23 14:55
折腾了这么久终于命名

WTPZ44 KNHC 230253
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Hilary Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092017
1000 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

A persistent area of convection has developed near and over the
center of the depression since the last advisory.  In addition, a
recent SSMI/S overpass shows the low- to mid-level convective
banding has become better defined.  Based on this, the initial
intensity is increased to 35 kt, the upper end of the satellite
intensity estimates, and the depression is upgraded to Tropical
Storm Hilary.

Hilary should remain in an environment of light vertical shear and
warm sea surface temperatures for the next 4 days, and thus it
should at least steadily, if not rapidly, strengthen.  After day
4, the cyclone should move over decreasing sea surface temperatures
and into stronger shear, and the new intensity forecast shows
weakening at that time.  The new intensity forecast lies below that
of the SHIPS model and the HCCA corrected consensus, and it is
possible an upward adjustment of the forecast intensities may be
required in later advisories.

The initial motion is 300/12. The main steering feature should be a
mid-level ridge extending from Mexico westward into the Pacific,
and this should steer the cyclone generally west-northwestward
through the forecast period.  Near the end of the period, there is
a possibility of interaction with Tropical Depression Ten-E,
although present indications in the large-scale guidance are this
should have a minimal impact on Hilary's track.  The new forecast
track is similar to, but a little north of, the previous track, and
it lies near the various consensus models.  The new track keeps
the core of the cyclone well south of the coast of Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0300Z 11.5N 100.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  23/1200Z 12.1N 101.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  24/0000Z 13.0N 103.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  24/1200Z 13.7N 104.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  25/0000Z 14.4N 106.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  26/0000Z 16.0N 110.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  27/0000Z 17.0N 113.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  28/0000Z 18.5N 116.5W   90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

图片:030402_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
meow
世纪风王
世纪风王
  • 注册日期2011-09-08
  • 最后登录2018-09-23
  • 粉丝449
  • 关注38
  • 发帖数17699
  • 来自
8楼#
发布于:2017-07-24 23:58
#ImWithHer

图片:20170724.1530.goes-15.vis.1km.09E.HILARY.65kts.990mb.14N.104W.080pc.jpg


图片:144701_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png


000
WTPZ44 KNHC 241443
TCDEP4

Hurricane Hilary Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092017
1000 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

Satellite images indicate that Hilary has a small central core of
convection, with both the visible and infrared channels suggesting
that an eye is trying to form.  Microwave data also show an
incomplete eyewall, though the system is so small that most
sensors don't have the necessary resolution to really see the
center.  The initial wind speed is set to 70 kt, a bit above the
satellite fixes given the recent upward organization trend.
Interestingly, despite the hurricane having intensified about 30 kt
in the past 24 hours, model guidance this morning really backed off
on the future strengthening of Hilary, with most guidance no
longer showing it becoming a major hurricane.  It is difficult to
believe the new model runs because the environment seems similarly
favorable for at least the next day or so, with perhaps some
increase in northerly shear in about 48 hours. For now, the latest
NHC forecast is reduced just a little bit beyond 24 hours, owing to
the possible increase in shear, but still lies at or above all of
the guidance.

The initial motion estimate is 295/7.  A ridge that extends into the
eastern Pacific from the southwestern United States is forecast to
strengthen slightly over the next couple of days, which should
steer Hilary a bit faster to the west-northwest during that time.
The long-range forecast is a mess with the likelihood of some binary
interaction with TS Irwin, leading to a large model spread by day 5.
Dynamical guidance has been trending toward more interaction,
although the GFS/HMON models are well off to the northeast of the
rest of the guidance. The NHC prediction is close to the previous
one, putting a little more weight on the binary interaction
solutions, which results in a small westward shift of the forecast
at long range.  Obviously this type of forecast has large
uncertainty.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/1500Z 14.1N 104.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  25/0000Z 14.6N 105.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  25/1200Z 15.2N 107.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  26/0000Z 15.9N 108.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  26/1200Z 16.5N 110.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  27/1200Z 17.7N 114.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  28/1200Z 18.7N 118.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  29/1200Z 19.5N 121.5W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
iam最小值
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2011-07-16
  • 最后登录2018-09-23
  • 粉丝238
  • 关注25
  • 发帖数12990
  • 来自
9楼#
发布于:2017-07-26 01:23
WTPZ44 KNHC 251439
TCDEP4

Hurricane Hilary Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092017
900 AM MDT Tue Jul 25 2017

Satellite imagery shows that deep, but somewhat asymmetric,
convection continues in the inner core of Hilary.  The 1-minute
visible imagery from GOES-16 indicates strong convective towers are
firing in the northeastern eyewall, then attempting to rotate
cyclonically around the center.  Still, the eyewall remains open in
the southwest quadrant, as suggested in the visible imagery and
shown in a recent 1340 UTC SSMIS microwave pass.  Intensity
estimates remain about the same as overnight, so the initial wind
speed will stay at 90 kt.

Hilary is forecast to remain in a conducive environment for
strengthening during the next day or so.  However, the northerly
wind shear is not far away, as evidenced by cirrus clouds moving
toward the center in the northern semicircle, which could cause the
hurricane to level off in intensity.  Similar to yesterday at this
time, the model guidance has really backed down off the peak
intensity, with few of the solutions even showing Hilary reaching
100 kt.  It was easier to ignore the models yesterday because they
seemed unrealistic; today the shear is approaching and should
impact the cyclone within 24 hours.  It seems best to only gradually
reduce the intensity forecast, so the latest NHC prediction is
adjusted toward the model consensus by day 3, when more significant
weakening is expected due to cooler waters, drier air, and
interaction with Hurricane Irwin.

The initial motion estimate is a little to the left and faster,
285/10 kt. A mid-tropospheric ridge extending westward from the
southwestern United States should cause Hilary to continue on a
west to west-northwestward track for the next several days.  In a
few days, however, Hilary is likely to pass close to Hurricane
Irwin.  While Irwin won't affect Hilary too much, the bulk of the
guidance is showing a slowdown and slight turn to the left of
Hilary as Irwin tugs on its circulation.  Overall, models are in
fairly good agreement considering the complexity of the situation,
with even most of the GFS-based guidance now acknowledging the
binary interaction.  The official forecast has been gradually
shifting westward at long range, and this advisory continues that
trend, near or just west of the model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/1500Z 15.3N 107.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  26/0000Z 15.8N 109.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  26/1200Z 16.3N 111.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  27/0000Z 16.8N 113.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  27/1200Z 17.4N 116.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  28/1200Z 18.5N 120.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  29/1200Z 19.5N 124.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  30/1200Z 20.0N 127.5W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

图片:144341_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
上一页
游客

返回顶部