933954
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2017-2018年度斐济责任区编号系统讨论帖

楼主#
更多 发布于:2017-10-01 13:47
说明: 1、本帖专门用于收集和讨论斐济气象部门(FMS)对其责任区内编号的扰动,当NRL编号或者FMS发“扰动报告”(Disturbance Advisory)时可新开主题帖。
2、本帖每年度一帖,开帖时间一般为10月初,如果FMS编扰动早于此时间则以编号时间为开帖时间(FMS官方认定的风季时间为11月1日至次年4月30日)。任何会员均可开帖,首楼附上本说明即可,注意:本帖开帖不加分
3、帖子时效为当年开帖~次年5月31日,到期后如无特殊情况则移入档案版。
4、FMS新编扰动后,在本帖下发帖说明,取最早的会员给予威望3、金钱3的奖励。建议会员发帖后附上合适的云图并进行适当的说明或标注,方便其他会员更直观地浏览
5、一些有用的网址及信息:
FMS官网:http://www.met.gov.fj/
FMS发编号扰动的页面:http://www.met.gov.fj/current_warnings.php(网址已更换,新网址为http://www.met.gov.fj/current_warnings_b.php)即官网左边有个Current Warnings点进去。此页面最右边一栏最下面的Tropical Disturbance Summary就能看到当前编号的扰动。
FMS热带云团3天展望:http://www.met.gov.fj/tc_outlook.pdf
一个南半球云图及分析图汇集的网址,可用来发编号时的云图(自己定位):
http://www.cyclonextreme.com/cyclonecaledonie.htm
NOAA的南半球云图:http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/
FMS责任区范围:

图片:fj.png


自动更新云图:
澳大利亚附近


南太平洋(偶尔有错误陆地边界乱入)
[933954于2017-11-19 10:40编辑了帖子]
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933954
强热带风暴
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1楼#
发布于:2017-11-02 13:07
今天突然看见有OUTLOOK中有发展评级图,不知道以前有没有
TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 - DAY OUTLOOK
Equator to 25S and 160E to 120W
Issue Time: 0400 UTC Thursday 02
nd November 2017
Next Issue: 0400 UTC Friday 03
rd November 2017
Issued By: Tropical Cyclone Centre, RSMC, Nadi
Existing Tropical Cyclones:
Nil.
Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the region in each of the next three days, TILL 05
th
November, 2017:
Friday 03
rd November
The probability of tropical cyclone formation in the area is Very Low.

图片:360截图20171102130608702.jpg

[933954于2017-11-02 13:13编辑了帖子]
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9914dan
论坛版主-副热带高压
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2楼#
发布于:2017-12-20 23:47
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 200839 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD04F [1004HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 04.0S 167.0E
AT 200600UTC. TD04F SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES-15
IR/EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.

CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH OF SUPPOSED LLCC. ORGANISATION
REMAINS POOR. THE SYSTEM LIES SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A MODERATE
TO HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EXTENDS UPTO
850HPA. SST AROUD 29 DEGREES CELCIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP  THE SYSTEM  AND SLOWLY MOVE IT
SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

*********************************************************************
************
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.
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meow
世纪风王
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3楼#
发布于:2017-12-21 01:04
9914dan锛歍ropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 200839 UTC.

TROPICAL DI...
鍥炲埌鍘熷笘
FMS的编号越来越浮滥了……
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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iam最小值
论坛版主-副热带高压
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4楼#
发布于:2017-12-21 22:15
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD04F [1002HPA] WAS RE-ANALYSED NEAR 10.8S
171.8E AT 220900UTC. TD04F SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON
HIMAWARI-8 IR/EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.

CONVECTION PERSISTENT AND DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF SUPPOSED LLCC.
ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. THE SYSTEM LIES JUST SOUTH OF AN UPPER
RIDGE IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS
EXTENDS UPTO 700HPA. SST AROUD 29 DEGREES CELCIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP  THE SYSTEM  AND SLOWLY MOVE IT
SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

图片:SHGMSIR.JPG

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933954
强热带风暴
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5楼#
发布于:2018-01-26 17:41
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD05F CENTER {[998HPA]} WAS ANALYSED NEAR 14.0S
160.2E AT 260900UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI
IR/VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATIONS AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST
AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.

OUTFLOW GOOD TO EAST WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO EAST. OVERALL
ORGANISATIONS HAS IMPROVED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
EXTENDS UPTO 500HPA. SYSTEM LIES IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH
MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEST 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.
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ray790601
热带低压
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6楼#
发布于:2018-03-21 11:12
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 202317 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD11F CENTRE {[1003HPA]} WAS ANALYSED NEAR 9.9S
AND 161.8E AT 202100UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION BASED ON HIMAWARI-8
VIS/IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT EAST OF SUPPOSED LLCC.
ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EXTENDS UP TO
700HPA. SYSTEM LIES ALONG AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVE IT
SOUTHWARDS WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

*********************************************************************
***************

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

图片:11f.png

[ray790601于2018-03-21 11:19编辑了帖子]
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