颱風巨爵
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2013-08-03
  • 最后登录2018-06-20
  • 粉丝52
  • 关注1
  • 发帖数399
  • 来自
阅读:2219回复:15

[IO]孟加拉湾低压BOB 05(98B) - 19.9N 85.6E

楼主#
更多 发布于:2017-10-16 09:44
98B INVEST 171016 0000  15.0N   90.2E IO     15   NA

图片:20171016.0110.himawari-8.vis.98B.INVEST.15kts.994mb.15N.90.2E.100pc.jpg

[颱風巨爵于2017-10-20 20:16编辑了帖子]
2条评分, 金钱 +3 威望 +3
喜欢1 评分2

最新喜欢:

追风的小孩追风的小孩
一上高樓萬里愁,蒹葭楊柳似汀洲。溪雲初起日沉閣,山雨欲來風滿樓。
Mitch
强台风
强台风
  • 注册日期2013-11-14
  • 最后登录2018-06-16
  • 粉丝108
  • 关注0
  • 发帖数5118
  • 来自
1楼#
发布于:2017-10-16 18:45
IMD看好发展,预测72小时内加强为低压。
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
追风的小孩
热带风暴
热带风暴
  • 注册日期2017-08-14
  • 最后登录2018-06-18
  • 粉丝53
  • 关注645
  • 发帖数455
  • 来自
2楼#
发布于:2017-10-16 19:37
孟加拉湾风季能从此开始吗?
广西壮族自治区贵港市港北区荷城小学4年级3班学生
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
iam最小值
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2011-07-16
  • 最后登录2018-06-20
  • 粉丝233
  • 关注25
  • 发帖数12946
  • 来自
3楼#
发布于:2017-10-16 20:24
DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 16.10.2017
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND
ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 72 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF 16.10.2017 BASED ON
0300 UTC OF 16.10.2017.

BAY OF BENGAL & ANDAMAN SEA:
YESTERDAY’S LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL PERSISTS. IT IS VERY
LIKELY TO INTENSIFY INTO A DEPRESSION DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. SUBSEQUENTLY, IT IS ALSO
VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS REACHING NORTH
ANDHRA PRADESH AND ADJOINING SOUTH ODISHA COAST BY MORNING OF 19TH OCTOBER,
2017. BROKEN LOW/ MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION
LIE OVER WESTCENTRAL & ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE AREA. BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO
INTENSE CONVECTION LIE OVER REST BAY OF BENGAL SOUTH OF LATTITUDE 17.0 N &
ANDAMAN SEA.

PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS DURING NEXT 72 HRS:
24 HOURS 24-48 HOURS 48-72 HOURS
MODERATE HIGH HIGH
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
刚打酱油回来
超强台风
超强台风
  • 注册日期2012-11-16
  • 最后登录2018-06-21
  • 粉丝194
  • 关注6
  • 发帖数6300
  • 来自
4楼#
发布于:2017-10-17 00:31
补前一天的

WTIN20 DEMS 150600
                         TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 15.10.2017
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND
ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 72 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF 15.10.2017 BASED ON
0300 UTC OF 15.10.2017.
BAY OF BENGAL & ANDAMAN SEA:
A LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS FORMED AND LAY OVER CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL (BOB) AT
                          TH
0300 UTC OF TODAY, THE 15 OCTOBER, 2017. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO CONCENTRATE INTO A
DEPRESSION DURING NEXT 48 HOURS. SUBSEQUENTLY, IT WOULD INTENSIFY FURTHER AND
MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS, REACHING SOUTH ODISHA\u2013NORTH ANDHRA PRADESH COAST BY
  TH
19 OCTOBER, MORNING. BROKEN LOW /MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO
VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LIE OVER SOUTHWEST BOB AND NEIGHBOURHOOD IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA.
BROKEN LOW /MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION LIE
                                      0
OVER REST BOB, SOUTH OF LATITUDE 15.0 N AND ANDAMAN SEA.
PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS DURING NEXT 72 HRS:
            24 HOURS                24-48 HOURS             48-72 HOURS
               LOW                   MODERATE                   HIGH
人民的名义
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
刚打酱油回来
超强台风
超强台风
  • 注册日期2012-11-16
  • 最后登录2018-06-21
  • 粉丝194
  • 关注6
  • 发帖数6300
  • 来自
5楼#
发布于:2017-10-17 08:47

图片:WMBas50.png



图片:abiosair.jpg


ABIO10 PGTW 170030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/170030Z-171800ZOCT2017//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
14.4N 87.6E, APPROXIMATELY 430 NM EAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 16/1317Z AMSU-B
89GHZ IMAGE REVEALED LIMITED BANDING, WEAK STRUCTURE, AND ONLY
ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION. A 16/1509Z ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS AN
ELONGATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH ISOLATED 30 KNOT WINDS INDICATED
IN THE SW QUADRANT, AND 15-25 KNOT WINDS ELSEWHERE IN THE
CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
WITH WEAK EASTERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW. MODERATE DIFFLUENT FLOW
CONCENTRATED IN THE WESTERN QUADRANTS IS FUELING THE REGION OF
MAXIMUM CONVECTION. 98B IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-20 KT) WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT LEADING TO
HIGHER SHEAR VALUES (>25 KT) IMMEDIATELY TO THE SOUTH. SST VALUES
ARE >28C, WITH HIGHER VALUES TOWARDS THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE BAY
OF BENGAL. THE GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1).//
[刚打酱油回来于2017-10-17 08:51编辑了帖子]
人民的名义
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
meow
世纪风王
世纪风王
  • 注册日期2011-09-08
  • 最后登录2018-06-21
  • 粉丝424
  • 关注38
  • 发帖数17423
  • 来自
6楼#
发布于:2017-10-17 23:08
仍是T1.0。

TCIN50 DEMS 171200
SATELLITE BULLETIN BASED ON INSAT PIC OF 171200 UTC (.)
REGION COVERED BETWEEN LAT 50.0oN TO 30.0oS AND LONG 40.0oE TO 125.0oE (.)
VORTEX (BOB) :-
VORTEX OVER C BAY & N/HOOD CENTRED WITH IN HALF A DEG OF 13.3N/85.5E (.) INTENSITY T1.0 (.) ASSTD BKN LOW/MED CLOUDS WITH EMBDD INT TO V INT CONVTN OVER C BAY ADJ S BAY BET LAT 10.0N TO 16.0N WEST OF LONG 88.0E (.) MINIMUM CTT MINUS 93 DEG C (.)
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
刚打酱油回来
超强台风
超强台风
  • 注册日期2012-11-16
  • 最后登录2018-06-21
  • 粉丝194
  • 关注6
  • 发帖数6300
  • 来自
7楼#
发布于:2017-10-18 00:00

图片:bd_lalo-animated.gif


TCIN50 DEMS 171500
SATELLITE BULLETIN BASED ON INSAT PIC OF 171500 UTC (.)
REGION COVERED BETWEEN LAT 50.0?N TO 30.0?S AND LONG 40.0?E TO 125.0?E (.)

VORTEX (BOB) :-
VORTEX OVER C BAY & N/HOOD CENTRED WITH IN HALF A DEG OF 13.4N/85.5E (.) INTENSITY
T1.0 (.) ASSTD BKN LOW/MED CLOUDS WITH EMBDD INT TO V INT CONVTN OVER WC ADJ SW
BAY BET LAT 10.0N TO 19.0N WEST OF LONG 87.0E (.) MINIMUM CTT MINUS 73 DEG C (.)


TXIO26 KNES 171551
TCSNIO
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (98B)
B.  17/1445Z
C.  13.5N
D.  87.1E
E.  FIVE/MET-8
F.  T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR
H.  REMARKS...DT=0 BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN DEFINED BY LOOSE CLOUD
LINES, PROXIMITY LESS THAN 1.25 DG FROM OVERCAST, VERY SMALL
SIZE. PT=1.0. MET=1.0. FT IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS BARRING WEAKENING AT
NIGHT DURING FIRST 24 HRS.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL

...SCHWARTZ
[刚打酱油回来于2017-10-18 02:13编辑了帖子]
人民的名义
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
刚打酱油回来
超强台风
超强台风
  • 注册日期2012-11-16
  • 最后登录2018-06-21
  • 粉丝194
  • 关注6
  • 发帖数6300
  • 来自
8楼#
发布于:2017-10-18 02:24

图片:20171017.1246.f17.x.91h_1deg.98BINVEST.20kts-1007mb-135N-868E.85pc.jpg



图片:WMBds208.png



图片:abiosair.jpg


ABIO10 PGTW 171800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/171800Z-181800ZOCT2017//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.4N 87.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 86.8E, APPROXIMATELY 345
NM SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND
LOW LEVEL FLOW WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC. A 17/1246Z
SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE REVEALED FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN
ELONGATED CENTER WITH A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION. A 17/0342Z ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS A CIRCULATION WITH
ISOLATED 30 KNOT WINDS INDICATED IN THE SW QUADRANT, AND 25-30 KNOT
WINDS ELSEWHERE IN THE CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK EASTERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW.
MODERATE DIFFLUENT FLOW CONCENTRATED IN THE WESTERN QUADRANTS IS
FUELING THE REGION OF MAXIMUM CONVECTION. 98B IS LOCATED IN AN AREA
OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 KT) WITH HIGHER SHEAR VALUES
(>25 KT) IMMEDIATELY TO THE SOUTH, BUT MORE FAVORABLE (<15 KT)
VALUES TO THE NORTH. SST VALUES ARE >28C, WITH HIGHER VALUES TOWARDS
THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE BAY OF BENGAL. THE GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
[刚打酱油回来于2017-10-18 02:36编辑了帖子]
人民的名义
回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
iam最小值
论坛版主-副热带高压
论坛版主-副热带高压
  • 注册日期2011-07-16
  • 最后登录2018-06-20
  • 粉丝233
  • 关注25
  • 发帖数12946
  • 来自
9楼#
发布于:2017-10-18 17:38
DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 18.10.2017

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL
AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 72 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF
18.10.2017 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 18.10.2017.

BAY OF BENGAL & ANDAMAN SEA:

YESTERDAY\U2019S WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER CENTRAL AND
ADJOINING SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL LAY OVER WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL AT
0300UTC OF TODAY, THE 18TH OCTOBER 2017. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO
INTENSIFY INTO A DEPRESSION DURING NEXT 24 HOURS AND MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS REACHING ODISHA AND ADJOINING NORTH ANDHRA
PRADESH COAST BY EVENING OF 19TH OCTOBER, 2017.

ACCORDING TO LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY, INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T
1.0. AND THE VORTEX LAY CENTRED NEAR LAT 14.00N AND LON. 85.50E.
ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY
INTENSE CONVECTION LIE OVER WESTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING SOUTHWEST BAY
OF BENGAL BETWEEN LATTITUDE 12.5N & 17.0N AND WEST OF LONGITUDE
85.0E. MINIMUM CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE IS MINUS 93.00C. BROKEN
LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION LIE
OVER EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL, ANDAMAN SEA, GULF OF MARTBAN AND
TENASSERIM COAST.

SCATTEROMETER AND MULTI-SATELLITE BASED WIND ANALYSIS SUGGEST
1-MINUTE AVERAGE SURFACE WIND SPEED OF ABOUT 20-25 KNOTS. THE WINDS
ARE HIGHER IN THE NORTHEAST SECTOR. THE BUOY LOCATED NEAR 14.00N AND
87.00E, REPORTED MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (MSLP) OF 1002.3 HPA AND
WIND SPEED OF 190/10 KNOTS. ANOTHER BUOY LOCATED NEAR 13.50N AND
84.20E, REPORTED MSLP OF 1004.8 HPA. THE OTHER BUOY NEAR 16.50N AND
88.00E, REPORTED MSLP OF 1003.1 HPA AND WIND SPEED OF 100/16 KNOTS.
THERE IS A FALL OF PRESSURE OVER THESE BUOY LOCATIONS BY ABOUT 1-2
HPA DURING PAST 24 HRS.

THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 1002 HPA AND THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ABOUT 20 KNOTS GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS.

PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS DURING NEXT 72 HRS:

24 HOURS   24-48 HOURS   48-72 HOURS
HIGH        HIGH          -

图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif

回复(0) 喜欢(0)     评分
上一页
游客

返回顶部