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[EP]东太平洋三级飓风“欧迪思”(15E.Otis) - Katia残余发展而来,命名后迅速增强,发展超乎预期 - MAX:100KT

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更多 发布于:2017-09-11 05:44
整宿没睡

图片:2017EP95_1KMSRVIS_201709102100.GIF



1. An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with the remnants of
Katia, located a couple hundred miles south of southwestern Mexico,
is showing some signs or organization. Environmental conditions are
not favorable for significant development as the system moves
westward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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命运总是搞笑的,无处不在作弄着人。你脏兮兮,它笑嘻嘻。但是它让我遇见你。
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1楼#
发布于:2017-09-11 15:50
NHC认为这是Katia残余

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Sep 10 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. The remnants of Katia located about 300 miles west-southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico continue to produce an area of showers and
thunderstorms.  Strong upper-level winds should limit development of
this system while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph during the next
couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

2. A trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the
southern coast of Mexico is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form later this week while the system moves slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

3. Another area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred
miles south-southwest of the Baja California peninsula by the middle
of the week.  Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for gradual development after that time while it moves northward or
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.


Forecaster Cangialosi/Ramos

图片:two_pac_2d1.png

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发布于:2017-09-11 20:21
现在2天内生成的机率已经是30%了
[追风的小孩于2017-09-11 20:23编辑了帖子]
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发布于:2017-09-12 06:31
ABPZ20 KNHC 111745
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Sep 11 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The remnants of Katia, located about 500 miles west-southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico, are associated with a well-defined low pressure
center.  Showers and thunderstorms with this system have become
better organized during the last day or so.  Despite upper-level
winds appearing to be hostile for development over the next few
days, any additional improvement in the convective organization
could lead to the formation of a tropical cyclone while the system
moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the
southern coast of Mexico is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form later this week while the system moves slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Another area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred
miles south-southwest of the Baja California peninsula by the middle
of the week.  Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for gradual development after that time while it moves slowly
northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.


$$
Forecaster Landsea
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4楼#
发布于:2017-09-12 09:28
竟然升格了

图片:2017EP15_SRSNPPTN_201709112007.png



Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152017
300 PM MDT Mon Sep 11 2017

The remnants of Atlantic Hurricane Katia have redeveloped after
reaching the Pacific Ocean a couple of days ago.  The system
maintained a mid-level circulation while transiting the high terrain
of Mexico, but had lost its surface center.  Yesterday, deep
convection began in association with the mid-level circulation and
today a well-defined surface center formed.  While it was originally
thought that the convection would be sporadic because of the
moderate vertical shear, the deep convection has instead persisted
close to the system's center during the last several hours.  Since
the system now meets the definition of a tropical cyclone,
advisories are initiated as Tropical Depression Fifteen.

The depression is moving toward the west at 13 kt, steered
primarily by the deep-layer ridge to its north.  The official track
forecast is a westward or west-southwestward motion at a slower
rate of forward speed during the next two days, then a turn back
toward the west or west-northwest at days 3 and 4.  This forecast
is based upon a blend of the GFS and ECMWF global models, as the
remaining guidance either doesn't know about the depression or
unrealistically intensifies it and takes it toward the north.

The system likely will not become very substantial.  The moderate
shear should continue, while the depression heads toward cool SSTs
and dry air.  The official intensity forecast shows just modest
strengthening to a low-end tropical storm in about a day, before
weakening begins.  Deep convection may cease in about three days,
marking the system's transition to a remnant low.  The intensity
forecast is based upon the LGEM/DSHIP statistical guidance as the
mesoscale dynamical models spin the depression up to near hurricane
strength, which is not plausible.  If the system does reach
tropical storm intensity - by no means assured, then it
would be named "Max", not "Katia".


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/2100Z 16.4N 112.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  12/0600Z 16.2N 114.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  12/1800Z 15.8N 116.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  13/0600Z 15.4N 118.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  13/1800Z 15.3N 119.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 72H  14/1800Z 15.7N 121.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  15/1800Z 16.0N 123.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Landsea
[iam最小值于2017-09-12 10:28编辑了帖子]
命运总是搞笑的,无处不在作弄着人。你脏兮兮,它笑嘻嘻。但是它让我遇见你。
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5楼#
发布于:2017-09-14 13:11
Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152017
800 PM PDT Wed Sep 13 2017

During the afternoon hours, the mid-level center of the depression
became completely removed from the now exposed low-level center.  A
small tight swirl embedded within a broader, elongated, low-level
circulation is still evident, but deep convection is limited to a
band displaced about 60 n mi to the west of the center.  The initial
intensity has been held at 30 kt, based on earlier ASCAT data. Given
the poor convective structure of the depression, little change in
intensity is expected for the next day or so. After that time, the
GFS and ECMWF both forecast that the upper-level wind pattern will
become more favorable for intensification.  Once that happens, most
of the intensity guidance forecasts that the cyclone will begin to
steadily strengthen, especially after about 72 h.  My forecast is a
little higher than the previous NHC forecast at 96 h and 120 h, and
is very close to IVCN.

The depression has been nearly stationary for the past 6 hours. The
initial motion estimate assumes at least some movement, and is a
rather uncertain 270/02 kt.  The global models agree that the
cyclone will remain trapped in weak steering flow throughout the
forecast period, but vary greatly on how much it will move.  A
complicating factor is that the GFS suggests that the low-level
center may reform underneath the mid-level center to the south. My
forecast assumes that the current center of circulation will
persist, but a larger change may be required if such a reformation
occurs. The new official track forecast is slower than the previous
one for the first 36 h, but is close after that, and still shows
little movement throughout the forecast period.  The track forecast
is based heavily on the ECMWF model, especially beyond day 2.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/0300Z 15.1N 121.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  14/1200Z 15.2N 122.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  15/0000Z 15.4N 123.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  15/1200Z 15.5N 124.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  16/0000Z 15.3N 124.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  17/0000Z 15.5N 125.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  18/0000Z 16.0N 125.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  19/0000Z 16.5N 125.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

图片:023951_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif

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6楼#
发布于:2017-09-15 13:45
Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152017
800 PM PDT Thu Sep 14 2017

Convection has increased a little near the alleged center of the
depression, but a low-level center is difficult to identify in
recent AMSR and SSMIS imagery.  A larger SW-NE elongated
circulation is still present, however, and it is possible that
the center is reforming closer to the convection within the larger
cyclonic envelope.  In an absence of any other data to use, the
intensity has been held at 30 kt since Dvorak estimates from TAFB
and SAB are unchanged from 6 hours ago.

Assuming the center will soon consolidate under the convection, some
intensification over the forecast period is still expected since the
shear is low and SSTs are fairly warm.  By the end of the forecast
period, drier air is expected to inhibit convection, which should
cause the cyclone to begin to weaken.  No significant changes have
been made to the intensity forecast, which is based on a selective
ensemble of DSHP, LGEM, and HWRF.

Given the poor definition of the low-level circulation, the initial
motion estimate is highly uncertain, but estimated to be 285/5 kt.
The cyclone is still embedded within weak steering flow, and all of
the global models forecast that it will remain so for the entirety
of the forecast period.  While the spread is fairly high, in general
the models still forecast that a deep-layer trough well to the north
of the depression should allow for a slow northward drift after 48
h.  The NHC track forecast remains close to the corrected consensus
HCCA, and is fairly close to the previous forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0300Z 15.8N 124.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  15/1200Z 15.9N 124.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  16/0000Z 15.8N 125.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  16/1200Z 15.7N 125.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  17/0000Z 15.9N 125.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  18/0000Z 16.5N 125.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  19/0000Z 17.5N 125.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  20/0000Z 17.7N 126.5W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

图片:025320_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif

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发布于:2017-09-16 23:38
Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152017
800 AM PDT Sat Sep 16 2017

Deep convection associated with the depression has increased
this morning, with the low-level center estimated to be near the
middle of the thunderstorm activity.  Based on the improved
organization of the cloud pattern since the time of the ASCAT pass
overnight, the initial wind speed is nudged upward to 30 kt.

The depression is over relatively warm SSTs and embedded in fairly
low wind shear conditions, but it also is situated in a dry
atmospheric environment.  These mixed factors should cause the
system to remain relatively steady state for the next few days,
though it is possible that the cyclone becomes a tropical storm
during that time frame. Beyond a few days, the wind shear is
expected to increase and SSTs lower along the expected path.  These
more hostile conditions should cause the depression to weaken and
become a remnant low in 4 to 5 days.  The NHC intensity forecast is
an update of the previous one, and in line with the bulk of the
guidance.

The tropical cyclone continues to drift westward in weak steering
currents. The models are in agreement that the depression should
turn slowly northward during the next day or two when it moves
along the west side of a weak mid-level ridge. Once the system
loses convection, a turn back toward the west is predicted. Only
minor changes were made to the previous NHC track forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/1500Z 15.8N 126.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  17/0000Z 15.9N 126.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  17/1200Z 16.3N 127.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  18/0000Z 16.9N 127.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  18/1200Z 17.6N 127.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  19/1200Z 18.2N 127.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  20/1200Z 17.8N 129.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
120H  21/1200Z 16.7N 132.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

图片:145123_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif

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发布于:2017-09-17 00:06
环流细小,对流如果能够持续下去有望命名
命运总是搞笑的,无处不在作弄着人。你脏兮兮,它笑嘻嘻。但是它让我遇见你。
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9楼#
发布于:2017-09-17 07:37
命名Otis
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical

Storm Norma, located a couple of hundred miles south of Cabo San

Lucas, Mexico, and on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Otis, located

more than 1200 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja

California peninsula.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tropical Storm Otis Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152017
200 PM PDT Sat Sep 16 2017

The system has been maintaining a small area of deep convection
near the low-level center for the past several hours.  The latest
Dvorak classification from TAFB and ADT values from CIMSS at the
University of Wisconsin have increased, and now support raising the
initial intensity to 35 kt, making the system a tropical storm.

Otis is expected to remain over 27 deg C waters and in a low
wind shear environment for the next couple of days, and this should
allow the cyclone to at least maintain its strength.  Beyond that
time, an increase in shear, drier air, and cooler waters along the
expected track should cause weakening, and Otis is now
forecast to become a remnant low by day 4.  The NHC intensity
forecast is slightly higher than the previous one, based on the
higher initial intensity.

The tropical cyclone continues to drift westward in weak steering
currents.  The models remain in agreement that the storm should
turn slowly northward during the next day or two when it moves
along the west side of a weak mid-level ridge. Once the system
loses convection, a turn back toward the west or west-southwest is
predicted.  The NHC track forecast is a little to the west of the
previous one in the short term to account for the more westward
initial position.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/2100Z 15.9N 127.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  17/0600Z 16.0N 127.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  17/1800Z 16.4N 127.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  18/0600Z 17.2N 127.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  18/1800Z 17.9N 127.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  19/1800Z 18.0N 128.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  20/1800Z 17.0N 130.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  21/1800Z 15.8N 133.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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