风王2012
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[报文翻译][2017] 1713号热带气旋“天鸽”(15W.Hato)JTWC预报理由翻译帖

楼主#
更多 发布于:2017-08-20 23:27
“天鸽”目前处于快速发展期,考虑其未来可能威胁华南沿海,且路径、强度等均存在较大不确定性,故开此贴。

图片:截图20170823155226.png


说明:
1、由于该热带系统未来发展态势良好,且可能影响我国华南沿海,所以特开此贴。
2、本贴翻译JTWC报文,时间以协调世界時的作准。
3、翻译前为防止重复翻译原则上需要预约,可以直接回帖预约或发私信至开帖人预约。
4、为信息展示需要,请将报文原文和译文放置于同一楼层。若回帖预约的,请将翻译放在预约帖。
5、有时间的童鞋建议全文翻译,我们也鼓励抓要点进行简单翻译,简单翻译的要点:
发报时定位,过去的移动速度、结构、强度、环境场,未来的强度、路径、环境场,数值的预测。
6、本帖不允许发与翻译和预约不相符的内容,否则将被视为灌水删帖处理。


组织规则:
第一条 预报理由翻译贴是对JTWC Reasoning文件进行翻译的专贴。由于气旋的Reasoning文件翻译量不定,因此需要一定的人事组织,参与组织或翻译的会员将获得一定程度的奖励。
第二条 任何会员都可对任何JTWC升格的系统开贴,但原则上建议只对我国有影响的系统开帖。对不影响我国的系统,不建议单独开贴,翻译者可在追击贴或深度贴内进行,版主将按第八条之标准酌情加分。
第三条 开帖人默认为组织人,负责更新首楼的翻译信息表,并履行好翻译工作的责任,自己开帖让别人翻译的行为将被谴责及追究。如遇多人开贴,则同“抢扰动”规则,只保留一个帖子。若开帖人无时间组织,可委托管理团队组织。
第四条 翻译的模式有两种,分别为全部翻译、要点翻译。实践中,不建议连续全文翻译,可针对预报理由变动进行要点总结。
第五条 内容发布时,报文原文、中文翻译必须齐全。
第六条 开贴加分:开帖人翻译一篇或以上报文,威望+5;否则削减为威望+2。
第七条 组织加分:开设翻译信息表,贡献值+1;维护翻译信息表至台风结束,根据台风维持时间长短,追加贡献值2点,威望3~8点。
第八条 内容加分:全文翻译,视翻译质量加贡献值6-9点;要点翻译,视翻译质量贡献值2-5点。对单个台风,翻译5~9报者,追加贡献值5点,翻译10报以上者,追加贡献值10点。
第九条 使用翻译机进行翻译的,不予加分。
第十条 台风论坛管理团队对本条例有最终解释权。
[风王2012于2017-08-23 15:52编辑了帖子]
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DK
风王2012
论坛版主-副热带高压
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1楼#
发布于:2017-08-21 00:36
15W 预报理由翻译贴 #03A 8月20日23時(082012Z)
1. 供专业气象人员分析
2. 六小时总结与分析
热带风暴15W(天鸽)正位于台湾台北东南方约436海里处,在过去6小时内以每小时13海里的速度向西偏北方向移动。 红外卫星增强动画图像显示,尽管主要对流仍然位于底层环流中心的西部,但对流却在不断加深和巩固中。我们对初始定位和强度评定抱有较高的信心,这基于20日12时26分(北京时间20日晚20时26分,译者注)的ASCAT(的风场扫描结果),其显示(15W)中心西侧风力高达35kts。环境分析表明15W所处环境是有利的,包括较低的垂直风切变(5-10kts),较高的海温(30℃)和良好的径向流出。热带风暴15W正沿着其北侧副热带高压脊的西南边缘移动。
3. 预报理由
A. 系统被重新定位至原位置的西南偏西约115海里处。此外,对比上次预报,我们的预报理由无明显改变。
B. 在剩余预报期内,热带风暴15W将在副热带高压脊的引导下继续向西北方向移动。热带气旋(15W)将穿过吕宋海峡后,在72小时内于香港以东地区登陆。系统将逐渐加强,并在登陆前达到最高强度60kts。
C. 未来72小时-96小时内,由于中国崎岖的地形(与系统)摩擦将使系统迅速衰弱。各数值预报路径相当分散,NAVGEM的预报路径结果在各模型中相当偏右(这句话求教?只是大概感觉一下意思),再加上对系统中心重新定位后的风暴活动的不确定性,我们对预测信心较低。

图片:79_87117_802fc8ec2727fbb.gif

图片:15W_201200sair.jpg



图片:79_48078_9b365dd8c335d1f.png


(hei)

图片:wgmssht-1.GIF

图片:QQ浏览器截屏未命名.png

图片:wgmswvir-1.GIF

图片:up50_2017082012.png


WDPN31 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W (HATO) WARNING NR
003A RELOCATED//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (HATO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 436 NM
SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS DEEPENED AS IT CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE,
ALBEIT THE MAIN CONVECTION REMAIN SHEARED WESTWARD OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A 201226Z ASCAT BULLSEYE PASS WITH STRONGER WINDS
UP TO 35 KNOTS ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, WARM (30 CELSIUS) ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND
GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. TS 15W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN RELOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION, OTHERWISE, THERE IS NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE LAST
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.  
   B. TS 15W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR. THE CYCLONE WILL
CROSS THE LUZON STRAIT BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL JUST EAST OF HONG KONG
BEFORE TAU 72. THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY, PEAKING AT 60
KNOTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 15W WILL RAPIDLY DECAY DUE TO FRICTIONAL
EFFECTS CAUSED BY THE RUGGED CHINESE TERRAIN AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 96.
THE NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS WIDELY SPREAD WITH NAVGEM ON THE
EXTREME RIGHT OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE. THIS, PLUS THE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE RECENT STORM MOTION FOLLOWING RELOCATION, LEND LOW CONFIDENCE TO
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN



版主附加圖解:

图片:awp15_2017082006_track_late.png

[颱風巨爵于2017-08-21 00:50编辑了帖子]
2条评分, 贡献值 +7 威望 +1
  • 颱風巨爵
    贡献值 7
    優秀帖
    2017-08-21 00:53
  • 9914dan
    威望 +1
    NAVGEM预测绕过台湾登陆闽浙交界
    2017-08-21 00:45
DK
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kennethiumchan
强热带风暴
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2楼#
发布于:2017-08-21 11:43
15W 預報理由翻譯貼 #05A 8月21日11時(082100Z)
1. 供專業氣象人員分析
2. 六小時總結與分析
熱帶風暴15W(天鴿)正集結在台灣台北東南偏南約362海里,在過去6小時內以7節速度向西北偏西移動。 強化多色調動畫圖像顯示,主要持續對流從一個局部裸露的底層環流中心向西切離。我們對初始定位抱有較低的信心,並乃是基於太平洋颱風警報中心的衛星定位及協調世界時20日22時26分從全球降水監測微波成像儀的89吉赫微波圖像獲得的結果。系統強度根據多個機構的德法分析,分布於T2.0至T2.5之間(30至35節)並取上限而評定為35節。環境分析表明15W所處環境對其發展基本有利,包括高海溫(30℃)和良好的徑向流出,不過強烈垂直風切變(20至25節)正抵銷這些影響。熱帶風暴15W正沿著其東北側的一個深厚副熱帶高壓脊的西南緣向西北移動。
3. 預報理由
A. 系統被重新定位至原位置以東約30海里處。除此以外,對比上次預報,預報理由無明顯改變。
B. 在未來72小時,熱帶風暴15W將在副熱帶高壓脊的引導下繼續向西北偏西方向移動。系統將橫過呂宋海峽並在台灣以南掠過,隨後進入南中國海。熱帶風暴天鴿將於48小時後登陸並抵達香港以北。基於勉強有利的大氣環境及不利系統發展的垂直風切變,系統將逐漸增強,並在登陸前達到最高強度60節。系統登陸後將在中國東南部崎嶇的地勢帶來的摩擦力影響下快速減弱。數值預報在24小時內的預報趨向一致,但在24小時後預報期趨於分散,當中NAVGEM預報路徑相對於其他預報路徑為偏北。基於模式分散的程度,本路徑預報信心較低。
C. 72小時後,熱帶風暴15W將在預報期內在同一副熱帶高壓脊的延伸的影響下向西移動。在持續陸地影響下,系統將繼續急速減弱,並在96小時後徹底消散。數值預報一致程度屬一般,當中系統96小時內的路徑預報相當分散。由於預報路徑相當分散及系統將橫過陸地,本次預報信心較低。

WDPN31 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W (HATO) WARNING NR
05A RELOCATED//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 15W (HATO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 362 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AND IS
BASED ON THE PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND A 202216Z GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 35 KNOTS IS HEDGED ON THE
UPPER END OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
T2.0 TO T2.5 (30 TO 35 KNOTS). ALSO, ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH WARM (30 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW BEING OFFSET BY
STRONG (20-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TS 15W IS TRACKING
TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN RELOCATED APPROXIMATELY 30 NM EAST OF THE
PREVIOUS POSITION, OTHERWISE, THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.  
   B. TS 15W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR. THE TRACK
WILL TAKE THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE LUZON STRAIT, WELL SOUTH OF TAIWAN,
AND INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. TS HATO WILL MAKE LANDFALL SHORTLY
AFTER TAU 48, TRACKING TO THE NORTH OF HONG KONG. DUE TO A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH UNFAVORABLE VWS, THE SYSTEM
WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS
JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. AFTER IT MAKES LANDFALL THE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AS IT EXPERIENCES THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS
BROUGHT ON BY THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF SOUTHEASTERN CHINA. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24 THE
GUIDANCE BEGINS TO SPREAD WITH NAVGEM TAKING A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK
THAN THE REST OF THE MODELS. DUE TO THE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 15W IS FORECAST TO TRACK TO THE WEST FOR THE
DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN EXTENSION
OF THE SAME STR. DUE TO CONTINUED LAND INTERACTION, THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN, COMPLETELY DISSIPATING BY TAU 96.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THERE BEING A
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS THROUGH TAU 96. DUE TO THE SPREAD
IN MODEL GUIDANCE, AND THE SYSTEM TRACKING OVER LAND, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
[颱風巨爵于2017-08-21 17:01编辑了帖子]
2条评分, 威望 +5 贡献值 +6
  • 风王2012
    威望 +5
    鼓励一下~
    2017-08-21 12:53
  • 风王2012
    贡献值 +6
    优秀帖
    2017-08-21 12:52
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kennethiumchan
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3楼#
发布于:2017-08-21 16:01
15W 預報理由翻譯貼 #06 8月21日17時(082106Z)
1. 供專業氣象人員分析
2. 六小時總結與分析
熱帶風暴15W(天鴿)正集結在台灣高雄東南偏東約237海里,在過去6小時內以11節速度向西北偏西移動。 強化多色調動畫圖像顯示,主要持續對流從一個完全裸露及粗糙的底層環流中心向西南方切離。我們的初始定位乃基於強化多色調動畫圖像,並抱有較高的信心。系統強度根據多個機構的德法分析,分布於T2.0至T2.5之間(30至35節)並取客觀值而評定為35節。高層環境分析表明15W所處環境對其發展基本有利。雖然系統擁有良好的徑向流出,不過被強烈垂直風切變(20至25節)抵銷。系統路徑沿途海水溫暖(30℃)並對其持續發展有利。此風暴正沿著其東北側的一個深厚副熱帶高壓脊的西南緣移動。
3. 預報理由
A. 對比上次預報,預報理由無明顯改變。
B. 熱帶風暴天鴿將在剩餘的預報期在副熱帶高壓脊的引導下繼續向西北偏西方向移動,橫過呂宋海峽並在36小時後在香港以東登陸。基於勉強有利的大氣環境,系統將逐漸增強,並在登陸前達到最高強度55節。熱帶風暴15W登陸後將隨著其橫越中國東南部,並在其崎嶇的地勢帶來的摩擦力影響下快速減弱,及於72小時後消散。數值預報的一致性有所改善,因此本次預報信心一般。

WDPN31 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W (HATO) WARNING NR
06//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (HATO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 237 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF KAOHSIUNG, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS PERSISTENT CONVECTION SHEARED SOUTHWESTWARD OF A
FULLY EXPOSED AND RAGGED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF OBJECTIVE
AND AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.0 TO T2.5 (30 TO 35
KNOTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WITH STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW BEING OFFSET BY STRONG (20-25
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN WARM AND CONDUCIVE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT AT 30 CELSIUS.
THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF A
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.  
   B. TS HATO IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR, THROUGH THE
LUZON STRAIT BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL AFTER TAU 36 JUST EAST OF HONG
KONG. DUE TO A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE SYSTEM WILL
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN, REACHING A PEAK OF 55 KNOTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
AFTERWARDS, TS 15W WILL RAPIDLY DECAY AS IT DRAGS OVER THE RUGGED
TERRAIN OF SOUTHEASTERN CHINA, AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT, LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
[颱風巨爵于2017-08-21 17:03编辑了帖子]
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kennethiumchan
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发布于:2017-08-21 21:52
15W 預報理由翻譯貼 #07 8月21日23時(082112Z)
1. 供專業氣象人員分析
2. 六小時總結與分析
熱帶風暴15W(天鴿)正集結在台灣高雄東南約179海里,在過去6小時內以9節速度向西北偏西移動。 強化紅外線動畫圖像顯示,主要持續對流從一個廣闊及粗糙的底層環流中心向西南方切離。系統初始定位乃基於協調世界時21日10時43分的一次由加強微波探測儀-B的探測,並因較差的掃描而抱有較低的信心。系統強度根據多個機構的德法分析,分布於T2.0至T2.5之間(30至35節)並取客觀值而評定為35節。高層環境分析表明15W所處環境對其發展基本有利。雖然系統擁有良好的徑向流出,不過被強烈垂直風切變(20至25節)抵銷。系統路徑沿途海水溫暖(30℃)並對其持續發展有利。此風暴正沿著其東北側的一個深厚副熱帶高壓脊的西南緣移動。
3. 預報理由
A. 對比上次預報,預報理由無明顯改變。
B. 熱帶風暴天鴿將在剩餘的預報期在副熱帶高壓脊的引導下繼續向西北偏西方向移動,橫過呂宋海峽並在36小時後在香港以東登陸並隨即移入中國東南部內陸。基於勉強有利的大氣環境,系統將逐漸增強,並在登陸前達到最高強度50節。熱帶風暴15W登陸後將隨著其橫越中國東南部,並在崎嶇的地勢帶來的摩擦力影響下快速減弱,及於72小時後消散。數值預報的一致性良好,因此本次預報信心一般。

图片:wp1517.gif


图片:15W_211200sair.jpg


WDPN31 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W (HATO) WARNING NR
07//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (HATO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 179 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KAOHSIUNG, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT CONVECTION SHEARED SOUTHWESTWARD OF A BROAD
AND RAGGED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN ILL-DEFINED LOW REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION
FEATURE IN THE 211043Z AMSU-B PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS
IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF OBJECTIVE AND AGENCY DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.0 TO T2.5 (30 TO 35 KNOTS). UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH STRONG RADIAL
OUTFLOW BEING OFFSET BY STRONG (20-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM AND CONDUCIVE FOR
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT AT 30 CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.  
   B. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR, TS HATO IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE LUZON STRAIT BEFORE MAKING
LANDFALL AFTER TAU 36 JUST EAST OF HONG KONG, THEN INLAND INTO
SOUTHEAST CHINA. DUE TO A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE
SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN, REACHING A PEAK OF 50 KNOTS JUST
PRIOR TO LANDFALL. AFTERWARDS, TS 15W WILL RAPIDLY DECAY AS IT DRAGS
OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF SOUTHEASTERN CHINA, AND DISSIPATE BY TAU
72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
[颱風巨爵于2017-08-21 22:20编辑了帖子]
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kennethiumchan
强热带风暴
强热带风暴
  • 注册日期2016-05-26
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发布于:2017-08-22 10:15
15W 預報理由翻譯貼 #08 8月22日05時(082118Z)
1. 供專業氣象人員分析
2. 六小時總結與分析
熱帶風暴15W(天鴿)正集結在台灣台北以南約288海里,在過去6小時內以11節速度向西移動。 強化紅外線動畫圖像顯示,主要持續爆發中的對流從一個廣闊的底層環流中心向西南方切離。系統初始定位乃基於協調世界時21日18時26分的一次由85吉赫特別微波探測儀的探測,並由衛星定位及海平面觀測數據所支持,並因較低的反射率而抱有較低的信心。系統強度根據太平洋颱風警報中心及日本東京的主觀及客觀德法分析,定於T3.0(45節)並取客觀值而評定為35節。早前一幅協調世界時21日12時50分的氣象基地衛星-A所作的ASCAT風場掃描證實風暴在橫過呂宋海峽時,底層環流中心南緣擁有較強風力(40節)。
高層環境分析表明系統西南方輻散強勁,造就其強烈對流活動。不過高層東北風正帶來中等垂直風切變並將對流向西南切離。系統路徑沿途區域海水非常溫暖(31℃)並對其持續發展有利。此風暴正沿著一個中層副熱帶高壓脊的南緣向西移動。
3. 預報理由
A. 對比上次預報,預報理由無明顯改變,但預測巔峰強度則評定為60節。
B. 熱帶風暴15W將在剩餘的預報期在目前的副熱帶高壓脊及另一在中國的副熱帶高壓脊相接的引導下繼續向西移動。隨著系統橫過南中國海,沿途海水溫度將繼續對系統發展非常有利。不過高層環境將因應中等垂直風切變而變得不太有利。系統巔峰強度因為其呂宋海峽及台灣海峽的流入,而在未來24小時有所增加至60節,並在36小時後掠過香港以南及登陸。熱帶風暴15W將隨即移入中國東南部內陸及於72小時後消散。數值預報路徑的一致性良好,惟因初始定位有不確定性而導致路徑預報輕微分散,因此本次預報基於眾機構的統一而信心較高。

图片:wp1517.gif


图片:15W_211800sair.jpg


WDPN31 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W (HATO) WARNING NR
08//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 15W (HATO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 288 NM SOUTH OF
TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
PERSISTENT FLARING CONVECTION BEING DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWESTWARD
OF A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE INITIAL POSITION BASED LOOSELY ON A LOW REFLECTIVITY FEATURE IN
A 211826Z 85GHZ SSMI IMAGE SUPPORTED BY RECENT SATELLITE FIXES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS
WHICH IS BASED ON BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF
T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND RJTD. A PREVIOUS 211250Z METOP-A ASCAT
IMAGE CONFIRMS A REGION OF HIGHER WINDS (4O KNOTS) ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC AS THE FLOW IS FUNNELED THROUGH THE LUZON
STRAIT.  
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS VERY STRONG DIFFLUENCE ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM INFLUENCING THE STRONG
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.  HOWEVER, NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS INTRODUCING
MODERATE WIND SHEAR DISPLACING THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST. SSTS
IN THE REGION ARE ALSO EXTREMELY WARM, NEAR 31 CELSIUS.  CURRENTLY
TS 15W IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
 3.  A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.  HOWEVER, THE INTENSITY
FORECAST NOW REFLECTS A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS.
   B. TS 15W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS ANOTHER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER CHINA BUILDS LINKING THE
CURRENT STEERING RIDGE.  SSTS WILL REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE AS IT
TRACKS THROUGH THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, HOWEVER UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS
WILL BE LESS THAN FAVORABLE DUE TO MODERATE VWS. THE INTENSITY IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 60 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS FUNNELING
TROUGH THE LUZON AND TAIWAN STRAITS FEEDS INTO THE LOWER-LEVEL
CYCLONE.  LANDFALL JUST SOUTH OF HONG KONG IS EXPECTED AROUND TAU
36. TS 15W WILL TRACK INLAND AND FULLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS FAIRLY GOOD GROUPING IN THE FORECASTED
TRAJECTORY, WITH A DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY RELATED TO THE AMBIGUITY OF
THE INITIAL POSITION. THE FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN
[颱風巨爵于2017-08-22 14:41编辑了帖子]
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风王2012
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2013-11-09
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发布于:2017-08-22 11:36
15W 预报理由翻译贴 #09 8月22日11時(082200Z)
1. 供专业气象人员分析
2. 六小时总结与分析

热带风暴15W(天鸽)正位于台湾台北西南偏南方约294海里处,在过去6小时内以每小时14海里的速度向偏西方向移动。 多光谱卫星云图动画显示持续爆发的对流正在覆盖底层环流中心和较弱的螺旋云带。我们对初始定位抱有中等信心,这基于频率为910亿赫兹的特别微波探测成像仪于21日22时48分(北京时间22日早6时48分,译者注)探测的图像结果,这一结果同样为最近的卫星定位结果所支持。当前强度评估为45kts,这是基于所有机构的带主观性的德沃夏克分析结果为T3.0(45kts)。高层环流分析显示系统西南边缘的辐散非常猛烈,这也影响了系统强烈的对流运动。然而,系统高层的东北气流正为其带来中等强度的垂直风切变并将对流切离至西南方。这一海域的海面温度较高,接近31℃,当前热带风暴15W正沿着中层副热带高压脊的南部边缘向西移动。
3. 预报理由
A. 对比上次预报,我们的预报理由无明显改变。
B. 由于在中国的另一个副热带高压(即西环高压)将和当前(引导15W)的副热带高压(即东环高压)连接,故在预报期内,热带风暴15W将继续向偏西方向移动。在它移过南中国海的途中,海面温度将保持非常有利于增强的状态。然而,考虑到中等强度的垂直风切变,高层环境将变得略不利于15W增强。我们认为,由于台风将从台湾海峡和吕宋中间穿过,故强度将在未来24小时内增强至60kts。在30小时后,热带风暴15W就会在香港以西登陆。在72小时内,热带风暴15W将会深入内陆并完全消散。各预报模型在路径方面维持紧密共识,我们的预测路径接近多模型预测结果,我们对此抱有较高的信心。

图片:wp1517.gif


(发出时JTWC官网IR卫星云图仍停留在18Z)

图片:20170821.2248.f17.x.colorpct_91h_91v_1deg.15WHATO.45kts-992mb-203N-1215E.85pc.jp


图片:wgmsdvg.GIF

图片:wgmssht.GIF

图片:QQ浏览器截屏未命名.png


图片:up50_2017082100.png


(此为昨日断裂为两环的高压)

图片:up50_2017082200.png


(此为今日已重新连接的高压)

WDPN31 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W (HATO) WARNING NR
09//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 15W (HATO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 294 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
PERSISTENT FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER AND WEAK BANDING FEATURES. THERE IS FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION ON A LOW REFLECTIVITY FEATURE IN
A 212248Z 91GHZ SSMIS IMAGE AND SUPPORTED BY RECENT SATELLITE
FIXES.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS WHICH IS BASED
ON SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS VERY STRONG DIFFLUENCE ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM INFLUENCING THE STRONG
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.  HOWEVER, NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS INTRODUCING
MODERATE WIND SHEAR DISPLACING THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST. SSTS
IN THE REGION ARE ALSO EXTREMELY WARM, NEAR 31 CELSIUS.  CURRENTLY
TS 15W IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.  
   B. TS 15W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS ANOTHER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER CHINA BUILDS LINKING THE
CURRENT STEERING RIDGE.  SSTS WILL REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE AS IT
TRACKS THROUGH THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, HOWEVER UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS
WILL BE LESS THAN FAVORABLE DUE TO MODERATE VWS. THE INTENSITY IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 60 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS FUNNELING
TROUGH THE LUZON AND TAIWAN STRAITS FEEDS INTO THE LOWER-LEVEL
CYCLONE.  LANDFALL JUST WEST OF HONG KONG IS EXPECTED AROUND TAU
30. TS 15W WILL TRACK INLAND AND FULLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS FAIRLY GOOD GROUPING IN THE FORECASTED
TRAJECTORY. THE FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN
[颱風巨爵于2017-08-22 14:40编辑了帖子]
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kennethiumchan
强热带风暴
强热带风暴
  • 注册日期2016-05-26
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发布于:2017-08-22 17:22
15W 預報理由翻譯貼 #10 8月22日17時(082206Z)
1. 供專業氣象人員分析
2. 六小時總結與分析
熱帶風暴15W(天鴿)正集結在香港之東南偏東約276海里,在過去6小時內以12節速度向西北偏西移動。 強化多色調動畫圖像顯示,一個底層環流中心正快速整合,系統亦擁有一個直徑20海里的雲捲風眼。一幅於協調世界時22日05時10分由AMSR2衛星89吉赫頻道的探測圖像顯示,系統的對流組織正大幅改善,緊密深厚的對流螺旋雲帶正包裹著微波圖像顯示的風眼水汽頻道動畫圖像顯示系統北緣輻合正在減弱,從而使系統的極向流出輕微改善。系統強度根據分布於T3.5(55節)至T4.0(65節)之間的德法分析,而定於平均值而評定為60節,亦與形成中的風眼特徵相吻合。此外,基於系統風眼特徵,系統定位的信心有所改善/較高。熱帶風暴15W正沿著位於其北側,一個東西向的副熱帶高壓脊的南緣移動。雖然形成副熱帶高壓脊的兩個反氣旋之間有一個弱點,但是一個弱的中緯度短波槽正填補弱點並向東波動,因此並無動力機制引導系統向極向(按:北方)移動。
3. 預報理由
A. 對比上次預報,預報理由無明顯改變。34節風圈半徑因應最近仔細的ASCAT風場掃描而獲顯著調整。
B. 熱帶風暴15W將在目前深厚的副熱帶高壓脊的引導下繼續向西至西北偏西移動。此系統將在24小時後在香港西南登陸並移入內陸,隨即因陸地摩擦而迅速減弱。熱帶風暴15W將橫越4000至6000呎高的高山並在崎嶇地形下於48小時後消散。數值預報路徑相當一致,因此本次預報信心較高。熱帶風暴天鴿將繼續增強直至登陸,並在12小時後達到顛峰強度75節。系統準確的巔峰強度存在不確定性。若它能發展一強風眼,則能達到更高強度。大部分強度預報一致性良好,並顯示系統將在未來24小時內達到巔峰強度,介乎於65節至75節。

图片:wp1517 (1).gif


图片:15W_220600sams.jpg



WDPN31 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W (HATO) WARNING NR
10//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (HATO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 276 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH A FORMATIVE 20-NM DIAMETER EYE. A 220510Z AMSR2 89GHZ
IMAGE REVEALS SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION WITH
TIGHTLY-CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DECREASE IN CONVERGENT
FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH HAS ALLOWED
FOR SLIGHTLY IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM T3.5 (55 KNOTS) TO T4.0 (65 KNOTS), WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH
THE FORMATIVE EYE. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS IMPROVED / HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE PRESENCE OF THE EYE FEATURE. TS
15W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EAST-
WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A BREAK PRESENT BETWEEN TWO ANTICYCLONES FORMING
THE STR, A WEAK MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FILLING AND
PROPAGATING EASTWARD, THEREFORE THERE IS NO DYNAMIC MECHANISM TO
INITIATE ANY POLEWARD STEERING INFLUENCE.
   A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. THE 34-KNOT WIND RADII HAVE
BEEN ADJUSTED SIGNIFICANTLY BASED ON A DETAILED ANALYSIS OF A RECENT
ASCAT IMAGE.
   B. TS 15W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP-LAYERED STR
ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL JUST
SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG NEAR TAU 24 AND WILL TRACK INLAND, RAPIDLY
DECAYING DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. TS 15W IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY
TAU 48 AS IT TRACKS OVER ROUGH TERRAIN WITH MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS
RANGING FROM 4000 TO 6000 FEET. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. TS HATO IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY UNTIL IT APPROACHES LAND TO
A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS BY TAU 12. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXACT PEAK INTENSITY, WHICH COULD BE HIGHER IF A STRONG EYE
DEVELOPS. THE BULK OF INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING A PEAK INTENSITY RANGING FROM 65 TO 75 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS.//
NNNN
版主附加圖解:

图片:rgb_lalo-animated.gif

图片:wv_lalo-animated.gif

[颱風巨爵于2017-08-22 18:04编辑了帖子]
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风王2012
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
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发布于:2017-08-23 00:23
15W 预报理由翻译贴 #11 8月22日23時(082212Z)
1. 供专业气象人员分析
2. 六小时总结与分析
台风15W(天鸽)正位于香港东南偏东方约198海里处,在过去6小时内以每小时13海里的速度向西北偏西方向移动。 红外卫星增强动画图像显示深对流紧密围绕着一个明确的中心,底层环流中心正得到巩固。台风15W在22日09时(即北京时间22日下午17时,译者注)短暂地形成了一个风眼,但这个风眼最终因日际变化而减弱并且失去风眼特性(意为风眼趋于堵塞,译者注)。然而,频率为910亿赫兹的特别微波探测成像仪于22日10时32分(北京时间22日晚18时32分,译者注)探测的图像结果和于22日10时29分(北京时间22日晚18时29分,译者注)探测的频率为370亿赫兹的科氏微波影像均显示底层风眼周围的核心对流结构大大改善。水汽动画图像显示系统北侧边缘的底层流入正在转差,这使系统北侧的极向流出通道得到改善。当前强度被评定为65kts是基于德沃夏克分析强度数值(CI)结果分布在4.0(65kts)-4.5(77kts)间。综上,在上述微波图像的基础之上,我们对当前定位抱有较高的信心。台风15W现正沿着其东北方的副热带高压脊南部边缘移动。尽管形成副热带高压脊的两个反气旋间存在断裂处,但是一个较弱的中纬短波槽正填补这个断裂处并向东波动,因而并不存在驱使系统向北移动的而动力。
3. 预报理由
A. 对比上次预报,我们的预报理由无明显改变。
B. 在北侧副热带高压脊的引导之下,台风15W将会继续向西-西北西方向移动。在18小时内,系统将会在香港的西南方登陆并深入内陆,由于陆地的摩擦作用,它将迅速减弱。由于它将穿过地势崎岖的地区和海拔高达4000-6000英尺的山峰,它将在72小时内完全消散。各数值模型维持紧密共识,我们对预测路径的信心颇高。我们预计台风天鸽在它接近陆地的12小时内,其将达到巅峰强度75kts。在精确的巅峰强度上存在不确定性,如果出现一个发展成熟的风眼,它的巅峰强度会更高。强度预报基本一致,未来12小时内,台风15W的巅峰强度将在65kts-75kts之间。

图片:79_90507_47c4e77e0ccff54.gif

图片:15W_221200sair.jpg


图片:20170822.1032.f18.x.color37.15WHATO.65kts-974mb-207N-1173E.89pc.jpg

图片:sbo-2017-08-22-17-00.jpg


(CWB 17:00可见光云图,但实际上此时15W的风眼已经有些模糊)

图片:wgmsvishrd.GIF

图片:wgmswvir.GIF

图片:up50_2017082212.png


P.S. NRL官网被墙,努力翻墙中,目前找到一张,另一张尚在努力。。

WDPN31 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 15W (HATO) WARNING NR
11//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 15W (HATO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 198 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND A DEFINED CENTER. TY 15W
BRIEFLY FORMED AN EYE AROUND 22/0900Z BUT WEAKENED DIURNALLY AND
LOST THE EYE FEATURE. HOWEVER, A 221032Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE AND A
221029Z CORIOLIS 37GHZ IMAGE BOTH INDICATE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED
CORE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE SURROUNDING A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DECREASE IN CONVERGENT
FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH HAS ALLOWED
FOR IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT
65 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING  
FROM 4.0 (65 KNOTS) TO 4.5 (77 KNOTS). OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
MICROWAVE IMAGES. TY 15W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A BREAK PRESENT BETWEEN
TWO ANTICYCLONES FORMING THE STR, A WEAK MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS FILLING AND PROPAGATING EASTWARD, THEREFORE THERE IS NO
DYNAMIC MECHANISM TO INITIATE ANY POLEWARD STEERING INFLUENCE.
   A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 15W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP-LAYERED STR
ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL JUST
SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG NEAR TAU 18 AND WILL TRACK INLAND, RAPIDLY
DECAYING DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. TY 15W IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY
TAU 48 AS IT TRACKS OVER ROUGH TERRAIN WITH MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS
RANGING FROM 4000 TO 6000 FEET. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. TY HATO IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT APPROACHES LAND TO
A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS BY TAU 12. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXACT PEAK INTENSITY, WHICH COULD BE HIGHER IF A STRONG EYE
DEVELOPS. THE BULK OF INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING A PEAK INTENSITY RANGING FROM 65 TO 75 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT
12 HOURS.//
NNNN
[风王2012于2017-08-23 00:35编辑了帖子]
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kennethiumchan
强热带风暴
强热带风暴
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发布于:2017-08-23 05:00
15W 預報理由翻譯貼 #12 8月23日05時(082218Z)
1. 供專業氣象人員分析
2. 六小時總結與分析
颱風15W(天鴿)正集結在香港之東南約128海里,在過去6小時內以12節速度向西北偏西移動。 強化紅外線動畫圖像顯示,整合及爆發中的對流正緊緊包裹環流中心。不幸地,最近並沒有微波探測證實系統的對流中心結構,但紅外線影像指出眼牆似乎正在重建。系統定位有較高信心,這是基於最近的衛星定位與旋轉中心相當吻合。系統強度根據分布於T4.0(65節)至T4.5(77節)之間的德法分析,而定於下限值而評定為65節。高層環境分析表明,垂直風切變及極向流出有所改善,而徑向流出及輻散情況維持原狀。一道弱槽位於系統東北方,並造成下沉氣流,阻礙系統東部的對流活動。系統所在區域海溫溫暖(31攝氏度)並有利其發展。颱風15W正沿著位於其北側的深厚副熱帶高壓脊向西北偏西移動。
3. 預報理由
A. 對比上次預報,預報理由無明顯改變。
B. 颱風15W將在目前於其北方的深厚的副熱帶高壓脊的引導下繼續向西北偏西移動。大氣環境在12小時內仍然有利系統發展,使系統強度維持甚至輕微增強至巔峰強度70節。此系統將在12小時後在香港西南登陸並移入內陸。颱風15W將在崎嶇的地形摩擦影響下於36小時後迅速消散。數值預報路徑相當一致,因此本次預報信心較高。

WDPN31 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 15W (HATO) WARNING NR
12//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 15W (HATO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 128 NM SOUTHEAST OF
HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
CONSOLIDATING FLARING CONVECTION WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE
CIRCULATION CENTER. UNFORTUNATELY, THERE ARE NO RECENT MICROWAVE
SENSOR PASSES TO VALIDATE THE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEMS CONVECTIVE
CORE, BUT INFRARED IMAGERY SUGGESTS EYEWALL REFORMATION IS UNDERWAY
AND A LIKELY POSSIBILITY. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION WHICH IS BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE FIXES IN AGREEMENT,
CORRESPONDING TO THE CENTER OF ROTATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON THE LOWER ENVELOPE OF
SUBJECTIVE CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.0 TO
T4.5 (65 TO 77 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS IMPROVING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WHILE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND
ASSOCIATED DIFFLUENCE REMAINS PERSISTENT. A WEAK TROUGH WAS ANALYZED
SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM CREATING SOME SUBSIDENCE AND
HINDERING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON THE EASTERN SIDE. SSTS IN THE
REGION ARE ALSO VERY SUPPORTIVE NEAR 31 CELSIUS. CURRENTLY TY 15W IS
TRACKING WEST ?NORTHWEST ALONG A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH.      
   A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 15W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP-LAYERED STR ENTRENCHED TO
THE NORTH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY
FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS SUSTAINING THE CURRENT INTENSITY
WITH A MODEST INCREASE TO 70 KNOTS. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED JUST
SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG AROUND TAU 12 AND THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK INLAND. LAND INTERACTION WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN WILL
RAPIDLY DISSIPATE TY 15W BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
VERY TIGHT GROUPING WITH THE FORECAST TRACK PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.//    
NNNN
[颱風巨爵于2017-08-23 15:28编辑了帖子]
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