颱風巨爵
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[AL]背风群岛以东四级飓风“何塞”(12L.Jose) - 核心小巧强劲,再现惊人实测,与Irma双C4鼎立兼北大首次双130kt+;顺时针转圈后重整旗鼓,北上挟烈风大浪影响纽英伦 - NHC:135KT

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更多 发布于:2017-09-04 20:13
编扰资讯 (FNMOC)

94L.INVEST.25kts.1010mb.9.6N.35.4W

图片:20170904.1215.goes-13.vis.1km.94L.INVEST.25kts.1010mb.9.6N.35.4W.090pc.jpg



图片:two_atl_2d1.png

图片:two_atl_5d1.png


1. An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
depression is likely form later this week while the system moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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[颱風巨爵于2017-09-23 15:38编辑了帖子]
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Society is dead, long live society!
是誰令青山也變,變了俗氣的嘴臉?又是誰令碧海也變,變作濁流滔天?
【特輯】 淺談JTWC和預報理由
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发布于:2017-09-05 14:24
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Sep 5 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Irma, located a few hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands.

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands are gradually becoming better organized. Satellite data
indicate that this system is already producing winds near tropical
storm force. There is a strong likelihood that a tropical depression
or tropical storm will form within the next few days while the
disturbance moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the
tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. A trough of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico is producing disorganized shower activity and a few
squalls.  Environmental conditions are marginally conducive for
development, and this system could become a tropical depression
during the next couple of days while it meanders over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico.  Regardless of development, heavy rains
associated with this disturbance are likely over portions of eastern
Mexico during the remainder of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.


Forecaster Cangialosi

图片:two_atl_2d1.png

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2楼#
发布于:2017-09-05 20:32
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 5 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Irma, located a couple hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands.

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands
are gradually becoming better organized.  Conditions appear
conducive for continued development of this system.  There is a
high likelihood that a tropical depression or tropical storm will
form within the next day or two while the disturbance moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. A trough of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico is producing numerous showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are conducive for gradual development, and
this system is likely to become a tropical depression during the
next couple of days while it meanders over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rains associated with this
disturbance are likely over portions of eastern Mexico during the
remainder of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.


Forecaster Landsea

图片:two_atl_2d1.png

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hnwfnhee
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发布于:2017-09-05 20:42
北大 好久没这么热闹过了,,清华不行啊。。得加油
来自温岭偏僻农村的野夫
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约瑟但以理
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发布于:2017-09-05 22:02
已经升格12L
家住宝山吴淞
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让爱住我家
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5楼#
发布于:2017-09-05 22:24
补之前的

AL, 94, 2017090512,   , BEST,   0, 117N,  387W,  30, 1010, TD,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1013,  120,  60,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, M,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 025,

图片:94L TCFA.png

[让爱住我家于2017-09-05 22:25编辑了帖子]
“七子之歌·台湾” 我们是东海捧出的珍珠一串,琉球是我的群弟,我就是台湾。 我胸中还氤氲着郑氏的英魂,精忠的赤血点染了我的家传。 母亲,酷炎的夏日要晒死我了,赐我个号令,我还能背水一战。母亲!我要回来,母亲!
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颱風巨爵
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发布于:2017-09-06 01:51
NHC第一報,基於風場掃描直接升格兼命名,上望90節。預測Jose在海表温暖、垂直風切變微弱、中層大氣潮濕的優越環境下穩步增強,大致趨向背風群島東北方海域。由於現時位於美國東部上空的西風槽將打擊百慕達高壓脊,該脊將減弱東退並引致Irma於佛羅里達附近北上,屆時Jose亦已抵達脊場西緣,移速減慢並徘徊少動。受到Irma的流出影響,後期垂直風切變可能升高,令Jose維持強度。

图片:150131_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png



000
WTNT42 KNHC 051455
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 05 2017

Deep convection associated with the disturbance in the central
Atlantic has become more organized overnight.  Banding features
are starting to develop as seen in the first-light visible pictures
from the GOES and METEOSAT imagery.  Additionally, the ASCAT
scatterometers sampled the system at 1140Z and 1234Z, showing that a
well-defined - though slightly elongated - center had formed.  The
maximum believable winds from ASCAT were 35 kt.  Thus advisories
are being started on Tropical Storm Jose, the 10th named storm of
the Atlantic season.

With no history on the center location, the motion is estimated to
be west-northwest at 11 kt.  Jose should move toward the west or
west-northwest for the next three to four days at a slightly faster
rate of forward speed as it moves south of the deep-layer
Azores-Bermuda high.  In about four to five days, Jose should turn
toward the northwest and slow as it reaches the southwestern
periphery of the high.  The model guidance is in good agreement
with this scenario and the official forecast is based upon a blend
of the ECMWF-GFS-UKMET deterministic and ensemble model output.

The environment in which Jose is located in appears to be quite
conducive for development for the next three days as the SSTs are
very warm, the vertical shear is very low, and there is abundant
mid-level moisture.  By days four and five, however, the vertical
shear may increase in part due to the outflow from Hurricane Irma to
its west.  Thus the official intensity forecast show steady
intensification until day three, then remains flat through day
five.  This forecast is based upon the IVCN multi-model consensus
technique, but has the usual - large - uncertainties at the long
forecast range.

The ASCAT observations indicate that the tropical-storm-force winds
extend out about 40 nm from the center in the southeastern
quadrant.  The official size forecast suggests a gradual increase in
size, based upon the RVCN multi-model consensus approach.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/1500Z 12.3N  39.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  06/0000Z 12.8N  40.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  06/1200Z 13.4N  43.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  07/0000Z 13.9N  46.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  07/1200Z 14.4N  49.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  08/1200Z 16.0N  55.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  09/1200Z 18.5N  59.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  10/1200Z 21.5N  62.5W   90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Landsea

图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif

图片:WMBds112.png

图片:12L_intensity_latest.png

[颱風巨爵于2017-09-06 01:56编辑了帖子]
Society is dead, long live society!
是誰令青山也變,變了俗氣的嘴臉?又是誰令碧海也變,變作濁流滔天?
【特輯】 淺談JTWC和預報理由
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nicedavid12138
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7楼#
发布于:2017-09-06 22:10
可见光上蜜汁凹陷

描述:goes16

图片:GOES13452017249hgtsYm.jpg

goes16

图片:20170906.1245.goes-13.vis.1km.12L.JOSE.55kts.998mb.12.9N.43.8W.100pc.jpg

图片:2017AL12_4KMSRBDC_201709061315.jpg



稍早前的底层

描述:底层

图片:20170906.0946.f18.x.91h_1deg.12LJOSE.45kts-1004mb-124N-423W.57pc.jpg

底层

图片:20170906.0946.f18.x.pct.12LJOSE.45kts-1004mb-124N-423W.57pc.jpg

图片:20170906.1213.metopb.89rgb.12L.JOSE.55kts.998mb.12.9N.43.8W.085pc.jpg

[颱風巨爵于2017-09-07 02:02编辑了帖子]
我喜欢做云图,更喜欢看云图
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Mitch
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发布于:2017-09-07 13:02
用户被禁言,该主题自动屏蔽!
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颱風巨爵
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发布于:2017-09-07 13:06
Jose 今日凌晨18Z被NHC升格為颶風,連同飛機實測後升格的墨西哥灣Katia,成就北大西洋三颶鼎立。對上一次發生是2010年的Karl-Igor-Julia,各自位置與今天相似,全部達到MH強度,耐人尋味。

説回系統,Jose 在優越的環境下發展迅速,27小時從升格命名到獲評一級颶風。雖則環流細小,但結構扎實,深厚對流呈緊密旋捲而低層已具風眼雛形,至最近數小時高層亦有跡象在構築風眼。

現所處海域垂直風切變微弱,海表温度達到29°C以上,前方是高潛熱區,有利系統穩步增強。NHC新報上望105節的MH強度,預測趨向背風群島東北方海域,但近幾報因應模式集合持續西調,風暴存在直接吹襲群島的可能。

考慮到後期與強大颶風Irma的距離拉近,受其流出影響風切或會上升,而北面短波槽東傳時會引入乾空氣,Irma引致的冷水上翻程度仍是未知之數,預測Jose會逐漸減弱。

图片:sep16_sat.jpg


Karl-Igor-Julia (From WunderBlog)

图片:_97707642_three_storms_noaa.png


Katia-Irma-Jose (From BBC/NOAA)

图片:bd_lalo-animated.gif


結構扎實,構築風眼

图片:aal12_2017090700_track_early.png


趨向背風群島東北方海域

補上21Z報文:

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Jose Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
500 PM AST Wed Sep 06 2017

Jose has continued to become better organized.  Banding convection
has become very symmetric around the center, and the upper-level
outflow has become well established in all quadrants, despite the
presence of Hurricane Irma to the west.  An eye-like dimple has
occasionally been observed in visible imagery during the afternoon.
The initial intensity is now 65 kt, based on the latest Dvorak
intensity estimate from TAFB.  There is no reason to believe that
the recent intensification trend will end soon.  In fact, the SHIPS
Rapid Intensification Index gives a 48 percent chance of
intensification of 30 kt (or more) in the next 24 h.  My forecast is
just shy of that, and is close to the intensification rate shown by
the HWRF for the next 36 h.  After about 48-72 h, the vertical wind
shear is forecast to increase, and all of the models forecast
weakening. Overall, the NHC forecast is a little above the model
consensus for the first 72 h, but close to IVCN by the end of the
forecast.

A pair of late-arriving ASCAT passes and recent visible imagery
indicate that Jose is a little farther north than previously
estimated.  The initial motion estimate is 285/14 kt.  Due to the
northward shift of the initial position, the forecast has been
adjusted in that direction for the first 48 h.  However, the
reasoning behind the forecast has not changed, and Jose should
continue on a fairly steady west-northwest track, steered primarily
by the subtropical ridge. After that time, a mid-level trough should
cause the ridge to retreat eastward, allowing Jose to gain more
latitude. The global models, especially the ECMWF, are suggesting
that this turn may occur a little later than previously expected,
and have shifted westward a little bit.  The new NHC forecast at 96
and 120 h is very close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models, and
is about a degree west of the previous forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/2100Z 13.9N  45.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  07/0600Z 14.5N  48.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  07/1800Z 15.1N  51.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  08/0600Z 15.8N  54.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  08/1800Z 16.4N  56.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  09/1800Z 18.5N  60.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  10/1800Z 21.5N  63.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  11/1800Z 25.0N  67.5W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

NNNN

图片:下載.png

图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif

图片:20170906.2058.f18.x.37h.12LJOSE.65kts-994mb-137N-451W.81pc.jpg

[颱風巨爵于2017-09-08 12:35编辑了帖子]
Society is dead, long live society!
是誰令青山也變,變了俗氣的嘴臉?又是誰令碧海也變,變作濁流滔天?
【特輯】 淺談JTWC和預報理由
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