9914dan
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发布于:2017-10-29 00:00
Tropical Depression Eighteen Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182017
1100 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate
that the low pressure system located over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea has developed a well-defined low-level circulation
center. Satellite imagery also shows more central deep convection
has developed and persisted in the inner-core region since
yesterday.  Based on these data, the disturbance has been upgraded
to Tropical Depression Eighteen.

With the recent redevelopment of the inner-core region this morning,
the initial motion estimate is an uncertain 020/19 kt. The global
models remain in excellent agreement on an approaching frontal
system and deep mid-tropospheric trough accelerating the cyclone
north-northeastward across west-central Cuba today, followed by a
motion toward the northeast tonight and Sunday, with the system
passing about midway between Bermuda and the southeastern United
States in 36-48 hours. The new NHC forecast track is essentially
just an update of the previous advisory due to the good agreement in
the global and consensus models, which lie along or just a tad to
the west of the official forecast track.

The vertical wind shear affecting the cyclone is expected to remain
somewhat favorable for strengthening to occur for the next 24 hours
or so, with the depression expected to become a tropical storm by
tonight.  Thereafter, baroclinic processes associated with the
aforementioned frontal system are forecast to induce some additional
strengthening before the cyclone merges with the frontal system
and becomes an extratropical low by 48 hours. Dissipation is
expected by 72 hours when the system is located over the far North
Atlantic.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. While the forecast track of the center lies about 35 miles
southeast of the Upper Florida Keys and extreme southeast Florida
and most of the winds are expected to remain east of the center,
only a slight deviation to the west of the expected track or an
increase in the size of the wind field could bring tropical-storm-
force winds across these land areas. For that reason, a tropical
storm watch has been issued for these areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/1500Z 20.8N  82.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  29/0000Z 23.0N  81.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  29/1200Z 26.6N  78.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  30/0000Z 31.5N  74.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  30/1200Z 37.5N  69.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  31/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

升格TD,飞机实测发现个明确的中心,同时中心附近集中爆了深对流,较先前更紧凑了一些。

图片:150737_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png



图片:recon_AF307-0218A-INVEST.png



图片:GOES15322017301pu2Zb2.jpg



图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif




图片:bd_lalo-animated.gif

I wanna reset.
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Mitch
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发布于:2017-10-29 13:35
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wwwawa
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发布于:2017-10-29 13:54
已经加强到40kts  但是结构还是像一团浆糊。。。。。
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Mitch
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发布于:2017-10-29 14:11
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wwwawa
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发布于:2017-10-29 20:39
已经登陆了吧 现在在佛州东岸 45kt


图片:two_atl_0d0.png

[wwwawa于2017-10-29 20:40编辑了帖子]
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9914dan
论坛版主-副热带高压
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15楼#
发布于:2017-10-29 23:10
Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182017
1100 AM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017

Philippe looks the best it ever has, possessing a well-defined
low-level center as seen in high-resolution GOES-16 visible
imagery, along with at least 45-kt sustained winds based on several
recent ship reports. However, the cyclone is sheared with the bulk
of the convective cloud shield having been displaced northeast of
the center due to southwesterly mid-/upper-level winds of 45-75 kt.

Although the exact center of Philippe was difficult to track
overnight, the current position is actually on the previous forecast
track. Philippe has been moving due east at about 25-27 kt for the
past few hours. However, the NHC model guidance is in decent
agreement that the cyclone will turn toward the northeast by this
afternoon ahead of an approaching frontal system and a powerful
deep-layer trough moving quickly eastward across the eastern Gulf of
Mexico and Florida. The cold front is currently located only 90-100
nmi west of Philippe's center, and merger with the front along with
transition to a extratropical low pressure system is expected by 12
hours, if not sooner. As the aforementioned trough becomes more
negatively tilted over the next 24 hours, a strong extratropical low
is forecast to develop near or just east of the North Carolina Outer
Banks, pulling Philippe's circulation north-northeastward to
northward in the 12-24-hour period well offshore of the U.S east
coast. Absorption of Philippe's circulation into the larger
extratropical low is expected to be completed by 24 hours when the
larger low is located over New England. The official forecast track
lies to the right of the previous advisory track, mainly due to the
recent eastward jog, and lies along the eastern edge of the guidance
envelope near a blend of the HCCA and TVCN consensus models.

Some additional slight strengthening is possible during the
next 12 hours or so, mainly due weak baroclinic forcing and the
faster forward speed that is forecast. However, most of the
baroclinic energy associated with the negatively tilted mid-latitude
trough is expected to remain to the west, triggering the development
of the above-mentioned significant extratropical coastal low. In
fact, some of the latent heat from Philippe's circulation will
likely get drawn into the larger extratropical low developing to its
northwest, aiding in that intensification process and increasing the
demise of Philippe after 12 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/1500Z 27.8N  77.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  30/0000Z 32.5N  72.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  30/1200Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart

形态达到一生中的最好,不过冷锋侵入,很快就要转温了。

图片:144120_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png



图片:vis_lalo-animated.gif



图片:rbtop_lalo-animated.gif



图片:GOES144220173029hxHsa.jpg

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