9914dan
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[WP]1712号热带气旋“榕树”(14W.Banyan)机构发报专帖

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更多 发布于:2017-08-11 03:18

图片:wp9017.gif


WTPN21 PGTW 102000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/102000Z AUG 17//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN22 PGTW 102000)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.6N 171.5E TO 21.9N 168.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 101740Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.3N 170.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.3N 170.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 300NM SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND
INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPENING CONVECTION ABOVE A COHESIVE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 101849Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC AND IN
A BAND ALONG THE SOUTHERN ARC OF THE STORM. INVEST 90S IS CURRENTLY
IN A REGION OF VERY FAVORABLE (5-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE (28-30C), AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.
GLOBAL DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK, KEEPING THE
STORM WELL WITHIN THIS FAVORABLE REGION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
112000Z.
//
NNNN
[9914dan于2017-08-11 20:49编辑了帖子]
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t02436
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1楼#
发布于:2017-08-11 08:38
JTWC/90W/TCFA/08-10 20Z COR

图片:wp9017.gif


WTPN21 PGTW 102000 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.6N 171.5E TO 21.9N 168.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 101740Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.3N 170.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.3N 170.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 300NM SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND
INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPENING CONVECTION ABOVE A COHESIVE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 101849Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC AND IN
A BAND ALONG THE SOUTHERN ARC OF THE STORM. INVEST 90S IS CURRENTLY
IN A REGION OF VERY FAVORABLE (5-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE (28-30C), AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.
GLOBAL DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE WEAK DEVELOPMENT WITH A NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK, KEEPING THE STORM WELL WITHIN THIS FAVORABLE REGION FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18
TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
112000Z.
4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: REMOVED PREVIOUSLY CITED REFERENCE
A AND AMPLIFICATION.//

NNNN
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  • iam最小值
    威望 -2
    只是移除报头,不涉及关键内容的修正报不另行加分
    08-11 17:22
  • 9914dan
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t02436
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2楼#
发布于:2017-08-11 09:11
JMA/TD-a/08-11 00Z
熱帯低気圧
平成29年08月11日10時05分 発表

图片:JMA_TD-a_08-11_00Z.png


<11日09時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        ウェーク島近海
中心位置        北緯 16度10分(16.2度)
東経 169度55分(169.9度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 20km/h(10kt)
中心気圧        1008hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)

<12日09時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        ウェーク島近海
予報円の中心        北緯 20度00分(20.0度)
東経 166度00分(166.0度)
進行方向、速さ        北西 25km/h(13kt)
中心気圧        1002hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径        200km(110NM)
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  • 9914dan
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正太学长
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3楼#
发布于:2017-08-11 11:42
JTWC/14W/#01/08-11 00Z

图片:wp1417.gif


WTPN31 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 001    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   110000Z --- NEAR 16.7N 170.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.7N 170.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z --- 18.3N 168.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z --- 20.2N 166.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z --- 21.7N 166.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z --- 23.6N 166.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   140000Z --- 27.4N 168.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 19 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   150000Z --- 34.3N 171.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 17.1N 169.6E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 249 NM
SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 110900Z, 111500Z, 112100Z AND 120300Z.
//
NNNN
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  • 9914dan
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4楼#
发布于:2017-08-11 11:43
JTWC/14W/#01/08-11 00Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN31 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (FOURTEEN)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 14W (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 249
NM SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS CONSOLIDATION OF DEEP CONVECTION, WITH CURVED
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A COMPACT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC).  A 102224Z AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE PASS REVEALS THE DEEP
CONVECTION WRAPPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, WITH WEAKER
BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
THE PGTW FIX AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE AMSU DATA WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON
THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KTS), WITH THE RJTD ESTIMATE AT
25 KTS. CIMSS 850 MB VORTICITY AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP
FURTHER SUPPORT THE ASSESSMENT OF CONSOLIDATION, WHILE GLOBAL
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE INITIALIZING ONLY A WAVE. THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LIGHT (10-15 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAIR OUTFLOW CONDITIONS, AND THE REPORTED
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE FROM A NEARBY BUOY IS 29.6 DEGREES CELSIUS.
TD 14W TRACKING NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTHEAST.  
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TD 14W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS, AFTER WHICH A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST, RESULTING IN RECURVATURE AROUND THE STR. A NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS AND VERY LIMITED GUIDANCE, HOWEVER, GIVEN THE COMPACT
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM HIGHER INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE.  AFTER TAU
48, INCREASING VWS AND STRONG GRADIENT FLOW IS EXPECTED TO START A
WEAKENING TREND.
  C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TD 14W WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST AND
BE ABSORBED BY A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL BY TAU
96.  HOWEVER, STRONG GRADIENT FLOW WILL REMAIN. DUE TO THE LIMITED
GUIDANCE AND POOR INITIALIZATION BY GLOBAL MODELS, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.  //
NNNN
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  • 9914dan
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    08-11 15:50
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iam最小值
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5楼#
发布于:2017-08-11 11:54
JMA/TD-a/08-11 03Z

图片:JMA 20170811 03UTC.png


熱帯低気圧
平成29年08月11日12時55分 発表

<11日12時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        ウェーク島近海
中心位置        北緯 16度35分(16.6度)
東経 169度25分(169.4度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 20km/h(10kt)
中心気圧        1008hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)

<12日12時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        ウェーク島近海
予報円の中心        北緯 20度20分(20.3度)
東経 166度05分(166.1度)
進行方向、速さ        北西 20km/h(12kt)
中心気圧        1002hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径        200km(110NM)
1条评分, 威望 +2
  • 9914dan
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iam最小值
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6楼#
发布于:2017-08-11 14:51
JMA/TD-a/08-11 06Z

图片:JMA 20170811 06UTC.png


熱帯低気圧
平成29年08月11日15時55分 発表

<11日15時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        ウェーク島近海
中心位置        北緯 16度50分(16.8度)
東経 169度05分(169.1度)
進行方向、速さ        北西 20km/h(10kt)
中心気圧        1006hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)

<12日15時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        ウェーク島近海
予報円の中心        北緯 21度00分(21.0度)
東経 165度40分(165.7度)
進行方向、速さ        北西 25km/h(13kt)
中心気圧        1002hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径        200km(110NM)
1条评分, 威望 +2
  • 9914dan
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t02436
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7楼#
发布于:2017-08-11 17:11
JTWC/14W/#02/08-11 06Z

图片:wp1417.gif


WTPN31 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14W (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 002    
   UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   110600Z --- NEAR 17.0N 169.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 169.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z --- 18.9N 167.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z --- 20.6N 166.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z --- 22.4N 165.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z --- 24.2N 165.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z --- 28.4N 168.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z --- 35.2N 171.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 17.5N 168.5E.
TROPICAL STORM 14W (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 194 NM
SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 111500Z, 112100Z, 120300Z AND 120900Z.
//
NNNN
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t02436
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发布于:2017-08-11 17:11
JTWC/14W/#02/08-11 06Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN31 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (FOURTEEN)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 14W (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 194 NM
SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A DEEP CONVECTION AREA ABOVE A COMPACT LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).  AN 110424Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWS WEAKER CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE PGTW FIX
AND THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON MULTI-
AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.0 TO T2.5 (30-35 KNOTS) FROM
RJTD AND PGTW RESPECTIVELY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE
SYSTEM HAS GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, THOUGH NO CLEAR CHANNELS ARE
PRESENT. TS 14W IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS TRACKING THROUGH AN AREA OF WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29-30 CELSIUS). THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR TS 14W REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TS 14W IS EXPECTED TO INITIALLY TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. AFTER TAU 36
A DEEP LAYERED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AFTER WHICH A DEEP LAYER TROUGH
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO RECURVE AROUND THE
STR AND TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST. GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION WILL OCCUR
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, PEAKING AT AROUND 45 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 36
INCREASING VWS COMBINED WITH STRONG GRADIENT FLOW WILL CAUSE A
GRADUAL DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM.
  C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 14W WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT IS
ABSORBED BY A BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH IS THE RESULT OF THE PASSING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH. ONCE THE SYSTEM BEGINS INTERACTING WITH THE TROUGH
IT WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, BECOMING FULLY EXTRATROPICAL
BY TAU 96. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN, HOWEVER,
STRONG GRADIENT FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
WHILE THE STORM IS TRANSITIONING TO EXTRATROPICAL. DUE TO GLOBAL
MODELS FAILING TO INITIALIZE A CLOSED CIRCULATION, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. //
NNNN
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发布于:2017-08-11 17:55
JMA/TD-a/08-11 09Z
熱帯低気圧
平成29年08月11日18時55分 発表

图片:JMA_TD-a_08-11_09Z.png


<11日18時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域 ウェーク島近海
中心位置 北緯 17度10分(17.2度)
東経 168度20分(168.3度)
進行方向、速さ 北西 20km/h(12kt)
中心気圧 1006hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)

<12日18時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域 ウェーク島近海
予報円の中心 北緯 21度05分(21.1度)
東経 165度35分(165.6度)
進行方向、速さ 北北西 20km/h(12kt)
中心気圧 1002hPa
中心付近の最大風速 18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速 25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径 200km(110NM)
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  • wusifeng
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    08-11 22:01
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