meow
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[WP]1722号热带气旋“苏拉”(27W.Saola)机构发报专帖

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更多 发布于:2017-10-19 04:27

图片:wp9317.gif


WTPN22 PGTW 182030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 250 NM RADIUS OF 15.3N 149.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 181800Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 147.8E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING EASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.1N 145.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 147.8E, APPROXIMATELY
670 NM SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO. THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W)
PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 145.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.1N
145.6E, APPROXIMATELY 11 NM WEST OF SAIPAN. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION LOCATED DIRECTLY
OVER A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AN 181536Z 89GHZ
AMSR-2 MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES DISTINCT BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM
THE SOUTH, WITH DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KT), WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS FUELING DEEP
CONVECTION. SSTS ARE FAVORABLE, IN THE 30-31C RANGE. GLOBAL MODEL
TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE DIFFERS GREATLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. SOME MODELS PREDICT AN EASTWARD TRACK, TURNING NORTHWARD THEN
RECURVING, WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. OTHERS PREDICT
SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION AND LITTLE TO NO CONSOLIDATION. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
192030Z.//
NNNN
[meow于2017-10-24 15:04编辑了帖子]
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Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
dgitg5266
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发布于:2017-10-20 08:04
WTPN33 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/182021ZOCT2017//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 001    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   191800Z --- NEAR 12.2N 151.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.2N 151.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z --- 12.1N 151.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z --- 12.8N 150.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z --- 13.6N 148.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z --- 14.9N 147.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 19 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 22.2N 144.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 21 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 30.6N 143.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 12.2N 151.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (TWENTYSEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 282
NM NORTH OF CHUUK, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 10
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z, 200900Z, 201500Z AND 202100Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 25W (LAN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN22 PGTW 182030).//
NNNN
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meow
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发布于:2017-10-20 09:16
JTWC/27W/#1/10-19 18Z Prognostic Reasoning
(幫忙補路徑圖)

图片:wp2717.gif


WDPN33 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (TWENTYSEVEN)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (TWENTYSEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 282
NM NORTH OF CHUUK, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION CENTRALLY LOCATED OVER A LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 191704Z 89GHZ MHS MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICTS A DEEP CONVECTIVE MASS WITH EVIDENCE OF FORMATIVE
BANDING IN BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLES. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW SATELLITE
FIX AND THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T1.0
TO T1.5 (25 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A 191138Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE
SHOWING 25 KNOTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW (5-10 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS TRACKING THROUGH AN AREA OF WARM
(31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). TD 27W IS LACKING AN
ORGANIZED OUTFLOW CHANNEL, HOWEVER, IT IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF A TUTT CELL. THUS THE LIMITED POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS BEING ENHANCED
BY THE TUTT CELL. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
IS CURRENTLY QUASI-STATIONARY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND A BUILDING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W.
   B. TD 27W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK MORE NORTH-NORTHWEST
AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS. GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST TO
OCCUR THROUGH TAU 24, PEAKING AT 35 KNOTS. AROUND TAU 24, THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME UNFAVORABLE DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, THE RESULT OF THE SYSTEM?S PROXIMITY TO TY 25W. AFTER TAU
48, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND AS IT INTERACTS WITH
TYPHOON 25W, EVENTUALLY BECOMING ABSORBED BY TY 25W BY TAU 96.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LATER TAUS FOR
THE TRACK DIRECTION, HOWEVER, THE INITIAL PERIOD OF QUASI-
STATIONARY MOTION CAUSES A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY, LENDING LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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    2017-10-20 09:19
Meow, a sex-starved pussy, gets aroused when everyone at the pool stares at her white and soaked up swimsuit turning see-through and exposing her tempting body.
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t02436
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发布于:2017-10-20 10:51
JTWC/27W/#02/10-20 00Z

图片:wp2717.gif


WTPN33 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 27W (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 002    
   UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   200000Z --- NEAR 11.3N 151.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.3N 151.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z --- 11.6N 151.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z --- 12.3N 149.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 13.9N 148.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z --- 16.1N 146.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z --- 22.4N 144.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 19 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   240000Z --- 30.1N 143.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 11.4N 151.6E.
TROPICAL STORM 27W (TWENTYSEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND 210300Z. REFER
TO TYPHOON 25W (LAN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN
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发布于:2017-10-20 11:51
JTWC/27W/#02/10-20 00Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN33 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 27W (TWENTYSEVEN)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 27W (TWENTYSEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN AREA OF BUILDING CONVECTION CENTRALLY LOCATED OVER A
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 192026Z 27GHZ WINDSAT
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CENTRAL
DEEP CONVECTIVE AREA FROM BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED
ON THE PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 192224Z OSCAT
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE
THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS) AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED OSCAT IMAGE SHOWING 35 AND 40 KNOT WIND BARBS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW
(5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS TRACKING THROUGH WARM
(31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). TS 27W HAS DEVELOPED
A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL THAT IS FLOWING INTO A TUTT CELL. THE
SYSTEM HAS BEEN TRACKING TO THE SOUTH UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND A BUILDING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS CHANGED AS PEAK INTENSITIES HAVE
INCREASED DUE TO A POSSIBLE RAPID INTENSIFICATION SCENARIO.
   B. TS 27W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK MORE NORTH-NORTHWEST
AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS. DUE TO THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
BEING ENHANCED BY THE TUTT CELL, A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION
IS FORECAST TO OCCUR THROUGH TAU 36, PEAKING AT 60 KNOTS. AFTER TAU
48, TS 27W WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES
UNFAVORABLE DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THE RESULT OF
THE SYSTEMS PROXIMITY TO TYPHOON 25W. THE WEAKENING TREND WILL
PERSIST UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS ABSORBED BY TY 25W AROUND TAU 96.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT IN THE LATER TAUS FOR
THE TRACK DIRECTION. THE INITIAL TRACK DIRECTION HAS NOT TURNED TO
THE NORTHWEST AS RAPIDLY AS FORECAST CAUSING UNCERTAINTY IN THE
INITIAL FORECAST TRACK. THIS UNCERTAINTY, COMBINED WITH THE COMPLEX
NATURE OF THE FORECAST TRACK, LENDS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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发布于:2017-10-20 17:20
JTWC/27W/#03/10-20 06Z

图片:wp2717 20171020 0600Z.gif


WTPN33 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 27W (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 003    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   200600Z --- NEAR 11.7N 151.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.7N 151.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z --- 12.0N 151.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z --- 12.5N 150.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z --- 13.0N 148.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z --- 13.4N 147.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z --- 13.8N 147.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 14.3N 146.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 14.9N 145.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 11.8N 151.6E.
TROPICAL STORM 27W (TWENTYSEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 403 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z, 202100Z, 210300Z AND 210900Z. REFER
TO TYPHOON 25W (LAN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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  • wusifeng
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    2017-10-20 19:39
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发布于:2017-10-20 17:21
JTWC/27W/#03/10-20 06Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN33 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 27W (TWENTYSEVEN)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 27W (TWENTYSEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 403 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS
AT THE ONSET A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION PARTIALLY EXPOSED BEFORE
TUCKING INTO THE OVERCAST CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
ON THE MSI LOOP WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD
HIGHER THAN DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS) TO REFLECT THE
SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
WITH A DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO A TUTT CELL TO THE
NORTHEAST. SSTS IN THE AREA AT 31 CELSIUS ARE ALSO CONDUCIVE. THE
CYCLONE IS QUASI-STATIONARY BETWEEN COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCES: A
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS CHANGED TO REFLECT THE VERY SLOW
STORM MOTION, AND CONSEQUENTLY, WEAK INTENSIFICATION.
   B. TS 27W IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STR
GRADUALLY DOMINATES AND ASSUMES STEERING. DESPITE THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS SLOW TO CONSOLIDATE
RESULTING IN A WEAK/FLARING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TS 27W WILL
MAINTAIN A WEAK 35-4O KNOT CENTRAL WIND SPEED UP TO TAU 72.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 27W WILL REMAIN IN A NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY GAINS
LATITUDE AND CONSOLIDATES, THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL IMPROVE AND
PROMOTE STEADY INTENSIFICATION, REACHING 45 KNOTS BY TAU 120 AS THE
CYCLONE APPROACHES SAIPAN. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS WIDELY
SPREAD IN ALL DIRECTIONS, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST.//
NNNN
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t02436
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发布于:2017-10-20 22:30
JTWC/27W/#04/10-20 12Z

图片:wp2717.gif


WTPN33 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 004    
   DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 27W
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   201200Z --- NEAR 11.9N 151.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.9N 151.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z --- 12.3N 150.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 12.7N 149.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z --- 13.0N 148.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z --- 13.3N 147.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   231200Z --- 13.7N 146.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   241200Z --- 14.0N 144.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   251200Z --- 14.4N 143.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 12.0N 151.2E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (TWENTYSEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 395 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z
IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z, 210300Z, 210900Z AND 211500Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 25W (LAN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN
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t02436
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发布于:2017-10-20 22:45
JTWC/27W/#04/10-20 12Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN33 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (TWENTYSEVEN)
WARNING NR 04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 27W (TWENTYSEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 395
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS WEAK FLARING, FRAGMENTED, AND
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION THAT IS OBSCURING AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON AN ELONGATED AND
RAGGED LOW REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 201118Z MICROWAVE
PASS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T2.0 FROM PGTW AND KNES AND REFLECTS THE WEAKENED
CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN AREA OF LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WITH A
DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO A TUTT CELL TO THE
NORTHEAST. SSTS IN THE AREA AT 31 CELSIUS ARE ALSO CONDUCIVE.
HOWEVER, THE CYCLONE IS STRUGGLING TO ORGANIZE AND IS QUASI-
STATIONARY BETWEEN COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCES: A NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 27W IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS THE
STR SLOWLY DOMINATES AND ASSUMES STEERING. DESPITE THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS SLOW TO CONSOLIDATE
RESULTING IN THE WEAK AND FLARING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TD 27W WILL
STRUGGLE AS A WEAK CYCLONE WITH 30-35 KNOT CENTRAL WIND SPEED UP TO
TAU 72.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 27W WILL REMAIN IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TRAJECTORY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. AS THE SYSTEM
SLOWLY GAINS LATITUDE AND CONSOLIDATES, THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL
IMPROVE AND PROMOTE SOME INTENSIFICATION, REACHING 45 KNOTS BY TAU
120 AS THE CYCLONE SKIRTS JUST TO THE NORTH OF GUAM. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT TO A NORTHWEST- TO
SOUTHWEST-WARD TRAJECTORY; HOWEVER, THERE IS A WIDE SPREAD IN
DIRECTION AND SPEED AMONG THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS, LENDING OVERALL LOW
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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发布于:2017-10-21 09:45
JTWC/27W/#05/10-20 18Z

图片:wp2717 20171020 1800Z.gif


WTPN33 PGTW 202100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 005    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   201800Z --- NEAR 12.1N 149.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.1N 149.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z --- 12.4N 148.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z --- 12.6N 147.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z --- 12.7N 146.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 12.7N 145.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 12.9N 143.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z --- 13.4N 141.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z --- 14.1N 139.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 12.2N 149.6E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (TWENTYSEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
201800Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210300Z, 210900Z, 211500Z AND
212100Z. REFER TO SUPER TYPHOON 25W (LAN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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